Biggest upsets and surprises: Oct 4–Oct 10

Every finished game this week against our pregame projection: the winners we gave the smallest chance, and the scorelines our model said were least likely. 2319 games graded.

Biggest upsets

1. Forks (WA) 31, ADNA 24box scoreWe gave Forks (WA) 2% against ADNA (10/09)
2. Dallas Jesuit 50, Walnut Grove 49box scoreWe gave Dallas Jesuit 2% against Walnut Grove (10/08)
3. Cypress Lake 20, LELY 12box scoreWe gave Cypress Lake 2% against LELY (10/09)
4. Woodland 41, Casa Roble 27box scoreWe gave Woodland 4% against Casa Roble (10/09)
5. Cedar Ridge 35, Lake Travis 34box scoreWe gave Cedar Ridge 4% against Lake Travis (10/09)
6. Portola 14, Hamilton 12box scoreWe gave Portola 6% against Hamilton (10/09)
7. Chaparral 29, Douglas County 27box scoreWe gave Chaparral 6% against Douglas County (10/09)
8. Highlands 40, Woodland Christian 34box scoreWe gave Highlands 6% against Woodland Christian (10/09)
9. Cigarroa 13, Pioneer 10box scoreWe gave Cigarroa 7% against Pioneer (10/09)
10. The St. James Performance Academy Grey 32, St. Frances Academy 28box scoreWe gave The St. James Performance Academy Grey 7% against St. Frances Academy (10/10)
11. Brackenridge 47, Lanier 22box scoreWe gave Brackenridge 9% against Lanier (10/09)
12. Paramus Catholic 31, Bergen Catholic 17box scoreWe gave Paramus Catholic 10% against Bergen Catholic (10/10)
13. Rancho San Juan 35, Santa Cruz 27box scoreWe gave Rancho San Juan 11% against Santa Cruz (10/08)
14. Tulia 54, Olton 36box scoreWe gave Tulia 11% against Olton (10/09)
15. Duluth 22, Hebron Christian 19box scoreWe gave Duluth 11% against Hebron Christian (10/09)
16. Fca Bucks 35, NVHS 24box scoreWe gave Fca Bucks 11% against NVHS (10/10)
17. Hallsville 34, Marshall 27box scoreWe gave Hallsville 12% against Marshall (10/09)
18. Meridian 21, Mountain View 14box scoreWe gave Meridian 13% against Mountain View (10/09)
19. Anderson-Shiro 42, Lexington 33box scoreWe gave Anderson-Shiro 14% against Lexington (10/09)
20. Hebbronville 43, Cotulla 22box scoreWe gave Hebbronville 14% against Cotulla (10/09)
21. Woodstock 28, ROME 12box scoreWe gave Woodstock 14% against ROME (10/09)
22. New Waverly 23, Woodville 22box scoreWe gave New Waverly 15% against Woodville (10/09)
23. Hardin 25, Newton 24box scoreWe gave Hardin 15% against Newton (10/09)
24. Williams 29, Maxwell 19box scoreWe gave Williams 16% against Maxwell (10/09)
25. West Wendover 35, Battle Mountain 32box scoreWe gave West Wendover 16% against Battle Mountain (10/09)

Wildest scorelines

1. Haskell 92, Munday 48box score140+ total points (we said 66): under 1%
2. Whitney 2, Keene 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 68): under 1%
3. Dallas Christian 1, Prince Of Peace 0box score1 or fewer total points (we said 64): under 1%
4. Joseph City 1, Red Rock 0box score1 or fewer total points (we said 64): under 1%
5. Branson 2, Swett 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 64): under 1%
6. Marietta 70, Etowah 48box score118+ total points (we said 57): under 1%
7. Kings Christian 2, Maricopa 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 63): under 1%
8. Waller 73, Cypress Springs 48box score121+ total points (we said 60): under 1%
9. TIVY 79, Taylor 56box score135+ total points (we said 76): under 1%
10. Nansemond-Suffolk Academy 51, Catholic 48box score99+ total points (we said 40): under 1%
11. Lake Hamilton 63, Russellville 50box score113+ total points (we said 55): under 1%
12. Grant 73, Buckeye 41box score114+ total points (we said 59): under 1%
13. Mammoth 2, ACE 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 57): under 1%
14. St. Mary Central Catholic 1, Kennedy Catholic 0box score1 or fewer total points (we said 55): under 1%
15. Johnson 1, Dominion Christian 0box score1 or fewer total points (we said 54): under 1%

Odds are from our pregame projection for each game. Follow a team to get these after its games, and our projection before them.