Every team's projected win total entering the season, against what it has actually won.
Before the season, our model projected every team's win total from what it knew going in: last season and earlier, nothing from this one. Each game on the schedule got a win chance, and the projected win total adds them up. Wins vs projection compares a team's wins so far with what that projection expected in the same games, so a team that was a coin flip in eight games and won all eight is +4. Regular season only. Teams with fewer than six games on file from the season before are left out, since their projection would reflect our missing data more than the team. This season's projection was rebuilt in October from what was knowable before the first game.
| # | TEAM | PROJECTED WINS | RECORD | EXPECTED SO FAR | WINS VS PROJECTION | MOST UNLIKELY WIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame | 2.9 | 8-1 | 2.4 | +5.6 | Costa Mesa (3%) |
| 2 | Johnson | 3.2 | 8-0 | 2.7 | +5.3 | Fairfield (2%) |
| 3 | Hill | 1.5 | 6-2 | 1.0 | +5.0 | El Camino (2%) |
| 4 | Escondido Charter | 3.6 | 8-1 | 3.0 | +5.0 | Army-Navy (3%) |
| 5 | Marshall | 4.2 | 9-0 | 4.1 | +4.9 | Marquez (16%) |
| 6 | Montclair | 3.7 | 8-1 | 3.3 | +4.7 | Rowland (10%) |
| 7 | San Juan Hills | 3.7 | 8-1 | 3.6 | +4.4 | Yorba Linda (23%) |
| 8 | Cypress | 5.1 | 9-1 | 4.6 | +4.4 | Torrance (15%) |
| 9 | Chavez | 2.7 | 7-3 | 2.7 | +4.3 | Granite Hills (20%) |
| 10 | Millennium | 2.1 | 6-1 | 1.7 | +4.3 | Delta (7%) |
| 11 | Huntington Beach | 5.1 | 9-0 | 4.7 | +4.3 | Yorba Linda (46%) |
| 12 | Bellarmine College Prep | 0.8 | 5-3 | 0.7 | +4.3 | Archbishop Mitty (1%) |
| 13 | Redwood | 4.2 | 8-1 | 3.8 | +4.2 | Menlo School (26%) |
| 14 | Bell | 3.8 | 8-2 | 3.8 | +4.2 | Eagle Rock (6%) |
| 15 | Francis Parker | 3.9 | 8-0 | 3.9 | +4.1 | Borrego Springs (37%) |
| 16 | Patrick Henry | 5.7 | 9-0 | 5.0 | +4.0 | Mount Miguel (41%) |
| 17 | Half Moon Bay | 5.2 | 8-0 | 4.0 | +4.0 | Woodside (40%) |
| 18 | Citrus Valley | 4.2 | 8-1 | 4.0 | +4.0 | Upland (40%) |
| 19 | Mckinleyville | 2.5 | 6-2 | 2.1 | +3.9 | Ferndale (2%) |
| 20 | Cloverdale | 3.2 | 7-1 | 3.1 | +3.9 | St. Helena (13%) |
| 21 | River Islands | 3.5 | 7-2 | 3.1 | +3.9 | Summerville (1%) |
| 22 | De La Salle | 5.4 | 8-0 | 4.1 | +3.9 | Centennial (32%) |
| 23 | Whitney | 2.6 | 6-2 | 2.2 | +3.8 | Twelve Bridges (10%) |
| 24 | Loara | 4.7 | 8-1 | 4.2 | +3.8 | La Quinta (33%) |
| 25 | Poly | 4.5 | 8-1 | 4.3 | +3.7 | North Hollywood (23%) |
| 26 | Bishop Amat | 4.3 | 8-1 | 4.3 | +3.7 | Oak Hills (36%) |
| 27 | San Marino | 5.8 | 9-0 | 5.3 | +3.7 | Maranatha (49%) |
| 28 | Temecula Valley | 4.8 | 8-1 | 4.3 | +3.7 | King (44%) |
| 29 | Montgomery | 3.8 | 7-2 | 3.3 | +3.7 | Sonoma Valley (13%) |
| 30 | East Nicolaus | 5.8 | 9-0 | 5.3 | +3.7 | Winters (36%) |
| 31 | Foothill | 5.0 | 7-1 | 3.4 | +3.6 | Woodland Christian (5%) |
| 32 | Napa | 3.0 | 6-2 | 2.4 | +3.6 | San Rafael (15%) |
| 33 | Pacifica | 4.9 | 8-1 | 4.4 | +3.6 | Marina (39%) |
| 34 | Ocean View | 4.9 | 8-1 | 4.4 | +3.6 | Costa Mesa (30%) |
| 35 | Cleveland | 6.2 | 9-0 | 5.4 | +3.6 | Birmingham (32%) |
| 36 | Etna | 3.8 | 7-1 | 3.4 | +3.6 | Los Molinos (14%) |
| 37 | Rubidoux | 4.8 | 8-1 | 4.4 | +3.6 | Vasquez (38%) |
| 38 | Royal | 5.0 | 8-1 | 4.4 | +3.6 | Santa Paula (43%) |
| 39 | Independence | 5.4 | 8-1 | 4.4 | +3.6 | Piedmont Hills (21%) |
| 40 | Analy | 5.7 | 8-0 | 4.5 | +3.5 | Maria Carrillo (49%) |
| 41 | Pomona | 3.5 | 7-3 | 3.5 | +3.5 | Rialto (4%) |
| 42 | Helix | 3.9 | 7-2 | 3.6 | +3.4 | Imperial (32%) |
| 43 | Destiny Christian Academy | 6.0 | 8-0 | 4.6 | +3.4 | Grant (28%) |
| 44 | Mary Star Of The Sea | 5.8 | 9-0 | 5.6 | +3.4 | St. Monica (37%) |
| 45 | Hilmar | 6.2 | 9-0 | 5.6 | +3.4 | Palma (33%) |
| 46 | Branson | 4.6 | 7-0 | 3.6 | +3.4 | Crystal Springs Uplands (27%) |
| 47 | Justin-Siena | 3.4 | 6-2 | 2.6 | +3.4 | Sonoma Valley (7%) |
| 48 | Bonita | 6.4 | 9-0 | 5.6 | +3.4 | Northview (44%) |
| 49 | Palos Verdes | 5.1 | 8-1 | 4.7 | +3.3 | Carson (39%) |
| 50 | Monte Vista | 5.1 | 8-1 | 4.7 | +3.3 | California (45%) |
See also: this week's biggest upsets.
