Biggest upsets and surprises: Sep 27–Oct 3

Every finished game this week against our pregame projection: the winners we gave the smallest chance, and the scorelines our model said were least likely. 2138 games graded.

Biggest upsets

1. Southern Guilford 57, Northeast Guilford 0box scoreWe gave Southern Guilford 1% against Northeast Guilford (10/02)
2. Roanoke Catholic 18, St. Frances Academy 2box scoreWe gave Roanoke Catholic 1% against St. Frances Academy (10/02)
3. Dunedin 29, Largo 22box scoreWe gave Dunedin 2% against Largo (10/02)
4. Trinity-Pawling School 28, St. Paul's 27box scoreWe gave Trinity-Pawling School 3% against St. Paul's (10/03)
5. Pebble Hills 35, Eastwood 31box scoreWe gave Pebble Hills 4% against Eastwood (10/01)
6. C.H. Yoe 43, Franklin 42box scoreWe gave C.H. Yoe 5% against Franklin (10/02)
7. Corona 2, KING 0box scoreWe gave Corona 6% against KING (10/02)
8. Bradwell Institute 57, Brunswick 49box scoreWe gave Bradwell Institute 7% against Brunswick (10/02)
9. Shenandoah Valley 33, Minersville 28box scoreWe gave Shenandoah Valley 8% against Minersville (10/02)
10. River Islands 37, Summerville 17box scoreWe gave River Islands 8% against Summerville (10/02)
11. Coleman 30, Morrice 28box scoreWe gave Coleman 8% against Morrice (10/02)
12. Gabrielino 2, Pasadena 0box scoreWe gave Gabrielino 10% against Pasadena (10/02)
13. Aubrey Rogers 47, LELY 6box scoreWe gave Aubrey Rogers 10% against LELY (10/02)
14. Corona Del Sol 35, Ala - Queen Creek 28box scoreWe gave Corona Del Sol 11% against Ala - Queen Creek (10/02)
15. Bellarmine College Prep 10, Archbishop Mitty 7box scoreWe gave Bellarmine College Prep 11% against Archbishop Mitty (10/02)
16. Hubbard 35, Wortham 26box scoreWe gave Hubbard 11% against Wortham (10/02)
17. El Camino 20, Dixon 14box scoreWe gave El Camino 12% against Dixon (10/02)
18. Galesburg 56, Quincy 42box scoreWe gave Galesburg 14% against Quincy (10/02)
19. Firestone 2, Buchtel 0box scoreWe gave Firestone 15% against Buchtel (10/02)
20. Classical Academy 33, Army-Navy 14box scoreWe gave Classical Academy 16% against Army-Navy (10/01)
21. Jimtown 27, KNOX 20box scoreWe gave Jimtown 17% against KNOX (10/02)
22. Hearne 21, Granger 7box scoreWe gave Hearne 17% against Granger (10/02)
23. Rancho San Juan 29, Gonzales 28box scoreWe gave Rancho San Juan 17% against Gonzales (10/02)
24. Elk Rapids 26, Boyne City 6box scoreWe gave Elk Rapids 17% against Boyne City (10/02)
25. Phelps 62, Betsy Layne 32box scoreWe gave Phelps 17% against Betsy Layne (10/01)

Wildest scorelines

1. Dryden 84, Byron 66box score150+ total points (we said 65): under 1%
2. Green Valley 82, Silverado 52box score134+ total points (we said 54): under 1%
3. Peaster 76, Hillsboro 49box score125+ total points (we said 55): under 1%
4. South Fork 2, Roseland University Prep 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 70): under 1%
5. Palmer 2, Keene 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 67): under 1%
6. Bushland 70, Slaton 55box score125+ total points (we said 60): under 1%
7. Gilmour Academy 59, Ccchs 42box score101+ total points (we said 43): under 1%
8. Mira Loma 1, West Campus 0box score1 or fewer total points (we said 56): under 1%
9. Del Valle 69, Akins 0box scoreWon by 69+: under 1%
10. Verdugo Hills 54, Monroe 47box score101+ total points (we said 46): under 1%
11. CATE 0, Orcutt Academy 0box score0 or fewer total points (we said 54): under 1%
12. Acchs 58, Emmaus 37box score95+ total points (we said 41): under 1%
13. Lamar 2, Bellaire 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 55): under 1%
14. Chandler 2, Cactus Canyon 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 55): under 1%
15. Cardinal Gibbons 63, Felton Grove 0box scoreWon by 63+: under 1%

Odds are from our pregame projection for each game. Follow a team to get these after its games, and our projection before them.