Biggest upsets and surprises: Sep 20–Sep 26

Every finished game this week against our pregame projection: the winners we gave the smallest chance, and the scorelines our model said were least likely. 2098 games graded.

Biggest upsets

1. Valley View 42, Blue Ridge 21box scoreWe gave Valley View 2% against Blue Ridge (09/25)
2. Central Cambria 15, Penn Cambria 14box scoreWe gave Central Cambria 3% against Penn Cambria (09/25)
3. Central 34, Casa Grande 0box scoreWe gave Central 6% against Casa Grande (09/25)
4. Life Oak Cliff 42, Dallas Christian 35box scoreWe gave Life Oak Cliff 6% against Dallas Christian (09/25)
5. Shenandoah Valley 45, Marian Catholic 26box scoreWe gave Shenandoah Valley 7% against Marian Catholic (09/26)
6. Dimond 28, Juneau-Douglas 27box scoreWe gave Dimond 7% against Juneau-Douglas (09/26)
7. South Forsyth 42, Lambert 35box scoreWe gave South Forsyth 9% against Lambert (09/24)
8. Wilmer-Hutchins 54, Lincoln 42box scoreWe gave Wilmer-Hutchins 10% against Lincoln (09/25)
9. Keller Central 47, Byron Nelson 34box scoreWe gave Keller Central 10% against Byron Nelson (09/24)
10. Cortez 26, Camp Verde 21box scoreWe gave Cortez 11% against Camp Verde (09/25)
11. Liberty 29, Hargrave 28box scoreWe gave Liberty 12% against Hargrave (09/25)
12. Mira Monte 29, Village Christian 14box scoreWe gave Mira Monte 12% against Village Christian (09/25)
13. Northbrook 2, Westbury 0box scoreWe gave Northbrook 12% against Westbury (09/26)
14. Mountain Pointe 34, Desert Edge 27box scoreWe gave Mountain Pointe 13% against Desert Edge (09/25)
15. St. Andrew's 35, Trinity Valley 20box scoreWe gave St. Andrew's 13% against Trinity Valley (09/25)
16. Riverside 51, Seminole 48box scoreWe gave Riverside 14% against Seminole (09/25)
17. Buena 38, Marana 28box scoreWe gave Buena 14% against Marana (09/25)
18. Ala - Mesa North 35, Crismon 21box scoreWe gave Ala - Mesa North 14% against Crismon (09/24)
19. Owen J. Roberts 35, Pope John Paul Ii 7box scoreWe gave Owen J. Roberts 14% against Pope John Paul Ii (09/25)
20. Industrial 47, Tidehaven 14box scoreWe gave Industrial 14% against Tidehaven (09/25)
21. Skyridge 37, Corner Canyon 27box scoreWe gave Skyridge 15% against Corner Canyon (09/25)
22. Northgate 21, South Side 20box scoreWe gave Northgate 16% against South Side (09/25)
23. San Elizario 14, Irvin 13box scoreWe gave San Elizario 16% against Irvin (09/25)
24. St. Anthony's 35, Xavier 27box scoreWe gave St. Anthony's 16% against Xavier (09/25)
25. Johnson 31, Fairfield 0box scoreWe gave Johnson 16% against Fairfield (09/25)

Wildest scorelines

1. Scott County 71, Collins 60box score131+ total points (we said 59): under 1%
2. Mcallen Memorial 75, Rio Grande City 49box score124+ total points (we said 57): under 1%
3. Laurel 84, Summit Academy 0box scoreWon by 84+: under 1%
4. Priory 2, Potter Valley 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 66): under 1%
5. Junction 63, Harper 55box score118+ total points (we said 55): under 1%
6. Tyler Legacy 77, HORN 55box score132+ total points (we said 70): under 1%
7. Western Scitech 69, MIT 47box score116+ total points (we said 55): under 1%
8. CODY 70, Jackson Hole 41box score111+ total points (we said 53): under 1%
9. Father Lopez 1, Gateway Charter 0box score1 or fewer total points (we said 59): under 1%
10. Munday 62, Archer City 51box score113+ total points (we said 57): under 1%
11. Redding Christian 0, WEED 0box score0 or fewer total points (we said 54): under 1%
12. Trona 2, Pal Academy 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 57): under 1%
13. ETNA 67, Esparto 0box scoreWon by 67+: under 1%
14. Chinle 72, Winslow 6box scoreWon by 66+: under 1%
15. Chester 1, Dunbar Crimson 0box score1 or fewer total points (we said 53): under 1%

Odds are from our pregame projection for each game. Follow a team to get these after its games, and our projection before them.