Biggest upsets and surprises: Oct 11–Oct 17

Every finished game this week against our pregame projection: the winners we gave the smallest chance, and the scorelines our model said were least likely. 2379 games graded.

Biggest upsets

1. Magnolia West 18, Klein Collins 15box scoreWe gave Magnolia West 2% against Klein Collins (10/16)
2. Mingus 34, Mohave 12box scoreWe gave Mingus 2% against Mohave (10/16)
3. Oxford 27, Bayard Rustin 15box scoreWe gave Oxford 2% against Bayard Rustin (10/16)
4. Floresville 34, La Vernia 28box scoreWe gave Floresville 2% against La Vernia (10/16)
5. WINN 27, JAY 7box scoreWe gave WINN 6% against JAY (10/16)
6. Sierra 43, Fresno Christian 24box scoreWe gave Sierra 6% against Fresno Christian (10/16)
7. Brookwood 15, SCA 12box scoreWe gave Brookwood 7% against SCA (10/16)
8. Tenaha 40, MT. Enterprise 18box scoreWe gave Tenaha 8% against MT. Enterprise (10/16)
9. Brackenridge 21, Burbank 14box scoreWe gave Brackenridge 8% against Burbank (10/15)
10. Bucktail 20, Coudersport 13box scoreWe gave Bucktail 9% against Coudersport (10/16)
11. Fredericksburg 36, Davenport 31box scoreWe gave Fredericksburg 10% against Davenport (10/16)
12. Wildfire Hsa 42, Varsity Opponent 0box scoreWe gave Wildfire Hsa 10% against Varsity Opponent (10/17)
13. Calistoga 39, Potter Valley 6box scoreWe gave Calistoga 10% against Potter Valley (10/16)
14. Frisco 33, Celina 20box scoreWe gave Frisco 11% against Celina (10/16)
15. Apollo Ridge 28, Steel Valley 7box scoreWe gave Apollo Ridge 12% against Steel Valley (10/16)
16. LEON 38, Lincoln 31box scoreWe gave LEON 12% against Lincoln (10/16)
17. Midwood 30, Truman 6box scoreWe gave Midwood 12% against Truman (10/17)
18. Pequea Valley 13, Lancaster Catholic 0box scoreWe gave Pequea Valley 13% against Lancaster Catholic (10/16)
19. Bellefonte 16, Richland 13box scoreWe gave Bellefonte 13% against Richland (10/16)
20. Hubbard 7, Frost 3box scoreWe gave Hubbard 14% against Frost (10/16)
21. Rio Linda 25, Casa Roble 22box scoreWe gave Rio Linda 14% against Casa Roble (10/16)
22. Sanford-Fritch 62, Sunray 60box scoreWe gave Sanford-Fritch 14% against Sunray (10/16)
23. Oakland 24, Mcclymonds 19box scoreWe gave Oakland 14% against Mcclymonds (10/16)
24. Centennial 27, Liberty 24box scoreWe gave Centennial 15% against Liberty (10/16)
25. Memphis University School 42, Memphis Central 21box scoreWe gave Memphis University School 15% against Memphis Central (10/16)

Wildest scorelines

1. Wayne Preparatory Academy (goldsboro, NC) 2, Northeast Academy 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 68): under 1%
2. San Manuel 82, Baboquivari 0box scoreWon by 82+: under 1%
3. Desert 0, Mojave 0box score0 or fewer total points (we said 62): under 1%
4. Valley Christian Academy 2, Coastal Christian 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 61): under 1%
5. Groesbeck 2, Keene 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 59): under 1%
6. Johnson 95, Akins 0box scoreWon by 95+: under 1%
7. Sulphur Springs 69, Paris 49box score118+ total points (we said 63): under 1%
8. Prescott 69, Flagstaff 41box score110+ total points (we said 55): under 1%
9. Maryvale 2, Alhambra 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 55): under 1%
10. Ocean View 54, Anaheim 42box score96+ total points (we said 44): under 1%
11. Eastern Hills 64, Dunbar 0box scoreWon by 64+: under 1%
12. Cocoa Beach 1, Legacy Charter 0box score1 or fewer total points (we said 52): under 1%
13. Canterbury 1, Gateway Charter 0box score1 or fewer total points (we said 52): under 1%
14. Santa Cruz Valley 0, Desert Christian 0box score0 or fewer total points (we said 51): under 1%
15. Founders Classical Academy 2, Austin Crusaders Homeschool 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 52): under 1%

Odds are from our pregame projection for each game. Follow a team to get these after its games, and our projection before them.