Biggest upsets and surprises: Sep 13–Sep 19

Every finished game this week against our pregame projection: the winners we gave the smallest chance, and the scorelines our model said were least likely. 793 games graded.

Biggest upsets

1. Waxahachie 63, Lake Ridge 27box scoreWe gave Waxahachie 1% against Lake Ridge (09/18)
2. Boulder City 24, Sierra Vista 19box scoreWe gave Boulder City 1% against Sierra Vista (09/18)
3. Dripping Springs 62, Harker Heights 28box scoreWe gave Dripping Springs 2% against Harker Heights (09/18)
4. HILL 59, Del Mar 20box scoreWe gave HILL 4% against Del Mar (09/18)
5. Del Oro 45, Foothill 6box scoreWe gave Del Oro 6% against Foothill (09/18)
6. Watsonville 13, Stevenson 7box scoreWe gave Watsonville 10% against Stevenson (09/19)
7. Maryvale 30, Eastmark 24box scoreWe gave Maryvale 10% against Eastmark (09/18)
8. Twentynine Palms 28, Big Bear 21box scoreWe gave Twentynine Palms 11% against Big Bear (09/18)
9. Cosumnes Oaks 41, Sacramento 0box scoreWe gave Cosumnes Oaks 13% against Sacramento (09/19)
10. North 2, Garces Memorial 0box scoreWe gave North 13% against Garces Memorial (09/18)
11. Lovejoy 30, All Saints 28box scoreWe gave Lovejoy 15% against All Saints (09/17)
12. Calvert Hall 27, La Salle College 14box scoreWe gave Calvert Hall 16% against La Salle College (09/19)
13. Newark Memorial 24, Alameda 14box scoreWe gave Newark Memorial 17% against Alameda (09/18)
14. Nederland 22, Almeta Crawford 21box scoreWe gave Nederland 18% against Almeta Crawford (09/18)
15. Brazos 28, Ganado 25box scoreWe gave Brazos 18% against Ganado (09/18)
16. Desert 42, Trona 22box scoreWe gave Desert 18% against Trona (09/18)
17. Ala - Mesa North 26, Payson 14box scoreWe gave Ala - Mesa North 19% against Payson (09/18)
18. Golden 42, Dakota Ridge 27box scoreWe gave Golden 21% against Dakota Ridge (09/18)
19. Marshall 28, Marquez 27box scoreWe gave Marshall 22% against Marquez (09/18)
20. Prospect 30, Overfelt 22box scoreWe gave Prospect 23% against Overfelt (09/18)
21. Cordova 27, Rio Americano 21box scoreWe gave Cordova 24% against Rio Americano (09/18)
22. New Utrecht 35, Frank J. Macchiarola 28box scoreWe gave New Utrecht 26% against Frank J. Macchiarola (09/18)
23. Williston Northampton 23, Tabor Academy 14box scoreWe gave Williston Northampton 26% against Tabor Academy (09/19)
24. Az Compass Prep 41, The St. James Performance Academy Grey 28box scoreWe gave Az Compass Prep 26% against The St. James Performance Academy Grey (09/18)
25. Calallen 45, Sinton 31box scoreWe gave Calallen 27% against Sinton (09/18)

Wildest scorelines

1. Castlemont 68, Saint Mary's 50box score118+ total points (we said 46): under 1%
2. San Pasqual Valley 1, Tonopah Valley 0box score1 or fewer total points (we said 58): under 1%
3. South Fork 94, Elite 12box scoreWon by 82+: under 1%
4. SHCA 2, Legacy College Prep 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 55): under 1%
5. Mira Loma 72, Florin 6box scoreWon by 66+: under 1%
6. Montabella 65, Coleman 7box scoreWon by 58+: under 1%
7. Cerritos 2, Contreras 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 50): under 1%
8. Cerritos 2, Contreras 0box score2 or fewer total points (we said 50): under 1%
9. Hollister 0, Alisal 0box score0 or fewer total points (we said 48): under 1%
10. Grossmont 54, Otay Ranch 45box score99+ total points (we said 52): under 1%
11. Rockwall 69, HORN 48box score117+ total points (we said 70): under 1%
12. Cactus 56, Peoria 0box scoreWon by 56+: under 1%
13. Chadwick 1, Usc Hybrid 0box score1 or fewer total points (we said 47): under 1%
14. San Marino 70, Ganesha 0box scoreWon by 70+: under 1%
15. Benjamin Franklin 79, Seton Catholic 0box scoreWon by 79+: under 1%

Odds are from our pregame projection for each game. Follow a team to get these after its games, and our projection before them.