In short: Fairfield Falcons high school football (Fairfield, CA), 2026 season: 1-7. Last game: L 7-34 vs River Valley on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Burbank, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The number to watch when Fairfield meets Burbank is Fairfield's scoring. Fairfield averaged 1.8 points per game over its first 4 games (0-4), #152 in Section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (1-3), the Falcons have averaged 12.2 points per game, a 600% rise, #123 in Section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fairfield's last 4 opponents have averaged 26.8 points per game, a #84 scoring defense in Section on the season, against 21.7 points per game, #55 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (26.8 points per game), Fairfield scored 54% less than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #110 in Section, well below the first 4 (#63), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Burbank's defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Titans have allowed 32.5 points per game over their last 4 games (1-3), #109 in Section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in Section (24.6 points per game on the season, which would rank #83). Against those norms, Burbank allowed 32% more than those offenses usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #113 in Section, a lower level of competition. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Fairfield.
The turnover battle could decide Fairfield's next game, against Burbank, and the recent returns favor Fairfield. Fairfield forced 0.8 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (0-4), #112 in Section through those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (1-3), the Falcons have forced 1.8 takeaways per game, a 133% rise, #33 in Section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fairfield's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.8 per game, a #114 offense in Section on the season, against 1.3 per game, #82 for the first 4. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #110 in Section, well below the first 4 (#63), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Burbank's ball security has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Titans have committed 1.3 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (1-3), #84 in Section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in Section (1.4 per game on the season, which would rank #69). Against those norms, Burbank turned it over 6% less than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #113 in Section, a lower level of competition. Burbank offers Fairfield a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
NOTES
Fairfield's ground game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Fairfield averaged 3.4 yards per carry (739 yards on 217 rushes) on the season, #133 in Section, but that number is boosted by a 236-yard game on 26 rushes against Davis SR. on 10/9. In all other games, Fairfield is at 2.6 yards per carry (503 yards on 191 rushes), a figure that would rank #138 in Section. Context matters here: Davis SR.'s run defense ranks among the weakest in Section (8.8 yards per carry, #138 of 152), so that game says more about the opponent than about the unit itself. Against Burbank, Fairfield draws a middle-of-the-pack run defense (6.5 yards per carry, #87), so expect something closer to the 2.6 version.
The biggest shift in Fairfield's season has come in its offense. The Falcons averaged 3.0 yards per play (536 yards on 178 snaps) over their first 4 games (0-4), #142 in Section within that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (1-3), Fairfield has averaged 5.3 yards per play (833 yards on 158 snaps), a 75% rise, #116 in Section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fairfield's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.5 yards per play, a #93 defense in Section on the season, against 6.1 yards per play, #35 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.5 yards per play), Fairfield gained 29% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #110 in Section, well below the first 4 (#63), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Falcons rank #137 in Section in yards per play. Burbank's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #95 in Section (7.6 yards per play).
Fairfield allowed 35.0 points per game over its first 4 games (0-4), #123 in Section during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 4 games since that slow start (1-3), the Falcons have allowed 25.2 points per game, a 28% drop, #70 in Section during that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fairfield's last 4 opponents have averaged 25.8 points per game, a #77 offense in Section on the season, against 30.4 points per game, #59 for the first 4. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #110 in Section, well below the first 4 (#63), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Fairfield ranks #102 in Section in scoring defense. The trend lines up well against Burbank, whose offense ranks just #131 of 152 (13.4 points per game).
TIDBITS (9 found)
• Club Fairfield has lost 2 straight, and a loss would make it 3 in a row. The last time they lost 3 or more in a row was 2025, a run of 6.
• Club Fairfield has gone 9 straight games committing 1+ turnover (November 14, 2025 through October 23, 2026), going 1-8 over that stretch, a school-record 9 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Fairfield has gone 8 straight games being held under 200 passing yards (August 28, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 1-7 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2023 (12 games).
• Player Hezekiah Rainey has 352 rushing yards over his last 3 games (117.3 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Lucas Pace has 41 tackles over his last 5 games (8.2 a game, September 25, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- his most in a 5-game stretch on record.
• Player Breon Sparrow has never had a game rushing for 100+ yards for Fairfield, over a 17-game career on record. His career high is 69, set September 4, 2026 against Enterprise (L, 7-54).
• Player Breon Sparrow has never had a game recording 100+ receiving yards for Fairfield, over a 17-game career on record. His career high is 85, set September 4, 2026 against Enterprise (L, 7-54).
• Player Josiah Allen has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for Fairfield, over a 16-game career on record. His career high is 6, set September 12, 2025 against Rodriguez (W, 20-14).
• Player Josiah Allen has gone 6 straight games without recording two or more tackles for loss. The last time he had two tackles for loss was October 31, 2025 against Armijo (W, 40-13) — 2 tackles for loss.
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Fairfield has played a middle-of-the-road schedule in the pool so far (#93 of 152), and what is left is one of the softest slates (#148 of 151): the hard part is behind it.
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#93 of 152
avg opponent rating -2.4 over 8 games · 0 vs top-25 CIF Sac-Joaquin Section
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#148 of 151
avg opponent rating -22.5 over 2 games · 0 vs top-25
@Rodriguez L 0-28@Enterpri… L 7-54WOOD L 0-27Johnson L 0-31@Foothill L 7-31Davis SR. W 21-18@Kennedy L 14-18@River Va… L 7-34BurbankArmijo
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
MILESTONE WATCH
Fairfield
Hezekiah Rainey needs 32 rushing yards for 500 (averaging 58.5 a game)
Lucas Pace needs 5 tackles for 75 (averaging 8.8 a game)
Brian Ponce needs 7 tackles for 50 (averaging 6.1 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 23 game; last updated Oct 28; roster and numbers checked Sep 10.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 5/8, sacks allowed 6/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 11.8/100 (-98 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 7.5/100 (-128 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 42.4/100 (+7 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 45.3/100 (+6 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
FAI finished 2025 at 5-6. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 40-13 over ARMIJO (ARMIJO finished 40% that season). Toughest loss: 38-42 to WOOD (4-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
FAI HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• FAI rushes for 150+ yards (.750), but most recently lost to Kennedy when doing so
• FAI holds its opponents under 100 rushing yards (.667), but most recently lost to Foothill when doing so
FAI — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (29 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-8
.000
3.5
Scores 10-19
0-5
.000
13.6
Scores 20-29
4-4
.500
23.4
Scores 30-39
0-2
.000
36.5
Scores 40+
6-0
1.000
46.7
FAI — OFFENSE — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
0-2
.000
10.5
L2
YPA < 8.0
1-5
.167
5.8
W1
Pass Yds 200+
--
--
--
--
Pass Yds < 200
1-7
.125
7.0
L2
Rush Yds 100+
1-2
.333
14.0
L1
Rush Yds < 100
0-5
.000
2.8
L5
Rush Yds 150+
1-1
.500
17.5
L1
Rush Yds < 150
0-6
.000
3.5
L6
YPC 5.0+
1-1
.500
17.5
L1
YPC < 5.0
0-6
.000
3.5
L6
YPP 6.0+
1-0
1.000
21.0
W1
YPP < 6.0
0-7
.000
5.0
L7
YPP 7.0+
1-0
1.000
21.0
W1
YPP < 7.0
0-7
.000
5.0
L7
Turnovers 1+
1-7
.125
7.0
L2
Turnovers < 1
--
--
--
--
Turnovers 2+
0-6
.000
5.8
L6
Turnovers > 2
0-3
.000
4.7
L3
FAI — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-6
.000
3.5
Scores 10-19
0-1
.000
14.0
Scores 20-29
1-0
1.000
21.0
Scores 30-39
--
--
--
Scores 40+
--
--
--
FAI — DEFENSE — 2024-26 (29 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
0-10
.000
40.4
L10
YPA < 8.0
2-4
.333
23.2
L2
13 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
0-5
.000
44.0
L5
Pass Yds < 200
2-9
.182
29.4
L5
13 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
0-13
.000
37.8
L13
Rush Yds < 100
2-1
.667
17.0
L1
13 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
0-10
.000
39.7
L10
Rush Yds < 150
2-4
.333
24.3
L2
13 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
0-11
.000
38.5
L11
YPC < 5.0
2-3
.400
23.8
L1
13 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
0-12
.000
38.5
L12
YPP < 6.0
2-2
.500
20.2
L1
13 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
0-8
.000
42.0
L8
YPP < 7.0
2-6
.250
25.9
L3
13 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
2-7
.222
28.7
L2
Turnovers < 1
1-9
.100
34.9
L3
10 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 2+
2-3
.400
23.6
L2
10 games without this stat on file
Turnovers > 2
0-1
.000
34.0
L1
10 games without this stat on file
FAI — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (29 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
3-0
1.000
5.3
Allows 10-19
6-1
.857
14.7
Allows 20-29
1-5
.167
25.3
Allows 30-39
0-8
.000
32.4
Allows 40+
0-5
.000
55.8
FAI — DEFENSE — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
0-4
.000
37.5
L4
YPA < 8.0
0-1
.000
27.0
L1
3 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
0-1
.000
31.0
L1
Pass Yds < 200
0-4
.000
36.5
L4
3 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
0-4
.000
36.5
L4
Rush Yds < 100
0-1
.000
31.0
L1
3 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
0-3
.000
39.7
L3
Rush Yds < 150
0-2
.000
29.0
L2
3 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
0-4
.000
36.5
L4
YPC < 5.0
0-1
.000
31.0
L1
3 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
0-4
.000
37.5
L4
YPP < 6.0
0-1
.000
27.0
L1
3 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
0-3
.000
38.7
L3
YPP < 7.0
0-2
.000
30.5
L2
3 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
1-5
.167
30.3
L2
Turnovers < 1
0-2
.000
29.5
L2
Turnovers 2+
1-2
.333
23.3
L2
Turnovers > 2
0-1
.000
34.0
L1
FAI — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
--
--
--
Allows 10-19
1-1
.500
18.0
Allows 20-29
0-2
.000
27.5
Allows 30-39
0-3
.000
32.0
Allows 40+
0-1
.000
54.0
ON THE BRINK
FAIRFIELD
• FAIRFIELD has forced 2+ turnovers in 3 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• FAIRFIELD has committed 2+ turnovers in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not committed 2+ turnovers in 3 straight since 11/14/25–9/4/26 (2026).
FAI's defense has averaged 2.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 19-game average is 0.8 takeaways per game. (+196%)
FAI's defense has averaged 90.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 16-game average is 156.9 pass yards per game. (-43%)
FAI's defense has averaged 8.2 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 16-game average is 11.5 YPA. (-29%)
FAI's defense has averaged 252.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 16-game average is 200.8 rush yards per game. (+25%)
FAI's defense has averaged 5.7 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 16-game average is 7.6 YPC. (-25%)
FAI's defense has averaged 7.0 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 16-game average is 8.8 YPP. (-21%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where FAIRFIELD sits among 148 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 16.7, Defense Grade 46.7.
YARDS / PLAY ALLOWED: FAIRFIELD VS THE SECTION
FAIRFIELD ranks #121 of 121 section teams in yards per play allowed (19.67) -- a weakness worth a look.
FAIRFIELD: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -18.0 in 2022 to -17.3 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
