In short: Willows Honkers high school football (Willows, CA), 2026 season: 1-7. Last game: L 13-36 vs Winters on October 23, 2026. Next: at Paradise, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The number to watch when Willows meets Paradise is Willows' scoring defense. Willows allowed 23.5 points per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #21 in Section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that hot start (0-4), the Honkers have allowed 37.5 points per game, a 60% rise, #40 in Section in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 25.5 points per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (24.6 points per game), Willows allowed 53% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #11 in Section, well above the first 4 (#27), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Paradise's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Bobcats have averaged 23.5 points per game over their last 4 games (2-2), #18 in Section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in Section (19.7 points per game on the season, which would rank #16). Against those norms, Paradise scored 19% more than those defenses usually allow. Paradise offers Willows a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Willows is 1-1 this season when it holds opponents under 21, and 0-6 when it doesn't.
Willows' defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Willows allowed 6.5 yards per play (1,314 yards on 203 snaps) over its first 4 games (1-3), #18 in Section through those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (0-4), the Honkers have allowed 7.7 yards per play (1,362 yards on 178 snaps), an 18% rise, #28 in Section through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.7 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.7 yards per play), Willows allowed 14% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #11 in Section, well above the first 4 (#27), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Paradise's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Bobcats have averaged 7.4 yards per play (1,465 yards on 199 snaps) over their last 4 games (2-2), #13 in Section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in Section (5.9 yards per play on the season, which would rank #15). Against those norms, Paradise gained 25% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. Paradise offers Willows a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
TIDBITS (4 found)
• Club Willows has lost 4 straight, and a loss would make it 5 in a row. The last time they lost 5 or more in a row was 2023, a run of 25.
• Club The last time Willows went a game averaging 7.0+ yards per play was October 28, 2022 against Biggs (W, 21-18). Since then Willows has gone 40 straight games being held under 7.0 yards per play, a school-record 40 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Willows has gone 8 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers (August 21, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 1-7 over that stretch, a school-record 8 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Willows has gone 8 straight games allowing 100+ rushing yards (August 21, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 1-7 over that stretch, a school-record 8 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Willows has played a tougher-than-average schedule in the pool so far (#13 of 41), and what is left is a tougher-than-average slate (#15 of 39).
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#13 of 41
avg opponent rating 0.3 over 8 games · 6 vs top-25 CIF Northern Section
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#15 of 39
avg opponent rating -1.3 over 2 games · 2 vs top-25
@Los Moli… L 24-47@Williams L 0-16Hamilton L 22-31Live Oak W 7-0@East Nic… L 7-54Pierce L 23-29@Colusa L 13-31Winters L 13-36@ParadiseDurham
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 9 game; last updated Oct 23; roster and numbers checked Oct 6.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 5/8, sacks/INT 5/8, sacks allowed 7/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 3.1/100 (-136 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 11.5/100 (-110 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 36.4/100 (+15 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 30.3/100 (+37 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
WIL HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• WIL holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry (.333), but most recently lost to Colusa when doing so
• WIL holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.333), but most recently lost to Colusa when doing so
• WIL forces 3+ takeaways (.333), but most recently lost to Winters when doing so
• WIL holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards (.250), but most recently lost to Colusa when doing so
• WIL's offense has averaged -8.0 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 1.4 YPC. (-672%)
• WIL's offense has averaged -8.0 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 1.4 YPP. (-662%)
• WIL's offense has averaged 16.3 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 6.6 points scored per game. (+149%)
• WIL's offense has averaged -8.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 76.6 rush yards per game. (-110%)
• WIL's offense has averaged -8.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 102.9 total yards per game. (-108%)
• WIL's offense has averaged 0.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 26.3 pass yards per game. (-100%)
• WIL's defense has averaged 2.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 14-game average is 1.1 takeaways per game. (+75%)
• WIL's offense has averaged 1.7 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 7-game average is 4.8 YPA. (-65%)
• WIL's offense has averaged 0.7 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 14-game average is 1.6 giveaways per game. (-58%)
• WIL's defense has averaged 7.2 YPA over their last 7 games. Their 14-game average is 13.5 YPA. (-47%)
• WIL's defense has averaged 6.6 YPP over their last 7 games. Their 14-game average is 9.3 YPP. (-29%)
• WILLOWS has allowed 30+ in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not allowed 30+ in 3 straight since 9/5/25–8/21/26 (2026). It has reached 3 straight 3 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 10 straight (2026) in that span.
• WILLOWS has been held under 14 in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not been held under 14 in 3 straight since 9/13/24–11/7/25 (2025). It has reached 3 straight 2 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 18 straight (2025) in that span.
• WILLOWS has lost 4 straight (9/25/26–10/23/26). It has not lost 5 straight since 10/27/23–9/11/26 (2026). It has reached 5 straight 2 times in the last 4 years and has lost a high of 25 straight (2026) in that span.
WIL's defense has averaged 2.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 14-game average is 1.1 takeaways per game. (+75%)
WIL's defense has averaged 7.2 YPA over their last 7 games. Their 14-game average is 13.5 YPA. (-47%)
WIL's defense has averaged 6.6 YPP over their last 7 games. Their 14-game average is 9.3 YPP. (-29%)
WIL's defense has averaged 6.1 YPC over their last 7 games. Their 14-game average is 8.3 YPC. (-26%)
WIL's defense has averaged 37.8 points allowed per game over their last 15 games. Their 28-game average is 30.5 points allowed per game. (+24%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where WILLOWS sits among 41 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 20.0, Defense Grade 33.5.
RUSH YARDS ALLOWED / GAME: WILLOWS VS THE SECTION
WILLOWS ranks #39 of 40 section teams in rushing yards allowed per game (311.0) -- a weakness worth a look.
WILLOWS: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -3.1 in 2022 to -13.3 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
