In short: Pierce Bears high school football (Arbuckle, CA), 2026 season: 5-3. Last game: W 31-0 vs Durham on October 23, 2026. Next: at Colusa, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The number to watch when Pierce meets Colusa is Pierce's scoring defense. Pierce allowed 29.7 points per game over its first 3 games (1-2), #28 in Section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (4-1), the Bears have allowed 9.4 points per game, a 68% drop, #8 in Section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Pierce's last 5 opponents have averaged 22.0 points per game, a #23 offense in Section on the season, against 30.6 points per game, #10 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (22.0 points per game), Pierce held those offenses 57% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #18 in Section, well below the first 3 (#9), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Only Willows broke through in that span, putting up 23 on 10/9. Meanwhile, Colusa's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Redhawks have averaged 10.6 points per game over their last 5 games (1-4), #34 in Section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in Section (20.7 points per game on the season, which would rank #18). Against those norms, Colusa scored 49% less than those defenses usually allow. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Pierce. Pierce is 4-1 this season when it holds opponents under 18, and 1-2 when it doesn't.
The turnover battle could decide Pierce's next game, against Colusa, and the recent returns favor Pierce. Pierce committed 2.0 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #29 in Section through those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Bears have committed 1.0 giveaways per game, a 50% drop, #12 in Section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Pierce's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.6 per game, a #17 defense in Section on the season, against 1.8 per game, #15 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.6 per game), Pierce turned it over 38% less than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #18 in Section, well below the first 4 (#11), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Colusa's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Redhawks have forced 1.5 takeaways per game over their last 4 games (1-3), #17 in Section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in Section (1.5 per game on the season, which would rank #25). Colusa offers Pierce a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
NOTES
The biggest shift in Pierce's season has come in its offense. Pierce averaged 16.0 points per game over its first 3 games (1-2), #27 in Section within that period. In the 5 games since that slow start (4-1), the Bears have averaged 22.8 points per game, a 43% rise, #18 in Section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Pierce's last 5 opponents have averaged 22.1 points per game, a #20 scoring defense in Section on the season, against 19.2 points per game, #15 for the first 3. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #18 in Section, well below the first 3 (#9), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Pierce ranks #24 in Section in scoring. Colusa's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #27 in Section (25.1 points per game). Pierce is 3-1 this season when it scores 26 or more, and 2-2 when it doesn't.
Few teams in Section have allowed fewer yards per snap over the last 5 games than Pierce. The Bears allowed 6.7 yards per play (1,113 yards on 165 snaps) over their first 3 games (1-2), #23 in Section during those games. In the 5 games since that slow start (4-1), Pierce has allowed 4.0 yards per play (625 yards on 158 snaps), a 41% drop, #2 in Section during that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Pierce's last 5 opponents have averaged 6.0 yards per play, a #26 offense in Section on the season, against 6.8 yards per play, #20 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.0 yards per play), Pierce held those offenses 34% below their usual yards per snap. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #18 in Section, well below the first 3 (#9), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Bears rank #6 in Section in yards per play allowed. The trend lines up well against Colusa, whose offense ranks just #35 of 40 (5.2 yards per play).
Pierce allowed 6.4 yards per carry (896 yards on 140 rushes) over its first 3 games (1-2), #28 in Section during that stretch. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 5 games since that slow start (4-1), the Bears have allowed 4.1 yards per carry (524 yards on 127 rushes), a 36% drop, #4 in Section over that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Pierce's last 5 opponents have averaged 5.8 yards per carry, a #25 rushing attack in Section on the season, against 6.5 yards per carry, #15 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.8 yards per carry), Pierce held those rushing attacks 29% below their usual yards per carry. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #18 in Section, well below the first 3 (#9), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Pierce ranks #12 in Section in run defense. The trend lines up well against Colusa, whose ground game ranks just #33 of 40 (4.5 yards per carry).
TIDBITS (10 found)
• Club Pierce has won 2 straight, and a win would make it 3 in a row. The last time they won 3 or more in a row was 2025, a run of 8.
• Club Pierce has gone 8 straight games being held under 200 passing yards (August 28, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 5-3 over that stretch, matching the program record of 8 straight on record.
• Club Pierce has gone 6 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers (September 11, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 4-2 over that stretch, a school-record 6 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Pierce is 18-2 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points. Pierce's last loss when holding the opponent under 10 points was October 2, 2026 against East Nicolaus (L, 6-7).
• Club Pierce has gone 6 straight games rushing for 100+ yards (September 11, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 4-2 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2024 (8 games).
• Player Colin Dye has 43 tackles over his last 5 games (8.6 a game, September 11, 2026 through October 9, 2026) -- his most in a 5-game stretch on record.
• Player Alfredo Huerta has 25 tackles over his last 3 games (8.3 a game, September 25, 2026 through October 9, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Austin Jorge has gone 4 straight games running for a touchdown, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Austin Jorge has never had a game throwing for 200+ yards for Pierce, over a 25-game career on record. His career high is 130, set September 11, 2026 against Orland (L, 32-48).
• Player Colin Dye has never had a game recording 100+ receiving yards for Pierce, over a 18-game career on record. His career high is 63, set September 12, 2025 against Lincoln (W, 23-21).
MILESTONE WATCH
Pierce
Alfredo Huerta needs 5 tackles for 50 (averaging 7.5 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 9 game; last updated Oct 21; roster and numbers checked Sep 10.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 7/8, sacks/INT 7/8, sacks allowed 7/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 19.7/100 (-78 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 77.0/100 (+58 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 88.8/100 (-70 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 72.0/100 (-48 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
PIE finished 2025 at 9-2. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 23-21 over LINCOLN (LINCOLN finished 82% that season). Toughest loss: 10-31 to WINTERS (21-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
PIE HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• PIE holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.750)
• PIE holds its opponents under 100 rushing yards (.999), and has won 6 straight when doing so
• PIE forces 2+ takeaways (.999), and has won 6 straight when doing so
• PIE holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry (.875)
• PIE's defense has averaged -1.9 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 4.8 YPP. (-139%)
• PIE's defense has averaged -1.6 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 4.2 YPC. (-138%)
• PIE's defense has averaged 6.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 92.2 pass yards per game. (-93%)
• PIE's offense has failed to reach 200 pass yds in 8 straight games (08/28/2026-10/23/2026), going 5-3 over that stretch.
• PIE's defense has averaged 1.5 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 14-game average is 4.8 YPA. (-69%)
• PIE's defense has averaged 93.5 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 272.7 total yards per game. (-66%)
• PIE's offense has exceeded 100 rush yds in 6 straight games (09/11/2026-10/23/2026), going 4-2 over that stretch.
• PIE holds its opponents under 121.0 rushing yards (PIE's own median) (.999)
• PIE holds its opponents under 4.8 yards per carry (PIE's own median) (.999)
• PIE's defense has averaged 2.2 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 16-game average is 1.4 takeaways per game. (+53%)
• PIE's defense has averaged 87.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 180.5 rush yards per game. (-52%)
PIE — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (30 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
1-6
.143
2.6
Scores 10-19
3-2
.600
12.6
Scores 20-29
9-0
1.000
23.7
Scores 30-39
5-1
.833
32.0
Scores 40+
3-0
1.000
47.3
PIE — OFFENSE — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
2-2
.500
24.2
W2
YPA < 8.0
3-1
.750
16.2
W1
Pass Yds 200+
--
--
--
--
Pass Yds < 200
5-3
.625
20.2
W2
Rush Yds 100+
5-2
.714
22.3
W2
Rush Yds < 100
0-1
.000
6.0
L1
Rush Yds 150+
4-1
.800
26.0
W3
Rush Yds < 150
1-2
.333
10.7
L1
YPC 5.0+
5-1
.833
25.0
W4
YPC < 5.0
0-2
.000
6.0
L2
YPP 6.0+
3-1
.750
30.0
W3
YPP < 6.0
2-2
.500
10.5
L1
YPP 7.0+
2-1
.667
29.7
W2
YPP < 7.0
3-2
.600
14.6
W1
Turnovers 1+
5-2
.714
22.3
W4
Turnovers < 1
0-1
.000
6.0
L1
Turnovers 2+
3-1
.750
18.2
W2
Turnovers > 2
0-1
.000
6.0
L1
PIE — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-2
.000
6.0
Scores 10-19
1-0
1.000
10.0
Scores 20-29
3-0
1.000
25.7
Scores 30-39
1-1
.500
31.5
Scores 40+
--
--
--
PIE — DEFENSE — 2024-26 (30 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
1-1
.500
15.5
W1
YPA < 8.0
7-5
.583
19.1
L1
16 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
3-1
.750
18.2
W2
Pass Yds < 200
6-5
.545
19.1
W1
15 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
3-6
.333
22.6
L1
Rush Yds < 100
6-0
1.000
13.3
W6
15 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
2-5
.286
24.6
L1
Rush Yds < 150
7-1
.875
13.9
W5
15 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
2-5
.286
27.0
W1
YPC < 5.0
7-1
.875
11.8
W1
15 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
1-4
.200
26.4
L1
YPP < 6.0
8-2
.800
15.1
W1
15 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
0-3
.000
31.3
L3
YPP < 7.0
9-3
.750
15.8
W1
15 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
7-4
.636
18.2
W1
Turnovers < 1
3-2
.600
16.6
W1
14 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 2+
6-0
1.000
11.3
W6
14 games without this stat on file
Turnovers > 2
3-0
1.000
5.7
W3
14 games without this stat on file
PIE — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (30 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
13-1
.929
3.1
Allows 10-19
3-1
.750
14.8
Allows 20-29
5-2
.714
21.9
Allows 30-39
0-3
.000
32.0
Allows 40+
0-2
.000
45.0
PIE — DEFENSE — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
1-0
1.000
7.0
W1
YPA < 8.0
2-3
.400
21.2
L1
2 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
1-0
1.000
7.0
W1
Pass Yds < 200
3-3
.500
21.5
W1
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
2-3
.400
22.6
L1
Rush Yds < 100
2-0
1.000
11.5
W2
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
1-3
.250
26.5
L1
Rush Yds < 150
3-0
1.000
10.0
W3
1 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
1-2
.333
33.0
W1
YPC < 5.0
3-1
.750
9.2
W1
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
1-1
.500
27.5
L1
YPP < 6.0
3-2
.600
16.2
W1
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
0-1
.000
48.0
L1
YPP < 7.0
4-2
.667
14.7
W1
1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
4-3
.571
19.4
W1
Turnovers < 1
1-0
1.000
0.0
W1
Turnovers 2+
4-0
1.000
11.8
W4
Turnovers > 2
2-0
1.000
8.5
W2
PIE — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
3-1
.750
3.5
Allows 10-19
1-0
1.000
17.0
Allows 20-29
1-0
1.000
23.0
Allows 30-39
0-1
.000
34.0
Allows 40+
0-1
.000
48.0
ON THE BRINK
PIERCE
• PIERCE has been held under 100 passing in 5 straight games (9/18/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 6 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• PIERCE has rushed for 200+ in 2 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
PIE's defense has averaged -1.9 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 4.8 YPP. (-139%)
PIE's defense has averaged -1.6 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 4.2 YPC. (-138%)
PIE's defense has averaged 6.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 92.2 pass yards per game. (-93%)
PIE's defense has averaged 1.5 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 14-game average is 4.8 YPA. (-69%)
PIE's defense has averaged 93.5 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 272.7 total yards per game. (-66%)
PIE's defense has averaged 2.2 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 16-game average is 1.4 takeaways per game. (+53%)
PIE's defense has averaged 87.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 180.5 rush yards per game. (-52%)
PIE's defense has averaged 9.4 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 30-game average is 14.7 points allowed per game. (-36%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where PIERCE sits among 41 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 45.9, Defense Grade 64.8.
RUSH YARDS ALLOWED / GAME: PIERCE VS THE SECTION
PIERCE ranks #38 of 40 section teams in rushing yards allowed per game (298.7) -- a weakness worth a look.
PIERCE: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 7.1 in 2022 to -0.5 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
