In short: Live Oak Lions high school football (Live Oak, CA), 2026 season: 3-5 in the Westside League League. Last game: W 2-0 vs Oroville on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Orland, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The number to watch when Live Oak meets Orland is Live Oak's scoring defense. Live Oak allowed 11.0 points per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #4 in Section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), the Lions have allowed 28.5 points per game, a 159% rise, #30 in Section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Live Oak's last 4 opponents have averaged 21.9 points per game, a #23 offense in Section on the season, against 15.8 points per game, #31 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (21.9 points per game), Live Oak allowed 30% more than those offenses usually score. Conversely, Orland's offense has been one of Section's better units in recent weeks. The Trojans have averaged 29.0 points per game over their last 4 games (3-1), #13 in Section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in Section (23.6 points per game on the season, which would rank #26). Against those norms, Orland scored 23% more than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #27 in Section, a lower level of competition. Unless Live Oak's defense rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Orland. Live Oak is 3-3 this season when it holds opponents under 26, and 0-2 when it doesn't.
The turnover battle could decide Live Oak's next game, against Orland, and the recent returns favor Orland. Live Oak committed 2.0 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #29 in Section through those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), the Lions have committed 4.0 giveaways per game, a 100% rise, #41 in Section through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.7 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.8 per game), Live Oak turned it over 127% more than those defenses usually force. Conversely, Orland's defense has been one of Section's better units in recent weeks. The Trojans have forced 2.0 takeaways per game over their last 4 games (3-1), #7 in Section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the weaker offenses in Section (1.9 per game on the season, which would rank #32). Against those norms, Orland forced 6% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #27 in Section, a lower level of competition. Unless Live Oak's ball security rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Orland.
NOTES
Live Oak's ground game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Live Oak averaged 5.9 yards per carry (1,479 yards on 251 rushes) on the season, #22 in Section, but that number is boosted by a 493-yard game on 57 rushes against Quincy on 8/28. In all other games, Live Oak is at 5.1 yards per carry (986 yards on 194 rushes), a figure that would rank #32 in Section. Context matters here: Quincy's run defense ranks among the weakest in Section (8.3 yards per carry, #38 of 41), so that game says more about the opponent than about the unit itself. Orland's run defense (8.1 yards per carry, #37 of 41) gives Live Oak a real chance to look like the season line again.
The biggest worry in Live Oak's season has been the direction of its offense. The Lions averaged 25.0 points per game over their first 4 games (2-2), #17 in Section within that period. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), Live Oak has averaged 5.0 points per game, an 80% drop, #40 in Section across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 26.7 points per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (25.7 points per game), Live Oak scored 81% less than those defenses usually allow. Live Oak was held to 14 points or fewer 4 times in those games, including 0 against ScorePirate CIF Northern Section #20 Corning on 10/9. On the season, the Lions rank #31 in Section in scoring. Orland's defense, #32 of 41 (29.0 points per game), could be the get-right matchup Live Oak needs. Live Oak is 2-0 this season when it scores 29 or more, and 1-5 when it doesn't.
Live Oak's run defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Live Oak allowed 5.0 yards per carry (405 yards on 81 rushes) over its first 4 games (2-2), #15 in Section during those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), the Lions have allowed 7.2 yards per carry (644 yards on 90 rushes), a 43% rise, #30 in Section during that period. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 4 opponents have been softer, averaging 5.3 yards per carry, a #30 rushing attack in Section on the season, against 5.8 yards per carry, #24 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.3 yards per carry), Live Oak allowed 35% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. On the season, Live Oak ranks #23 in Section in run defense. Orland's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #16 in Section (6.3 yards per carry).
TIDBITS (4 found)
• Club The last time Live Oak went a game throwing for 200+ yards was November 8, 2024 against Orland (L, 21-56). Since then Live Oak has gone 19 straight games being held under 200 passing yards, a school-record 19 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club The last time Live Oak went a game committing no turnovers was October 10, 2025 against Las Plumas (L, 29-42). Since then Live Oak has gone 12 straight games committing 1+ turnover, a school-record 12 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Live Oak is 12-1 all time when averaging 7.0+ yards per play. Live Oak's last loss when averaging 7.0+ yards per play was November 8, 2024 against Orland (L, 21-56).
• Player Kaiden Dulan has never had a game recording 100+ receiving yards for Live Oak, over a 19-game career on record. His career high is 86, set November 8, 2024 against Orland (L, 21-56).
MILESTONE WATCH
Live Oak
Jesus Martinez needs 10 rushing yards for 1,000 (averaging 141.4 a game)
Chase Ehrke needs 2 tackles for 50 (averaging 6.9 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 16 game; last updated Oct 21; roster and numbers checked Sep 10.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 7/8, defense 7/8, sacks/INT 7/8, sacks allowed 7/8, turnovers 7/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 13.4/100 (-94 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 60.3/100 (+11 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 31.7/100 (+22 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 42.3/100 (+12 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
LO finished 2025 at 3-7. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 47-34 over CENTRAL VALLEY (CENTRAL VALLEY finished 20% that season). Toughest loss: 27-33 to PARADISE (6-point margin).
• LIVE OAK has been held under 14 in 5 straight games (9/18/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 6 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
LO's defense has averaged 174.5 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 26-game average is 103.8 pass yards per game. (+68%)
LO's defense has averaged 20.0 points allowed per game over their last 7 games. Their 29-game average is 30.2 points allowed per game. (-34%)
LO's defense has averaged 13.9 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 26-game average is 10.4 YPA. (+34%)
LO's defense has averaged 412.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 313.2 total yards per game. (+32%)
LO's defense has averaged 1.5 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 1.1 takeaways per game. (+31%)
LO's defense has averaged 5.9 YPC over their last 7 games. Their 28-game average is 8.1 YPC. (-27%)
LO's defense has averaged 162.0 rush yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 28-game average is 216.8 rush yards per game. (-25%)
LO's defense has averaged 6.8 YPP over their last 10 games. Their 28-game average is 8.8 YPP. (-23%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where LIVE OAK (LIVE OAK) sits among 41 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 47.1, Defense Grade 40.9.
RUSH YARDS / GAME: LIVE OAK (LIVE OAK) VS THE SECTION
LIVE OAK (LIVE OAK) ranks #1 of 40 section teams in rushing yards per game (493.0) -- a strength worth a look.
LIVE OAK (LIVE OAK): SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -10.3 in 2022 to -1.9 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
