In short: Foothill Mustangs high school football (Sacramento, CA), 2026 season: 7-1. Last game: W 43-0 vs Armijo on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Johnson, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The number to watch when Foothill meets Johnson is Foothill's scoring. Foothill averaged 25.3 points per game over its first 3 games (2-1), #66 in Section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (5-0), the Mustangs have averaged 42.4 points per game, a 67% rise, #18 in Section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Foothill's last 5 opponents have averaged 34.1 points per game, a #120 scoring defense in Section on the season, against 22.7 points per game, #61 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (34.1 points per game), Foothill scored 24% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #133 in Section, well below the first 3 (#55), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Johnson's defense has been one of Section's better units in recent weeks. The Warriors have allowed 14.6 points per game over their last 5 games (5-0), #22 in Section during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker offenses in Section (16.9 points per game on the season, which would rank #124). Against those norms, Johnson held those offenses 13% below what they usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #126 in Section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Foothill's surging offense meets one of Section's better units in Johnson's.
NOTES
The biggest shift in Foothill's season has come in its defense. Foothill allowed 28.3 points per game over its first 3 games (2-1), #90 in Section through those games. In the 5 games since that slow start (5-0), the Mustangs have allowed 9.6 points per game, a 66% drop, #10 in Section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Foothill's last 5 opponents have averaged 13.9 points per game, a #129 offense in Section on the season, against 33.2 points per game, #42 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (13.9 points per game), Foothill held those offenses 31% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #133 in Section, well below the first 3 (#55), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Foothill ranks #23 in Section in scoring defense. That form gets a real test against Johnson, whose offense ranks #18 in Section (38.4 points per game).
The Mustangs averaged 4.8 yards per carry (469 yards on 97 rushes) over their first 4 games (3-1), #105 in Section over that stretch. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 4 games since that slow start (4-0), Foothill has averaged 6.8 yards per carry (561 yards on 82 rushes), a 41% rise, #55 in Section within that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Foothill's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.8 yards per carry, a #126 run defense in Section on the season, against 6.9 yards per carry, #108 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.8 yards per carry), Foothill ran for 13% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #131 in Section, well below the first 4 (#82), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Mustangs rank #82 in Section in rushing. That form gets a real test against Johnson, whose run defense ranks #21 in Section (4.3 yards per carry).
Foothill's offense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. Foothill averaged 7.6 yards per play (1,488 yards on 195 snaps) over its first 4 games (3-1), #47 in Section across those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (4-0), the Mustangs have averaged 10.0 yards per play (1,774 yards on 178 snaps), a 31% rise, #19 in Section during those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Foothill's last 4 opponents have averaged 8.5 yards per play, a #130 defense in Section on the season, against 7.8 yards per play, #105 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.5 yards per play), Foothill gained 17% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #131 in Section, well below the first 4 (#82), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Foothill ranks #26 in Section in yards per play. That form gets a real test against Johnson, whose defense ranks #23 in Section (5.6 yards per play).
Something changed for Foothill's passing game after its first 3 games. The Mustangs averaged 10.0 yards per pass attempt (797 yards on 80 attempts) over their first 3 games (2-1), #33 in Section during that period. In the 5 games since that slow start (5-0), Foothill has averaged 12.6 yards per pass attempt (1,435 yards on 114 attempts), a 26% rise, #13 in Section during that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Foothill's last 5 opponents have averaged 9.8 yards per attempt, a #119 pass defense in Section on the season, against 8.3 yards per attempt, #75 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (9.8 yards per attempt), Foothill threw for 28% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #133 in Section, well below the first 3 (#55), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Mustangs rank #17 in Section in passing. Johnson's pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #40 in Section (7.2 yards per attempt).
TIDBITS (13 found)
• Club Foothill has won 5 straight, and a win would make it 6 in a row -- something they have not done in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Foothill has gone 8 straight games averaging 8.0+ yards per attempt (August 28, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 7-1 over that stretch, a school-record 8 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Foothill has gone 8 straight games forcing 1+ turnover (August 28, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 7-1 over that stretch, a school-record 8 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Foothill is 15-0 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points in the games on file (15 such games).
• Club Foothill has scored 133 points over its last 3 games (44.3 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- its most in a 3-game stretch since the 136 from November 1, 2024 through August 22, 2025.
• Club Foothill has gone 8 straight games averaging 6.0+ yards per play (August 28, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 7-1 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2025 (11 games).
• Club Foothill has gone 6 straight games throwing for 200+ yards (September 18, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 5-1 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2025 (7 games).
• Player Joshua Pilgard has gone 7 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Tijai Harbison has gone 7 straight games catching a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Tijai Harbison has 380 receiving yards over his last 3 games (126.7 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player James Hogan has gone 6 straight games recording two or more tackles for loss, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Joshua Pilgard has gone 5 straight games throwing for 200+ yards, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Tiyani Mcelveen has gone 3 straight games running for a touchdown, the longest such streak of his career.
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Foothill has played a softer-than-average schedule in the pool so far (#128 of 152), and what is left is a softer-than-average slate (#102 of 151).
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#128 of 152
avg opponent rating -9.7 over 8 games · 0 vs top-25 CIF Sac-Joaquin Section
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#102 of 151
avg opponent rating -6.3 over 2 games · 0 vs top-25
@Woodland… W 34-28@Rio Linda W 22-16Lincoln L 20-41@Davis SR. W 48-7Fairfield W 31-7@River Va… W 35-14@Burbank W 55-20Armijo W 43-0Johnson@Kennedy
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
MILESTONE WATCH
Foothill
Joshua Pilgard needs 92 passing yards for 2,000 (averaging 272.6 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 16 game; last updated Oct 21; roster and numbers checked Sep 6.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 5/8, sacks/INT 7/8, sacks allowed 5/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 84.9/100 (+78 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 29.7/100 (-56 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 69.1/100 (-31 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 45.7/100 (+5 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-10-30
vs
JOHNSON
8-0
38.4
2026-11-06
at
KENNEDY
4-4
28.4
LAST YEAR
FOO finished 2025 at 3-7. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 66-26 over NATOMAS (NATOMAS finished 0% that season). Toughest loss: 12-25 to ARMIJO (13-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
FOO HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• FOO forces 1+ takeaways (.750), and has won 5 straight when doing so
• FOO averages 6.0+ yards per play (.714), and has won 5 straight when doing so
• FOO holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.857), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• FOO averages 8.0+ yards per attempt (.700), and has won 5 straight when doing so
• FOO's defense has averaged 0.5 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 19-game average is 6.3 YPC. (-92%)
• FOO's defense has averaged 22.0 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 19-game average is 163.6 rush yards per game. (-87%)
• FOO's offense has averaged 2.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 1.1 giveaways per game. (+80%)
• FOO's offense has averaged 44.3 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 26.5 points scored per game. (+67%)
• FOO's offense has exceeded 200 pass yds in 6 straight games (09/18/2026-10/23/2026), going 5-1 over that stretch.
• FOO's defense has averaged 3.1 YPP over their last 5 games. Their 20-game average is 7.6 YPP. (-60%)
• FOO's defense has averaged 9.6 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 28-game average is 23.7 points allowed per game. (-60%)
• FOO's offense has averaged 294.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 193.0 pass yards per game. (+52%)
• FOO's defense has averaged 130.0 total yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 20-game average is 271.2 total yards per game. (-52%)
• FOO holds its opponents under 8.3 yards per attempt (FOO's own median) (.700)
• FOO's defense has averaged 5.8 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 20-game average is 10.0 YPA. (-42%)
• FOOTHILL has scored 30+ in 5 straight games (9/25/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 6 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• FOOTHILL has won by 20+ in 5 straight games (9/25/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 6 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• FOOTHILL has scored 40+ in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• FOOTHILL has forced 2+ turnovers in 5 straight games (9/25/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 6 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
FOO's defense has averaged 0.5 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 19-game average is 6.3 YPC. (-92%)
FOO's defense has averaged 22.0 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 19-game average is 163.6 rush yards per game. (-87%)
FOO's defense has averaged 3.1 YPP over their last 5 games. Their 20-game average is 7.6 YPP. (-60%)
FOO's defense has averaged 9.6 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 28-game average is 23.7 points allowed per game. (-60%)
FOO's defense has averaged 130.0 total yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 20-game average is 271.2 total yards per game. (-52%)
FOO's defense has averaged 5.8 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 20-game average is 10.0 YPA. (-42%)
FOO's defense has averaged 2.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 1.4 takeaways per game. (+38%)
FOO's defense has averaged 92.0 pass yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 20-game average is 115.8 pass yards per game. (-21%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where FOOTHILL (SACRAMENTO) sits among 148 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 53.5, Defense Grade 43.8.
PASS YARDS / GAME: FOOTHILL (SACRAMENTO) VS THE SECTION
FOOTHILL (SACRAMENTO) ranks #10 of 130 section teams in passing yards per game (262.0) -- a strength worth a look.
FOOTHILL (SACRAMENTO): SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -6.9 in 2022 to -3.9 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
