In short: Montclair Cavaliers high school football (Montclair, CA), 2026 season: 8-1 in the Gano League. Last game: W 42-0 vs Chaffey on October 22, 2026. Next: vs Walnut, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The number to watch when Montclair meets Walnut is Montclair's scoring defense. Montclair allowed 2.0 points per game over its first 3 games (3-0), #1 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. In the 6 games since that hot start (5-1), the Cavaliers have allowed 17.5 points per game, a 775% rise, #97 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Montclair's last 6 opponents have averaged 27.5 points per game, a #162 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 16.5 points per game, #328 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (27.5 points per game), Montclair held those offenses 36% below what they usually score. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Meanwhile, Walnut's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Mustangs have averaged 18.5 points per game over their last 6 games (2-4), #293 in CIF-SS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in CIF-SS (26.0 points per game on the season, which would rank #245). Against those norms, Walnut scored 29% less than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #258 in CIF-SS, a lower level of competition. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. Montclair is 5-0 this season when it holds opponents under 16, and 3-1 when it doesn't.
The turnover battle could decide Montclair's next game, against Walnut, and the recent returns favor Walnut. Montclair committed 0.5 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (4-0), #27 in CIF-SS through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (4-1), the Cavaliers have committed 1.6 giveaways per game, a 220% rise, #264 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Montclair's last 5 opponents have averaged 1.4 per game, a #155 defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 0.9 per game, #300 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.4 per game), Montclair turned it over 11% more than those defenses usually force. Meanwhile, Walnut's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Mustangs have forced 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 5 games (1-4), #231 in CIF-SS over that stretch. Those games came against some of the weaker offenses in CIF-SS (1.5 per game on the season, which would rank #273). Against those norms, Walnut forced 35% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #259 in CIF-SS, a lower level of competition. Walnut offers Montclair a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Montclair's season has been the direction of its pass defense. Montclair allowed 4.7 yards per pass attempt (406 yards on 86 attempts) over its first 4 games (4-0), #39 in CIF-SS within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (4-1), the Cavaliers have allowed 7.9 yards per pass attempt (612 yards on 77 attempts), a 68% rise, #197 in CIF-SS across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Montclair's last 5 opponents have averaged 8.9 yards per attempt, a #117 passing attack in CIF-SS on the season, against 7.2 yards per attempt, #218 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.9 yards per attempt), Montclair held those passing attacks 10% below their usual yards per attempt. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, Montclair ranks #60 in CIF-SS in pass defense. Walnut's passing game, #304 of 376 (5.9 yards per attempt), could be the get-right matchup Montclair needs.
The Cavaliers allowed 4.4 yards per play (702 yards on 160 snaps) over their first 4 games (4-0), #31 in CIF-SS during those games. Few teams started faster in this department, and few have cooled off as sharply since. In the 5 games since that hot start (4-1), Montclair has allowed 6.5 yards per play (1,359 yards on 209 snaps), a 48% rise, #177 in CIF-SS during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Montclair's last 5 opponents have averaged 7.9 yards per play, a #90 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 7.1 yards per play, #151 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.9 yards per play), Montclair held those offenses 18% below their usual yards per snap. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, the Cavaliers rank #83 in CIF-SS in yards per play allowed. Walnut's offense, #342 of 379 (4.6 yards per play), could be the get-right matchup Montclair needs.
Montclair's offense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. Montclair averaged 20.7 points per game over its first 6 games (5-1), #270 in CIF-SS during that stretch. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (3-0), the Cavaliers have averaged 30.3 points per game, a 47% rise, #139 in CIF-SS over that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Montclair's last 3 opponents have averaged 27.1 points per game, a #264 scoring defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 21.8 points per game, #171 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (27.1 points per game), Montclair scored 12% more than those defenses usually allow. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #291 in CIF-SS. On the season, Montclair ranks #216 in CIF-SS in scoring. Walnut's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #275 in CIF-SS (28.0 points per game). Montclair is 3-0 this season when it scores 28 or more, and 5-1 when it doesn't.
Something changed for Montclair's ground game after its first 4 games. The Cavaliers averaged 5.5 yards per carry (616 yards on 113 rushes) over their first 4 games (4-0), #184 in CIF-SS over that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (4-1), Montclair has averaged 3.4 yards per carry (311 yards on 91 rushes), a 37% drop, #321 in CIF-SS over that span. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 5 opponents have been softer, averaging 6.1 yards per carry, a #239 run defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 5.4 yards per carry, #173 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.1 yards per carry), Montclair ran for 44% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. On the season, the Cavaliers rank #293 in CIF-SS in rushing. Walnut's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #253 in CIF-SS (6.3 yards per carry).
Montclair's run defense has been gashed on the ground as the season has progressed. Montclair allowed 4.5 yards per carry (467 yards on 104 rushes) over its first 5 games (5-0), #102 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (3-1), the Cavaliers have allowed 5.6 yards per carry (576 yards on 102 rushes), a 26% rise, #183 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 4 opponents have been softer, averaging 6.8 yards per carry, a #98 rushing attack in CIF-SS on the season, against 7.5 yards per carry, #61 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.8 yards per carry), Montclair held those rushing attacks 16% below their usual yards per carry. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, Montclair ranks #129 in CIF-SS in run defense. Walnut's ground game, #343 of 379 (3.6 yards per carry), could be the get-right matchup Montclair needs.
TIDBITS (6 found)
• Club Montclair has won 3 straight, and a win would make it 4 in a row. The last time they won 4 or more in a row was 2026, a run of 5.
• Club Montclair has gone 13 straight games holding the opponent under 200 passing yards (October 2, 2025 through October 22, 2026), going 10-3 over that stretch, a school-record 13 straight in the 22 seasons on record.
• Club Montclair has gone 4 straight games holding the opponent under 8.0 yards per attempt (October 2, 2026 through October 22, 2026), going 3-1 over that stretch, matching the program record of 4 straight on record.
• Club Montclair is 14-1 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points. Montclair's last loss when holding the opponent under 10 points was October 7, 2022 against Pioneer (L, 0-3).
• Club Montclair is 11-2 all time when averaging 7.0+ yards per play. Montclair's last loss when averaging 7.0+ yards per play was October 1, 2022 against Covina (L, 24-42).
• Player Jose Campos has 44 tackles over his last 5 games (8.8 a game, September 4, 2026 through October 9, 2026) -- his most in a 5-game stretch on record.
MILESTONE WATCH
Montclair
Emilio Hernandez needs 5 tackles for 50 (averaging 5.0 a game)
Xavier Panuco needs 0 sacks for 5 (averaging 0.5 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 22 game; last updated Oct 26; roster and numbers checked Sep 10.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
CIF-SS Division 13 RUNNER-UP (lost to Arlington 23-0)
1976
CIF-SS CHAMPION (def. Cuyama Valley 42-12)
Section and state results and Players of the Year: CIF-SS Record Book. League finishes judged from league schedules on file (2022-2025 seasons); earlier league titles are not on file.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 7/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 19.6/100 (-79 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 23.1/100 (-73 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 61.2/100 (-20 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 76.7/100 (-59 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
MON HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• MON holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards (.632), and has won 9 straight when doing so
• MON holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.688), and has won 6 straight when doing so
• MON holds its opponents under 200 passing yards (.520), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• MON averages 7.0+ yards per play (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• MON's offense has averaged 30.3 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 16.1 points scored per game. (+88%)
• MON's defense has averaged 2.2 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 29-game average is 1.2 takeaways per game. (+77%)
• MON's offense has averaged 1.9 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 20-game average is 4.5 YPC. (-57%)
• MON's offense has averaged 1.6 giveaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 29-game average is 1.1 giveaways per game. (+45%)
• MON's offense has averaged 176.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 22-game average is 123.1 rush yards per game. (+43%)
• MON's defense has limited opponents to under 8.0 YPA in 4 straight games (10/02/2026-10/22/2026), going 3-1 over that stretch.
• MON is 10-3 (.769) when it wins the turnover battle
• MON rushes for 112.0+ yards (MON's own median) (.818)
• MON's offense has averaged 299.5 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 22-game average is 218.3 total yards per game. (+37%)
• MON's defense has averaged 13.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 20.0 points allowed per game. (-32%)
• MON averages 7.4+ yards per attempt (MON's own median) (.700)
MON's defense has averaged 2.2 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 29-game average is 1.2 takeaways per game. (+77%)
MON's defense has averaged 13.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 20.0 points allowed per game. (-32%)
MON's defense has averaged 5.9 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 7.7 YPA. (-23%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where MONTCLAIR sits among 399 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 20.1, Defense Grade 68.7.
POINTS ALLOWED / GAME: MONTCLAIR VS THE SECTION
MONTCLAIR ranks #4 of 399 section teams in points allowed per game (3.5) -- a strength worth a look.
MONTCLAIR: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -14.9 in 2022 to -4.1 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
