In short: Warren Bears high school football (Downey, CA), 2026 season: 5-4 in the Gateway League. Last game: L 31-42 vs La Mirada on October 23, 2026. Next: at Cerritos, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The number to watch when Warren meets Cerritos is Warren's scoring defense. Warren allowed 17.5 points per game over its first 4 games (4-0), #132 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Bears have allowed 38.0 points per game, a 117% rise, #350 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Warren's last 5 opponents have averaged 34.0 points per game, a #81 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 22.2 points per game, #247 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (34.0 points per game), Warren allowed 12% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #86 in CIF-SS, well above the first 4 (#220), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Cerritos' offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Dons have averaged 15.2 points per game over their last 5 games (2-3), #329 in CIF-SS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in CIF-SS (26.3 points per game on the season, which would rank #252). Against those norms, Cerritos scored 42% less than those defenses usually allow. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. Warren is 2-0 this season when it holds opponents under 19, and 3-4 when it doesn't.
The turnover battle could decide Warren's next game, against Cerritos, and the recent returns favor Cerritos. Warren forced 2.0 takeaways per game over its first 5 games (4-1), #57 in CIF-SS through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Bears have forced 0.5 takeaways per game, a 75% drop, #321 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.4 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.4 per game), Warren forced 64% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #87 in CIF-SS, well above the first 5 (#194), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Cerritos' ball security has struggled in recent weeks. The Dons have committed 2.2 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (1-3), #350 in CIF-SS over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better defenses in CIF-SS (1.6 per game on the season, which would rank #126). Against those norms, Cerritos turned it over 40% more than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #87 in CIF-SS, a strong slate. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Warren's season has been the direction of its defense. Warren allowed 5.4 yards per play (1,026 yards on 191 snaps) over its first 4 games (4-0), #105 in CIF-SS within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Bears have allowed 8.8 yards per play (1,491 yards on 169 snaps), a 64% rise, #325 in CIF-SS across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Warren's last 5 opponents have averaged 7.8 yards per play, a #98 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 5.7 yards per play, #281 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.8 yards per play), Warren allowed 13% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #86 in CIF-SS, well above the first 4 (#220), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Warren ranks #244 in CIF-SS in yards per play allowed. Cerritos' offense sits in the middle of the pack, #117 in CIF-SS (7.4 yards per play).
Warren's run defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Bears allowed 4.5 yards per carry (498 yards on 110 rushes) over their first 4 games (4-0), #116 in CIF-SS during those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), Warren has allowed 7.1 yards per carry (724 yards on 102 rushes), a 57% rise, #296 in CIF-SS during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Warren's last 5 opponents have averaged 6.1 yards per carry, a #143 rushing attack in CIF-SS on the season, against 4.8 yards per carry, #276 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.1 yards per carry), Warren allowed 16% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #86 in CIF-SS, well above the first 4 (#220), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Bears rank #207 in CIF-SS in run defense. Cerritos' ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #279 in CIF-SS (4.7 yards per carry).
Warren averaged 3.5 yards per carry (318 yards on 91 rushes) over its first 4 games (4-0), #330 in CIF-SS during that stretch. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 5 games since that slow start (1-4), the Bears have averaged 5.1 yards per carry (455 yards on 89 rushes), a 46% rise, #227 in CIF-SS over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Warren's last 5 opponents have averaged 5.6 yards per carry, a #191 run defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 7.2 yards per carry, #319 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.6 yards per carry), Warren ran for 9% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #86 in CIF-SS, well above the first 4 (#220), which makes the improvement more impressive. On the season, Warren ranks #311 in CIF-SS in rushing. The trend lines up well against Cerritos, whose run defense ranks just #349 of 404 (7.8 yards per carry).
Something changed for Warren's offense after the first 5 games of the season. The Bears averaged 42.6 points per game over their first 5 games (4-1), #27 in CIF-SS over that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), Warren has averaged 25.5 points per game, a 40% drop, #191 in CIF-SS over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Warren's last 4 opponents have averaged 25.7 points per game, a #239 scoring defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 33.3 points per game, #340 for the first 5. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #87 in CIF-SS, well above the first 5 (#194), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Bears rank #69 in CIF-SS in scoring. Cerritos' defense, #374 of 404 (38.7 points per game), could be the get-right matchup Warren needs. Warren is 4-1 this season when it scores 39 or more, and 1-3 when it doesn't.
Warren's passing game has misfired through the air as the season has progressed. Warren averaged 12.1 yards per pass attempt (1,073 yards on 89 attempts) over its first 4 games (4-0), #24 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Bears have averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt (1,238 yards on 169 attempts), a 39% drop, #201 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Warren's last 5 opponents have averaged 8.7 yards per attempt, a #272 pass defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 10.8 yards per attempt, #365 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.7 yards per attempt), Warren threw for 16% less per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #86 in CIF-SS, well above the first 4 (#220), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Warren ranks #108 in CIF-SS in passing. Cerritos' pass defense, #386 of 404 (12.1 yards per attempt), could be the get-right matchup Warren needs.
TIDBITS (9 found)
• Club Warren is 43-0 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points in the games on file (43 such games).
• Club Warren has gone 8 straight games being held under 150 rushing yards (August 28, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 4-4 over that stretch, matching the program record of 8 straight on record.
• Club Warren has gone 6 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers (September 11, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 2-4 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2025 (12 games).
• Player Jordan Malikin has 1077 passing yards over his last 4 games (269.2 a game, September 18, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• Player Julian Padin has 519 receiving yards over his last 5 games (103.8 a game, September 11, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 5-game stretch on record.
• Player Dylan Thompson has 6 touchdown catches over his last 6 games (1.0 a game, September 4, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 6-game stretch on record.
• Player M. Thomas has 38 tackles over his last 4 games (9.5 a game, September 18, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• Player Jordan Malikin has gone 2 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the 3rd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 5 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, during the 2025 season.
• Player Julian Padin has 4 touchdown catches over his last 4 games (1.0 a game, September 18, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch since the 4 he had from August 21, 2026 through September 11, 2026.
MILESTONE WATCH
Warren
M. Thomas needs 1 tackle for 75 (averaging 9.2 a game)
Jordan Malikin needs 1 touchdown pass for 30 (averaging 3.6 a game)
Dallas Watson needs 31 receiving yards for 500 (averaging 52.1 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 23 game; last updated Oct 25; roster and numbers checked Sep 10.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
2 CIF-SS runner-up finishes · 1 CIF-SS Player of the Year · 2 league titles
YEAR
HONOR
2024
CIF-SS Division 7 RUNNER-UP (lost to Rio Hondo Prep 43-18)
CIF-SS Defensive Player of the Year (Division 7): KAMARION PEETE
2023
CIF-SS Division 3 RUNNER-UP (lost to St. Bonaventure 24-21)
Gateway LEAGUE CHAMPION (5-0 in league)
2022
Gateway LEAGUE CHAMPION (5-0 in league)
Section and state results and Players of the Year: CIF-SS Record Book. League finishes judged from league schedules on file (2022-2025 seasons); earlier league titles are not on file.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 7/9, sacks allowed 7/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 86.7/100 (+85 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 31.2/100 (-52 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 82.4/100 (-54 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 68.1/100 (-39 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
WAR finished 2025 at 4-8. Made the playoffs (2 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 17-7 over NORWALK (NORWALK finished 91% that season). Toughest loss: 10-13 to ORANGE VISTA (3-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
WAR HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• WAR holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry (.800), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• WAR holds its opponents under 200 passing yards (.588), but most recently lost to La Serna when doing so
• WAR holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.727), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• WAR commits fewer than 2 giveaways (.536), but most recently lost to La Mirada when doing so
• WAR's defense has averaged 0.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 35-game average is 1.3 takeaways per game. (-100%)
• WAR's defense has averaged 255.7 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 25-game average is 137.0 pass yards per game. (+87%)
• WAR's offense has failed to reach 150 rush yds in 8 straight games (08/28/2026-10/23/2026), going 4-4 over that stretch.
• WAR's offense has averaged 1.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 35-game average is 0.7 giveaways per game. (+79%)
• WAR's defense has averaged 497.0 total yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 25-game average is 297.1 total yards per game. (+67%)
• WAR's defense has averaged 38.0 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 35-game average is 23.0 points allowed per game. (+65%)
• WAR's defense has averaged 263.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 160.1 rush yards per game. (+64%)
• WAR's defense has averaged 8.2 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 5.3 YPC. (+54%)
• WAR's offense has averaged 35.4 points scored per game over their last 7 games. Their 35-game average is 23.3 points scored per game. (+52%)
• WAR's defense has averaged 10.8 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 25-game average is 7.1 YPA. (+52%)
• WAR's defense has averaged 8.8 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 6.2 YPP. (+42%)
WAR — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (35 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-9
.000
5.1
Scores 10-19
2-6
.250
15.0
Scores 20-29
3-3
.500
24.2
Scores 30-39
3-1
.750
33.8
Scores 40+
7-1
.875
46.2
WAR — OFFENSE — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
5-1
.833
43.8
W1
YPA < 8.0
0-3
.000
17.3
L3
Pass Yds 200+
4-2
.667
40.0
W1
Pass Yds < 200
1-2
.333
25.0
L2
Rush Yds 100+
2-2
.500
31.2
L1
Rush Yds < 100
3-2
.600
38.0
L2
Rush Yds 150+
1-0
1.000
41.0
W1
Rush Yds < 150
4-4
.500
34.2
L1
YPC 5.0+
1-2
.333
28.0
L1
YPC < 5.0
4-2
.667
38.5
L2
YPP 6.0+
4-2
.667
42.2
L1
YPP < 6.0
1-2
.333
20.7
L2
YPP 7.0+
4-1
.800
44.4
W1
YPP < 7.0
1-3
.250
23.2
L3
Turnovers 1+
3-2
.600
37.2
W1
Turnovers < 1
2-2
.500
32.2
L2
Turnovers 2+
0-2
.000
34.5
L2
Turnovers > 2
0-1
.000
18.0
L1
WAR — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-1
.000
3.0
Scores 10-19
0-1
.000
18.0
Scores 20-29
1-0
1.000
26.0
Scores 30-39
0-1
.000
31.0
Scores 40+
4-1
.800
47.4
WAR — DEFENSE — 2024-26 (35 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
2-9
.182
34.8
L3
YPA < 8.0
8-6
.571
15.9
W2
10 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
0-8
.000
36.4
L8
Pass Yds < 200
10-7
.588
18.5
L1
10 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
6-13
.316
27.5
L3
Rush Yds < 100
4-2
.667
13.8
W4
10 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
5-10
.333
30.7
L3
Rush Yds < 150
5-5
.500
14.6
W2
10 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
2-13
.133
31.8
L3
YPC < 5.0
8-2
.800
12.9
W2
10 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
2-12
.143
32.0
L3
YPP < 6.0
8-3
.727
14.4
W2
10 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
2-9
.182
34.8
L3
YPP < 7.0
8-6
.571
15.9
W2
10 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
14-10
.583
20.2
L2
Turnovers < 1
1-10
.091
29.2
L1
Turnovers 2+
9-6
.600
18.6
L2
Turnovers > 2
4-1
.800
11.8
W4
WAR — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (35 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
7-0
1.000
3.6
Allows 10-19
4-3
.571
13.7
Allows 20-29
3-8
.273
25.7
Allows 30-39
1-3
.250
33.5
Allows 40+
0-6
.000
44.5
WAR — DEFENSE — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
2-3
.400
36.0
L3
YPA < 8.0
2-0
1.000
8.5
W2
2 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
0-2
.000
50.0
L2
Pass Yds < 200
4-1
.800
19.4
L1
2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
2-3
.400
36.0
L3
Rush Yds < 100
2-0
1.000
8.5
W2
2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
2-3
.400
36.0
L3
Rush Yds < 150
2-0
1.000
8.5
W2
2 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
2-3
.400
36.0
L3
YPC < 5.0
2-0
1.000
8.5
W2
2 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
2-3
.400
36.0
L3
YPP < 6.0
2-0
1.000
8.5
W2
2 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
2-3
.400
36.0
L3
YPP < 7.0
2-0
1.000
8.5
W2
2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
4-2
.667
25.2
L2
Turnovers < 1
1-2
.333
36.3
L1
Turnovers 2+
2-2
.500
31.0
L2
Turnovers > 2
1-0
1.000
15.0
W1
WAR — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
1-0
1.000
2.0
Allows 10-19
1-0
1.000
15.0
Allows 20-29
3-1
.750
25.2
Allows 30-39
--
--
--
Allows 40+
0-3
.000
47.3
ON THE BRINK
WARREN
• WARREN is one loss from falling to 5-5 through 10 games — for the first time since 2014. It has happened in 2 of 20 seasons on file.
• WARREN is one win from climbing to 6-4 through 10 games — for the first time since 2017. It has happened in 2 of 20 seasons on file.
• WARREN has scored 30+ in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not scored 30+ in 3 straight since 9/4/26–9/18/26 (2026). It has reached 3 straight 4 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 5 straight (2023) in that span.
WAR's defense has averaged 0.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 35-game average is 1.3 takeaways per game. (-100%)
WAR's defense has averaged 255.7 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 25-game average is 137.0 pass yards per game. (+87%)
WAR's defense has averaged 497.0 total yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 25-game average is 297.1 total yards per game. (+67%)
WAR's defense has averaged 38.0 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 35-game average is 23.0 points allowed per game. (+65%)
WAR's defense has averaged 263.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 160.1 rush yards per game. (+64%)
WAR's defense has averaged 8.2 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 5.3 YPC. (+54%)
WAR's defense has averaged 10.8 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 25-game average is 7.1 YPA. (+52%)
WAR's defense has averaged 8.8 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 6.2 YPP. (+42%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where WARREN sits among 399 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 62.5, Defense Grade 82.5.
PASS YARDS ALLOWED / GAME: WARREN VS THE SECTION
WARREN ranks #20 of 356 section teams in passing yards allowed per game (26.0) -- a strength worth a look.
WARREN: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 25.5 in 2022 to 15.7 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
