In short: Stafford Spartans high school football (Stafford, TX), 2026 season: 6-2. Last game: W 70-0 vs Harmony School Of Innovation on October 23, 2026. Next: at Northside, November 6, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 6-2 this season |
| LAST GAME | W 70-0 vs HARMONY SCHOOL OF INNOVATION |
| NEXT GAME | NORTHSIDE (11/06/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 81.3 · Rush Off 55.7 · Pass Def 86.8 · Rush Def 52.3 |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAFFORD | 81.3 (+64) | 55.7 (+2) | 86.8 (-65) | 52.3 (-8) |
Next: at Northside, Fri 6 Nov. Matchup report: Stafford at Northside.
The number to watch when Stafford meets Northside is Stafford's scoring defense. Stafford allowed 33.0 points per game over its first 5 games (3-2), #805 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (3-0), the Spartans have allowed 4.7 points per game, an 86% drop, #34 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Stafford's last 3 opponents have averaged 19.8 points per game, a #944 offense in section on the season, against 35.5 points per game, #384 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (19.8 points per game), Stafford held those offenses 76% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #1158 in section, well below the first 5 (#291), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Northside's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Panthers have averaged 19.7 points per game over their last 3 games (1-2), #866 in section during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker scoring defenses in section (40.7 points per game on the season, which would rank #1047). Against those norms, Northside scored 52% less than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #1158 in section, a lower level of competition. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Stafford. Stafford is 3-0 this season when it holds opponents under 11, and 3-2 when it doesn't.
The biggest shift in Stafford's season has come in its ground game. Stafford averaged 6.0 yards per carry (711 yards on 119 rushes) over its first 4 games (3-1), #486 in section through those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Spartans have averaged 9.5 yards per carry (783 yards on 82 rushes), a 60% rise, #75 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Stafford's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.3 yards per carry, a #938 run defense in section on the season, against 6.3 yards per carry, #693 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.3 yards per carry), Stafford ran for 32% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #984 in section, well below the first 4 (#327), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Stafford ranks #219 in section in rushing. The trend lines up well against Northside, whose run defense ranks just #1207 of 1234 (11.4 yards per carry).
Stafford's offense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. The Spartans averaged 33.4 points per game over their first 5 games (3-2), #448 in section over that stretch. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (3-0), Stafford has averaged 55.7 points per game, a 67% rise, #77 in section within that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Stafford's last 3 opponents have averaged 40.7 points per game, a #1047 scoring defense in section on the season, against 23.3 points per game, #387 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (40.7 points per game), Stafford scored 37% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #1158 in section, well below the first 5 (#291), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Spartans rank #192 in section in scoring. The trend lines up well against Northside, whose defense ranks just #1176 of 1235 (49.1 points per game). Stafford is 3-0 this season when it scores 50 or more, and 3-2 when it doesn't.
Something changed for Stafford's run defense after its first 4 games. Stafford allowed 5.9 yards per carry (747 yards on 127 rushes) over its first 4 games (3-1), #610 in section across those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Spartans have allowed 4.8 yards per carry (481 yards on 100 rushes), an 18% drop, #320 in section during those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Stafford's last 4 opponents have averaged 5.2 yards per carry, a #694 rushing attack in section on the season, against 6.3 yards per carry, #434 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.2 yards per carry), Stafford held those rushing attacks 7% below their usual yards per carry. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #984 in section, well below the first 4 (#327), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Stafford ranks #425 in section in run defense. Northside's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #632 in section (5.4 yards per carry).
• Club Stafford has won 3 straight, and a win would make it 4 in a row. The last time they won 4 or more in a row was 2022, a run of 5.
• Club The last time Stafford went a game forcing 3+ turnovers was September 20, 2024 against Calhoun (W, 20-13). Since then Stafford has gone 29 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers, a school-record 29 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Stafford has gone 7 straight games averaging 8.0+ yards per attempt (September 4, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 5-2 over that stretch, a school-record 7 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Stafford has gone 7 straight games averaging 6.0+ yards per play (September 4, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 5-2 over that stretch, a school-record 7 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Stafford is 14-0 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points in the games on file (14 such games).
• Club Stafford has scored 167 points over its last 3 games (55.7 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- its most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Sean Moorehead has 32 tackles over his last 3 games (10.7 a game, November 7, 2025 through September 18, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Nate Ray has gone 4 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 9 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, during the 2025 season.
• Player Aiden Seales has gone 3 straight games catching a touchdown pass, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 9 straight games catching a touchdown pass, during the 2025 season.
• Player Denim Steed has gone 6 straight games without intercepting a pass. The last time he intercepted a pass was October 24, 2025 against Brazosport (W, 34-20) — 1 interception.
From the games on file through Oct 30.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 30 game; last updated Oct 31; roster and numbers checked Sep 13.
| PASSING | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| 2 | NATE RAY | 9 | 68/119 | 57.1% | 1,617 | 13.6 | 22 | 4 | 225.6 |
| 9 | JAVONNE PURVIS | 8 | 3/3 | 100.0% | 26 | 8.7 | 1 | 0 | 282.8 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 9 | 71/122 | 58.2% | 1,643 | 13.5 | 23 | 4 | 227.0 | |
| RUSHING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| 2 | NATE RAY | 9 | 90 | 696 | 7.7 | 6 |
| 5 | AIDEN SEALES | 9 | 61 | 426 | 7.0 | 5 |
| 34 | JAQOURI HILL | 8 | 31 | 223 | 7.2 | 3 |
| 23 | ISAIAH UKPE | 9 | 41 | 191 | 4.7 | 5 |
| 17 | JOSHUA THOMPSON | 5 | 2 | 63 | 31.5 | 0 |
| 9 | JAVONNE PURVIS | 8 | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| 10 | CAMARI SIMMONS | 7 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| 28 | JEAN MANIRAMBONA | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 9 | 234 | 1,649 | 7.0 | 19 | |
| RECEIVING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | REC | YDS | YPR | TD |
| 5 | AIDEN SEALES | 9 | 25 | 500 | 20.0 | 7 |
| 8 | MADDOX PITRE | 7 | 15 | 431 | 28.7 | 8 |
| 10 | CAMARI SIMMONS | 7 | 11 | 285 | 25.9 | 1 |
| 6 | DENIM STEED | 8 | 3 | 119 | 39.7 | 2 |
| 9 | JAVONNE PURVIS | 8 | 5 | 91 | 18.2 | 2 |
| 17 | JOSHUA THOMPSON | 5 | 6 | 62 | 10.3 | 2 |
| 23 | ISAIAH UKPE | 9 | 1 | 60 | 60.0 | 0 |
| 4 | COREY RICHARDSON JR. | 7 | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 1 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 9 | 69 | 1,566 | 22.7 | 23 | |
| DEFENSE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | TCKL | TFL | SACKS | INT | INT YDS | PD | FF |
| 4 | COREY RICHARDSON JR. | 7 | 54 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 0 | SEAN MOOREHEAD | 5 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 | JEAN MANIRAMBONA | 8 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | JAYCE WATKINS | 6 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 | DERRION ROBERTSON | 7 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | JAVONNE PURVIS | 8 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 | ISRAEL COLLINS | 6 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | DENIM STEED | 8 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 51 | KORION SHORTER | 7 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 50 | ELIJAH WILLIAMS | 4 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 47 | DYLLON GREEN | 6 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | JEREMIAH MCWILLIAMS | 6 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | PRESTON SNOWDEN | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 41 | PETER KABANDA | 4 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 61 | JAKOBE BUTLER | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 85 | CEDRIC LABASSIERE | 3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | OBINNA MADUAGWU | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 45 | MARQUIS COLLINS | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 40 | CAINE HUBBARD | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 | MAR'QUE LEWIS | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | AIDEN SEALES | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 56 | GAGE HARRIS | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 52 | WILLIAM JONES | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 55 | EAN BRESSLER | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | FERNANDO CORREA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 9 | 391 | 43 | 20 | 6 | 136 | 2 | 4 | |
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2022 | 7-5 | 281 | 254 | 23.4 |
| 2023 | 4-6 | 200 | 269 | 20.0 |
| 2024 | 8-5 | 196 | 222 | 15.1 |
| 2025 | 6-6 | 294 | 350 | 24.5 |
| 2026 | 6-2 | 334 | 179 | 41.8 |
| 2022-26 | 31-24 | 23.7 |
Stafford beat Harmony School Of Innovation 70-0 at home on Friday, October 23, its 3rd straight win. Stafford split 207 yards between 80 on the ground and 127 through the air.
Nate Ray completed 3 of 3 for 115 yards and 3 touchdowns. Aiden Seales caught 2 passes for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns. Israel Collins had 4 tackles, 4 for loss and 3 sacks.
Stafford won the turnover battle 2-0. In the 3-game winning streak it has forced 3.0 turnovers and given the ball away 2.0 times. Stafford is 6-2, #421 TX section. Up next: vs Sterling, Fri Oct 30.
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Final + team statsFinal + top performersScoreboard + takeaways| # | Team | Dist | Ovr | Rank | Proj. | Dist. pts | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | STAFFORD | 3-0 | 6-2 | 37 / 421 | 1 (4.8-0.2) | 167-14 | 10/30 vs STERLING |
| 2 | STERLING | 3-0 | 5-3 | 68 / 767 | 2 (3.7-1.3) | 183-0 | 10/30 vs STAFFORD |
| 3 | FORT BEND WILLOWRIDGE | 2-1 | 4-4 | 76 / 815 | 3 (3.4-1.6) | 156-35 | 10/31 vs AUSTIN |
| 4 | AUSTIN | 1-2 | 2-6 | 102 / 1203 | 4 (1.8-3.2) | 58-123 | |
| 5 | NORTHSIDE | 1-3 | 2-7 | 105 / 1239 | 5 (1.0-4.0) | 59-214 | 11/06 vs STAFFORD |
| 6 | HARMONY SCHOOL OF INNOVATION | 0-4 | 0-8 | 106 / 1243 | 6 (0.2-4.8) | 26-263 | 11/07 vs AUSTIN |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/28 | HITCHCOCK | at | W | 43-42 | |
| 09/04 | WALTRIP | vs | W | 51-7 | |
| 09/11 | BELLVILLE | at | W | 29-25 | |
| 09/18 | HAMSHIRE-FANNETT | vs | L | 14-42 | |
| 09/25 | SILSBEE | at | L | 30-49 | |
| 10/09 | AUSTIN | vs | W | 62-0 | |
| 10/15 | FORT BEND WILLOWRIDGE | at | W | 35-14 | |
| 10/23 | HARMONY SCHOOL OF INNOVATION | vs | W | 70-0 | |
| 10/30 | STERLING | vs | PROJ | 30-22 | 65.3% |
| 11/06 | NORTHSIDE | at | PROJ | 49-5 | 98.4% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 6-2 | 2 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 6-2 so far | 8-2 (63%) | 7.6-2.4 |
| League | 3-0 so far | 3-0 (100%) | 3.0-0.0 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 8 | 41.8 | 22.4 | 367.1 | 287.2 | 37.4 | 51.2 |
| HOME | 4 | 49.2 | 12.2 | 337.5 | 282.3 | 28.5 | 46.3 |
| ROAD | 4 | 34.2 | 32.5 | 396.8 | 292.0 | 46.2 | 56.0 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 8/28 | @ Hitchcock | W 43-42 | 133 | 172 | 305 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9/4 | vs. Waltrip | W 51-7 | 276 | 203 | 479 | 61 | 113 | 174 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
| 9/11 | @ Bellville | W 29-25 | 75 | 263 | 338 | 28 | 365 | 393 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| 9/18 | vs. Hamshire-Fannett | L 14-42 | 169 | 73 | 242 | 269 | 269 | 538 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 |
| 9/25 | @ Silsbee | L 30-49 | 320 | 230 | 550 | 50 | 296 | 346 | -- | -- | -- | 1 | -1 |
| 10/9 | vs. Austin | W 62-0 | 178 | 244 | 422 | 43 | 92 | 135 | -- | -- | -- | 1 | +1 |
| 10/15 | @ Fort Bend Willowridge | W 35-14 | 165 | 229 | 394 | 44 | 93 | 137 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -2 |
| 10/23 | vs. HSI | W 70-0 | 127 | 80 | 207 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 2 | +2 |
| AVERAGES | 180.4 | 186.8 | 367.1 | 82.5 | 204.7 | 287.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | -2 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 6/8, sacks/INT 4/8, sacks allowed 3/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 81.3/100 (+64 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 55.7/100 (+2 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 86.8/100 (-65 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 52.3/100 (-8 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-10-30 | vs | STERLING | 5-3 | 35.4 |
| 2026-11-06 | at | NORTHSIDE | 1-7 | 5.9 |
LAST YEAR
STA finished 2025 at 6-6. Made the playoffs (2 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 47-38 over NAVASOTA (NAVASOTA finished 67% that season). Toughest loss: 7-24 to BELLVILLE (17-point margin).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | RECORD | PF | PA | TOT YDS | YDS ALLOWED |
| 2025-08-29 | IOWA COLONY | L | 0-1 | 7 | 41 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-05 | BELLVILLE | L | 0-2 | 7 | 24 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-12 | SWEENY | W | 1-2 | 49 | 17 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-19 | CALHOUN | L | 1-3 | 8 | 32 | 277 | 227 |
| 2025-09-26 | HAMSHIRE-FANNETT | L | 1-4 | 14 | 31 | 246 | 282 |
| 2025-10-10 | FORT BEND WILLOWRIDGE | W | 2-4 | 42 | 27 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-17 | NAVASOTA | W | 3-4 | 47 | 38 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-24 | BRAZOSPORT | W | 4-4 | 34 | 20 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-31 | ALMETA CRAWFORD | L | 4-5 | 6 | 54 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-07 | NEEDVILLE | W | 5-5 | 31 | 17 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-14 | WHEATLEY | W | 6-5 | 49 | 7 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-21 | KILGORE | L | 6-6 | 0 | 42 | N/A | N/A |
| TOTALS | 12 GMS | 6-6 | 6-6 | 294 | 350 | 523 (2) | 509 (2) |
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
• STA holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.833), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• STA rushes for 150+ yards (.933), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• STA commits fewer than 2 giveaways (.857), and has won 5 straight when doing so
• STA holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry (.667), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• STA's offense has averaged 55.7 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 25.0 points scored per game. (+123%)
• STA's defense has averaged 4.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 22.8 points allowed per game. (-79%)
• STA's offense has exceeded 8.0 YPA in 7 straight games (09/04/2026-10/23/2026), going 5-2 over that stretch.
• STA's offense has exceeded 6.0 YPP in 7 straight games (09/04/2026-10/23/2026), going 5-2 over that stretch.
• STA's offense has exceeded 7.0 YPP in 7 straight games (09/04/2026-10/23/2026), going 5-2 over that stretch.
• STA holds its opponents under 50.0 passing yards (STA's own median) (.999)
• STA holds its opponents under 4.3 yards per play (STA's own median) (.999)
• STA's offense has averaged 9.6 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 6.4 YPC. (+50%)
• STA's defense has averaged 92.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 182.9 rush yards per game. (-49%)
• STA rushes for 129.0+ yards (STA's own median) (.938)
• STA's defense has averaged 136.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 267.9 total yards per game. (-49%)
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
STA -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 13 scored; vs 478 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | Rush Yds 150+ | 14-1 | .933 | 38.7 | W2 | 0.869 |
| 2 | OFF | Turnovers < 3 | 7-2 | .778 | 39.3 | W3 | 0.749 |
| 3 | OFF | Rush Yds 100+ | 15-3 | .833 | 34.7 | W2 | 0.731 |
| 4 | OFF | YPC 5+ | 6-2 | .750 | 41.8 | W3 | 0.682 |
| 5 | DEF | Pass Yds < 200 | 5-3 | .625 | 21.4 | W2 | 0.622 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- STA ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| STA rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 13-2 | .867 | 33.1 | W8 |
| STA averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards | 5-1 | .833 | 41.7 | W2 |
| STA averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards | 4-1 | .800 | 41.4 | W2 |
| STA holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards | 3-2 | .600 | 16.8 | W3 |
| STA holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry and under 150 rushing yards | 3-2 | .600 | 16.8 | W3 |
| STA holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt and under 5.0 yards per carry | 4-0 | .999 | 8.5 | W4 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| STA | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 13-2 | .867 | 33.1 |
| STA | YPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 5-1 | .833 | 41.7 |
| STA | YPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 4-1 | .800 | 41.4 |
| STA | Rush Yds < 150 & Pass Yds < 200 | 3-2 | .600 | 16.8 |
| STA | YPC < 5.0 & Rush Yds < 150 | 3-2 | .600 | 16.8 |
| STA | YPA < 8.0 & YPC < 5.0 | 4-0 | .999 | 8.5 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 6-3 | .667 | 35.4 | W3 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 2-1 | .667 | 23.7 | W1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 3-1 | .750 | 36.2 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 17-10 | .630 | 24.8 | W3 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 15-3 | .833 | 34.7 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 5-8 | .385 | 14.6 | W1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 14-1 | .933 | 38.7 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 6-10 | .375 | 14.6 | W1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 6-2 | .750 | 41.8 | W3 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 2-2 | .500 | 14.0 | L2 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 5-3 | .625 | 38.1 | W3 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 3-1 | .750 | 21.2 | W1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 5-2 | .714 | 41.6 | W3 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-2 | .600 | 19.8 | W1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-4 | .500 | 24.1 | W1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 61.0 | W3 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-3 | .250 | 21.8 | W1 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 11.0 | L2 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-9 | .000 | 4.6 |
| Scores 10-19 | 4-3 | .571 | 13.7 |
| Scores 20-29 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 25.8 |
| Scores 30-39 | 3-1 | .750 | 32.5 |
| Scores 40+ | 9-0 | 1.000 | 50.4 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 5-2 | .714 | 41.6 | W3 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 43.0 | W1 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-1 | .500 | 40.5 | L1 |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 5-1 | .833 | 42.2 | W3 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 5-1 | .833 | 41.7 | W2 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-1 | .500 | 42.0 | W1 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 5-1 | .833 | 41.7 | W2 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 1-1 | .500 | 42.0 | W1 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 6-1 | .857 | 45.7 | W3 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-1 | .000 | 14.0 | L1 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 5-2 | .714 | 41.6 | W3 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 43.0 | W1 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 5-2 | .714 | 41.6 | W3 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 43.0 | W1 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-2 | .600 | 30.2 | W1 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 61.0 | W3 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-2 | .333 | 26.3 | W1 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-1 | .000 | 14.0 | L1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-1 | .000 | 14.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 29.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 1-1 | .500 | 32.5 |
| Scores 40+ | 4-0 | 1.000 | 56.5 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-3 | .000 | 35.0 | L3 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 5-1 | .833 | 18.0 | W2 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-1 | .000 | 42.0 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 5-3 | .625 | 21.4 | W2 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 3-4 | .429 | 28.4 | L2 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 | W2 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 2-2 | .500 | 32.2 | L2 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 3-2 | .600 | 16.8 | W3 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 38.7 | L2 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 4-2 | .667 | 16.2 | W3 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 32.7 | L1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 4-2 | .667 | 19.2 | W2 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-1 | .000 | 42.0 | L1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 5-3 | .625 | 21.4 | W2 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 5-2 | .714 | 21.9 | W2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 19.5 | W2 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 6.5 | W2 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 | W1 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 8-0 | 1.000 | 3.6 |
| Allows 10-19 | 7-0 | 1.000 | 13.4 |
| Allows 20-29 | 3-3 | .500 | 25.3 |
| Allows 30-39 | 1-4 | .200 | 33.0 |
| Allows 40+ | 1-6 | .143 | 44.4 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-1 | .000 | 42.0 | L1 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 4-1 | .800 | 19.0 | W2 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-1 | .000 | 42.0 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 4-1 | .800 | 19.0 | W2 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 2-2 | .500 | 30.8 | L2 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 | W2 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 1-2 | .333 | 38.7 | L2 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 | W3 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 38.7 | L2 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 | W3 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 33.5 | L1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 3-1 | .750 | 17.5 | W2 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-1 | .000 | 42.0 | L1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 4-1 | .800 | 19.0 | W2 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-2 | .667 | 23.3 | W2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 19.5 | W2 | |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 0.0 | W1 | |
| Turnovers > 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 2.3 |
| Allows 10-19 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 25.0 |
| Allows 30-39 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 40+ | 1-2 | .333 | 44.3 |
STAFFORD
• STAFFORD has won by 20+ in 3 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• STAFFORD has scored 30+ in 4 straight games (9/25/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 5 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• STAFFORD has won 3 straight (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| STA | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 9 | 6-3 | .667 | 35.4 | W3 |
| STA | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 23.7 | W1 |
| STA | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 36.2 | L1 |
| STA | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 27 | 17-10 | .630 | 24.8 | W3 |
| STA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 18 | 15-3 | .833 | 34.7 | W2 |
| STA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 13 | 5-8 | .385 | 14.6 | W1 |
| STA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 15 | 14-1 | .933 | 38.7 | W2 |
| STA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 16 | 6-10 | .375 | 14.6 | W1 |
| STA | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 8 | 6-2 | .750 | 41.8 | W3 |
| STA | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 14.0 | L2 |
| STA | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 8 | 5-3 | .625 | 38.1 | W3 |
| STA | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 21.2 | W1 |
| STA | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 41.6 | W3 |
| STA | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 19.8 | W1 |
| STA | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 8 | 4-4 | .500 | 24.1 | W1 |
| STA | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 61.0 | W3 |
| STA | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 21.8 | W1 |
| STA | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 11.0 | L2 |
| STA | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 9 | 0-9 | .000 | 4.6 | L9 |
| STA | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 7 | 4-3 | .571 | 13.7 | L2 |
| STA | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 25.8 | W4 |
| STA | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 32.5 | W1 |
| STA | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 9 | 9-0 | 1.000 | 50.4 | W9 |
| STA | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 35.0 | L3 |
| STA | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 18.0 | W2 |
| STA | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 42.0 | L1 |
| STA | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 8 | 5-3 | .625 | 21.4 | W2 |
| STA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 28.4 | L2 |
| STA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 | W2 |
| STA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 32.2 | L2 |
| STA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 16.8 | W3 |
| STA | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 38.7 | L2 |
| STA | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 16.2 | W3 |
| STA | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 32.7 | L1 |
| STA | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 19.2 | W2 |
| STA | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 42.0 | L1 |
| STA | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 8 | 5-3 | .625 | 21.4 | W2 |
| STA | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 21.9 | W2 |
| STA | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 19.5 | W2 |
| STA | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 6.5 | W2 |
| STA | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 | W1 |
| STA | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 8 | 8-0 | 1.000 | 3.6 | W8 |
| STA | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 7 | 7-0 | 1.000 | 13.4 | W7 |
| STA | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 25.3 | W3 |
| STA | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 33.0 | W1 |
| STA | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 7 | 1-6 | .143 | 44.4 | L2 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 7 games | 09/04/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 5-2 |
| OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 7 games | 09/04/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 5-2 |
| OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 7 games | 09/04/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 5-2 |
| OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 4 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 3-1 |
| OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 3-0 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
| STA | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 7 games | 09/04/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 5-2 |
| STA | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 7 games | 09/04/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 5-2 |
| STA | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 7 games | 09/04/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 5-2 |
| STA | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 4 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 3-1 |
| STA | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 3-0 |
STA OFFENSE
STA's offense has averaged 55.7 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 25.0 points scored per game. (+123%)
STA's offense has averaged 9.6 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 6.4 YPC. (+50%)
STA's offense has averaged 20.6 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 13.8 YPA. (+49%)
STA's offense has averaged 0.7 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 1.3 giveaways per game. (-48%)
STA's offense has averaged 191.8 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 31-game average is 134.4 pass yards per game. (+43%)
STA's offense has averaged 12.6 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 8.8 YPP. (+43%)
STA's offense has averaged 376.0 total yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 31-game average is 270.9 total yards per game. (+39%)
STA's offense has averaged 188.9 rush yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 31-game average is 136.5 rush yards per game. (+38%)
STA DEFENSE
STA's defense has averaged 4.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 22.8 points allowed per game. (-79%)
STA's defense has averaged 92.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 182.9 rush yards per game. (-49%)
STA's defense has averaged 136.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 267.9 total yards per game. (-49%)
STA's defense has averaged 43.5 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 85.0 pass yards per game. (-49%)
STA's defense has averaged 3.9 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 6.3 YPA. (-39%)
STA's defense has averaged 3.8 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 5.2 YPP. (-28%)
STA's defense has averaged 0.9 takeaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 9-game average is 1.1 takeaways per game. (-23%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| STA | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 43.5 | 9 | 85.0 | -48.8% | |
| STA | OFFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 5 | 191.8 | 31 | 134.4 | +42.7% | |
| STA | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 4.7 | 33 | 22.8 | -79.5% | |
| STA | OFFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 55.7 | 33 | 25.0 | +122.9% | |
| STA | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 92.5 | 9 | 182.9 | -49.4% | |
| STA | OFFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 7 | 188.9 | 31 | 136.5 | +38.4% | |
| STA | DEFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 136.0 | 9 | 267.9 | -49.2% | |
| STA | OFFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 7 | 376.0 | 31 | 270.9 | +38.8% | |
| STA | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 7 | 0.9 | 9 | 1.1 | -22.9% | |
| STA | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 0.7 | 11 | 1.3 | -47.6% | |
| STA | DEFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 3.9 | 9 | 6.3 | -39.1% | |
| STA | OFFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 20.6 | 12 | 13.8 | +49.0% | |
| STA | OFFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 9.6 | 12 | 6.4 | +50.2% | |
| STA | DEFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 3.8 | 9 | 5.2 | -27.8% | |
| STA | OFFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 12.6 | 12 | 8.8 | +42.5% |
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 6.3 in 2022 to 11.5 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
