In short: Navasota Rattlers high school football (Navasota, TX), 2026 season: 5-4. Last game: L 36-51 vs El Campo on October 30, 2026. Next: vs Needville, November 6, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 5-4 this season |
| LAST GAME | L 36-51 vs EL CAMPO |
| NEXT GAME | NEEDVILLE (11/06/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 96.7 · Rush Off 73.4 · Pass Def 22.5 · Rush Def 18.0 |
| ENROLLMENT | 933 STUDENTS (2023-24) |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVASOTA | 96.7 (+162) | 73.4 (+46) | 22.5 (+38) | 18.0 (+72) |
Next: vs Needville, Fri 6 Nov. Matchup report: Needville at Navasota.
The turnover battle could decide Navasota's next game, against Needville, and the recent returns favor Needville. Navasota forced 1.6 takeaways per game over its first 5 games (4-1), #334 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Rattlers have forced 0.5 takeaways per game, a 69% drop, #912 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Navasota's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.2 per game, a #544 offense in section on the season, against 1.3 per game, #734 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.2 per game), Navasota forced 57% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #250 in section, well above the first 5 (#527), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Conversely, Needville's ball security has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Bluejays have committed 0.5 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (2-2), #166 in section during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker defenses in section (0.8 per game on the season, which would rank #921). Against those norms, Needville turned it over 40% less than those defenses usually force. Unless Navasota's defense rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Needville.
The number to watch when Navasota meets Needville is Navasota's run defense. Navasota allowed 5.5 yards per carry (1,029 yards on 186 rushes) over its first 5 games (4-1), #508 in section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Rattlers have allowed 8.8 yards per carry (1,102 yards on 125 rushes), a 59% rise, #1028 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Navasota's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.2 yards per carry, a #261 rushing attack in section on the season, against 6.1 yards per carry, #481 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.2 yards per carry), Navasota allowed 23% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #250 in section, well above the first 5 (#527), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Needville's ground game has struggled in recent weeks. The Bluejays have averaged 4.5 yards per carry (674 yards on 150 rushes) over their last 4 games (2-2), #736 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better run defenses in section (5.3 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #400). Against those norms, Needville ran for 16% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.
The biggest worry in Navasota's season has been the direction of its offense. Navasota averaged 48.6 points per game over its first 5 games (4-1), #56 in section within that period. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Rattlers have averaged 21.2 points per game, a 56% drop, #845 in section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Navasota's last 4 opponents have averaged 19.6 points per game, a #234 scoring defense in section on the season, against 32.2 points per game, #782 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (19.6 points per game), Navasota scored 8% more than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #250 in section, well above the first 5 (#527), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Navasota ranks #347 in section in scoring. Needville's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #621 in section (28.2 points per game). Navasota is 4-2 this season when it scores 29 or more, and 1-2 when it doesn't.
The Rattlers averaged 12.7 yards per pass attempt (1,360 yards on 107 attempts) over their first 4 games (3-1), #47 in section during those games. Few teams started faster in this department, and few have cooled off as sharply since. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), Navasota has averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt (584 yards on 75 attempts), a 39% drop, #523 in section during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 8.4 yards per attempt on the season. On the season, the Rattlers rank #144 in section in passing. Needville's pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #759 in section (8.6 yards per attempt).
Navasota's defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Navasota allowed 6.6 yards per play (1,841 yards on 277 snaps) over its first 5 games (4-1), #578 in section during that stretch. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Rattlers have allowed 9.2 yards per play (1,438 yards on 157 snaps), a 38% rise, #978 in section over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Navasota's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.7 yards per play, a #327 offense in section on the season, against 6.8 yards per play, #521 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.7 yards per play), Navasota allowed 19% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #250 in section, well above the first 5 (#527), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Navasota ranks #834 in section in yards per play allowed. Needville's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #641 in section (6.4 yards per play).
Something changed for Navasota's offense after its first 4 games. The Rattlers averaged 9.5 yards per play (2,369 yards on 249 snaps) over their first 4 games (3-1), #64 in section over that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), Navasota has averaged 6.0 yards per play (1,055 yards on 175 snaps), a 37% drop, #653 in section over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Navasota's last 5 opponents have averaged 6.4 yards per play, a #452 defense in section on the season, against 7.4 yards per play, #799 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.4 yards per play), Navasota gained 5% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. On the season, the Rattlers rank #259 in section in yards per play. Needville's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #709 in section (7.1 yards per play).
Navasota's ground game has bogged down on the ground as the season has progressed. Navasota averaged 7.1 yards per carry (1,009 yards on 142 rushes) over its first 4 games (3-1), #252 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Rattlers have averaged 4.7 yards per carry (471 yards on 100 rushes), a 34% drop, #736 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Navasota's last 5 opponents have averaged 5.5 yards per carry, a #453 run defense in section on the season, against 6.6 yards per carry, #788 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.5 yards per carry), Navasota ran for 14% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. On the season, Navasota ranks #478 in section in rushing. Needville's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #703 in section (6.3 yards per carry).
• Club Navasota has lost 2 straight, and a loss would make it 3 in a row. The last time they lost 3 or more in a row was 2024, a run of 3.
• Club The last time Navasota went a game being held under 100 rushing yards was November 29, 2024 against Kilgore (L, 7-62). Since then Navasota has gone 21 straight games rushing for 100+ yards, a school-record 21 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Navasota has gone 6 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers (September 18, 2026 through October 30, 2026), going 3-3 over that stretch, a school-record 6 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Navasota is 18-1 all time when scoring 40+ points. Navasota's last loss when scoring 40+ points was October 6, 2023 against Needville (L, 42-56).
• Club Navasota has allowed 140 points over its last 4 games (35.0 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 30, 2026) -- its 5th-highest 4-game total on record; the most is 167, from September 22, 2023 through October 13, 2023.
• Player Jace Jablonski has gone 13 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Cameron Burrell has gone 6 straight games rushing for 100+ yards, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Cameron Burrell has 8 rushing touchdowns over his last 4 games (2.0 a game, September 18, 2026 through October 9, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• Player Jace Jablonski has 1448 passing yards over his last 6 games (241.3 a game, September 4, 2026 through October 9, 2026) -- his most in a 6-game stretch on record.
• Player Jayden Spriggs has 503 receiving yards over his last 4 games (125.8 a game, September 18, 2026 through October 9, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• Player Jayden Spriggs has gone 2 straight games catching a touchdown pass, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 4 straight games catching a touchdown pass, during the 2026 season.
DATA WARNING: NAVASOTA OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/30/2026 GAME @ EL CAMPO* MISSING
DATA WARNING: NAVASOTA OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/23/2026 GAME VS. SEALY* MISSING
All stat areas in this report are subject to change as box scores are updated.
From the games on file through Oct 9.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 9 game; last updated Nov 6; roster and numbers checked Oct 27.
| PASSING | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| 5 | JACE JABLONSKI | 7 | 128/181 | 70.7% | 1,944 | 10.7 | 17 | 4 | 187.5 |
| 11 | JAYDEN SPRIGGS | 7 | 0/1 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 7 | 128/182 | 70.3% | 1,944 | 10.7 | 17 | 4 | 186.5 | |
| RUSHING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| 0 | CAMERON BURRELL | 7 | 134 | 827 | 6.2 | 12 |
| 5 | JACE JABLONSKI | 7 | 54 | 303 | 5.6 | 6 |
| 22 | KYNNAVION CHAPPEL | 1 | 22 | 205 | 9.3 | 3 |
| 14 | TRYSTAN CROSS | 3 | 20 | 103 | 5.2 | 0 |
| 27 | KHELTON HUNT | 1 | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| 25 | JAYDON THOMAS | 2 | 4 | 13 | 3.2 | 0 |
| 10 | QUINCY MCLEAN | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 7 | 242 | 1,480 | 6.1 | 22 | |
| RECEIVING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | REC | YDS | YPR | TD |
| 11 | JAYDEN SPRIGGS | 7 | 54 | 898 | 16.6 | 9 |
| 1 | CAYSIEN DOUGLAS | 6 | 40 | 585 | 14.6 | 6 |
| 18 | ANGEL DELAROSA | 5 | 7 | 78 | 11.1 | 0 |
| 0 | CAMERON BURRELL | 7 | 7 | 76 | 10.9 | 0 |
| 14 | TRYSTAN CROSS | 3 | 2 | 68 | 34.0 | 1 |
| 3 | DEKAVION MCGINTY | 1 | 3 | 59 | 19.7 | 1 |
| 6 | KRISTOFER KNIGHTON | 3 | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 0 |
| 12 | JABRELL JOYCE | 1 | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 0 |
| 2 | EVAN MAGALLON | 1 | 1 | 37 | 37.0 | 0 |
| 22 | KYNNAVION CHAPPEL | 1 | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| 4 | AHMARI WILLIAMS | 1 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 7 | 128 | 1,944 | 15.2 | 17 | |
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2022 | 6-4 | 301 | 255 | 30.1 |
| 2023 | 4-6 | 227 | 289 | 22.7 |
| 2024 | 7-6 | 407 | 387 | 31.3 |
| 2025 | 8-4 | 494 | 312 | 41.2 |
| 2026 | 5-4 | 328 | 279 | 36.4 |
| 2022-26 | 30-24 | 32.5 |
2 UIL state titles · 1 state final loss · 3 title-game MVPs
| YEAR | HONOR |
| 2014 | UIL STATE 4A D1 CHAMPION (def. Argyle 42-35) |
| UIL STATE TITLE GAME OFFENSIVE MVP (4A D1): TREN’DAVIAN DICKSON (WR) | |
| 2012 | UIL STATE 3A D2 CHAMPION (def. Gilmer 39-3) |
| UIL STATE TITLE GAME DEFENSIVE MVP (3A D2): JORDAN WELLS (DL) | |
| UIL STATE TITLE GAME OFFENSIVE MVP (3A D2): AUSTIN COLLINS (WR) | |
| 1988 | UIL STATE 3A RUNNER-UP (lost to Southlake Carroll 42-8) |
State championship games and title-game MVPs: UIL Fall Almanac 2025-26. League finishes: no league schedule on file yet, so none is claimed.
Navasota fell to El Campo 36-51 on the road on Friday, October 30, its 2nd straight loss. The defense turned a 483-yard night for El Campo into 51 points.
For El Campo, Vladamir Garcia ran 27 times for 327 yards and 4 touchdowns; Andy Russell caught 3 passes for 62 yards and a touchdown and added 7 tackles and an interception on defense.
Navasota lost the turnover battle 0-2. Navasota is 5-4, #279 TX section. Up next: vs Needville, Fri Nov 6.
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Final + team statsFinal + top performersScoreboard + takeaways| # | Team | Dist | Ovr | Rank | Proj. | Dist. pts | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAY CITY | 6-0 | 9-1 | 3 / 81 | 1 (6.0-0.0) | 227-61 | |
| 2 | EL CAMPO | 4-1 | 8-1 | 9 / 152 | 2 (4.6-1.4) | 195-120 | 11/06 vs SEALY |
| 3 | SEALY | 4-1 | 6-3 | 11 / 168 | 3 (4.4-1.6) | 164-62 | 11/06 vs EL CAMPO |
| 4 | NEEDVILLE | 2-3 | 5-4 | 36 / 411 | 5 (2.4-3.6) | 132-112 | 11/06 vs NAVASOTA |
| 5 | NAVASOTA | 2-3 | 5-4 | 25 / 279 | 4 (2.6-3.4) | 131-167 | 11/06 vs NEEDVILLE |
| 6 | ROYAL | 0-5 | 3-6 | 65 / 741 | 6 (0.6-5.4) | 34-189 | 11/06 vs COLUMBIA |
| 7 | COLUMBIA | 0-5 | 0-9 | 81 / 871 | 7 (0.4-5.6) | 48-220 | 11/06 vs ROYAL |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/28 | LA GRANGE | at | W | 61-42 | |
| 09/04 | MADISONVILLE | vs | W | 56-28 | |
| 09/11 | VIDOR | at | L | 31-34 | |
| 09/18 | STERLING | vs | W | 49-8 | |
| 09/25 | COLUMBIA | at | W | 46-27 | |
| 10/02 | BAY CITY | vs | L | 21-28 | |
| 10/09 | ROYAL | at | W | 21-13 | |
| 10/23 | SEALY | vs | L | 7-48 | |
| 10/30 | EL CAMPO | at | L | 36-51 | |
| 11/06 | NEEDVILLE | vs | PROJ | 33-28 | 59.3% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 5-4 | 1 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 5-4 so far | 6-4 (59%) | 5.6-4.4 |
| League | 2-3 so far | 2-3 (100%) | 2.0-3.0 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 9 | 36.4 | 31.0 | 489.1 | 409.9 | 60.6 | 54.2 |
| HOME | 4 | 33.2 | 28.0 | 525.3 | 416.0 | 60.3 | 54.2 |
| ROAD | 5 | 39.0 | 33.4 | 462.0 | 403.8 | 60.8 | 54.2 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Box-score coverage behind YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME: Overall 7/9 game(s), Home 3/4 game(s), Road 4/5 game(s).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 8/28 | @ La Grange | W 61-42 | 496 | 294 | 790 | 205 | 236 | 441 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9/4 | vs. Madisonville | W 56-28 | 414 | 273 | 687 | 236 | 292 | 528 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 |
| 9/11 | @ Vidor | L 31-34 | 138 | 227 | 365 | 49 | 312 | 361 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 9/18 | vs. Sterling | W 49-8 | 312 | 215 | 527 | 164 | 17 | 181 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9/25 | @ Columbia | W 46-27 | 164 | 214 | 378 | 158 | 172 | 330 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 |
| 10/2 | vs. Bay City | L 21-28 | 227 | 135 | 362 | 206 | 234 | 440 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 |
| 10/9 | @ Royal | W 21-13 | 193 | 122 | 315 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10/23 | vs. Sealy | L 7-48 | -- | -- | -- | 19 | 496 | 515 | 3 | -- | -- | 1 | -2 |
| 10/30 | @ El Campo | L 36-51 | -- | -- | -- | 111 | 372 | 483 | 0 | -- | -- | 0 | -2 |
| AVERAGES | 277.7 | 211.4 | 489.1 | 143.5 | 266.4 | 409.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 7/9, defense 8/9, sacks/INT 7/9, sacks allowed 8/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 96.7/100 (+162 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 73.4/100 (+46 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 22.5/100 (+38 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 18.0/100 (+72 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-11-06 | vs | NEEDVILLE | 5-4 | 29.4 |
LAST YEAR
NAV finished 2025 at 8-4. Made the playoffs (2 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 56-12 over NORTH FOREST (NORTH FOREST finished 73% that season). Toughest loss: 27-28 to BRIDGE CITY (1-point margin).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | RECORD | PF | PA | TOT YDS | YDS ALLOWED |
| 2025-08-29 | SEALY | L | 0-1 | 18 | 33 | N/A | 425 |
| 2025-09-05 | MADISONVILLE | W | 1-1 | 31 | 24 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-12 | ROYAL | W | 2-1 | 56 | 7 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-19 | WACO | W | 3-1 | 56 | 21 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-26 | LA GRANGE | W | 4-1 | 65 | 27 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-10 | NEEDVILLE | W | 5-1 | 42 | 35 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-17 | STAFFORD | L | 5-2 | 38 | 47 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-25 | FORT BEND WILLOWRIDGE | W | 6-2 | 42 | 20 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-31 | BRAZOSPORT | W | 7-2 | 49 | 7 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-08 | ALMETA CRAWFORD | L | 7-3 | 14 | 51 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-13 | NORTH FOREST | W | 8-3 | 56 | 12 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-21 | BRIDGE CITY | L | 8-4 | 27 | 28 | N/A | N/A |
| TOTALS | 12 GMS | 8-4 | 8-4 | 494 | 312 | N/A | 425 (1) |
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
• NAV commits fewer than 2 giveaways (.833)
• NAV averages 8.0+ yards per attempt (.999), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• NAV rushes for 150+ yards (.750), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• NAV averages 7.0+ yards per play (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• NAV's defense has averaged 0.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 1.0 takeaways per game. (-67%)
• NAV's defense has averaged 434.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 269.0 rush yards per game. (+61%)
• NAV wins even while allowing its opponents 137.0+ passing yards (NAV's own median) (.800)
• NAV's defense has averaged 65.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 137.2 pass yards per game. (-53%)
• NAV averages 8.4+ yards per attempt (NAV's own median) (.999)
• NAV's offense has averaged 21.3 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 34-game average is 36.1 points scored per game. (-41%)
• NAV's offense has averaged 1.0 giveaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 11-game average is 1.5 giveaways per game. (-35%)
• NAV's offense has averaged 122.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 13-game average is 183.0 rush yards per game. (-33%)
• NAV's defense has averaged 9.6 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 7.2 YPC. (+33%)
• NAV's defense has averaged 37.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 34-game average is 28.8 points allowed per game. (+30%)
• NAV's defense has averaged 6.9 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 9.5 YPA. (-27%)
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
NAV -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 10 scored; vs 894 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | Rush Yds 150+ | 6-2 | .750 | 46.2 | W2 | 0.810 |
| 2 | DEF | Turnovers < 3 | 5-4 | .556 | 35.0 | L2 | 0.705 |
| 3 | OFF | Turnovers < 3 | 5-3 | .625 | 38.5 | L1 | 0.635 |
| 4 | DEF | Turnovers < 2 | 4-4 | .500 | 36.0 | L2 | 0.607 |
| 5 | OFF | Rush Yds 100+ | 7-5 | .583 | 36.1 | W1 | 0.485 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- NAV ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| NAV rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 3-4 | .429 | 27.1 | W2 |
| NAV averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards | 4-2 | .667 | 46.0 | W2 |
| NAV averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards | 4-1 | .800 | 48.6 | W2 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| NAV | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 3-4 | .429 | 27.1 |
| NAV | YPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 4-2 | .667 | 46.0 |
| NAV | YPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 4-1 | .800 | 48.6 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 4-0 | 1.000 | 46.8 | W4 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-3 | .250 | 32.8 | L1 | 26 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 4-1 | .800 | 48.6 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-5 | .375 | 24.6 | W2 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 7-5 | .583 | 36.1 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | L1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 6-2 | .750 | 46.2 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 1-4 | .200 | 14.0 | W1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 4-2 | .667 | 46.0 | W2 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-1 | .500 | 21.0 | W1 | 26 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 5-1 | .833 | 44.0 | W3 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 27.0 | L2 | 26 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 55.3 | W3 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-3 | .400 | 30.4 | W1 | 26 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 2-5 | .286 | 33.6 | L2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 3-1 | .750 | 36.0 | W1 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 0-5 | .000 | 25.0 | L5 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-3 | .000 | 23.7 | L3 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-3 | .000 | 7.0 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-2 | .000 | 16.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 2-4 | .333 | 21.8 |
| Scores 30-39 | 3-5 | .375 | 33.9 |
| Scores 40+ | 15-0 | 1.000 | 51.6 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 4-0 | 1.000 | 46.8 | W4 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 32.7 | L1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 3-1 | .750 | 46.8 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 2-1 | .667 | 32.7 | W2 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 5-2 | .714 | 40.7 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 4-1 | .800 | 48.6 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 1-1 | .500 | 21.0 | W1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 4-1 | .800 | 48.6 | W2 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-1 | .500 | 21.0 | W1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 5-1 | .833 | 44.0 | W3 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-1 | .000 | 21.0 | L1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 55.3 | W3 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-2 | .500 | 29.8 | W1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 2-3 | .400 | 36.8 | L2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 3-1 | .750 | 36.0 | W1 | |
| Turnovers 2+ | 0-3 | .000 | 24.7 | L3 | |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 19.0 | L2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 |
| Scores 10-19 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 20-29 | 1-1 | .500 | 21.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 0-2 | .000 | 33.5 |
| Scores 40+ | 4-0 | 1.000 | 53.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 3-4 | .429 | 34.7 | L2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 42.0 | L1 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 2-1 | .667 | 32.7 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 2-5 | .286 | 38.7 | L2 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 3-6 | .333 | 40.1 | L3 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 | W1 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 3-6 | .333 | 40.1 | L3 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 | W1 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 3-6 | .333 | 40.1 | L3 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 | W1 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 3-6 | .333 | 40.1 | L3 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 | W1 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 2-5 | .286 | 42.9 | L3 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-1 | .667 | 23.0 | W2 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-3 | .571 | 30.7 | L2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-2 | .333 | 44.7 | L1 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-1 | .500 | 30.5 | W1 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-1 | .000 | 34.0 | L1 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 7.5 |
| Allows 10-19 | 6-0 | 1.000 | 13.8 |
| Allows 20-29 | 7-5 | .583 | 26.1 |
| Allows 30-39 | 1-3 | .250 | 34.0 |
| Allows 40+ | 2-6 | .250 | 52.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 3-3 | .500 | 35.0 | L2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-1 | .500 | 28.0 | L1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 2-1 | .667 | 32.7 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 2-3 | .400 | 33.6 | L2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 3-4 | .429 | 36.9 | L3 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 3-4 | .429 | 36.9 | L3 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 3-4 | .429 | 36.9 | L3 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 3-4 | .429 | 36.9 | L3 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 2-3 | .400 | 39.4 | L3 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-1 | .667 | 23.0 | W2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-3 | .571 | 30.7 | L2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-1 | .500 | 32.0 | L1 | |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-1 | .500 | 30.5 | W1 | |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-1 | .000 | 34.0 | L1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 2-1 | .667 | 27.7 |
| Allows 30-39 | 0-1 | .000 | 34.0 |
| Allows 40+ | 1-2 | .333 | 47.0 |
NAVASOTA
• NAVASOTA has let one player score 3+ TDs in 2 straight games (10/23/26–10/30/26). Earlier games have no box score on file, so the run may be longer. It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• NAVASOTA has committed 2+ turnovers in 2 straight games (10/23/26–10/30/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• NAVASOTA has allowed 400+ total yards in 2 straight games (10/23/26–10/30/26). Earlier games have no box score on file, so the run may be longer. It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• NAVASOTA has allowed a 100-yard rusher in 2 straight games (10/23/26–10/30/26). Earlier games have no box score on file, so the run may be longer. It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| NAV | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 46.8 | W4 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 32.8 | L1 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 48.6 | L1 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 8 | 3-5 | .375 | 24.6 | W2 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 12 | 7-5 | .583 | 36.1 | W1 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | L1 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 8 | 6-2 | .750 | 46.2 | W2 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 14.0 | W1 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 46.0 | W2 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 21.0 | W1 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 44.0 | W3 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 27.0 | L2 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 55.3 | W3 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 30.4 | W1 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 7 | 2-5 | .286 | 33.6 | L2 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 36.0 | W1 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 25.0 | L5 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 23.7 | L3 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 7.0 | L3 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 16.0 | L2 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 21.8 | W1 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 8 | 3-5 | .375 | 33.9 | L3 |
| NAV | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 15 | 15-0 | 1.000 | 51.6 | W15 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 34.7 | L2 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 42.0 | L1 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 32.7 | L1 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 7 | 2-5 | .286 | 38.7 | L2 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 9 | 3-6 | .333 | 40.1 | L3 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 | W1 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 9 | 3-6 | .333 | 40.1 | L3 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 | W1 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 9 | 3-6 | .333 | 40.1 | L3 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 | W1 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 9 | 3-6 | .333 | 40.1 | L3 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 | W1 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 7 | 2-5 | .286 | 42.9 | L3 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 23.0 | W2 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 7 | 4-3 | .571 | 30.7 | L2 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 44.7 | L1 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 30.5 | W1 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 34.0 | L1 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 7.5 | W4 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 6 | 6-0 | 1.000 | 13.8 | W6 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 12 | 7-5 | .583 | 26.1 | L1 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 34.0 | L1 |
| NAV | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 8 | 2-6 | .250 | 52.0 | L2 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
NAV OFFENSE
NAV's offense has averaged 21.3 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 34-game average is 36.1 points scored per game. (-41%)
NAV's offense has averaged 1.0 giveaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 11-game average is 1.5 giveaways per game. (-35%)
NAV's offense has averaged 122.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 13-game average is 183.0 rush yards per game. (-33%)
NAV's offense has averaged 4.5 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 6.1 YPC. (-26%)
NAV's offense has averaged 315.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 13-game average is 418.9 total yards per game. (-25%)
NAV's offense has averaged 7.9 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 10.1 YPA. (-22%)
NAV's offense has averaged 6.1 YPP over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 7.8 YPP. (-21%)
NAV DEFENSE
NAV's defense has averaged 0.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 1.0 takeaways per game. (-67%)
NAV's defense has averaged 434.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 269.0 rush yards per game. (+61%)
NAV's defense has averaged 65.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 137.2 pass yards per game. (-53%)
NAV's defense has averaged 9.6 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 7.2 YPC. (+33%)
NAV's defense has averaged 37.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 34-game average is 28.8 points allowed per game. (+30%)
NAV's defense has averaged 6.9 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 9.5 YPA. (-27%)
NAV's defense has averaged 499.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 406.2 total yards per game. (+23%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| NAV | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 65.0 | 10 | 137.2 | -52.6% | |
| NAV | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 37.3 | 34 | 28.8 | +29.8% | |
| NAV | OFFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 21.3 | 34 | 36.1 | -41.0% | |
| NAV | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 434.0 | 10 | 269.0 | +61.3% | |
| NAV | OFFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 122.0 | 13 | 183.0 | -33.3% | |
| NAV | DEFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 499.0 | 10 | 406.2 | +22.8% | |
| NAV | OFFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 315.0 | 13 | 418.9 | -24.8% | |
| NAV | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 0.3 | 10 | 1.0 | -66.7% | |
| NAV | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 5 | 1.0 | 11 | 1.5 | -35.3% | |
| NAV | DEFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 6.9 | 10 | 9.5 | -26.7% | |
| NAV | OFFENSE | team | YPA | last 5 | 7.9 | 8 | 10.1 | -22.3% | |
| NAV | DEFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 9.6 | 10 | 7.2 | +33.3% | |
| NAV | OFFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 4.5 | 8 | 6.1 | -25.8% | |
| NAV | OFFENSE | team | YPP | last 5 | 6.1 | 8 | 7.8 | -21.5% |
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 11.7 in 2022 to 12.2 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
