In short: Needville Bluejays high school football (Needville, TX), 2026 season: 4-4. Last game: L 7-45 vs Bay City on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Royal, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 4-4 this season |
| LAST GAME | L 7-45 vs BAY CITY |
| NEXT GAME | ROYAL (10/30/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 58.1 · Rush Off 73.8 · Pass Def 45.4 · Rush Def 52.6 |
| ENROLLMENT | 1,120 STUDENTS (2023-24) |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEEDVILLE | 58.1 (+2) | 73.8 (+47) | 45.4 (+2) | 52.6 (-8) |
Next: vs Royal, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Royal at Needville.
The turnover battle could decide Needville's next game, against Royal, and the recent returns favor Needville. Needville forced 0.5 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #956 in section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (1-3), the Bluejays have forced 2.0 takeaways per game, a 300% rise, #181 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Needville's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.5 per game, a #788 offense in section on the season, against 1.0 per game, #358 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.5 per game), Needville forced 35% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Conversely, Royal's ball security has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Falcons have committed 0.8 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (0-4), #311 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in section (1.5 per game on the season, which would rank #464). Against those norms, Royal turned it over 48% less than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #158 in section, a strong slate. Something has to give when Needville's surging defense meets one of section's better units in Royal's.
The number to watch when Needville meets Royal is Needville's scoring defense. Needville allowed 41.0 points per game over its first 3 games (2-1), #1045 in section through those games. In the 5 games since that slow start (2-3), the Bluejays have allowed 26.2 points per game, a 36% drop, #522 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Needville's last 5 opponents have averaged 28.0 points per game, a #685 offense in section on the season, against 33.8 points per game, #439 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (28.0 points per game), Needville held those offenses 6% below what they usually score. Only Bay City broke through in that span, putting up 45 on 10/23. Meanwhile, Royal's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Falcons have averaged 9.4 points per game over their last 5 games (1-4), #1141 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better scoring defenses in section (20.1 points per game on the season, which would rank #263). Against those norms, Royal scored 53% less than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #261 in section, a strong slate. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Needville. Needville is 2-0 this season when it holds opponents under 20, and 2-4 when it doesn't.
The biggest worry in Needville's season has been the direction of its run defense. Needville allowed 5.6 yards per carry (482 yards on 86 rushes) over its first 4 games (3-1), #530 in section within that period. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), the Bluejays have allowed 7.4 yards per carry (741 yards on 100 rushes), a 32% rise, #871 in section across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.7 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.9 yards per carry), Needville allowed 8% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #286 in section. On the season, Needville ranks #776 in section in run defense. Royal's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #340 in section (6.8 yards per carry).
Needville's ground game from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Bluejays averaged 6.4 yards per carry (1,220 yards on 191 rushes) over their first 5 games (3-2), #398 in section during those games. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (1-2), Needville has averaged 4.5 yards per carry (501 yards on 111 rushes), a 29% drop, #684 in section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Needville's last 3 opponents have averaged 5.0 yards per carry, a #311 run defense in section on the season, against 6.0 yards per carry, #613 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.0 yards per carry), Needville ran for 10% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. On the season, the Bluejays rank #562 in section in rushing. Royal's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #784 in section (6.6 yards per carry).
Something changed for Needville's offense after its first 4 games. Needville averaged 33.2 points per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #437 in section during that stretch. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), the Bluejays have averaged 26.0 points per game, a 22% drop, #726 in section over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Needville's last 4 opponents have averaged 23.2 points per game, a #377 scoring defense in section on the season, against 28.7 points per game, #629 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (23.2 points per game), Needville scored 12% more than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #286 in section. Needville was held to 14 points or fewer 2 times in those games, including 7 against Bay City on 10/23. On the season, Needville ranks #610 in section in scoring. Royal's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #537 in section (26.6 points per game). Needville is 4-1 this season when it scores 27 or more, and 0-3 when it doesn't.
Needville's offense has gained fewer yards per snap as the season has worn on. The Bluejays averaged 7.0 yards per play (1,436 yards on 205 snaps) over their first 4 games (3-1), #442 in section over that timeframe. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), Needville has averaged 6.0 yards per play (1,334 yards on 222 snaps), a 14% drop, #645 in section over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Needville's last 4 opponents have averaged 6.2 yards per play, a #393 defense in section on the season, against 6.9 yards per play, #622 for the first 4. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #286 in section. On the season, the Bluejays rank #600 in section in yards per play. Royal's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #820 in section (7.5 yards per play).
• Club Needville has gone 8 straight games rushing for 100+ yards (August 28, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 4-4 over that stretch, a school-record 8 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Needville has gone 4 straight games forcing 1+ turnover (September 25, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 1-3 over that stretch, a school-record 4 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Needville is 16-1 all time when scoring 40+ points. Needville's last loss when scoring 40+ points was November 3, 2023 against Iowa Colony (L, 45-49).
• Player K. Campbell has 7 rushing touchdowns over his last 4 games (1.8 a game, September 4, 2026 through September 25, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• Player R. Ortiz has 5 sacks over his last 4 games (1.2 a game, September 4, 2026 through September 25, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• Player K. Vacek has 32 tackles over his last 4 games (8.0 a game, September 4, 2026 through September 25, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• Player C. Hall has gone 4 straight games running for a touchdown, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player K. Campbell has 390 rushing yards over his last 3 games (130.0 a game, September 11, 2026 through September 25, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch since the 414 he had from November 7, 2025 through September 4, 2026.
Needville has played one of the toughest schedules in the pool so far (#172 of 1236), and what is left is a tougher-than-average slate (#404 of 1145).
From the games on file through Sep 25.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Sep 25 game; last updated Sep 29.
| PASSING | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| CAMERON HALL | 5 | 41/77 | 53.2% | 597 | 7.8 | 6 | 2 | 138.9 | |
| RUSHING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| K. CAMPBELL | 5 | 100 | 731 | 7.3 | 10 | |
| CAMERON HALL | 5 | 57 | 363 | 6.4 | 4 | |
| RALPHIE ORTIZ JR. | 5 | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 0 | |
| OWEN KAMINSKI | 4 | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 | |
| KASE VACEK | 5 | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | |
| JAEDON WILLIAMS | 5 | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 | |
| LINCOLN WYATT | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | |
| EASTON ONDRUCH | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 5 | 191 | 1,220 | 6.4 | 15 | |
| RECEIVING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | REC | YDS | YPR | TD |
| CARTER HEDT | 4 | 9 | 183 | 20.3 | 2 | |
| JAEDON WILLIAMS | 5 | 11 | 117 | 10.6 | 0 | |
| LINCOLN WYATT | 4 | 10 | 93 | 9.3 | 2 | |
| KASE VACEK | 5 | 3 | 87 | 29.0 | 0 | |
| K. CAMPBELL | 5 | 3 | 65 | 21.7 | 0 | |
| JAYSON ARISPE | 2 | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 1 | |
| LEGEND BARNES | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | |
| RALPHIE ORTIZ JR. | 5 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 1 | |
| OWEN KAMINSKI | 4 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 5 | 41 | 601 | 14.7 | 6 | |
| DEFENSE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | TCKL | TFL | SACKS | INT | INT YDS | PD | FF |
| KASE VACEK | 5 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 4 | 0 | |
| LEVI BARANOWSKI | 5 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| KONNOR BITTNER | 5 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| RALPHIE ORTIZ JR. | 5 | 29 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 1 | |
| EASTON ONDRUCH | 5 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| GERONIMO GARZA | 5 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| HUNTER MCCARY | 5 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| DONNIE JABLONSKI | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| JORDAN THOMPSON | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| CADE ELSTER | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| OWEN KAMINSKI | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| CHRISTIAN MORALES | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| BRAYDEN GARRIE | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| KARTER SWEAT | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| CARTER HEDT | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| ETHAN P. BROWN | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| SLAED CONNER | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| JAEDON WILLIAMS | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 5 | 267 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 47 | 13 | 2 | |
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2022 | 4-6 | 212 | 306 | 21.2 |
| 2023 | 10-3 | 555 | 356 | 42.7 |
| 2024 | 7-5 | 373 | 359 | 31.1 |
| 2025 | 5-6 | 285 | 320 | 25.9 |
| 2026 | 4-4 | 237 | 254 | 29.6 |
| 2022-26 | 30-24 | 30.8 |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/28 | MADISONVILLE | vs | W | 36-34 | |
| 09/04 | SANTA FE | at | W | 48-41 | |
| 09/11 | COLUMBUS | vs | L | 21-48 | |
| 09/18 | LAMAR CONSOLIDATED | at | W | 28-19 | |
| 09/25 | SEALY | vs | L | 14-32 | |
| 10/02 | EL CAMPO | at | L | 27-35 | |
| 10/16 | COLUMBIA | vs | W | 56-0 | |
| 10/23 | BAY CITY | at | L | 7-45 | |
| 10/30 | ROYAL | vs | PROJ | 31-24 | 62.9% |
| 11/06 | NAVASOTA | at | PROJ | 27-35 | 34.0% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 4-4 | 2 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 4-4 so far | 5-5 (54%) | 5.0-5.0 |
| League | 1-3 so far | 1-3 (100%) | 1.0-3.0 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 8 | 29.6 | 31.8 | 346.2 | 342.5 | 53.4 | 46.0 |
| HOME | 4 | 31.8 | 28.5 | 375.5 | 326.7 | 57.8 | 50.0 |
| ROAD | 4 | 27.5 | 35.0 | 317.0 | 358.3 | 49.0 | 42.0 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 8/28 | vs. Madisonville | W 36-34 | 126 | 293 | 419 | 186 | 119 | 305 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
| 9/4 | @ Santa Fe | W 48-41 | 121 | 258 | 379 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 |
| 9/11 | vs. Columbus | L 21-48 | 95 | 218 | 313 | 178 | 259 | 437 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| 9/18 | @ Lamar Consolidated | W 28-19 | 144 | 181 | 325 | 116 | 104 | 220 | -- | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 9/25 | vs. Sealy | L 14-32 | 111 | 270 | 381 | 37 | 201 | 238 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 |
| 10/2 | @ El Campo | L 27-35 | 255 | 101 | 356 | 81 | 330 | 411 | -- | -- | -- | 2 | +2 |
| 10/16 | vs. Columbia | W 56-0 | 117 | 272 | 389 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 3 | +3 |
| 10/23 | @ Bay City | L 7-45 | 80 | 128 | 208 | 234 | 210 | 444 | -- | -- | -- | 2 | +1 |
| AVERAGES | 131.1 | 215.1 | 346.2 | 138.7 | 203.8 | 342.5 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.2 | +3 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 6/8, sacks/INT 5/8, sacks allowed 3/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 58.1/100 (+2 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 73.8/100 (+47 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 45.4/100 (+2 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 52.6/100 (-8 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-10-30 | vs | ROYAL | 3-5 | 19.8 |
| 2026-11-06 | at | NAVASOTA | 5-3 | 36.5 |
LAST YEAR
NEE finished 2025 at 5-6. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 17-13 over COLUMBUS (COLUMBUS finished 79% that season). Toughest loss: 38-44 to LIVINGSTON (6-point margin).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | RECORD | PF | PA | TOT YDS | YDS ALLOWED |
| 2025-08-29 | COLUMBIA | W | 1-0 | 26 | 15 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-05 | LIVINGSTON | L | 1-1 | 38 | 44 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-12 | COLUMBUS | W | 2-1 | 17 | 13 | 166 | N/A |
| 2025-09-19 | EL CAMPO | W | 3-1 | 36 | 35 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-26 | SEALY | L | 3-2 | 21 | 42 | 369 | 149 |
| 2025-10-10 | NAVASOTA | L | 3-3 | 35 | 42 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-17 | BRAZOSPORT | W | 4-3 | 30 | 9 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-24 | ALMETA CRAWFORD | L | 4-4 | 7 | 39 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-31 | FORT BEND WILLOWRIDGE | W | 5-4 | 34 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-07 | STAFFORD | L | 5-5 | 17 | 31 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-14 | YATES | L | 5-6 | 24 | 50 | N/A | N/A |
| TOTALS | 11 GMS | 5-6 | 5-6 | 285 | 320 | 535 (2) | 149 (1) |
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
• NEE holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards (.667), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• NEE holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry (.667), but most recently lost to Sealy when doing so
• NEE commits zero giveaways (.750)
• NEE averages 6.0+ yards per play (.667)
• NEE's defense has averaged 2.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.2 takeaways per game. (+87%)
• NEE's offense has exceeded 100 rush yds in 8 straight games (08/28/2026-10/23/2026), going 4-4 over that stretch.
• NEE's offense has averaged 0.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 0.9 giveaways per game. (-63%)
• NEE's defense has averaged 9.9 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 7.1 YPP. (+40%)
• NEE's defense has forced 1+ turnover in 4 straight games (09/25/2026-10/23/2026), going 1-3 over that stretch.
• NEE's defense has averaged 9.2 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 6.5 YPC. (+40%)
• NEE's defense has averaged 270.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 200.8 rush yards per game. (+34%)
• NEE's offense has averaged 150.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 17-game average is 112.6 pass yards per game. (+34%)
• NEE's defense has forced 2+ turnovers in 3 straight games (10/02/2026-10/23/2026), going 1-2 over that stretch.
• NEE averages 6.0+ yards per play (NEE's own median) (.667)
• NEE holds its opponents under 205.5 rushing yards (NEE's own median) (.500)
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
NEE -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 8 scored; vs 1017 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | Rush Yds 150+ | 5-4 | .556 | 33.3 | W1 | 0.780 |
| 2 | OFF | Turnovers < 3 | 4-5 | .444 | 29.0 | L1 | 0.649 |
| 3 | OFF | Pass Yds < 200 | 6-9 | .400 | 24.8 | L1 | 0.572 |
| 4 | OFF | Turnovers < 2 | 3-5 | .375 | 28.1 | L1 | 0.526 |
| 5 | OFF | Rush Yds 100+ | 6-9 | .400 | 26.4 | L1 | 0.524 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- NEE ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| NEE rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 6-7 | .462 | 26.8 | L1 |
| NEE averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards | 4-3 | .571 | 32.0 | W1 |
| NEE averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards | 4-1 | .800 | 36.4 | W1 |
| NEE averages 6.0+ yards per play while committing zero giveaways | 3-1 | .750 | 39.8 | W1 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| NEE | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 6-7 | .462 | 26.8 |
| NEE | YPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 4-3 | .571 | 32.0 |
| NEE | YPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 4-1 | .800 | 36.4 |
| NEE | YPP 6.0+ & Turnovers < 1 | 3-1 | .750 | 39.8 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 4-3 | .571 | 33.3 | W1 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-4 | .200 | 16.0 | L3 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-2 | .000 | 24.0 | L2 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 6-9 | .400 | 24.8 | L1 | 14 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 6-9 | .400 | 26.4 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 0-2 | .000 | 12.0 | L2 | 14 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 5-4 | .556 | 33.3 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 1-7 | .125 | 15.0 | L4 | 14 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 4-3 | .571 | 32.0 | W1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-4 | .200 | 17.8 | L3 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 4-2 | .667 | 34.8 | W1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-5 | .167 | 17.3 | L3 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 43.7 | W1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-6 | .333 | 20.2 | L2 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 1-5 | .167 | 19.3 | L3 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 3-1 | .750 | 39.8 | W1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-1 | .500 | 25.0 | L1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-1 | .000 | 14.0 | L1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-2 | .000 | 7.0 |
| Scores 10-19 | 1-5 | .167 | 15.5 |
| Scores 20-29 | 5-6 | .455 | 24.8 |
| Scores 30-39 | 4-2 | .667 | 34.8 |
| Scores 40+ | 6-0 | 1.000 | 51.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 4-1 | .800 | 39.0 | W1 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 0-3 | .000 | 14.0 | L3 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-1 | .000 | 27.0 | L1 |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 4-3 | .571 | 30.0 | L1 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 4-4 | .500 | 29.6 | L1 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 4-2 | .667 | 33.8 | W1 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 0-2 | .000 | 17.0 | L2 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 4-2 | .667 | 33.8 | W1 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 17.0 | L2 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 4-2 | .667 | 34.8 | W1 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 14.0 | L2 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 43.7 | W1 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-3 | .400 | 21.2 | L2 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 1-3 | .250 | 19.5 | L3 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 3-1 | .750 | 39.8 | W1 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-1 | .500 | 25.0 | L1 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-1 | .000 | 14.0 | L1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-1 | .000 | 14.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 1-2 | .333 | 25.3 |
| Scores 30-39 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 36.0 |
| Scores 40+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 52.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-4 | .200 | 40.4 | L2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 36.0 | L1 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-2 | .000 | 50.0 | L2 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 2-4 | .333 | 35.0 | L2 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 2-6 | .250 | 38.8 | L3 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-5 | .000 | 43.0 | L5 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 2-1 | .667 | 31.7 | W2 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 0-5 | .000 | 45.0 | L5 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 2-1 | .667 | 28.3 | L1 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 0-4 | .000 | 45.8 | L4 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 2-2 | .500 | 31.8 | L1 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-4 | .000 | 45.8 | L4 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-2 | .500 | 31.8 | L1 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-3 | .500 | 31.2 | L1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-1 | .500 | 33.5 | W1 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-2 | .333 | 26.7 | L1 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 0.0 | W1 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 6-0 | 1.000 | 5.2 |
| Allows 10-19 | 3-1 | .750 | 16.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 24.0 |
| Allows 30-39 | 2-5 | .286 | 33.9 |
| Allows 40+ | 2-9 | .182 | 48.1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-3 | .250 | 36.8 | L2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-1 | .500 | 33.0 | L1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-1 | .000 | 45.0 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 2-3 | .400 | 33.6 | L2 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 2-4 | .333 | 35.5 | L3 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-4 | .000 | 40.0 | L4 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 26.5 | W2 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 0-3 | .000 | 42.7 | L3 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 2-1 | .667 | 28.3 | L1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 0-3 | .000 | 42.7 | L3 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 2-1 | .667 | 28.3 | L1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-3 | .000 | 42.7 | L3 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-1 | .667 | 28.3 | L1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-3 | .500 | 31.2 | L1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-1 | .500 | 33.5 | W1 | |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-2 | .333 | 26.7 | L1 | |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 0.0 | W1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 0.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 19.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 30-39 | 1-2 | .333 | 33.7 |
| Allows 40+ | 1-2 | .333 | 44.7 |
NEEDVILLE
• NEEDVILLE has forced 2+ turnovers in 3 straight games (10/2/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| NEE | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 7 | 4-3 | .571 | 33.3 | W1 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 16.0 | L3 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 24.0 | L2 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 15 | 6-9 | .400 | 24.8 | L1 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 15 | 6-9 | .400 | 26.4 | L1 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 12.0 | L2 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 9 | 5-4 | .556 | 33.3 | W1 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 15.0 | L4 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 7 | 4-3 | .571 | 32.0 | W1 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 17.8 | L3 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 34.8 | W1 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 17.3 | L3 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 43.7 | W1 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 9 | 3-6 | .333 | 20.2 | L2 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 19.3 | L3 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 39.8 | W1 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 25.0 | L1 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 14.0 | L1 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 7.0 | L2 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 15.5 | L2 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 11 | 5-6 | .455 | 24.8 | L1 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 34.8 | W3 |
| NEE | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 6 | 6-0 | 1.000 | 51.0 | W6 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 40.4 | L2 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 36.0 | L1 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 50.0 | L2 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 35.0 | L2 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 8 | 2-6 | .250 | 38.8 | L3 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 43.0 | L5 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 31.7 | W2 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 45.0 | L5 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 28.3 | L1 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 45.8 | L4 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 31.8 | L1 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 45.8 | L4 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 31.8 | L1 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 31.2 | L1 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 33.5 | W1 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 26.7 | L1 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 0.0 | W1 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 6 | 6-0 | 1.000 | 5.2 | W6 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 16.0 | W3 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 24.0 | W3 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 7 | 2-5 | .286 | 33.9 | L2 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 11 | 2-9 | .182 | 48.1 | L2 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 8 games | 08/28/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 4-4 |
| DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 4 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-3 |
| DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 3 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-2 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
| NEE | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 8 games | 08/28/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 4-4 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 4 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-3 |
| NEE | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 3 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-2 |
NEE OFFENSE
NEE's offense has averaged 0.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 0.9 giveaways per game. (-63%)
NEE's offense has averaged 150.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 17-game average is 112.6 pass yards per game. (+34%)
NEE DEFENSE
NEE's defense has averaged 2.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.2 takeaways per game. (+87%)
NEE's defense has averaged 9.9 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 7.1 YPP. (+40%)
NEE's defense has averaged 9.2 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 6.5 YPC. (+40%)
NEE's defense has averaged 270.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 200.8 rush yards per game. (+34%)
NEE's defense has averaged 10.6 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 8.3 YPA. (+28%)
NEE's defense has averaged 427.5 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 340.9 total yards per game. (+25%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| NEE | OFFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 150.7 | 17 | 112.6 | +33.8% | |
| NEE | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 270.0 | 8 | 200.8 | +34.5% | |
| NEE | DEFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 427.5 | 8 | 340.9 | +25.4% | |
| NEE | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 2.3 | 8 | 1.2 | +86.7% | |
| NEE | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 0.3 | 10 | 0.9 | -63.0% | |
| NEE | DEFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 10.6 | 8 | 8.3 | +27.6% | |
| NEE | DEFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 9.2 | 8 | 6.5 | +39.8% | |
| NEE | DEFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 9.9 | 8 | 7.1 | +40.0% |
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -4.8 in 2022 to 5.8 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
