In short: Armijo Royals high school football (Fairfield, CA), 2026 season: 1-7. Last game: L 0-43 vs Foothill on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Davis SR., October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The number to watch when Armijo meets Davis SR. is Armijo's scoring defense. Armijo allowed 38.0 points per game over its first 5 games (1-4), #132 in Section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), the Royals have allowed 46.3 points per game, a 22% rise, #140 in Section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Armijo's last 3 opponents have averaged 34.2 points per game, a #37 offense in Section on the season, against 25.1 points per game, #81 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (34.2 points per game), Armijo allowed 35% more than those offenses usually score. Meanwhile, Davis SR.'s offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Blue Devils have averaged 18.7 points per game over their last 3 games (0-3), #110 in Section during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker scoring defenses in Section (30.2 points per game on the season, which would rank #105). Against those norms, Davis SR. scored 38% less than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #127 in Section, a lower level of competition. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Armijo's season has been the direction of its ground game. Armijo averaged 6.7 yards per carry (695 yards on 103 rushes) over its first 4 games (0-4), #48 in Section through those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), the Royals have averaged 4.7 yards per carry (476 yards on 102 rushes), a 31% drop, #104 in Section through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.8 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.6 yards per carry), Armijo ran for 16% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #109 in Section, well below the first 4 (#70), which makes the dip harder to excuse. On the season, Armijo ranks #85 in Section in rushing. Davis SR.'s run defense, #138 of 152 (8.8 yards per carry), could be the get-right matchup Armijo needs.
TIDBITS (8 found)
• Club Armijo has lost 3 straight, and a loss would make it 4 in a row. The last time they lost 4 or more in a row was 2025, a run of 5.
• Club Armijo has gone 5 straight games allowing 6.0+ yards per play (September 25, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 1-4 over that stretch, matching the program record of 5 straight on record.
• Club Armijo has allowed 139 points over its last 3 games (46.3 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- its most in a 3-game stretch since the 140 from November 8, 2024 through August 29, 2025.
• Player Elijah Powell has gone 2 straight games rushing for 100+ yards, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Elijah Powell has gone 2 straight games running for a touchdown, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Jariah Johnson has never had a game recording 100+ receiving yards for Armijo, over a 34-game career on record. His career high is 72, set October 17, 2025 against Burbank (W, 48-20).
• Player Jariah Johnson has gone 22 straight games without recording two or more tackles for loss. The last time he had two tackles for loss was September 14, 2023 against Natomas (W, 24-7) — 2 tackles for loss.
• Player Korey Choyce has gone 5 straight games without throwing for 200+ yards. The last time he threw for 200+ yards was October 24, 2025 against Johnson (W, 62-11) — 219 passing yards.
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 2 game; last updated Oct 23; roster and numbers checked Sep 10.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 7/8, defense 7/8, sacks/INT 5/8, sacks allowed 6/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 5.9/100 (-119 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 38.7/100 (-34 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 19.5/100 (+44 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 9.6/100 (+106 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
ARM finished 2025 at 4-6. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 48-20 over BURBANK (BURBANK finished 36% that season). Toughest loss: 19-37 to BISHOP O'DOWD (18-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
ARM HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• ARM holds its opponents under 100 rushing yards (.600), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• ARM throws for 200+ yards (.615), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• ARM rushes for 100+ yards (.522), but most recently lost to Kennedy when doing so
• ARM holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.400), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• ARM's offense has averaged 52.2 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 42-game average is 154.5 pass yards per game. (-66%)
• ARM's offense has averaged 8.0 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 47-game average is 22.5 points scored per game. (-64%)
• ARM's defense has averaged 1.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 0.9 takeaways per game. (+55%)
• ARM's offense has averaged 205.5 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 42-game average is 139.3 rush yards per game. (+48%)
• ARM's offense has averaged 157.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 42-game average is 293.8 total yards per game. (-47%)
• ARM's defense has averaged 46.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 47-game average is 33.0 points allowed per game. (+41%)
• ARM rushes for 118.0+ yards (ARM's own median) (.571)
• ARM's offense has averaged 5.6 YPC over their last 7 games. Their 28-game average is 4.2 YPC. (+35%)
• ARM's offense has averaged 4.6 YPA over their last 10 games. Their 28-game average is 7.1 YPA. (-35%)
• ARM's offense has averaged 2.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 1.5 giveaways per game. (+35%)
• ARM's defense has averaged 10.7 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 8.1 YPC. (+32%)
ARM — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2022-26 (47 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-13
.000
2.8
Scores 10-19
1-11
.083
14.8
Scores 20-29
3-5
.375
23.9
Scores 30-39
3-2
.600
33.6
Scores 40+
9-0
1.000
53.8
ARM — OFFENSE — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
0-1
.000
0.0
L1
YPA < 8.0
1-5
.167
13.7
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
--
--
--
--
Pass Yds < 200
1-6
.143
11.7
L2
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
1-4
.200
16.4
L1
Rush Yds < 100
0-2
.000
0.0
L2
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
1-2
.333
15.3
W1
Rush Yds < 150
0-4
.000
9.0
L4
1 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
1-3
.250
14.5
W1
YPC < 5.0
0-3
.000
8.0
L3
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
0-1
.000
12.0
L1
YPP < 6.0
1-5
.167
11.7
L2
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
0-1
.000
12.0
L1
YPP < 7.0
1-5
.167
11.7
L2
1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
1-5
.167
7.7
L2
Turnovers < 1
0-2
.000
18.0
L2
Turnovers 2+
1-4
.200
6.8
L2
Turnovers > 2
0-2
.000
0.0
L2
ARM — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-3
.000
0.0
Scores 10-19
0-3
.000
12.0
Scores 20-29
1-1
.500
23.0
Scores 30-39
--
--
--
Scores 40+
--
--
--
ARM — DEFENSE — 2022-26 (47 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
3-17
.150
41.0
L6
YPA < 8.0
2-4
.333
26.7
W1
21 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
3-6
.333
34.9
L1
Pass Yds < 200
2-15
.118
39.1
L5
21 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
2-21
.087
40.8
L6
Rush Yds < 100
3-2
.600
24.6
W3
19 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
1-15
.062
43.9
L11
Rush Yds < 150
4-8
.333
30.0
W2
19 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
1-17
.056
45.1
L12
YPC < 5.0
4-6
.400
25.1
W2
19 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
3-19
.136
41.8
L3
YPP < 6.0
2-4
.333
23.8
W1
19 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
1-17
.056
44.8
L12
YPP < 7.0
4-6
.400
25.5
W2
19 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
3-11
.214
33.9
L2
Turnovers < 1
2-13
.133
41.4
L8
18 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 2+
1-8
.111
33.2
L3
18 games without this stat on file
Turnovers > 2
1-1
.500
30.0
L1
18 games without this stat on file
ARM — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2022-26 (47 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
3-0
1.000
4.7
Allows 10-19
5-1
.833
13.5
Allows 20-29
7-3
.700
23.5
Allows 30-39
1-9
.100
33.8
Allows 40+
0-18
.000
48.9
ARM — DEFENSE — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
0-6
.000
46.8
L6
YPA < 8.0
1-0
1.000
14.0
W1
1 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
1-1
.500
28.5
L1
Pass Yds < 200
0-5
.000
47.6
L5
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
0-6
.000
46.8
L6
Rush Yds < 100
1-0
1.000
14.0
W1
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
0-6
.000
46.8
L6
Rush Yds < 150
1-0
1.000
14.0
W1
1 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
0-6
.000
46.8
L6
YPC < 5.0
1-0
1.000
14.0
W1
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
1-6
.143
42.1
L3
YPP < 6.0
--
--
--
--
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
0-6
.000
46.8
L6
YPP < 7.0
1-0
1.000
14.0
W1
1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
1-4
.200
34.2
L2
Turnovers < 1
0-3
.000
52.7
L3
Turnovers 2+
0-3
.000
38.0
L3
Turnovers > 2
0-1
.000
48.0
L1
ARM — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
--
--
--
Allows 10-19
1-0
1.000
14.0
Allows 20-29
--
--
--
Allows 30-39
0-2
.000
33.0
Allows 40+
0-5
.000
49.8
ON THE BRINK
ARMIJO
• ARMIJO has committed 2+ turnovers in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• ARMIJO has lost by 20+ in 3 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not lost by 20+ in 4 straight since 10/31/25–9/25/26 (2026).
• ARMIJO has been held under 14 in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not been held under 14 in 3 straight since 10/31/25–9/25/26 (2026).
• ARMIJO has allowed 30+ in 3 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not allowed 30+ in 4 straight since 10/31/25–9/25/26 (2026). It has reached 4 straight 2 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 5 straight (2025) in that span.
ARM's defense has averaged 1.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 0.9 takeaways per game. (+55%)
ARM's defense has averaged 46.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 47-game average is 33.0 points allowed per game. (+41%)
ARM's defense has averaged 10.7 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 8.1 YPC. (+32%)
ARM's defense has averaged 12.1 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 9.4 YPP. (+29%)
ARM's defense has averaged 14.9 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 26-game average is 11.6 YPA. (+28%)
ARM's defense has averaged 245.1 rush yards per game over their last 20 games. Their 28-game average is 198.0 rush yards per game. (+24%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where ARMIJO sits among 148 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 25.4, Defense Grade 26.6.
YARDS / PLAY ALLOWED: ARMIJO VS THE SECTION
ARMIJO ranks #118 of 121 section teams in yards per play allowed (12.11) -- a weakness worth a look.
ARMIJO: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -17.9 in 2022 to -15.6 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
