In short: Natomas Nighthawks high school football (Sacramento, CA), 2026 season: 1-7. Last game: L 0-42 vs Casa Roble on October 23, 2026. Next: at Sutter, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The turnover battle could decide Natomas' next game, against Sutter, and the recent returns favor Natomas. Natomas forced 0.8 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #112 in Section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (0-4), the Nighthawks have forced 1.8 takeaways per game, a 133% rise, #33 in Section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Natomas' last 4 opponents have averaged 1.6 per game, a #104 offense in Section on the season, against 1.9 per game, #125 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.6 per game), Natomas forced 8% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #103 in Section. Conversely, Sutter's ball security has been one of Section's better units in recent weeks. The Huskies have committed 0.5 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (4-0), #16 in Section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in Section (1.1 per game on the season, which would rank #99). Against those norms, Sutter turned it over 54% less than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #106 in Section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Natomas' surging defense meets one of Section's better units in Sutter's.
The number to watch when Natomas meets Sutter is Natomas' scoring. Natomas averaged 23.5 points per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #85 in Section through those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (0-4), the Nighthawks have averaged 13.8 points per game, a 41% drop, #120 in Section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Natomas' last 4 opponents have averaged 28.2 points per game, a #90 scoring defense in Section on the season, against 34.5 points per game, #124 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (28.2 points per game), Natomas scored 51% less than those defenses usually allow. Conversely, Sutter's defense has been one of Section's better units in recent weeks. The Huskies have allowed 8.8 points per game over their last 4 games (4-0), #14 in Section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in Section (21.6 points per game on the season, which would rank #100). Against those norms, Sutter held those offenses 60% below what they usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #106 in Section, a lower level of competition. Unless Natomas' offense rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Sutter.
NOTES
The biggest shift in Natomas' season has come in its ball security. Natomas committed 2.0 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #111 in Section within that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (0-4), the Nighthawks have committed 0.8 giveaways per game, a 62% drop, #29 in Section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Natomas' last 4 opponents have averaged 1.1 per game, a #86 defense in Section on the season, against 1.3 per game, #73 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.1 per game), Natomas turned it over 34% less than those defenses usually force. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #103 in Section. On the season, Natomas ranks #84 in Section in giveaways. That form gets a real test against Sutter, whose defense ranks #31 in Section (1.9 per game).
Natomas' passing game from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Nighthawks averaged 10.6 yards per pass attempt (753 yards on 71 attempts) over their first 3 games (0-3), #26 in Section during those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), Natomas has averaged 7.0 yards per pass attempt (796 yards on 114 attempts), a 34% drop, #95 in Section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Natomas' last 5 opponents have averaged 9.0 yards per attempt, a #95 pass defense in Section on the season, against 10.0 yards per attempt, #122 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (9.0 yards per attempt), Natomas threw for 22% less per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. On the season, the Nighthawks rank #68 in Section in passing. It won't get any easier against Sutter, whose pass defense ranks #16 in Section (6.2 yards per attempt).
Something changed for Natomas' defense after its first 4 games. Natomas allowed 34.8 points per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #121 in Section during that stretch. In the 4 games since that hot start (0-4), the Nighthawks have allowed 40.8 points per game, a 17% rise, #129 in Section over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 21.9 points per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (22.6 points per game), Natomas allowed 80% more than those offenses usually score. On the season, Natomas ranks #133 in Section in scoring defense. It won't get any easier against Sutter, whose offense ranks #6 in Section (43.1 points per game).
One of Natomas' shakiest areas lately has been its defense. The Nighthawks allowed 7.9 yards per play (1,416 yards on 180 snaps) over their first 4 games (1-3), #112 in Section over that timeframe. In the 4 games since that hot start (0-4), Natomas has allowed 9.1 yards per play (1,399 yards on 153 snaps), a 16% rise, #121 in Section over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.5 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.7 yards per play), Natomas allowed 37% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. On the season, the Nighthawks rank #127 in Section in yards per play allowed. It won't get any easier against Sutter, whose offense ranks #4 in Section (11.3 yards per play).
TIDBITS (11 found)
• Club Natomas has lost 4 straight, and a loss would make it 5 in a row. The last time they lost 5 or more in a row was 2024, a run of 16.
• Club The last time Natomas went a game forcing 3+ turnovers was October 4, 2024 against Woodland (W, 56-41). Since then Natomas has gone 21 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers, a school-record 21 straight in the 9 seasons on record.
• Club Natomas has gone 4 straight games allowing 5.0+ yards per carry (October 2, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 0-4 over that stretch, a school-record 4 straight in the 9 seasons on record.
• Club Natomas has gone 4 straight games allowing 6.0+ yards per play (October 2, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 0-4 over that stretch, a school-record 4 straight in the 9 seasons on record.
• Club Natomas is 12-0 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points in the games on file (12 such games).
• Club Natomas is 13-2 all time when rushing for 150+ yards. Natomas's last loss when rushing for 150+ yards was November 4, 2022 against Lincoln (L, 26-52).
• Player Jayceon Hill has gone 7 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Jayceon Hill has 1151 passing yards over his last 5 games (230.2 a game, September 11, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 5-game stretch on record.
• Player Kierre Webster has 486 receiving yards over his last 5 games (97.2 a game, September 11, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 5-game stretch on record.
• Player Isaiah Stanley has 30 tackles over his last 3 games (10.0 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Kierre Webster has gone 2 straight games catching a touchdown pass, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 3 straight games catching a touchdown pass, during the 2026 season.
MILESTONE WATCH
Natomas
Josiah Hill needs 2 touchdown passes for 20 (averaging 2.6 a game)
Kierre Webster needs 1 receiving touchdown for 10 (averaging 1.3 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 16 game; last updated Oct 23; roster and numbers checked Sep 7.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 7/8, sacks/INT 7/8, sacks allowed 7/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 55.4/100 (-3 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 3.5/100 (-156 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 36.7/100 (+14 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 9.0/100 (+110 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
NAT HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• NAT rushes for 150+ yards (.999), and has won 5 straight when doing so
• NAT holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.500), but most recently lost to El Camino when doing so
• NAT holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.400), but most recently lost to Woodland when doing so
• NAT holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards (.333), but most recently lost to El Camino when doing so
• NAT's offense has averaged 266.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 122.4 pass yards per game. (+117%)
• NAT's defense has averaged 1.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 18-game average is 1.0 takeaways per game. (+67%)
• NAT's offense has averaged 0.7 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 18-game average is 1.9 giveaways per game. (-66%)
• NAT's offense has averaged 323.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 220.6 total yards per game. (+46%)
• NAT's offense has averaged 57.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 98.2 rush yards per game. (-42%)
• NAT's defense has conceded 5.0+ YPC in 4 straight games (10/02/2026-10/23/2026), going 0-4 over that stretch.
• NAT's defense has forced 1+ turnover in 4 straight games (10/02/2026-10/23/2026), going 0-4 over that stretch.
• NAT's offense has averaged 8.7 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 17-game average is 6.2 YPA. (+40%)
• NAT's offense has averaged 7.1 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 17-game average is 5.4 YPP. (+31%)
• NAT rushes for 86.0+ yards (NAT's own median) (.385)
• NAT averages 8.0+ yards per attempt while throwing for 200+ yards
• NATOMAS has forced 2+ turnovers in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• NATOMAS has allowed 200+ rushing in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• NATOMAS has allowed 30+ in 4 straight games (10/2/26–10/23/26). It has not allowed 30+ in 5 straight since 10/4/24–8/29/25 (2025).
• NATOMAS has lost 4 straight (10/2/26–10/23/26). It has not lost 5 straight since 10/11/24–9/11/26 (2026).
NAT's defense has averaged 1.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 18-game average is 1.0 takeaways per game. (+67%)
NAT's defense has averaged 9.5 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 17-game average is 12.5 YPA. (-24%)
NAT's defense has averaged 118.1 pass yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 17-game average is 151.3 pass yards per game. (-22%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where NATOMAS sits among 148 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 19.9, Defense Grade 24.3.
YARDS / CARRY: NATOMAS VS THE SECTION
NATOMAS ranks #117 of 130 section teams in yards per carry (3.10) -- a weakness worth a look.
NATOMAS: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 2.1 in 2022 to -27.3 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
