In short: Arroyo Dons high school football (San Lorenzo, CA), 2026 season: 2-7. Last game: L 30-45 vs Tennyson on October 30, 2026. Next: vs Castro Valley, November 7, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The battle on the ground could decide Arroyo's next game, against Castro Valley, and the recent returns favor Arroyo. Arroyo averaged 3.7 yards per carry (506 yards on 138 rushes) over its first 5 games (1-4), #87 in Section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Dons have averaged 6.6 yards per carry (630 yards on 96 rushes), a 79% rise, #37 in Section in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.4 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.4 yards per carry), Arroyo ran for 22% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. Meanwhile, Castro Valley's run defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Trojans have allowed 6.9 yards per carry (685 yards on 99 rushes) over their last 4 games (1-3), #70 in Section during that time. Those games came against some of the better rushing attacks in Section (7.8 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #15). Against those norms, Castro Valley held those rushing attacks 11% below their usual yards per carry. Castro Valley offers Arroyo a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
The number to watch when Arroyo meets Castro Valley is Arroyo's giveaways. Arroyo committed 1.6 giveaways per game over its first 5 games (1-4), #73 in Section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Dons have committed 0.5 giveaways per game, a 69% drop, #19 in Section through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.2 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.2 per game), Arroyo turned it over 58% less than those defenses usually force. Meanwhile, Castro Valley's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Trojans have forced 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 4 games (1-3), #52 in Section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better offenses in Section (1.0 per game on the season, which would rank #33). Castro Valley offers Arroyo a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Arroyo's season has been the direction of its defense. Arroyo forced 1.4 takeaways per game over its first 5 games (1-4), #46 in Section within that period. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Dons have forced 0.5 takeaways per game, a 64% drop, #79 in Section across those games. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 4 opponents have been softer, averaging 1.2 per game, a #54 offense in Section on the season, against 1.1 per game, #45 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.2 per game), Arroyo forced 58% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. On the season, Arroyo ranks #69 in Section in takeaways. Castro Valley's ball security sits in the middle of the pack, #60 in Section (1.2 per game).
The Dons averaged 17.0 points per game over their first 5 games (1-4), #81 in Section during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), Arroyo has averaged 24.5 points per game, a 44% rise, #54 in Section during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 23.7 points per game on the season. On the season, the Dons rank #72 in Section in scoring. The trend lines up well against Castro Valley, whose defense ranks just #94 of 110 (33.5 points per game).
Arroyo's offense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. Arroyo averaged 4.5 yards per play (942 yards on 208 snaps) over its first 5 games (1-4), #92 in Section during that stretch. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Dons have averaged 6.3 yards per play (993 yards on 158 snaps), a 39% rise, #61 in Section over that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Arroyo's last 4 opponents have averaged 6.7 yards per play, a #50 defense in Section on the season, against 5.8 yards per play, #23 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.7 yards per play), Arroyo gained 6% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. On the season, Arroyo ranks #85 in Section in yards per play. Castro Valley's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #78 in Section (7.5 yards per play).
TIDBITS (2 found)
• Club Arroyo is 14-0 all time when scoring 40+ points in the games on file (14 such games).
• Player Marcell Usher has 8 sacks over his last 6 games (1.2 a game, September 5, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 6-game stretch on record.
MILESTONE WATCH
Arroyo
J. Dickerson needs 1 tackle for 50 (averaging 7.0 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 16 game; last updated Oct 22; roster and numbers checked Sep 7.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 8/9, defense 7/9, sacks/INT 7/9, sacks allowed 6/9, turnovers 8/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 41.3/100 (-32 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 31.5/100 (-51 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 32.1/100 (+21 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 56.0/100 (-15 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
ARR finished 2025 at 8-3. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 13-8 over ALAMEDA (ALAMEDA finished 82% that season). Toughest loss: 13-40 to LIVERMORE (27-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
ARR HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• ARR averages 7.0+ yards per play (.999), and has won 5 straight when doing so
• ARROYO has scored 30+ in 2 straight games (10/23/26–10/30/26). It has not scored 30+ in 3 straight since 9/26/25–10/17/25 (2025). It has reached 3 straight 3 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 4 straight (2024) in that span.
ARR's defense has averaged 36.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 51-game average is 22.3 points allowed per game. (+64%)
ARR's defense has averaged 0.5 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 21-game average is 1.0 takeaways per game. (-50%)
ARR's defense has averaged 3.9 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 19-game average is 7.2 YPC. (-46%)
ARR's defense has averaged 102.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 19-game average is 159.4 rush yards per game. (-36%)
ARR's defense has averaged 7.3 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 19-game average is 10.5 YPA. (-30%)
ARR's defense has averaged 5.9 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 19-game average is 8.4 YPP. (-29%)
ARR's defense has averaged 183.0 pass yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 19-game average is 146.3 pass yards per game. (+25%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where ARROYO (SAN LORENZO) sits among 109 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 65.2, Defense Grade 42.1.
YARDS / PLAY ALLOWED: ARROYO (SAN LORENZO) VS THE SECTION
ARROYO (SAN LORENZO) ranks #67 of 68 section teams in yards per play allowed (11.33) -- a weakness worth a look.
ARROYO (SAN LORENZO): SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -16.3 in 2022 to -8.8 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
