D3 Playoff Picture (Real NPI)

If the season ended today. Full 40-team field, seeded 1-40 by real NCAA Power Index (NPI) -- not this site's own internal rating. Automatic bids to the champion of each of 27 eligible conferences (NESCAC does not participate); the remaining 13 at-large by NPI. Only seeds 1-8 are "protected" by strict NPI rank -- seeds 9-40 can move in the real committee's bracket logistics, which this build does not model (same gap as the FCS page's own round-1 seeding note). Every round below is simulated forward with this site's own matchup projection, all the way to a projected Stagg Bowl champion.

• American Rivers champion: Wartburg
• American Southwest champion: Hardin-Simmons
• Centennial champion: Carnegie Mellon
• CCIW champion: Wheaton (IL)
• Commonwealth Coast champion: Endicott
• Empire 8 champion: Cortland
• Heartland (HCAC) champion: Hanover
• Landmark champion: Susquehanna
• Liberty League champion: Ithaca
• MASCAC champion: Bridgewater St.
• MIAA (Michigan) champion: Hope
• Middle Atlantic (MAC) champion: Eastern
• Midwest (MWC) champion: Monmouth (IL)
• MIAC champion: Saint John'S (MN)
• NEWMAC champion: Springfield
• NJAC champion: Chris. Newport
• North Coast (NCAC) champion: Washu
• Northern Athletics (NACC) champion: Benedictine (IL)
• Northwest champion: Linfield
• Ohio (OAC) champion: Mount Union
• Old Dominion (ODAC) champion: Hampden-Sydney
• Presidents' (PAC) champion: Wash. & Jeff.
• Southern (SAA) champion: Berry
• SCIAC champion: Chapman
• Upper Midwest (UMAC) champion: Northwestern-St. Paul
• USA South champion: Lagrange
• WIAC champion: Wis.-Platteville

Pod Play · each of Seeds 1-8 hosts a pod of 4 unseeded teams

Pod 1 · Wis.-Platteville

Pod Round 1

9Hardin-Simmons

vs

12Springfield

PROJECTED: HARDIN-SIMMONS 32–23

HARDIN-SIMMONS proj. final 9–0 (50%) · SPRINGFIELD proj. final 9–1 (84%)

10Saint John'S (MN)

vs

11Baldwin Wallace

PROJECTED: SAINT JOHN'S (MN) 34–27

SAINT JOHN'S (MN) proj. final 10–0 (96%) · BALDWIN WALLACE proj. final 9–1 (79%)

Pod Round 2

1Wis.-Platteville

vs

9Hardin-Simmons

PROJECTED: WIS.-PLATTEVILLE 35–21

WIS.-PLATTEVILLE proj. final 9–1 (47%) · HARDIN-SIMMONS proj. final 9–0 (50%)

Pod Championship

1Wis.-Platteville

vs

10Saint John'S (MN)

PROJECTED: WIS.-PLATTEVILLE 35–20

WIS.-PLATTEVILLE proj. final 9–1 (47%) · SAINT JOHN'S (MN) proj. final 10–0 (96%)

Pod 2 · Cortland

Pod Round 1

13Utica

vs

16North Central (IL)

PROJECTED: NORTH CENTRAL (IL) 41–14

UTICA proj. final 9–1 (49%) · NORTH CENTRAL (IL) proj. final 9–1 (99%)

14Benedictine (IL)

vs

15Calvin

PROJECTED: CALVIN 45–11

BENEDICTINE (IL) proj. final 9–1 (54%) · CALVIN proj. final 8–2 (45%)

Pod Round 2

2Cortland

vs

16North Central (IL)

PROJECTED: NORTH CENTRAL (IL) 35–21

CORTLAND proj. final 10–0 (46%) · NORTH CENTRAL (IL) proj. final 9–1 (99%)

Pod Championship

15Calvin

vs

16North Central (IL)

PROJECTED: NORTH CENTRAL (IL) 67–0

CALVIN proj. final 8–2 (45%) · NORTH CENTRAL (IL) proj. final 9–1 (99%)

Pod 3 · Wheaton (IL)

Pod Round 1

17Heidelberg

vs

20Merchant Marine

PROJECTED: HEIDELBERG 39–17

HEIDELBERG proj. final 9–1 (58%) · MERCHANT MARINE proj. final 8–1 (63%)

18Mary Hardin-Baylor

vs

19Berry

PROJECTED: MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR 26–24

MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR proj. final 8–2 (55%) · BERRY proj. final 10–1 (73%)

Pod Round 2

3Wheaton (IL)

vs

17Heidelberg

PROJECTED: WHEATON (IL) 38–20

WHEATON (IL) proj. final 10–0 (89%) · HEIDELBERG proj. final 9–1 (58%)

Pod Championship

3Wheaton (IL)

vs

18Mary Hardin-Baylor

PROJECTED: WHEATON (IL) 33–22

WHEATON (IL) proj. final 10–0 (89%) · MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR proj. final 8–2 (55%)

Pod 4 · Endicott

Pod Round 1

21Hampden-Sydney

vs

24Depauw

PROJECTED: DEPAUW 42–18

HAMPDEN-SYDNEY proj. final 8–2 (55%) · DEPAUW proj. final 8–2 (50%)

22Trinity (TX)

vs

23Lewis & Clark

PROJECTED: TRINITY (TX) 54–3

TRINITY (TX) proj. final 9–1 (68%) · LEWIS & CLARK proj. final 8–2 (47%)

Pod Round 2

4Endicott

vs

24Depauw

PROJECTED: ENDICOTT 28–28

ENDICOTT proj. final 10–0 (97%) · DEPAUW proj. final 8–2 (50%)

Pod Championship

4Endicott

vs

22Trinity (TX)

PROJECTED: ENDICOTT 27–25

ENDICOTT proj. final 10–0 (97%) · TRINITY (TX) proj. final 9–1 (68%)

Pod 5 · Wis.-Whitewater

Pod Round 1

25Wash. & Jeff.

vs

28Linfield

PROJECTED: WASH. & JEFF. 30–26

WASH. & JEFF. proj. final 9–1 (52%) · LINFIELD proj. final 8–1 (84%)

26Lake Forest

vs

27Concordia Wisconsin

PROJECTED: LAKE FOREST 33–26

LAKE FOREST proj. final 10–0 (72%) · CONCORDIA WISCONSIN proj. final 9–1 (48%)

Pod Round 2

5Wis.-Whitewater

vs

25Wash. & Jeff.

PROJECTED: WIS.-WHITEWATER 46–9

WIS.-WHITEWATER proj. final 9–1 (58%) · WASH. & JEFF. proj. final 9–1 (52%)

Pod Championship

5Wis.-Whitewater

vs

26Lake Forest

PROJECTED: WIS.-WHITEWATER 86–0

WIS.-WHITEWATER proj. final 9–1 (58%) · LAKE FOREST proj. final 10–0 (72%)

Pod 6 · Washu

Pod Round 1

29Susquehanna

vs

32Lagrange

PROJECTED: SUSQUEHANNA 51–1

SUSQUEHANNA proj. final 9–1 (85%) · LAGRANGE proj. final 9–2 (48%)

30Chapman

vs

31Bridgewater St.

PROJECTED: CHAPMAN 50–4

CHAPMAN proj. final 8–1 (57%) · BRIDGEWATER ST. proj. final 9–1 (53%)

Pod Round 2

6Washu

vs

29Susquehanna

PROJECTED: SUSQUEHANNA 29–29

WASHU proj. final 10–0 (80%) · SUSQUEHANNA proj. final 9–1 (85%)

Pod Championship

29Susquehanna

vs

30Chapman

PROJECTED: SUSQUEHANNA 40–14

SUSQUEHANNA proj. final 9–1 (85%) · CHAPMAN proj. final 8–1 (57%)

Pod 7 · Hope

Pod Round 1

33Wartburg

vs

36Hanover

PROJECTED: WARTBURG 35–17

WARTBURG proj. final 8–2 (61%) · HANOVER proj. final 8–2 (82%)

34Ithaca

vs

35Mount Union

PROJECTED: MOUNT UNION 41–11

ITHACA proj. final 8–2 (57%) · MOUNT UNION proj. final 8–2 (68%)

Pod Round 2

7Hope

vs

33Wartburg

PROJECTED: HOPE 30–24

HOPE proj. final 10–0 (73%) · WARTBURG proj. final 8–2 (61%)

Pod Championship

7Hope

vs

35Mount Union

PROJECTED: MOUNT UNION 29–28

HOPE proj. final 10–0 (73%) · MOUNT UNION proj. final 8–2 (68%)

Pod 8 · Chris. Newport

Pod Round 1

37Carnegie Mellon

vs

40Northwestern-St. Paul

PROJECTED: CARNEGIE MELLON 75–0

CARNEGIE MELLON proj. final 7–3 (48%) · NORTHWESTERN-ST. PAUL proj. final 7–3 (48%)

38Monmouth (IL)

vs

39Eastern

PROJECTED: EASTERN 28–21

MONMOUTH (IL) proj. final 8–2 (82%) · EASTERN proj. final 7–3 (44%)

Pod Round 2

8Chris. Newport

vs

37Carnegie Mellon

PROJECTED: CHRIS. NEWPORT 28–24

CHRIS. NEWPORT proj. final 9–1 (52%) · CARNEGIE MELLON proj. final 7–3 (48%)

Pod Championship

8Chris. Newport

vs

39Eastern

PROJECTED: CHRIS. NEWPORT 37–12

CHRIS. NEWPORT proj. final 9–1 (52%) · EASTERN proj. final 7–3 (44%)

Quarterfinal

1Wis.-Platteville

vs

8Chris. Newport

PROJECTED: WIS.-PLATTEVILLE 47–6

WIS.-PLATTEVILLE proj. final 9–1 (47%) · CHRIS. NEWPORT proj. final 9–1 (52%)

4Endicott

vs

5Wis.-Whitewater

PROJECTED: WIS.-WHITEWATER 43–12

ENDICOTT proj. final 10–0 (97%) · WIS.-WHITEWATER proj. final 9–1 (58%)

Semifinal

1Wis.-Platteville

vs

5Wis.-Whitewater

PROJECTED: WIS.-PLATTEVILLE 28–23

WIS.-PLATTEVILLE proj. final 9–1 (48%) · WIS.-WHITEWATER proj. final 9–1 (57%)

Stagg Bowl

Wis.-Platteville

Semifinal

3Wheaton (IL)

vs

16North Central (IL)

PROJECTED: NORTH CENTRAL (IL) 30–29

WHEATON (IL) proj. final 10–0 (89%) · NORTH CENTRAL (IL) proj. final 9–1 (99%)

Quarterfinal

16North Central (IL)

vs

35Mount Union

PROJECTED: NORTH CENTRAL (IL) 33–26

NORTH CENTRAL (IL) proj. final 9–1 (99%) · MOUNT UNION proj. final 8–2 (68%)

3Wheaton (IL)

vs

29Susquehanna

PROJECTED: WHEATON (IL) 34–24

WHEATON (IL) proj. final 10–0 (89%) · SUSQUEHANNA proj. final 9–1 (85%)

Full Resume (40-Team Field)

SEED	TEAM	NPI	CONF	QUALIFIED AS
1 PROTECTED	Wis.-Platteville (7-0)	80.0771	WIAC	WIAC champion
2 PROTECTED	Cortland (7-0)	77.7221	EMPIRE-8	Empire 8 champion
3 PROTECTED	Wheaton (IL) (7-0)	76.7789	CCIW	CCIW champion
4 PROTECTED	Endicott (7-0)	76.4885	CNE	Commonwealth Coast champion
5 PROTECTED	Wis.-Whitewater (7-0)	74.8797	WIAC	At-large
6 PROTECTED	Washu (7-0)	74.2201	NCAC	North Coast (NCAC) champion
7 PROTECTED	Hope (7-0)	73.9853	MICHIGAN-INTERCOL. ATH. ASSN.	MIAA (Michigan) champion
8 PROTECTED	Chris. Newport (7-0)	73.6577	NJAC	NJAC champion
9	Hardin-Simmons (6-0)	73.3921	ASC	American Southwest champion
10	Saint John'S (MN) (7-0)	73.3256	MIAC	MIAC champion
11	Baldwin Wallace (7-0)	72.8087	OAC	At-large
12	Springfield (6-1)	71.8065	NEWMAC	NEWMAC champion
13	Utica (6-1)	70.5380	EMPIRE-8	At-large
14	Benedictine (IL) (7-0)	70.4458	NACC	Northern Athletics (NACC) champion
15	Calvin (7-0)	70.3104	MICHIGAN-INTERCOL. ATH. ASSN.	At-large
16	North Central (IL) (6-1)	69.3495	CCIW	At-large
17	Heidelberg (6-1)	69.1710	OAC	At-large
18	Mary Hardin-Baylor (6-1)	68.8569	ASC	At-large
19	Berry (6-1)	68.3041	SAA	Southern (SAA) champion
20	Merchant Marine (6-1)	68.0546	NEWMAC	At-large
21	Hampden-Sydney (6-1)	67.7897	ODAC	Old Dominion (ODAC) champion
22	Trinity (TX) (6-1)	67.1243	SAA	At-large
23	Lewis & Clark (6-1)	66.9654	NWC	At-large
24	Depauw (6-1)	66.9553	NCAC	At-large
25	Wash. & Jeff. (6-1)	66.8121	PAC	Presidents' (PAC) champion
26	Lake Forest (7-0)	66.6678	MWC	At-large
27	Concordia Wisconsin (7-0)	66.5875	NACC	At-large
28	Linfield (5-1)	66.0498	NWC	Northwest champion
29	Susquehanna (6-1)	66.0145	LANDMARK	Landmark champion
30	Chapman (6-1)	65.4561	SCIAC	SCIAC champion
31	Bridgewater St. (6-1)	63.6813	MASCAC	MASCAC champion
32	Lagrange (6-1)	63.1046	USA-SOUTH	USA South champion
33	Wartburg (5-2)	62.1642	AMERICAN-RIVERS	American Rivers champion
34	Ithaca (6-1)	61.3642	LIBERTY-LEAGUE	Liberty League champion
35	Mount Union (5-2)	61.2930	OAC	Ohio (OAC) champion
36	Hanover (5-2)	61.1668	HCAC	Heartland (HCAC) champion
37	Carnegie Mellon (5-2)	59.1210	CENTENNIAL	Centennial champion
38	Monmouth (IL) (5-2)	58.3662	MWC	Midwest (MWC) champion
39	Eastern (5-2)	58.0285	MIDDLE-ATLANTIC	Middle Atlantic (MAC) champion
40	Northwestern-St. Paul (4-3)	50.4774	UMAC	Upper Midwest (UMAC) champion

On the Bubble

	TEAM	NPI	CONF
--	John Carroll (6-1)	65.5583	NCAC	Next in line
--	Uw-River Falls (5-2)	65.3364	WIAC	Next in line
--	Cwru (6-1)	65.1968	PAC	Next in line
--	Trine (6-1)	64.1805	MICHIGAN-INTERCOL. ATH. ASSN.	Next in line
--	Suny Brockport (6-1)	63.9348	EMPIRE-8	Next in line
--	Franklin & Marshall (6-1)	63.8935	CENTENNIAL	Next in line
--	Rowan (6-1)	63.6369	NJAC	Next in line
--	Simpson (CA) (1-0)	63.4853	--	Next in line

NPI is the real NCAA Division III Power Index (Win%/SOS weighted split, home/road multipliers, a Quality Win Bonus, a minimum-wins floor that drops "hurtful" wins from the average) -- see /cfbpirate/api/v1 or the project write-up for the exact formula and every disclosed interpretive choice made where the public NCAA materials describe an outcome without a fully worked formula. "Conference champion" is a joint-simulation PROJECTION of each conference's remaining schedule (same methodology as the CFP page's own "Conference champion" note), not simply today's best record; still a disclosed proxy, since no title-game result is tracked in this library, same gap as the CFP/FCS pages. Seeds 1-8 each host a "pod" of 4 unseeded teams, assigned by NPI-rank grouping (ranks 9-12 to seed 1's pod, 13-16 to seed 2's, etc.) rather than the real committee's 4-region geography -- this library has no location data for nationally-ingested D3 teams to build the actual regions/travel-distance pairing from. Each pod plays down to a pod champion across 3 rounds (a disclosed, not-necessarily-real Round 2 pairing, same class of choice as the FCS page's own Round 2 assignment), then the 8 pod champions converge through a two-sided bracket -- seeds 1/4/5/8's pods on one side, 2/3/6/7's on the other, the same quartering convention as every other bracket on this site -- to the Stagg Bowl. A matchup marked "ADVANCES (seed default)" means there isn't enough completed-game data yet to project it, so the better seed carries forward without a fabricated score. NPI solver: 246 teams, 12 passes, converged.