D2 Playoff Picture (Real NPI)

Who's in, who's out, and the regional bracket picture for the 32-team D2 field -- seeded by the real NCAA Power Index, recomputed live from this site's own game data.

If the season ended today. 32-team field, 8 per Super Region (4 auto-bids + 4 at-large by real NCAA Power Index), NPI computed and seeded separately within each region's own 4-conference pool -- not one national ranking. Each region runs its own 8-team single-elimination bracket (1v8/2v7/3v6/4v5, no byes), simulated all the way to a region champion; the 4 region champions then play a simulated National Final Four (see below) to a projected national champion.

Super Region 1

CIAA, MEC, NE10, PSAC

First Round

vs
PROJECTED: SLIPPERY ROCK 49–15
SLIPPERY ROCK proj. final 11–0 (81%) · CHARLESTON (WV) proj. final 7–4 (59%)
vs
PROJECTED: KUTZTOWN 51–2
KUTZTOWN proj. final 11–0 (60%) · ASSUMPTION proj. final 8–2 (54%)
vs
PROJECTED: EAST STROUDSBURG 31–22
EAST STROUDSBURG proj. final 9–2 (55%) · VIRGINIA UNION proj. final 9–1 (53%)
vs
PROJECTED: INDIANA (PA) 37–19
INDIANA (PA) proj. final 8–3 (42%) · VIRGINIA ST. proj. final 8–2 (48%)

Region Semifinal

vs
PROJECTED: SLIPPERY ROCK 35–24
SLIPPERY ROCK proj. final 11–0 (81%) · INDIANA (PA) proj. final 8–3 (42%)
vs
PROJECTED: KUTZTOWN 36–18
KUTZTOWN proj. final 11–0 (76%) · EAST STROUDSBURG proj. final 9–2 (61%)

Region Final

vs
PROJECTED: SLIPPERY ROCK 30–28
SLIPPERY ROCK proj. final 11–0 (81%) · KUTZTOWN proj. final 11–0 (60%)
SEEDTEAMNPICONFQUALIFIED AS
1Slippery Rock (8-0)72.5360PSACAt-large
2Kutztown (8-0)67.1252PSACPSAC champion
3East Stroudsburg (7-1)66.3971PSACAt-large
4Indiana (PA) (5-2)60.2244PSACAt-large
5Virginia St. (7-1)60.1137CIAAAt-large
6Virginia Union (6-1)59.2420CIAACIAA champion
7Assumption (5-2)57.9661NE10NE10 champion
8Charleston (WV) (4-4)50.3181MECMEC champion

Super Region 2

Conference Carolinas, Gulf South (GSC), South Atlantic (SAC), SIAC

First Round

vs
PROJECTED: VALDOSTA ST. 37–20
KENTUCKY ST. proj. final 8–2 (75%) · VALDOSTA ST. proj. final 7–2 (45%)
vs
PROJECTED: MARS HILL 33–22
EDWARD WATERS proj. final 7–3 (51%) · MARS HILL proj. final 7–3 (43%)
vs
PROJECTED: BENEDICT 32–17
BENEDICT proj. final 9–1 (76%) · CENTRAL ST. (OH) proj. final 6–4 (51%)
vs
PROJECTED: CARSON-NEWMAN 28–21
CARSON-NEWMAN proj. final 9–2 (46%) · NORTH GREENVILLE proj. final 8–2 (79%)

Region Semifinal

vs
PROJECTED: CARSON-NEWMAN 27–26
CARSON-NEWMAN proj. final 9–2 (46%) · VALDOSTA ST. proj. final 7–2 (45%)
vs
PROJECTED: BENEDICT 23–22
BENEDICT proj. final 9–1 (79%) · MARS HILL proj. final 7–3 (43%)

Region Final

vs
PROJECTED: CARSON-NEWMAN 24–21
BENEDICT proj. final 9–1 (79%) · CARSON-NEWMAN proj. final 9–2 (46%)
SEEDTEAMNPICONFQUALIFIED AS
1Kentucky St. (7-2)62.1310SIACAt-large
2Edward Waters (6-2)61.6378SIACAt-large
3Benedict (7-1)61.2569SIACSIAC champion
4Carson-Newman (7-1)60.8722SACSouth Atlantic (SAC) champion
5North Greenville (7-1)60.8419CONFERENCE-CAROLINASConference Carolinas champion
6Central St. (OH) (5-3)60.3056SIACAt-large
7Mars Hill (5-2)58.1141SACAt-large
8Valdosta St. (5-1)55.9769GULF-SOUTHGulf South (GSC) champion

Super Region 3

GLIAC, GLVC, G-MAC, NSIC

First Round

vs
PROJECTED: FERRIS ST. 56–2
FERRIS ST. proj. final 11–0 (94%) · TRUMAN ST. proj. final 7–4 (74%)
vs
PROJECTED: NORTHWOOD 28–26
NORTHWOOD proj. final 10–1 (54%) · MICHIGAN TECH proj. final 8–3 (50%)
vs
PROJECTED: MINNESOTA ST. 30–22
MINNESOTA ST. proj. final 11–0 (51%) · MINN. DULUTH proj. final 9–2 (55%)
vs
PROJECTED: DAVENPORT 28–20
DAVENPORT proj. final 9–2 (46%) · FINDLAY proj. final 9–2 (57%)

Region Semifinal

vs
PROJECTED: FERRIS ST. 47–9
FERRIS ST. proj. final 11–0 (98%) · DAVENPORT proj. final 9–2 (46%)
vs
PROJECTED: MINNESOTA ST. 34–17
NORTHWOOD proj. final 10–1 (54%) · MINNESOTA ST. proj. final 11–0 (51%)

Region Final

vs
PROJECTED: FERRIS ST. 37–20
FERRIS ST. proj. final 11–0 (94%) · MINNESOTA ST. proj. final 11–0 (51%)

Champion

SEEDTEAMNPICONFQUALIFIED AS
1Ferris St. (8-0)67.9659GLIACGLIAC champion
2Northwood (8-0)67.0078G-MACG-MAC champion
3Minnesota St. (8-0)65.6625NSICNSIC champion
4Davenport (8-0)62.3997GLIACAt-large
5Findlay (7-1)60.4287G-MACAt-large
6Minn. Duluth (6-2)60.1976NSICAt-large
7Michigan Tech (6-2)59.3708GLIACAt-large
8Truman St. (4-4)48.9277GLVCGLVC champion

Super Region 4

Great American (GAC), Lone Star (LSC), MIAA (Mid-America), RMAC

First Round

vs
PROJECTED: HARDING 40–17
HARDING proj. final 11–0 (98%) · OUACHITA BAPTIST proj. final 8–3 (50%)
vs
PROJECTED: NORTHWEST MO. ST. 29–24
EMPORIA ST. proj. final 10–1 (39%) · NORTHWEST MO. ST. proj. final 8–2 (46%)
vs
PROJECTED: CSU PUEBLO 38–21
CSU PUEBLO proj. final 11–0 (58%) · HENDERSON ST. proj. final 9–2 (47%)
vs
PROJECTED: WESTERN COLO. 30–27
WESTERN COLO. proj. final 10–1 (55%) · CENTRAL WASH. proj. final 9–2 (75%)

Region Semifinal

vs
PROJECTED: HARDING 36–21
HARDING proj. final 11–0 (98%) · WESTERN COLO. proj. final 10–1 (55%)
vs
PROJECTED: NORTHWEST MO. ST. 30–26
CSU PUEBLO proj. final 11–0 (58%) · NORTHWEST MO. ST. proj. final 8–2 (46%)

Region Final

vs
PROJECTED: HARDING 31–24
HARDING proj. final 11–0 (98%) · NORTHWEST MO. ST. proj. final 8–2 (46%)

Champion

SEEDTEAMNPICONFQUALIFIED AS
1Harding (8-0)68.2820GACGreat American (GAC) champion
2Emporia St. (8-0)63.7360MID-AMERICA-INTERCOLLEGIATEAt-large
3Csu Pueblo (8-0)62.7800RMACRMAC champion
4Western Colo. (8-0)62.1501RMACAt-large
5Central Wash. (6-2)61.1693LONE-STARLone Star (LSC) champion
6Henderson St. (7-1)58.7613GACAt-large
7Northwest Mo. St. (6-1)58.3018MID-AMERICA-INTERCOLLEGIATEMIAA (Mid-America) champion
8Ouachita Baptist (6-2)58.1137GACAt-large

National Final Four

The 4 Super Region champions, reseeded 1-4 by NPI for the national semifinal (see the methodology note below for why this is a disclosed stand-in for the real committee's post-quarterfinal reseed).

1Slippery Rock (Super Region 1)
2Harding (Super Region 4)
3Ferris St. (Super Region 3)
4Carson-Newman (Super Region 2)

National Semifinal

vs
PROJECTED: SLIPPERY ROCK 33–21
SLIPPERY ROCK proj. final 11–0 (81%) · CARSON-NEWMAN proj. final 9–2 (46%)
vs
PROJECTED: FERRIS ST. 32–29
HARDING proj. final 11–0 (98%) · FERRIS ST. proj. final 11–0 (94%)

Championship

vs
PROJECTED: FERRIS ST. 43–20
SLIPPERY ROCK proj. final 11–0 (81%) · FERRIS ST. proj. final 11–0 (94%)

Champion

NPI is the real NCAA Division II Power Index (25%/75% Win%/SOS split, 1.05x/0.95x road/home win multipliers, a Quality Win Bonus above 52.00, and a minimum-wins floor of 6 -- the NCAA's own stated floor is "5.5, half the maximum regular-season games," applied here as an integer ceiling since win counts are integers and the source names no other resolution) -- see /cfbpirate/api/v1 or the project write-up for every disclosed interpretive choice. Super Regions are the NCAA's own fixed conference groupings, not a geography computation. A D2 team whose conference isn't one of these 16 (an independent, or a closed/non-NCAA program) has no region and is not in this field -- a real, disclosed gap, not a silent drop. "Conference champion" is a joint-simulation PROJECTION of each conference's remaining schedule (same methodology as the CFP page's own "Conference champion" note), not simply today's best record; still a disclosed proxy, since no title-game result is tracked in this library. The National Final Four's 1-4 reseed by NPI is this site's own disclosed stand-in for the real committee's post-quarterfinal reseed, not a claim to reproduce it. A matchup marked "ADVANCES (seed default)" means there isn't enough completed-game data yet to project it, so the better seed carries forward without a fabricated score. NPI solver: 160 teams, 23 passes, converged.