In short: Franklin & Marshall Division III college football, 2026 season: 7-1 (Centennial). Last game: W 26-0 vs Mcdaniel on October 31, 2026. Next: vs Carnegie Mellon, November 7, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, the CFB Pirate rating and projections.
The turnover battle could decide Franklin & Marshall's next game, against Carnegie Mellon, and the recent returns favor Carnegie Mellon. Franklin & Marshall forced 2.5 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (4-0), #21 in D-III in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that hot start (3-1), the Diplomats have forced 1.0 takeaways per game, a 60% drop, #172 in D-III in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.6 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.6 per game), Franklin & Marshall forced 36% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Meanwhile, Carnegie Mellon's ball security has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Tartans have committed 1.5 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (3-1), #102 in D-III during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in D-III (1.4 per game on the season, which would rank #155). Against those norms, Carnegie Mellon turned it over 7% more than those defenses usually force. Carnegie Mellon offers Franklin & Marshall a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
The number to watch when Franklin & Marshall meets Carnegie Mellon is Franklin & Marshall's scoring. Franklin & Marshall averaged 34.0 points per game over its first 4 games (4-0), #58 in D-III through those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (3-1), the Diplomats have averaged 26.5 points per game, a 22% drop, #113 in D-III through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Franklin & Marshall's last 4 opponents have averaged 24.9 points per game, a #124 scoring defense in D-III on the season, against 28.5 points per game, #156 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (24.9 points per game), Franklin & Marshall scored 7% more than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Conversely, Carnegie Mellon's defense has been one of D-III's better units in recent weeks. The Tartans have allowed 16.8 points per game over their last 4 games (3-1), #60 in D-III over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in D-III (25.5 points per game on the season, which would rank #127). Against those norms, Carnegie Mellon held those offenses 34% below what they usually score. Franklin & Marshall's offense has held up better than the raw numbers suggest, which makes this a closer matchup than the recent results imply.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Franklin & Marshall's season has been the direction of its run defense. Franklin & Marshall allowed 2.3 yards per carry (190 yards on 82 rushes) over its first 4 games (4-0), #32 in D-III within that period. In the 4 games since that hot start (3-1), the Diplomats have allowed 3.7 yards per carry (483 yards on 129 rushes), a 62% rise, #110 in D-III across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Franklin & Marshall's last 4 opponents have averaged 4.1 yards per carry, a #101 rushing attack in D-III on the season, against 3.6 yards per carry, #141 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.1 yards per carry), Franklin & Marshall held those rushing attacks 8% below their usual yards per carry. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, Franklin & Marshall ranks #73 in D-III in run defense. Carnegie Mellon's ground game, #186 of 244 (3.0 yards per carry), could be the get-right matchup Franklin & Marshall needs. Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings call it close: Franklin & Marshall's front and Carnegie Mellon's offensive line grade out about even.
Franklin & Marshall's third-down defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Diplomats allowed 30% of third downs (15-for-50) over their first 4 games (4-0), #75 in D-III during those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (3-1), Franklin & Marshall has allowed 36.6% of third downs (15-for-41), a 22% rise, #117 in D-III during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Franklin & Marshall's last 4 opponents have averaged 39.3%, a #97 third-down offense in D-III on the season, against 35.4%, #136 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (39.3%), Franklin & Marshall held those offenses 7% below their usual third-down rate. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, the Diplomats rank #89 in D-III in third-down defense. Carnegie Mellon's third-down offense, #211 of 244 (24.2%), could be the get-right matchup Franklin & Marshall needs.
Franklin & Marshall averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt (646 yards on 97 attempts) over its first 4 games (4-0), #147 in D-III during that stretch. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Diplomats have averaged 7.7 yards per pass attempt (687 yards on 89 attempts), a 16% rise, #92 in D-III over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.0 yards per attempt on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.2 yards per attempt), Franklin & Marshall threw for 7% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. On the season, Franklin & Marshall ranks #110 in D-III in passing. That form gets a real test against Carnegie Mellon, whose pass defense ranks #10 in D-III (5.2 yards per attempt). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Carnegie Mellon the edge: Franklin & Marshall's offensive line grades +1.1 against Carnegie Mellon's front at +2.8 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Franklin & Marshall has played a tougher-than-average schedule in the pool so far (#71 of 246), and what is left is one of the toughest slates (#14 of 243): the hard part is still ahead.
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#71 of 246
avg opponent rating -11.4 over 8 games · 0 vs top-25 D-III
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#14 of 243
avg opponent rating +9.6 over 2 games · 1 vs top-25
Lebanon … W 31-7@Westmins… W 45-8@Catholic W 31-17Gettysbu… W 29-0@Muhlenbe… L 28-31Dickinson W 17-7Ursinus W 35-17@Mcdaniel W 26-0Carnegie…@Johns Ho…
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 31 game; last updated Nov 1; roster and numbers checked Sep 18.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 56.8/100 (+8 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 49.7/100 (-5 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 91.6/100 (-58 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 86.6/100 (-62 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-11-07
vs
CARNEGIE MELLON
5-3
31.8
2026-11-13
at
JOHNS HOPKINS
3-5
22.5
LAST YEAR
F&M finished 2025 at 9-2. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 29-28 over JOHNS HOPKINS (JOHNS HOPKINS finished 86% that season). Toughest loss: 24-28 to EASTERN (4-point margin).
• [CLUB] Franklin & Marshall has won 3 straight, and a win would make it 4 in a row. The last time they won 4 or more in a row was 2026, a run of 4.
• [CLUB] Franklin & Marshall has gone 21 straight games holding the opponent under 8.0 yards per attempt (November 16, 2024 through October 31, 2026), going 18-3 over that stretch, a school-record 21 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• [CLUB] Franklin & Marshall has gone 10 straight games holding the opponent under 6.0 yards per play (November 15, 2025 through October 31, 2026), going 8-2 over that stretch, matching the program record of 10 straight on record.
• [CLUB] Franklin & Marshall has gone 5 straight games rushing for 100+ yards (October 3, 2026 through October 31, 2026), going 4-1 over that stretch, matching the program record of 5 straight on record.
• [CLUB] Franklin & Marshall is 14-0 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points in the games on file (14 such games).
• [CLUB] Franklin & Marshall has gone 10 straight games being held under 5.0 yards per carry (November 15, 2025 through October 31, 2026), going 8-2 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2024 (19 games).
• [PLAYER] Louis Paris has gone 6 straight games running for a touchdown, the longest such streak of his career.
• [PLAYER] Jack Harrison has 285 receiving yards over his last 3 games (95.0 a game, October 17, 2026 through October 31, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Quincy Long has gone 2 straight games recording a sack, the longest such streak of his career.
• [PLAYER] Anthony Valdez has never had a game rushing for 100+ yards for Franklin & Marshall, over a 20-game career on record. His career high is 80, set October 17, 2026 against Dickinson (W, 17-7).
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
F&M HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• F&M commits fewer than 3 giveaways (.810), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• F&M holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards (.838), and has won 16 straight when doing so
• F&M rushes for 150+ yards (.999), and has won 17 straight when doing so
• F&M holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.761), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• F&M's offense has failed to reach 7.0 YPP in 15 straight games (10/11/2025-10/31/2026), going 13-2 over that stretch.
• F&M's offense has failed to reach 5.0 YPC in 10 straight games (11/15/2025-10/31/2026), going 8-2 over that stretch.
• F&M's defense has limited opponents to under 6.0 YPP in 10 straight games (11/15/2025-10/31/2026), going 8-2 over that stretch.
• F&M's defense has limited opponents to under 7.0 YPP in 10 straight games (11/15/2025-10/31/2026), going 8-2 over that stretch.
• F&M's offense has averaged 200.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 50-game average is 125.8 rush yards per game. (+59%)
• F&M's defense has averaged 8.0 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 50-game average is 16.9 points allowed per game. (-53%)
• F&M's defense has averaged 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 50-game average is 1.7 takeaways per game. (-42%)
• F&M is 28-3 (.903) in games decided by more than 8 points
• F&M's offense has averaged 0.8 giveaways per game over their last 20 games. Their 50-game average is 1.3 giveaways per game. (-33%)
• F&M's offense has averaged 147.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 50-game average is 215.4 pass yards per game. (-31%)
• F&M's defense has averaged 4.7 YPC over their last 20 games. Their 48-game average is 3.6 YPC. (+30%)
• FRANKLIN & MARSHALL has held the opponent under 100 rushing in 2 straight games (10/24/26–10/31/26). It has not held the opponent under 100 rushing in 3 straight since 9/21/24–11/2/24 (2024).
• FRANKLIN & MARSHALL has won 3 straight (10/17/26–10/31/26). It has not won 4 straight since 9/4/26–10/3/26 (2026). It has reached 4 straight 3 times in the last 4 years and has won a high of 8 straight (2025) in that span.
F&M's defense has averaged 8.0 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 50-game average is 16.9 points allowed per game. (-53%)
F&M's defense has averaged 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 50-game average is 1.7 takeaways per game. (-42%)
F&M's defense has averaged 4.7 YPC over their last 20 games. Their 48-game average is 3.6 YPC. (+30%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where FRANKLIN & MARSHALL sits among 246 D3 teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 53.4, Defense Grade 89.0.
POINTS ALLOWED / GAME: FRANKLIN & MARSHALL VS THE D3
FRANKLIN & MARSHALL ranks #12 of 246 D3 teams in points allowed per game (10.9) -- a strength worth a look.
FRANKLIN & MARSHALL: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 4 seasons on file -- 10.5 in 2022 to 14.6 in 2025.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
2.40 points per offensive possession (89 possessions on file, 2026)
Late & close (4th quarter or later, within one score): 27.8% success rate, 5.6% explosive play rate (18 snaps)
Down & Distance
Plays
Play-Type Mix
1 & short
5
rush 100%
1 & medium
9
rush 89%, pass 11%
1 & long
188
rush 69%, pass 30%, sack 1%
2 & short
35
rush 77%, pass 20%, sack 3%
2 & medium
51
rush 67%, pass 33%
2 & long
71
rush 55%, pass 42%, sack 3%
3 & short
34
rush 79%, pass 21%
3 & medium
30
pass 57%, rush 33%, sack 10%
3 & long
36
pass 69%, rush 28%, sack 3%
4 & short
6
rush 83%, pass 17%
4 & medium
4
pass 50%, rush 50%
4 & long
1
rush 100%
GARBAGE TIME PROFILE
0 of 4 games on file this season hit garbage time
Average margin: +13.5 final vs. +13.5 before garbage time — this team plays about as close as the scoreboard shows (+0.0 pts/game)
See the Garbage Time Reality Check page for the full leaderboard. This is informational only — it never changes this team's ranking or projection elsewhere on the site.
ADVANCED PLAYER STATS
JADON PRINZIVALLI (QB): EPA not on file yet, 40.8% success rate, 50 dropbacks
NA'ROME RAYBORN (QB): EPA not on file yet, 65.0% success rate, 21 dropbacks
Expected Points Added, averaged over every dropback (pass attempt or sack) that has a value on file. Positive means the play typically moved the team closer to scoring more than an average play in that situation would; negative means it cost expected points.
Inputs: Each play's EPA (from CFBD's own model for most FBS/FCS plays, or this project's own trained model for a smaller share of other games) averaged over the QB's dropbacks. The dropback count with an EPA value on file (not every play has one) is always shown alongside the rate, and boards require at least 20 such plays before a QB qualifies -- a thin sample was found live to distort rankings otherwise.
Passing Success Rate
The share of dropbacks that were 'successful' by a standard down-based yardstick, regardless of whether EPA is available for that play.
Inputs: Gained at least 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or the full distance (or a touchdown) on 3rd/4th -- computed from down, distance, yards gained and touchdown, all structured fields.
Rushing Success Rate
The same down-based success standard as passing success rate, applied to a player's carries.
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the ball carrier.
Receiving Success Rate
The same down-based success standard, applied to a player's targets (thrown to him, complete or not).
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the targeted receiver.
3rd Down Splits
How a player performed specifically on 3rd down plays this season -- success rate, touchdown rate, and the underlying counting stats, isolated from every other down.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 3 and this player was involved (passer, rusher, receiver, or a tackle/sack/INT/fumble recovery on defense).
4th Down Splits
The same idea as 3rd Down Splits, isolated to 4th down plays -- the highest-leverage down in football.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 4 and this player was involved.
What is "garbage time"?
A 7-tier rule (bigger lead required as the clock runs down) that flags plays happening in a game that is no longer competitive -- e.g. a 30+ point lead right after halftime, or a 12+ point lead inside the final 3 minutes.
Inputs: Quarter, game clock, and the score of both teams at the time of the play. Garbage-time plays are not thrown out -- they count for 35% of a normal play in every "garbage-time-adjusted" figure, so a player who pads stats once a game is decided shows up as such rather than being invisible.
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED
11/06/2026 00:14
