In short: Emporia St. Division II college football, 2026 season: 8-1 (Mid America Intercollegiate). Last game: L 14-59 vs Northwest Mo. St. on October 31, 2026. Next: at Fort Hays St., November 14, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, the CFB Pirate rating and projections.
The number to watch when Emporia St. meets Fort Hays St. is Emporia St.'s scoring defense. Emporia St. allowed 18.7 points per game over its first 6 games (6-0), #28 in D-II in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), the Hornets have allowed 37.7 points per game, a 102% rise, #131 in D-II in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Emporia St.'s last 3 opponents have averaged 33.6 points per game, a #38 offense in D-II on the season, against 26.6 points per game, #86 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (33.6 points per game), Emporia St. allowed 12% more than those offenses usually score. Meanwhile, Fort Hays St.'s offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Tigers have averaged 19.3 points per game over their last 3 games (0-3), #120 in D-II during that time. Those games came against some of the better scoring defenses in D-II (22.0 points per game on the season, which would rank #48). Against those norms, Fort Hays St. scored 12% less than those defenses usually allow. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. Emporia St. is 6-0 this season when it holds opponents under 25, and 2-1 when it doesn't.
The turnover battle could decide Emporia St.'s next game, against Fort Hays St., and the recent returns favor Emporia St.. Emporia St. forced 1.8 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (4-0), #41 in D-II through those games. In the 5 games since that slow start (4-1), the Hornets have forced 3.0 takeaways per game, a 71% rise, #3 in D-II through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Emporia St.'s last 5 opponents have averaged 1.8 per game, a #122 offense in D-II on the season, against 1.4 per game, #71 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.8 per game), Emporia St. forced 66% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Meanwhile, Fort Hays St.'s ball security has struggled in recent weeks. The Tigers have committed 2.6 giveaways per game over their last 5 games (1-4), #151 in D-II over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better defenses in D-II (1.7 per game on the season, which would rank #53). Against those norms, Fort Hays St. turned it over 50% more than those defenses usually force. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Emporia St..
NOTES
The biggest worry in Emporia St.'s season has been the direction of its pass defense. Emporia St. allowed 4.7 yards per pass attempt (503 yards on 108 attempts) over its first 4 games (4-0), #3 in D-II within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (4-1), the Hornets have allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt (1,775 yards on 248 attempts), a 54% rise, #85 in D-II across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Emporia St.'s last 5 opponents have averaged 7.3 yards per attempt, a #81 passing attack in D-II on the season, against 6.6 yards per attempt, #115 for the first 4. On the season, Emporia St. ranks #37 in D-II in pass defense. Fort Hays St.'s passing game sits in the middle of the pack, #95 in D-II (7.1 yards per attempt). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings call it close: Emporia St.'s front and Fort Hays St.'s offensive line grade out about even.
Emporia St.'s third-down offense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Hornets converted 52.8% of third downs (28-for-53) over their first 3 games (3-0), #17 in D-II during those games. In the 6 games since that hot start (5-1), Emporia St. has converted 35.1% of third downs (27-for-77), a 34% drop, #116 in D-II during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 44% on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (43.5%), Emporia St. converted third downs 19% less often than those defenses usually allow. On the season, the Hornets rank #59 in D-II in third-down offense. Fort Hays St.'s third-down defense sits in the middle of the pack, #75 in D-II (39.8%).
Something changed for Emporia St.'s defense after its first 4 games. Emporia St. allowed 4.5 yards per play (1,314 yards on 290 snaps) over its first 4 games (4-0), #22 in D-II during that stretch. In the 5 games since that hot start (4-1), the Hornets have allowed 5.8 yards per play (2,387 yards on 414 snaps), a 27% rise, #93 in D-II over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.5 yards per play on the season. On the season, Emporia St. ranks #58 in D-II in yards per play allowed. Fort Hays St.'s offense sits in the middle of the pack, #72 in D-II (5.7 yards per play). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings call it close: Emporia St.'s front and Fort Hays St.'s offensive line grade out about even.
The Hornets allowed 4.8 yards per carry (675 yards on 140 rushes) over their first 3 games (3-0), #105 in D-II over that timeframe. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 6 games since that slow start (5-1), Emporia St. has allowed 3.6 yards per carry (748 yards on 208 rushes), a 25% drop, #50 in D-II over that span. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Emporia St.'s last 6 opponents have averaged 4.0 yards per carry, a #95 rushing attack in D-II on the season, against 4.7 yards per carry, #53 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.0 yards per carry), Emporia St. held those rushing attacks 9% below their usual yards per carry. On the season, the Hornets rank #71 in D-II in run defense. Fort Hays St.'s ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #59 in D-II (4.5 yards per carry). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings call it close: Emporia St.'s front and Fort Hays St.'s offensive line grade out about even.
Emporia St.'s third-down defense has won on third down as the season has progressed. Emporia St. allowed 43.1% of third downs (22-for-51) over its first 3 games (3-0), #104 in D-II in that timeframe. In the 6 games since that slow start (5-1), the Hornets have allowed 34.5% of third downs (30-for-87), a 20% drop, #43 in D-II in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Emporia St.'s last 6 opponents have averaged 39.9%, a #85 third-down offense in D-II on the season, against 43.6%, #49 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (39.9%), Emporia St. held those offenses 14% below their usual third-down rate. On the season, Emporia St. ranks #61 in D-II in third-down defense. That form gets a real test against Fort Hays St., whose third-down offense ranks #39 in D-II (45%).
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Emporia St. has played one of the toughest schedules in the pool so far (#7 of 160), and what is left is a tougher-than-average slate (#21 of 132).
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#7 of 160
avg opponent rating +12.6 over 10 games · 6 vs top-25 D-II
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#21 of 132
avg opponent rating +13.8 over 1 games · 1 vs top-25
@Minot St. W 36-30@Pittsbur… W 21-10Michigan… W 34-20Neb.-Kea… W 19-9Missouri… W 34-22@Mo. Sout… W 35-21Central … W 23-16Central … W 58-38@Northwes… L 14-59Washburn@Fort Hay…
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 31 game; last updated Nov 1; roster and numbers checked Sep 18.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 89.6/100 (+74 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 44.7/100 (-15 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 69.8/100 (-22 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 61.7/100 (-15 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-11-07
vs
WASHBURN
6-4
28.4
2026-11-14
at
FORT HAYS ST.
3-6
24.7
LAST YEAR
ES finished 2025 at 5-6. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 31-27 over CENTRAL MO. (CENTRAL MO. finished 45% that season). Toughest loss: 7-13 to FORT HAYS ST. (6-point margin).
• [CLUB] Emporia St. has gone 21 straight games being held under 7.0 yards per play (November 16, 2024 through October 31, 2026), going 13-8 over that stretch, a school-record 21 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• [CLUB] Emporia St. has gone 20 straight games being held under 8.0 yards per attempt (August 28, 2025 through October 31, 2026), going 13-7 over that stretch, a school-record 20 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• [CLUB] Emporia St. is 16-0 all time when scoring 40+ points in the games on file (16 such games).
• [CLUB] Emporia St. is 21-2 all time when holding the opponent under 150 rushing yards. Emporia St.'s last loss when holding the opponent under 150 rushing yards was October 18, 2025 against Central Okla. (L, 22-56).
• [CLUB] Emporia St. has gone 9 straight games forcing 1+ turnover (August 27, 2026 through October 31, 2026), going 8-1 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2023 (10 games).
• [PLAYER] Jamison Sarver has 920 passing yards over his last 4 games (230.0 a game, October 10, 2026 through October 31, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Ethan Schultze has 5 touchdown catches over his last 3 games (1.7 a game, October 17, 2026 through October 31, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Clem Mccullough has gone 3 straight games intercepting a pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• [PLAYER] Jamison Sarver has gone 2 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 3 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, during the 2025 season.
• [PLAYER] Trenden Collins has gone 2 straight games catching a touchdown pass, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 5 straight games catching a touchdown pass, during the 2024 season.
• [PLAYER] Victor Chionuma has gone 2 straight games running for a touchdown, the longest such streak of his career.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
ES HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• ES holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.795), and has won 7 straight when doing so
• ES commits fewer than 2 giveaways (.853), and has won 8 straight when doing so
• ES rushes for 100+ yards (.838), but most recently lost to Northwest Mo. St. when doing so
• ES holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards (.913), and has won 7 straight when doing so
• ES's offense has failed to reach 7.0 YPP in 21 straight games (11/16/2024-10/31/2026), going 13-8 over that stretch.
• ES's offense has failed to reach 8.0 YPA in 20 straight games (08/28/2025-10/31/2026), going 13-7 over that stretch.
• ES's defense has forced 1+ turnover in 9 straight games (08/27/2026-10/31/2026), going 8-1 over that stretch.
• ES's defense has averaged 3.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 55-game average is 2.0 takeaways per game. (+87%)
• ES's offense has averaged 2.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 55-game average is 1.3 giveaways per game. (+59%)
• ES's defense has averaged 355.0 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 55-game average is 240.7 pass yards per game. (+48%)
• ES's defense has averaged 37.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 55-game average is 26.0 points allowed per game. (+45%)
• ES holds its opponents under 159.0 rushing yards (ES's own median) (.923)
• ES rushes for 115.0+ yards (ES's own median) (.897)
• ES is 29-5 (.853) when it wins the turnover battle
• ES's defense has forced 2+ turnovers in 3 straight games (10/17/2026-10/31/2026), going 2-1 over that stretch.
• EMPORIA ST. has allowed 30+ in 2 straight games (10/24/26–10/31/26). It has not allowed 30+ in 3 straight since 9/6/25–9/27/25 (2025). It has reached 3 straight 2 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 5 straight (2024) in that span.
• EMPORIA ST. has forced 2+ turnovers in 3 straight games (10/17/26–10/31/26). It has not forced 2+ turnovers in 4 straight since 9/14/24–10/25/24 (2024). It has reached 4 straight 2 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 6 straight (2024) in that span.
• EMPORIA ST. has allowed 400+ total yards in 2 straight games (10/24/26–10/31/26). It has not allowed 400+ total yards in 3 straight since 9/6/25–9/27/25 (2025). It has reached 3 straight 3 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 5 straight (2024) in that span.
ES's defense has averaged 3.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 55-game average is 2.0 takeaways per game. (+87%)
ES's defense has averaged 355.0 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 55-game average is 240.7 pass yards per game. (+48%)
ES's defense has averaged 37.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 55-game average is 26.0 points allowed per game. (+45%)
ES's defense has averaged 122.4 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 55-game average is 162.0 rush yards per game. (-24%)
ES's defense has averaged 484.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 55-game average is 402.7 total yards per game. (+20%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where EMPORIA ST. sits among 160 D2 teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 67.2, Defense Grade 65.8.
TURNOVER MARGIN / GAME: EMPORIA ST. VS THE D2
EMPORIA ST. ranks #12 of 160 D2 teams in turnover margin per game (1.00) -- a strength worth a look.
EMPORIA ST.: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 4 seasons on file -- 14.2 in 2022 to 6.7 in 2025.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
1.86 points per offensive possession (123 possessions on file, 2026)
Late & close (4th quarter or later, within one score): 47.2% success rate, 8.3% explosive play rate (36 snaps)
Down & Distance
Plays
Play-Type Mix
1 & short
9
rush 67%, pass 33%
1 & medium
2
pass 50%, rush 50%
1 & long
245
pass 51%, rush 47%, sack 1%
2 & short
33
pass 55%, rush 42%, sack 3%
2 & medium
67
pass 57%, rush 43%
2 & long
95
pass 62%, rush 38%
3 & short
36
pass 50%, rush 50%
3 & medium
47
pass 81%, rush 15%, sack 4%
3 & long
47
pass 70%, rush 26%, sack 4%
4 & short
5
rush 60%, pass 40%
4 & medium
6
pass 50%, rush 50%
GARBAGE TIME PROFILE
0 of 5 games on file this season hit garbage time
Average margin: +11.8 final vs. +11.8 before garbage time — this team plays about as close as the scoreboard shows (+0.0 pts/game)
See the Garbage Time Reality Check page for the full leaderboard. This is informational only — it never changes this team's ranking or projection elsewhere on the site.
ADVANCED PLAYER STATS
BEN HARRIS (QB): EPA not on file yet, 42.2% success rate, 85 dropbacks
JAMISON SARVER (QB): EPA not on file yet, 40.2% success rate, 83 dropbacks
Expected Points Added, averaged over every dropback (pass attempt or sack) that has a value on file. Positive means the play typically moved the team closer to scoring more than an average play in that situation would; negative means it cost expected points.
Inputs: Each play's EPA (from CFBD's own model for most FBS/FCS plays, or this project's own trained model for a smaller share of other games) averaged over the QB's dropbacks. The dropback count with an EPA value on file (not every play has one) is always shown alongside the rate, and boards require at least 20 such plays before a QB qualifies -- a thin sample was found live to distort rankings otherwise.
Passing Success Rate
The share of dropbacks that were 'successful' by a standard down-based yardstick, regardless of whether EPA is available for that play.
Inputs: Gained at least 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or the full distance (or a touchdown) on 3rd/4th -- computed from down, distance, yards gained and touchdown, all structured fields.
Rushing Success Rate
The same down-based success standard as passing success rate, applied to a player's carries.
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the ball carrier.
Receiving Success Rate
The same down-based success standard, applied to a player's targets (thrown to him, complete or not).
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the targeted receiver.
3rd Down Splits
How a player performed specifically on 3rd down plays this season -- success rate, touchdown rate, and the underlying counting stats, isolated from every other down.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 3 and this player was involved (passer, rusher, receiver, or a tackle/sack/INT/fumble recovery on defense).
4th Down Splits
The same idea as 3rd Down Splits, isolated to 4th down plays -- the highest-leverage down in football.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 4 and this player was involved.
What is "garbage time"?
A 7-tier rule (bigger lead required as the clock runs down) that flags plays happening in a game that is no longer competitive -- e.g. a 30+ point lead right after halftime, or a 12+ point lead inside the final 3 minutes.
Inputs: Quarter, game clock, and the score of both teams at the time of the play. Garbage-time plays are not thrown out -- they count for 35% of a normal play in every "garbage-time-adjusted" figure, so a player who pads stats once a game is decided shows up as such rather than being invisible.
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED
11/04/2026 10:48
