In short: Tranquillity Tigers high school football (Tranquillity, CA), 2026 season: 5-4 in the West Sierra League. Last game: L 20-26 vs Sierra on October 23, 2026. Next: at Avenal, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The number to watch when Tranquillity meets Avenal is Tranquillity's scoring defense. Tranquillity allowed 10.3 points per game over its first 6 games (5-1), #9 in Section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), the Tigers have allowed 27.3 points per game, a 165% rise, #70 in Section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Tranquillity's last 3 opponents have averaged 28.6 points per game, a #38 offense in Section on the season, against 14.3 points per game, #97 for the first 6. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #79 in Section, well above the first 6 (#105), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Avenal's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Buccaneers have averaged 13.3 points per game over their last 3 games (0-3), #94 in Section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in Section (26.4 points per game on the season, which would rank #65). Against those norms, Avenal scored 50% less than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #90 in Section, a lower level of competition. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. Tranquillity is 5-1 this season when it holds opponents under 17, and 0-3 when it doesn't.
The turnover battle could decide Tranquillity's next game, against Avenal, and the recent returns favor Avenal. Tranquillity forced 2.8 takeaways per game over its first 5 games (4-1), #1 in Section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Tigers have forced 1.5 takeaways per game, a 46% drop, #40 in Section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Tranquillity's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.6 per game, a #77 offense in Section on the season, against 1.8 per game, #91 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.6 per game), Tranquillity forced 7% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #87 in Section, well above the first 5 (#105), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Avenal's ball security has struggled in recent weeks. The Buccaneers have committed 3.0 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (0-4), #109 in Section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better defenses in Section (1.7 per game on the season, which would rank #33). Against those norms, Avenal turned it over 80% more than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #87 in Section, a lower level of competition. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.
NOTES
Tranquillity's ground game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Tranquillity averaged 4.5 yards per carry (1,038 yards on 230 rushes) on the season, #90 in Section, but that number is boosted by a 347-yard game on 51 rushes against Yosemite on 10/2. In all other games, Tranquillity is at 3.9 yards per carry (691 yards on 179 rushes), a figure that would rank #103 in Section. Context matters here: Yosemite's run defense ranks among the weakest in Section (7.9 yards per carry, #95 of 113), so that game says more about the opponent than about the unit itself. Avenal's run defense (8.9 yards per carry, #107 of 113) gives Tranquillity a real chance to look like the season line again.
The biggest worry in Tranquillity's season has been the direction of its offense. The Tigers averaged 7.2 yards per play (1,160 yards on 160 snaps) over their first 4 games (3-1), #43 in Section within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), Tranquillity has averaged 5.1 yards per play (1,019 yards on 198 snaps), a 29% drop, #91 in Section across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.2 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.0 yards per play), Tranquillity gained 26% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. On the season, the Tigers rank #77 in Section in yards per play. Avenal's defense, #110 of 113 (9.5 yards per play), could be the get-right matchup Tranquillity needs.
Tranquillity's offense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Tranquillity averaged 28.0 points per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #41 in Section during those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Tigers have averaged 20.4 points per game, a 27% drop, #75 in Section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Tranquillity's last 5 opponents have averaged 25.7 points per game, a #60 scoring defense in Section on the season, against 29.2 points per game, #77 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (25.7 points per game), Tranquillity scored 21% less than those defenses usually allow. On the season, Tranquillity ranks #63 in Section in scoring. Avenal's defense, #100 of 113 (36.4 points per game), could be the get-right matchup Tranquillity needs.
Something changed for Tranquillity's defense after the first 5 games of the season. The Tigers allowed 5.9 yards per play (951 yards on 162 snaps) over their first 5 games (4-1), #34 in Section during that stretch. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), Tranquillity has allowed 7.4 yards per play (1,126 yards on 152 snaps), a 26% rise, #65 in Section over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Tranquillity's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.0 yards per play, a #52 offense in Section on the season, against 5.8 yards per play, #87 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.0 yards per play), Tranquillity allowed 6% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #87 in Section, well above the first 5 (#105), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Tigers rank #46 in Section in yards per play allowed. Avenal's offense, #98 of 110 (5.0 yards per play), could be the get-right matchup Tranquillity needs.
Tranquillity allowed 6.9 yards per carry (571 yards on 83 rushes) over its first 4 games (3-1), #79 in Section over that timeframe. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 5 games since that slow start (2-3), the Tigers have allowed 5.2 yards per carry (635 yards on 122 rushes), a 24% drop, #33 in Section over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.7 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.8 yards per carry), Tranquillity held those rushing attacks 10% below their usual yards per carry. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #91 in Section. On the season, Tranquillity ranks #52 in Section in run defense. The trend lines up well against Avenal, whose ground game ranks just #95 of 110 (4.4 yards per carry).
TIDBITS (4 found)
• Club Tranquillity has lost 3 straight, and a loss would make it 4 in a row. The last time they lost 4 or more in a row was 2025, a run of 5.
• Club The last time Tranquillity went a game allowing 200+ passing yards was November 8, 2024 against Minarets (L, 14-41). Since then Tranquillity has gone 19 straight games holding the opponent under 200 passing yards, a school-record 19 straight in the 6 seasons on record.
• Player Oscar Contreras has gone 3 straight games forcing a fumble, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Noah Saenz has 3 touchdown catches over his last 3 games (1.0 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch since the 3 he had from August 21, 2026 through September 4, 2026.
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Tranquillity has played one of the softest schedules in the pool so far (#112 of 113), and what is left is one of the softest slates (#103 of 110).
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#112 of 113
avg opponent rating -13.0 over 9 games · 0 vs top-25 CIF Central Section
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#103 of 110
avg opponent rating -19.7 over 1 games · 0 vs top-25
@Mendota L 32-49Riverdale W 21-0Del Oro W 24-0@Farmersv… W 35-6Delhi W 23-0@Yosemite W 21-7@Fresno C… L 7-12Minarets L 31-44Sierra L 20-26@Avenal
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
MILESTONE WATCH
Tranquillity
J. Zamora needs 6 passing yards for 1,000 (averaging 142.0 a game)
Oscar Contreras needs 4 tackles for 75 (averaging 10.1 a game)
A. Lopez needs 50 receiving yards for 500 (averaging 56.2 a game)
Jayden Miller needs 67 rushing yards for 500 (averaging 61.9 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 16 game; last updated Oct 21; roster and numbers checked Oct 6.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 8/9, defense 8/9, sacks/INT 8/9, sacks allowed 7/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 52.6/100 (-9 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 17.1/100 (-90 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 53.6/100 (-9 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 30.9/100 (+36 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
TRA finished 2025 at 2-8. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 16-8 over SIERRA (SIERRA finished 50% that season). Toughest loss: 14-20 to FARMERSVILLE (6-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
TRA HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• TRA holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.800), but most recently lost to Sierra when doing so
• TRA averages 5.0+ yards per carry (.999), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• TRA holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry (.750), but most recently lost to Sierra when doing so
• TRA commits zero giveaways (.750), but most recently lost to Fresno Christian when doing so
• TRA's defense has limited opponents to under 200 pass yds in 7 straight games (09/04/2026-10/23/2026), going 4-3 over that stretch.
• TRA's defense has averaged 2.3 takeaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 18-game average is 1.4 takeaways per game. (+58%)
• TRA's offense has averaged 220.5 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 142.6 pass yards per game. (+55%)
• TRA's offense has averaged 60.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 129.8 rush yards per game. (-53%)
• TRA stays under 8.4 yards per attempt (TRA's own median) (.999)
• TRA is held under 126.5 passing yards (TRA's own median) (.999)
• TRA rushes for 121.0+ yards (TRA's own median) (.999)
• TRA averages 4.7+ yards per carry (TRA's own median) (.999)
• TRA's defense has averaged 13.6 points allowed per game over their last 7 games. Their 30-game average is 26.6 points allowed per game. (-49%)
• TRA's offense has averaged 1.0 giveaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 18-game average is 1.9 giveaways per game. (-47%)
• TRA's offense has averaged 2.3 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 3.8 YPC. (-40%)
TRA — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (30 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-11
.000
4.0
Scores 10-19
1-5
.167
13.8
Scores 20-29
5-2
.714
22.1
Scores 30-39
3-2
.600
34.4
Scores 40+
1-0
1.000
49.0
TRA — OFFENSE — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
2-3
.400
23.0
L2
YPA < 8.0
3-0
1.000
26.3
W3
1 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
0-2
.000
31.5
L2
Pass Yds < 200
5-1
.833
21.8
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
4-1
.800
21.6
L1
Rush Yds < 100
1-2
.333
28.7
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
3-0
1.000
26.7
W3
Rush Yds < 150
2-3
.400
22.8
L2
1 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
4-0
1.000
25.2
W4
YPC < 5.0
1-3
.250
23.2
L2
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
4-2
.667
27.3
L1
YPP < 6.0
1-1
.500
15.0
L1
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
1-1
.500
28.0
W1
YPP < 7.0
4-2
.667
23.0
L2
1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
2-3
.400
25.6
L2
Turnovers < 1
3-1
.750
21.5
L1
Turnovers 2+
0-2
.000
31.5
L2
Turnovers > 2
0-2
.000
31.5
L2
TRA — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-1
.000
7.0
Scores 10-19
--
--
--
Scores 20-29
4-1
.800
21.8
Scores 30-39
1-2
.333
32.7
Scores 40+
--
--
--
TRA — DEFENSE — 2024-26 (30 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
2-10
.167
34.7
L1
YPA < 8.0
2-3
.400
17.4
L2
13 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
0-2
.000
48.0
L2
Pass Yds < 200
4-11
.267
27.1
L3
13 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
2-13
.133
32.7
L3
Rush Yds < 100
2-0
1.000
6.5
W2
13 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
1-10
.091
34.5
L1
Rush Yds < 150
3-3
.500
20.7
L2
13 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
1-12
.077
35.7
L2
YPC < 5.0
3-1
.750
9.8
L1
13 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
3-12
.200
31.8
L2
YPP < 6.0
1-1
.500
13.0
L1
13 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
0-12
.000
38.7
L12
YPP < 7.0
4-1
.800
7.8
L1
13 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
5-6
.455
17.0
L2
Turnovers < 1
0-7
.000
45.1
L7
12 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 2+
4-4
.500
16.8
L1
12 games without this stat on file
Turnovers > 2
2-2
.500
15.0
L1
12 games without this stat on file
TRA — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (30 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
8-0
1.000
3.4
Allows 10-19
1-2
.333
14.0
Allows 20-29
0-5
.000
25.0
Allows 30-39
1-6
.143
34.6
Allows 40+
0-7
.000
51.9
TRA — DEFENSE — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
2-1
.667
19.0
L1
YPA < 8.0
2-3
.400
17.4
L2
1 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
--
--
--
--
Pass Yds < 200
4-4
.500
18.0
L3
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
2-4
.333
21.8
L3
Rush Yds < 100
2-0
1.000
6.5
W2
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
1-2
.333
20.3
L1
Rush Yds < 150
3-2
.600
16.6
L2
1 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
1-3
.250
26.2
L2
YPC < 5.0
3-1
.750
9.8
L1
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
3-3
.500
19.7
L2
YPP < 6.0
1-1
.500
13.0
L1
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
0-3
.000
35.0
L3
YPP < 7.0
4-1
.800
7.8
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
5-3
.625
12.5
L2
Turnovers < 1
0-1
.000
44.0
L1
Turnovers 2+
4-2
.667
14.7
L1
Turnovers > 2
2-1
.667
10.7
L1
TRA — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
5-0
1.000
2.6
Allows 10-19
0-1
.000
12.0
Allows 20-29
0-1
.000
26.0
Allows 30-39
--
--
--
Allows 40+
0-2
.000
46.5
ON THE BRINK
TRANQUILLITY
• TRANQUILLITY has lost 3 straight (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not lost 4 straight since 9/26/25–10/24/25 (2025). It has reached 4 straight 4 times in the last 4 years and has lost a high of 9 straight (2024) in that span.
TRA's defense has averaged 2.3 takeaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 18-game average is 1.4 takeaways per game. (+58%)
TRA's defense has averaged 13.6 points allowed per game over their last 7 games. Their 30-game average is 26.6 points allowed per game. (-49%)
TRA's defense has averaged 124.0 rush yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 17-game average is 191.9 rush yards per game. (-35%)
TRA's defense has averaged 5.2 YPC over their last 7 games. Their 17-game average is 7.9 YPC. (-34%)
TRA's defense has averaged 6.9 YPA over their last 10 games. Their 17-game average is 10.1 YPA. (-31%)
TRA's defense has averaged 238.4 total yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 17-game average is 325.6 total yards per game. (-27%)
TRA's defense has averaged 6.6 YPP over their last 7 games. Their 17-game average is 8.7 YPP. (-23%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Scoring profile against the section: 28.0 scored, 13.8 allowed per game.
POINTS ALLOWED / GAME: TRANQUILLITY VS THE SECTION
TRANQUILLITY ranks #23 of 114 section teams in points allowed per game (13.8) -- a strength worth a look.
TRANQUILLITY: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -19.0 in 2022 to -14.1 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
