In short: Santiago Sharks high school football (Corona, CA), 2026 season: 6-3 in the Big West - Lower League. Last game: L 0-35 vs Roosevelt on October 22, 2026. Next: vs KING, October 29, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The turnover battle could decide Santiago's next game, against KING, and the recent returns favor KING. Santiago committed 0.8 giveaways per game over its first 5 games (5-0), #66 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Sharks have committed 1.8 giveaways per game, a 119% rise, #288 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 4 opponents have been softer, averaging 1.1 per game, a #244 defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 1.3 per game, #202 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.1 per game), Santiago turned it over 57% more than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #112 in CIF-SS, well above the first 5 (#226), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Conversely, KING's defense has been one of CIF-SS's better units in recent weeks. The Wolves have forced 1.8 takeaways per game over their last 4 games (1-3), #79 in CIF-SS during that time. Those games came against some of the better offenses in CIF-SS (1.0 per game on the season, which would rank #104). Against those norms, KING forced 75% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Unless Santiago's ball security rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to KING.
The number to watch when Santiago meets KING is Santiago's scoring defense. Santiago allowed 14.0 points per game over its first 4 games (4-0), #75 in CIF-SS through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Sharks have allowed 23.8 points per game, a 70% rise, #208 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Santiago's last 5 opponents have averaged 27.3 points per game, a #162 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 16.3 points per game, #328 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (27.3 points per game), Santiago held those offenses 13% below what they usually score. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #123 in CIF-SS, well above the first 4 (#245), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, KING's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Wolves have averaged 16.4 points per game over their last 5 games (1-4), #313 in CIF-SS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in CIF-SS (19.6 points per game on the season, which would rank #138). Against those norms, KING scored 16% less than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #99 in CIF-SS, a strong slate. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. Santiago is 4-0 this season when it holds opponents under 19, and 2-3 when it doesn't.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Santiago's season has been the direction of its defense. Santiago forced 3.2 takeaways per game over its first 5 games (5-0), #7 in CIF-SS within that period. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Sharks have forced 0.8 takeaways per game, a 77% drop, #284 in CIF-SS across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Santiago's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.0 per game, a #104 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 1.6 per game, #296 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.0 per game), Santiago forced 25% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #112 in CIF-SS, well above the first 5 (#226), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Santiago ranks #36 in CIF-SS in takeaways. KING's ball security sits in the middle of the pack, #157 in CIF-SS (1.1 per game).
Santiago's offense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Sharks averaged 30.4 points per game over their first 5 games (5-0), #115 in CIF-SS during those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), Santiago has averaged 11.8 points per game, a 61% drop, #347 in CIF-SS during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Santiago's last 4 opponents have averaged 21.7 points per game, a #173 scoring defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 32.8 points per game, #336 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (21.7 points per game), Santiago scored 46% less than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #112 in CIF-SS, well above the first 5 (#226), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Santiago was held to 14 points or fewer 3 times in those games, including 0 against Roosevelt on 10/22. On the season, the Sharks rank #250 in CIF-SS in scoring. KING's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #117 in CIF-SS (18.6 points per game). Santiago is 5-1 this season when it scores 19 or more, and 1-2 when it doesn't.
Something changed for Santiago's ground game after its first 4 games. Santiago averaged 4.8 yards per carry (569 yards on 118 rushes) over its first 4 games (4-0), #248 in CIF-SS during that stretch. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Sharks have averaged 2.9 yards per carry (297 yards on 104 rushes), a 41% drop, #342 in CIF-SS over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Santiago's last 5 opponents have averaged 5.5 yards per carry, a #187 run defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 6.8 yards per carry, #296 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.5 yards per carry), Santiago ran for 48% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #123 in CIF-SS, well above the first 4 (#245), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Santiago ranks #330 in CIF-SS in rushing. It won't get any easier against KING, whose run defense ranks #25 in CIF-SS (3.7 yards per carry).
Santiago's pass defense has allowed more yards per attempt as the season has worn on. The Sharks allowed 6.6 yards per pass attempt (512 yards on 77 attempts) over their first 4 games (4-0), #148 in CIF-SS over that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), Santiago has allowed 8.8 yards per pass attempt (767 yards on 87 attempts), a 33% rise, #253 in CIF-SS over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Santiago's last 5 opponents have averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, a #163 passing attack in CIF-SS on the season, against 5.7 yards per attempt, #312 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.9 yards per attempt), Santiago allowed 11% more per attempt than those passing attacks usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #123 in CIF-SS, well above the first 4 (#245), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Sharks rank #212 in CIF-SS in pass defense. KING's passing game sits in the middle of the pack, #205 in CIF-SS (7.3 yards per attempt).
One of Santiago's shakiest areas lately has been its offense. Santiago averaged 6.7 yards per play (1,389 yards on 208 snaps) over its first 4 games (4-0), #175 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Sharks have averaged 5.0 yards per play (1,049 yards on 209 snaps), a 25% drop, #297 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Santiago's last 5 opponents have averaged 6.6 yards per play, a #201 defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 8.3 yards per play, #328 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.6 yards per play), Santiago gained 24% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #123 in CIF-SS, well above the first 4 (#245), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Santiago ranks #263 in CIF-SS in yards per play. It won't get any easier against KING, whose defense ranks #52 in CIF-SS (5.2 yards per play).
TIDBITS (5 found)
• Club Santiago is 38-2 all time when scoring 40+ points. Santiago's last loss when scoring 40+ points was September 13, 2024 against Ontario Christian (L, 46-54).
• Club Santiago has gone 4 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers (October 1, 2026 through October 22, 2026), going 1-3 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2024 (5 games).
• Player Josiah Sanchez has 40 tackles over his last 5 games (8.0 a game, September 25, 2026 through October 22, 2026) -- his most in a 5-game stretch on record.
• Player Max Eldridge has gone 2 straight games recording two or more tackles for loss, the 3rd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 4 straight games recording two or more tackles for loss, during the 2025 season.
• Player Max Eldridge has gone 8 straight games without making 10 or more tackles. The last time he made 10 tackles was August 21, 2026 against Yucaipa (W, 25-22) — 10 tackles.
MILESTONE WATCH
Santiago
Chad McMaster needs 1 tackle for 50 (averaging 5.4 a game)
Carter Ward needs 27 receiving yards for 500 (averaging 59.1 a game)
Max Eldridge needs 1 sack for 10 (averaging 1.0 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 22 game; last updated Oct 25; roster and numbers checked Sep 10.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
CIF-SS Inland RUNNER-UP (lost to Centennial/Corona 42-7)
Section and state results and Players of the Year: CIF-SS Record Book. League finishes judged from league schedules on file (2022-2025 seasons); earlier league titles are not on file.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 8/9, defense 7/9, sacks allowed 8/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 75.2/100 (+44 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 11.6/100 (-109 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 41.0/100 (+8 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 43.0/100 (+11 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-10-29
vs
KING
3-6
18.2
LAST YEAR
SAN finished 2025 at 5-6. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 52-50 over HILLCREST (HILLCREST finished 60% that season). Toughest loss: 16-21 to TEMECULA VALLEY (5-point margin).
SAN's defense has averaged 269.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 157.9 pass yards per game. (+70%)
SAN's defense has averaged 79.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 196.4 rush yards per game. (-60%)
SAN's defense has averaged 12.7 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 8.0 YPA. (+58%)
SAN's defense has averaged 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 2.1 takeaways per game. (-52%)
SAN's defense has averaged 3.6 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 5.5 YPC. (-33%)
SAN's defense has averaged 19.9 points allowed per game over their last 7 games. Their 30-game average is 27.9 points allowed per game. (-29%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where SANTIAGO (CORONA) sits among 399 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 46.0, Defense Grade 44.5.
PASS YARDS ALLOWED / GAME: SANTIAGO (CORONA) VS THE SECTION
SANTIAGO (CORONA) ranks #297 of 356 section teams in passing yards allowed per game (170.7) -- a weakness worth a look.
SANTIAGO (CORONA): SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 2.3 in 2022 to 8.7 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
