In short: Murrieta Mesa Rams high school football (Murrieta, CA), 2026 season: 3-6 in the Big West - Upper League. Last game: L 7-20 vs Murrieta Valley on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Centennial, October 29, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The turnover battle could decide Murrieta Mesa's next game, against Centennial, and the recent returns favor Centennial. Murrieta Mesa committed 1.4 giveaways per game over its first 5 games (2-3), #215 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Rams have committed 2.5 giveaways per game, a 79% rise, #368 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Murrieta Mesa's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.5 per game, a #149 defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 1.2 per game, #213 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.5 per game), Murrieta Mesa turned it over 67% more than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #52 in CIF-SS. Conversely, Centennial's defense has been one of CIF-SS's better units in recent weeks. The Huskies have forced 2.0 takeaways per game over their last 4 games (4-0), #55 in CIF-SS during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker offenses in CIF-SS (1.6 per game on the season, which would rank #288). Against those norms, Centennial forced 24% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #52 in CIF-SS, a strong slate. Unless Murrieta Mesa's ball security rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Centennial.
The number to watch when Murrieta Mesa meets Centennial is Murrieta Mesa's scoring defense. Murrieta Mesa allowed 18.0 points per game over its first 3 games (2-1), #150 in CIF-SS through those games. In the 6 games since that hot start (1-5), the Rams have allowed 30.0 points per game, a 67% rise, #288 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 28.0 points per game on the season. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #46 in CIF-SS. Conversely, Centennial's offense has been one of CIF-SS's better units in recent weeks. The Huskies have averaged 44.5 points per game over their last 6 games (5-1), #14 in CIF-SS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in CIF-SS (24.1 points per game on the season, which would rank #218). Against those norms, Centennial scored 84% more than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #30 in CIF-SS, a strong slate. Unless Murrieta Mesa's defense rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Centennial.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Murrieta Mesa's season has been the direction of its offense. Murrieta Mesa averaged 25.0 points per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #202 in CIF-SS within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Rams have averaged 13.2 points per game, a 47% drop, #340 in CIF-SS across those games. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 5 opponents have been softer, averaging 27.5 points per game, a #268 scoring defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 19.3 points per game, #135 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (27.5 points per game), Murrieta Mesa scored 52% less than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #46 in CIF-SS. Murrieta Mesa was held to 14 points or fewer 4 times in those games, including 7 against ScorePirate CIF-SS #15 Chaparral on 10/16. On the season, Murrieta Mesa ranks #302 in CIF-SS in scoring. Centennial's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #124 in CIF-SS (18.8 points per game). Murrieta Mesa is 2-2 this season when it scores 19 or more, and 1-4 when it doesn't.
The Rams allowed 3.0 yards per carry (260 yards on 86 rushes) over their first 3 games (2-1), #27 in CIF-SS during those games. Few teams started faster in this department, and few have cooled off as sharply since. In the 6 games since that hot start (1-5), Murrieta Mesa has allowed 4.4 yards per carry (666 yards on 152 rushes), a 45% rise, #77 in CIF-SS during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.4 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.2 yards per carry), Murrieta Mesa held those rushing attacks 16% below their usual yards per carry. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #46 in CIF-SS. On the season, the Rams rank #43 in CIF-SS in run defense. Centennial's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #104 in CIF-SS (6.6 yards per carry).
Murrieta Mesa's ground game from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Murrieta Mesa averaged 5.2 yards per carry (558 yards on 108 rushes) over its first 4 games (2-2), #215 in CIF-SS during that stretch. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Rams have averaged 3.6 yards per carry (564 yards on 157 rushes), a 30% drop, #317 in CIF-SS over that period. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 5 opponents have been softer, averaging 5.3 yards per carry, a #164 run defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 4.7 yards per carry, #93 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.3 yards per carry), Murrieta Mesa ran for 33% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #46 in CIF-SS. On the season, Murrieta Mesa ranks #316 in CIF-SS in rushing. It won't get any easier against Centennial, whose run defense ranks #50 in CIF-SS (4.1 yards per carry).
Something changed for Murrieta Mesa's offense after its first 4 games. The Rams averaged 6.4 yards per play (1,374 yards on 215 snaps) over their first 4 games (2-2), #199 in CIF-SS over that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), Murrieta Mesa has averaged 5.1 yards per play (1,351 yards on 263 snaps), a 20% drop, #293 in CIF-SS over that span. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 5 opponents have been softer, averaging 6.7 yards per play, a #219 defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 6.0 yards per play, #125 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.7 yards per play), Murrieta Mesa gained 24% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #46 in CIF-SS. On the season, the Rams rank #274 in CIF-SS in yards per play. It won't get any easier against Centennial, whose defense ranks #37 in CIF-SS (5.0 yards per play).
Murrieta Mesa's pass defense has been picked apart as the season has progressed. Murrieta Mesa allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt (1,056 yards on 136 attempts) over its first 5 games (2-3), #217 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Rams have allowed 8.8 yards per pass attempt (876 yards on 99 attempts), a 14% rise, #253 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 8.8 yards per attempt on the season. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #52 in CIF-SS. On the season, Murrieta Mesa ranks #239 in CIF-SS in pass defense. It won't get any easier against Centennial, whose passing game ranks #57 in CIF-SS (10.1 yards per attempt).
TIDBITS (12 found)
• Club Murrieta Mesa has lost 2 straight, and a loss would make it 3 in a row. The last time they lost 3 or more in a row was 2026, a run of 3.
• Club Murrieta Mesa is 41-2 all time when scoring 40+ points. Murrieta Mesa's last loss when scoring 40+ points was October 19, 2018 against Murrieta Valley (L, 46-48).
• Club Murrieta Mesa has gone 8 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers (August 28, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 3-5 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2023 (13 games).
• Club Murrieta Mesa has gone 5 straight games being held under 150 rushing yards (September 18, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 1-4 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2023 (6 games).
• Club Murrieta Mesa has gone 5 straight games being held under 5.0 yards per carry (September 18, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 1-4 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2023 (6 games).
• Club Murrieta Mesa has gone 5 straight games being held under 7.0 yards per play (September 18, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 1-4 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2025 (8 games).
• Player Chris Flores has gone 7 straight games making 10 or more tackles, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Jacob Avila has 34 tackles over his last 3 games (11.3 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Noah Jenkins has 38 tackles over his last 4 games (9.5 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• Player Noah Jenkins has gone 2 straight games recording two or more tackles for loss, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 7 straight games recording two or more tackles for loss, during the 2026 season.
• Player Kian Hendricks has gone 13 straight games without intercepting a pass. The last time he intercepted a pass was October 10, 2025 against Great Oak (W, 42-21) — 1 interception.
• Player Jacob Avila has gone 12 straight games without recording a sack. The last time he recorded a sack was October 10, 2025 against Great Oak (W, 42-21) — 2 sacks.
MILESTONE WATCH
Murrieta Mesa
Kian Hendricks needs 7 receiving yards for 500 (averaging 54.8 a game)
Coleman Jones needs 87 passing yards for 1,500 (averaging 157.0 a game)
Noah Jenkins needs 0 sacks for 5 (averaging 0.5 a game)
Chris Flores needs 14 tackles for 125 (averaging 13.9 a game)
Anthony Fayemiwo needs 6 tackles for 50 (averaging 4.9 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 23 game; last updated Oct 26; roster and numbers checked Sep 10.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
1 CIF-SS title · 1 CIF-SS Player of the Year · 3 league titles
YEAR
HONOR
2025
Big West - Lower LEAGUE CHAMPION (5-0 in league)
2024
CIF-SS Division 6 CHAMPION (def. Glendora 17-7)
CIF-SS Defensive Player of the Year (Division 6): ISAIAH CASILLAS
Big West - Lower LEAGUE CHAMPION (5-0 in league)
2022
Big West - Lower LEAGUE CHAMPION (4-1 in league, shared with GREAT OAK)
Section and state results and Players of the Year: CIF-SS Record Book. League finishes judged from league schedules on file (2022-2025 seasons); earlier league titles are not on file.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 54.4/100 (-5 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 51.5/100 (-7 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 63.9/100 (-24 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 89.6/100 (-96 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-10-29
vs
CENTENNIAL
6-3
37.4
LAST YEAR
MM finished 2025 at 7-4. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 42-21 over GREAT OAK (GREAT OAK finished 67% that season). Toughest loss: 17-35 to VISTA MURRIETA (18-point margin).
• MURRIETA MESA has been held under 14 in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• MURRIETA MESA is one loss from falling to 3-7 through 10 games — for the first time since 2019. It has happened in 1 of 13 seasons on file.
MM's defense has averaged 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 35-game average is 2.0 takeaways per game. (-50%)
MM's defense has averaged 29.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 35-game average is 24.1 points allowed per game. (+21%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where MURRIETA MESA sits among 399 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 56.8, Defense Grade 75.4.
TURNOVER MARGIN / GAME: MURRIETA MESA VS THE SECTION
MURRIETA MESA ranks #1 of 332 section teams in turnover margin per game (5.25) -- a strength worth a look.
MURRIETA MESA: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 10.6 in 2022 to 15.2 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
