Nocona Indians football 2026: schedule, results, stats and rankings

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AT A GLANCE

In short: Nocona Indians high school football (Nocona, TX), 2026 season: 6-2. Last game: L 31-56 vs Muenster on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Alvord, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.

ScorePirate Individual Team Report

NOCONA

NOCONA 6-2

2026 SEASON

NOCONA

AT A GLANCE — AS OF 10/26/2026

RECORD	6-2 this season
LAST GAME	L 31-56 vs MUENSTER
NEXT GAME	ALVORD (10/30/2026)
UNIT GRADES	Pass Off 65.3 · Rush Off 56.5 · Pass Def 82.9 · Rush Def 70.8

NUMBERS TO NOTE

#584

SP Strength Index (of 1252)

6-2

2026 record

+21.2

avg scoring margin, pts/gm

UNIT INDEX — GRADE (YDS VS AVG)

TEAM	PASS O	RUSH O	PASS D	RUSH D
NOCONA	65.3 (+18)	56.5 (+3)	82.9 (-55)	70.8 (-45)

HEAD-TO-HEAD GAME LOG

TIMEFRAME

STORYLINES

Next: vs Alvord, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Alvord at Nocona.

The number to watch when Nocona meets Alvord is Nocona's scoring defense. Nocona allowed 8.0 points per game over its first 4 games (4-0), #24 in section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), the Indians have allowed 24.0 points per game, a 200% rise, #453 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Nocona's last 4 opponents have averaged 27.4 points per game, a #702 offense in section on the season, against 22.6 points per game, #859 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (27.4 points per game), Nocona held those offenses 12% below what they usually score. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #803 in section, well above the first 4 (#1075), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Alvord's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Bulldogs have averaged 27.0 points per game over their last 4 games (1-3), #690 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in section (29.1 points per game on the season, which would rank #647). Against those norms, Alvord scored 7% less than those defenses usually allow. Alvord offers Nocona a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.

The battle on the ground could decide Nocona's next game, against Alvord, and the recent returns favor Nocona. Nocona averaged 5.7 yards per carry (597 yards on 105 rushes) over its first 3 games (3-0), #526 in section through those games. In the 5 games since that slow start (3-2), the Indians have averaged 6.4 yards per carry (1,049 yards on 164 rushes), a 12% rise, #410 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Nocona's last 5 opponents have averaged 6.4 yards per carry, a #725 run defense in section on the season, against 7.0 yards per carry, #874 for the first 3. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #855 in section, well above the first 3 (#1088), which makes the improvement more impressive. Conversely, Alvord's run defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Bulldogs have allowed 5.1 yards per carry (477 yards on 94 rushes) over their last 5 games (2-3), #371 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of rushing attacks in section (5.9 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #494). Against those norms, Alvord held those rushing attacks 15% below their usual yards per carry. Something has to give when Nocona's surging ground game meets one of section's better units in Alvord's.

NOTES

The biggest worry in Nocona's season has been the direction of its run defense. Nocona allowed 3.6 yards per carry (319 yards on 88 rushes) over its first 4 games (4-0), #107 in section within that period. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), the Indians have allowed 4.9 yards per carry (563 yards on 115 rushes), a 35% rise, #352 in section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Nocona's last 4 opponents have averaged 6.4 yards per carry, a #410 rushing attack in section on the season, against 5.5 yards per carry, #613 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.4 yards per carry), Nocona held those rushing attacks 23% below their usual yards per carry. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #803 in section, well above the first 4 (#1075), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Nocona ranks #160 in section in run defense. It won't get any easier against Alvord, whose ground game ranks #127 in section (8.1 yards per carry).

Nocona's offense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Indians averaged 40.5 points per game over their first 4 games (4-0), #220 in section during those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), Nocona has averaged 34.0 points per game, a 16% drop, #473 in section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Nocona's last 4 opponents have averaged 32.6 points per game, a #800 scoring defense in section on the season, against 37.7 points per game, #962 for the first 4. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #803 in section, well above the first 4 (#1075), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Indians rank #318 in section in scoring. Alvord's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #578 in section (27.6 points per game). Nocona is 5-1 this season when it scores 28 or more, and 1-1 when it doesn't.

TIDBITS (3 found)

• Club Nocona has gone 8 straight games rushing for 100+ yards (August 28, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 6-2 over that stretch, a school-record 8 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Nocona is 13-1 all time when scoring 40+ points. Nocona's last loss when scoring 40+ points was November 10, 2023 against De Leon (L, 41-70).

• Club Nocona has scored 241 points over its last 6 games (40.2 a game, September 11, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- its 3rd-highest 6-game total on record; the most is 263, from August 24, 2023 through October 20, 2023.

MILESTONE WATCH

Nocona

Logan Gaston needs 37 rushing yards for 500 (averaging 115.8 a game)

NOC — STAT LEADERS

OFFENSE

Brody Langford4 GMS

PASSING LEADER

555PASS YDS

C-ATT31-48

COMP%64.6%

YPA11.6

TD6

INT2

QBR194.6

Logan Gaston4 GMS

RUSHING LEADER

463RUSH YDS

CAR74

YPC6.3

RUSH TD5

REC7

REC YDS156

YPR22.3

REC TD3

Jax Fuller4 GMS

RUSHING LEADER

149RUSH YDS

CAR13

YPC11.5

RUSH TD2

REC14

REC YDS245

YPR17.5

REC TD2

Jesse Gomez4 GMS

RECEIVING LEADER

200REC YDS

REC12

YPR16.7

REC TD3

Ashton Solomon4 GMS

RECEIVING LEADER

73REC YDS

REC4

YPR18.2

REC TD1

DEFENSE

Wyatt Johnson4 GMS

TACKLES LEADER

26TCKL

TFL8

SACKS0

INT0

PD1

FF1

Logan Gaston4 GMS

TACKLES LEADER

23TCKL

TFL2

SACKS0

INT0

PD0

FF0

Manny Resendiz4 GMS

TACKLES LEADER

19TCKL

TFL5

SACKS2

INT0

PD2

FF1

Cruz Garcia4 GMS

TFL LEADER

7TFL

TCKL17

SACKS2

INT0

PD0

FF0

J. Garcia4 GMS

TFL LEADER

6TFL

TCKL6

SACKS2

INT0

PD1

FF1

Ashton Solomon4 GMS

SACKS LEADER

1SACKS

TCKL9

TFL5

INT0

PD0

FF0

Caleb Cavallaro4 GMS

SACKS LEADER

1SACKS

TCKL5

TFL1

INT0

PD0

FF0

Jesse Gomez4 GMS

INTERCEPTIONS LEADER

3INT

TCKL13

TFL1

SACKS0

PD3

FF0

NOC — WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK

Lost to Muenster 31-56 on Oct 23; now 6-2. It ended a 2-game winning streak.
New team leader in receiving yards: Jax Fuller (245) passed Jesse Gomez (200).
Season-high 212 rushing yards in a game: Logan Gaston against Muenster.

From the games on file through Sep 18.

REMAINING SCHEDULE

Most likely finish 7-3 · realistic range 6-4 to 7-3

Remaining schedule: 268th hardest of 1146 in the TX section (average opponent strength 10.1).

Date	Opponent	SP rank	Win chance
10/30	vs Alvord	#432 of 1252	41%
11/06	at Tioga	#283 of 1252	22%

Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).

Printable team sheet Program history Open in Stat Booth Widget for your site

NOC — PLAYER SEASON STATS — 2026

Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Sep 18 game; last updated Sep 25.

Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.

PASSINGMIN ATT
NO	PLAYER	GP	C/ATT	COMP %	YDS	YPA	TD	INT	QBR
	BRODY LANGFORD	4	31/48	64.6%	555	11.6	6	2	194.6
	LOGAN GASTON	4	3/5	60.0%	88	17.6	3	0	405.8
	NATHAN STEFFES	4	7/7	100.0%	84	12.0	1	0	247.9
	TEAM TOTALS	4	41/60	68.3%	727	12.1	10	2	218.4

RUSHINGMIN CAR
NO	PLAYER	GP	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
	LOGAN GASTON	4	74	463	6.3	5
	JAX FULLER	4	13	149	11.5	2
	BRODY LANGFORD	4	26	108	4.2	2
	MANNY RESENDIZ	4	14	107	7.6	1
	J. GARCIA	4	3	19	6.3	0
	IVAN MORALES	2	5	17	3.4	1
	NATHAN STEFFES	4	4	-4	-1.0	0
	COLTEN ANGLIN	4	1	-6	-6.0	0
	JESSE GOMEZ	4	1	-8	-8.0	0
	TEAM TOTALS	4	141	845	6.0	11

RECEIVINGMIN REC
NO	PLAYER	GP	REC	YDS	YPR	TD
	JAX FULLER	4	14	245	17.5	2
	JESSE GOMEZ	4	12	200	16.7	3
	LOGAN GASTON	4	7	156	22.3	3
	ASHTON SOLOMON	4	4	73	18.2	1
	COLTEN ANGLIN	4	2	40	20.0	0
	WYATT JOHNSON	4	1	7	7.0	0
	B. COBB	4	1	6	6.0	1
	TEAM TOTALS	4	41	727	17.7	10

DEFENSEMIN TCKL
NO	PLAYER	GP	TCKL	TFL	SACKS	INT	INT YDS	PD	FF
	WYATT JOHNSON	4	26	8	0	0	0	1	1
	LOGAN GASTON	4	23	2	0	0	0	0	0
	MANNY RESENDIZ	4	19	5	2.5	0	0	2	1
	JAX FULLER	4	18	3	0	0	0	4	1
	CRUZ GARCIA	4	17	7	2.5	0	0	0	0
	JESSE GOMEZ	4	13	1	0	3	15	3	0
	ASHTON SOLOMON	4	9	5	1	0	0	0	0
	COLTEN ANGLIN	4	7	1	0	0	0	6	1
	J. GARCIA	4	6	6	1.5	0	0	1	1
	LINCOLN PHIPPS	3	6	1	0	0	0	0	0
	B. COBB	4	6	0	0	0	0	0	0
	KAEDEN WALLACE	3	6	0	0	0	0	4	0
	K. TEULILO	4	5	2	0	0	0	0	0
	C. CAVALLARO	4	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
	M. ESPINOSA	2	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
	R. DIAZ	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
	T. JONES	2	3	0	0	0	0	2	0
	A. BURROWS	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
	IVAN MORALES	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
	E. GUTIERREZ	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
	KASON SMITH	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
	NATHAN STEFFES	4	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
	TEAM TOTALS	4	184	42	8.5	3	15	25	5

PROGRAM SNAPSHOT: NOC

PROGRAM RECORD

SEASON	RECORD	PF	PA	PPG
2022	7-3	305	221	30.5
2023	7-2	351	241	39.0
2024	1-9	66	434	6.6
2025	2-8	169	426	16.9
2026	6-2	298	128	37.2
2022-26	23-24			25.3

NOC — 2026 SEASON SCHEDULE

DATE	OPPONENT	SITE	RESULT	SCORE	WIN%
08/28	VALLEY VIEW	vs	W	22-0
09/04	ARCHER CITY	at	W	35-6
09/11	S & S CONSOLIDATED	vs	W	56-14
09/18	PETROLIA	vs	W	49-12
09/25	ERA	at	L	14-26
10/09	CHICO	at	W	49-7
10/16	OLNEY	vs	W	42-7
10/23	MUENSTER	at	L	31-56
10/30	ALVORD	vs	PROJ	26-30	41.4%
11/06	TIOGA	at	PROJ	22-37	22.4%
SEASON TO DATE	6-2			2 REMAINING

SEASON OUTLOOK

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)

	RECORD TO DATE	MOST LIKELY FINAL	PROJECTED RECORD
Overall	6-2 so far	6-4 (47%)	6.6-3.4
League	2-1 so far	2-1 (100%)	2.0-1.0

NOC — 2026 OVERALL AVERAGES

SPLIT	GP	PPG	OPP PPG	YPG	OPP YPG	PLAYS/G	OPP PLAYS/G
OVERALL	8	37.2	16.0	374.0	230.2	49.6	52.0
HOME	4	42.2	8.2	347.8	168.3	47.8	53.0
ROAD	4	32.2	23.8	400.2	292.0	51.5	51.0

PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.

NOC — 2026 TEAM GAME LOG

DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT	PASS YDS	RUSH YDS	TOTAL YDS	PASS ALW	RUSH ALW	TOTAL ALW	SACKS ALW	SACKS	DEF INT	TO FORCED	TO MAR
8/28	vs. Valley View	W 22-0	121	164	285	26	65	91	0	2	1	3	+2
9/4	@ Archer City	W 35-6	240	208	448	66	60	126	0	2	2	4	+3
9/11	vs. S & S Consolidated	W 56-14	163	225	388	60	194	254	0	1	0	0	-2
9/18	vs. Petrolia	W 49-12	203	248	451	--	--	--	--	3	0	3	+3
9/25	@ Era	L 14-26	88	158	246	139	185	324	--	--	--	0	-4
10/9	@ Chico	W 49-7	170	349	519	--	--	--	--	--	--	3	+2
10/16	vs. Olney	W 42-7	111	156	267	67	93	160	--	--	--	3	+3
10/23	@ Muenster	L 31-56	250	138	388	141	285	426	--	--	--	1	+1
AVERAGES			168.2	205.8	374.0	83.2	147.0	230.2	0.0	2.1	0.8	2.1	+8 (season)

Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 6/8, sacks/INT 4/8, sacks allowed 3/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.

UNIT INDEX

Pass Offense: grade 65.3/100 (+18 yds/gm vs average)

Rush Offense: grade 56.5/100 (+3 yds/gm vs average)

Pass Defense: grade 82.9/100 (-55 yds/gm vs average)

Rush Defense: grade 70.8/100 (-45 yds/gm vs average)

Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.

OPPONENT TRACKER

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)

DATE	SITE	OPPONENT	THEIR RECORD	THEIR PPG
2026-10-30	vs	ALVORD	5-3	32.1
2026-11-06	at	TIOGA	5-3	41.0

LAST YEAR

NOC finished 2025 at 2-8. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 18-0 over TRENTON (TRENTON finished 20% that season). Toughest loss: 12-20 to S & S CONSOLIDATED (8-point margin).

LAST SEASON: NOC — 2025 GAME LOG

DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT	RECORD	PF	PA	TOT YDS	YDS ALLOWED
2025-08-29	LINDSAY	L	0-1	0	69	N/A	N/A
2025-09-05	ELECTRA	L	0-2	24	46	N/A	N/A
2025-09-12	S & S CONSOLIDATED	L	0-3	12	20	N/A	N/A
2025-09-19	ARCHER CITY	W	1-3	43	24	N/A	N/A
2025-09-26	ALVORD	L	1-4	6	62	N/A	N/A
2025-10-03	WOLFE CITY	L	1-5	23	64	N/A	N/A
2025-10-17	TRENTON	W	2-5	18	0	N/A	N/A
2025-10-24	TOM BEAN	L	2-6	0	51	125	464
2025-10-31	WHITEWRIGHT	L	2-7	30	40	N/A	N/A
2025-11-07	TIOGA	L	2-8	13	50	N/A	N/A
TOTALS	10 GMS	2-8	2-8	169	426	125 (1)	464 (1)

"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.

TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)

NOC HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...

• NOC rushes for 150+ yards (.857), and has won 2 straight when doing so

• NOC holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.800)

• NOC holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry (.800)

• NOC holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.800)

• NOC's offense has averaged 40.7 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 19.0 points scored per game. (+114%)

• NOC's offense has averaged 0.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 1.4 giveaways per game. (-76%)

• NOC holds its opponents under 5.3 yards per attempt (NOC's own median) (.999)

• NOC holds its opponents under 75.5 passing yards (NOC's own median) (.999)

• NOC holds its opponents under 4.6 yards per play (NOC's own median) (.999)

• NOC rushes for 161.0+ yards (NOC's own median) (.999)

• NOC's defense has averaged 18.3 points allowed per game over their last 7 games. Their 28-game average is 35.3 points allowed per game. (-48%)

• NOC's defense has forced 1+ turnover in 3 straight games (10/09/2026-10/23/2026), going 2-1 over that stretch.

• NOC is 5-1 (.833) when it wins the turnover battle

• NOC holds its opponents under 139.0 rushing yards (NOC's own median) (.750)

• NOC holds its opponents under 4.2 yards per carry (NOC's own median) (.750)

MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)

NOC -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS

(top 2 of 2 scored; vs 951 cached team(s))

#	SIDE	CONDITION	REC	WIN%	PPG	STRK	SCORE
1	OFF	Rush Yds 100+	6-2	.750	37.2	L1	0.570
2	OFF	Turnovers < 3	6-2	.750	35.5	L1	0.430

WIN %: TWO-CONDITION COMBINATIONS (4 found, min 4 Gms each)

(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)

--- NOC ---

CONDITION	REC	WIN%	PPG	STRK
NOC rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards	4-1	.800	36.6	W2
NOC averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards	4-1	.800	40.6	W1
NOC holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt and under 5.0 yards per carry	4-1	.800	10.6	W1
NOC averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards	3-1	.750	42.0	W1

WIN % -- TAB-SEPARATED

Team	Condition	Record	Win%	PPG
NOC	Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200	4-1	.800	36.6
NOC	YPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+	4-1	.800	40.6
NOC	YPA < 8.0 & YPC < 5.0	4-1	.800	10.6
NOC	YPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+	3-1	.750	42.0

NOC — OFFENSE — 2024-26 (28 Gms)

SPLIT	REC	WIN%	PPG	STRK
YPA 8.0+	5-1	.833	40.3	L1
YPA < 8.0	1-3	.250	14.0	W1	18 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+	2-1	.667	38.3	L1
Pass Yds < 200	4-3	.571	26.1	W2	18 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+	6-2	.750	37.2	L1
Rush Yds < 100	0-2	.000	0.0	L2	18 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+	6-1	.857	38.1	W2
Rush Yds < 150	0-3	.000	10.3	L3	18 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+	3-1	.750	42.0	W1
YPC < 5.0	3-3	.500	21.7	L1	18 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+	4-2	.667	39.0	L1
YPP < 6.0	2-2	.500	16.0	W2	18 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+	4-0	1.000	47.2	W4
YPP < 7.0	2-4	.333	18.2	L1	18 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+	4-3	.571	25.1	W1
Turnovers < 1	2-1	.667	40.7	L1	18 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 2+	1-3	.250	17.5	L1	18 games without this stat on file
Turnovers > 2	0-2	.000	7.0	L2	18 games without this stat on file

NOC — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (28 Gms)

SPLIT	REC	WIN%	PPG
Scores <10	0-11	.000	1.6
Scores 10-19	1-4	.200	14.2
Scores 20-29	1-2	.333	23.0
Scores 30-39	1-2	.333	32.0
Scores 40+	6-0	1.000	46.5

NOC — OFFENSE — 2026 (8 Gms)

SPLIT	REC	WIN%	PPG	STRK
YPA 8.0+	5-1	.833	40.3	L1
YPA < 8.0	1-1	.500	28.0	W1
Pass Yds 200+	2-1	.667	38.3	L1
Pass Yds < 200	4-1	.800	36.6	W2
Rush Yds 100+	6-2	.750	37.2	L1
Rush Yds < 100	--	--	--	--
Rush Yds 150+	6-1	.857	38.1	W2
Rush Yds < 150	0-1	.000	31.0	L1
YPC 5.0+	3-1	.750	42.0	W1
YPC < 5.0	3-1	.750	32.5	L1
YPP 6.0+	4-2	.667	39.0	L1
YPP < 6.0	2-0	1.000	32.0	W2
YPP 7.0+	4-0	1.000	47.2	W4
YPP < 7.0	2-2	.500	27.2	L1
Turnovers 1+	4-1	.800	35.2	W1
Turnovers < 1	2-1	.667	40.7	L1
Turnovers 2+	1-1	.500	35.0	L1
Turnovers > 2	0-1	.000	14.0	L1

NOC — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (8 Gms)

SPLIT	REC	WIN%	PPG
Scores <10	--	--	--
Scores 10-19	0-1	.000	14.0
Scores 20-29	1-0	1.000	22.0
Scores 30-39	1-1	.500	33.0
Scores 40+	4-0	1.000	49.0

NOC — DEFENSE — 2024-26 (28 Gms)

SPLIT	REC	WIN%	PPG	STRK
YPA 8.0+	0-3	.000	52.0	L3
YPA < 8.0	4-1	.800	10.6	W1	20 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+	0-1	.000	51.0	L1
Pass Yds < 200	4-3	.571	22.6	L1	20 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+	1-3	.250	36.2	L2
Rush Yds < 100	3-1	.750	16.0	W3	20 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+	1-3	.250	36.2	L2
Rush Yds < 150	3-1	.750	16.0	W3	20 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+	0-3	.000	52.0	L3
YPC < 5.0	4-1	.800	10.6	W1	20 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+	0-3	.000	52.0	L3
YPP < 6.0	4-1	.800	10.6	W1	20 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+	0-3	.000	52.0	L3
YPP < 7.0	4-1	.800	10.6	W1	20 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+	5-2	.714	19.6	L1
Turnovers < 1	1-1	.500	20.0	L1	19 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 2+	5-0	1.000	6.4	W5	19 games without this stat on file
Turnovers > 2	5-0	1.000	6.4	W5	19 games without this stat on file

NOC — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (28 Gms)

SPLIT	REC	WIN%	PPG
Allows <10	5-0	1.000	4.0
Allows 10-19	2-0	1.000	13.0
Allows 20-29	1-4	.200	24.0
Allows 30-39	1-0	1.000	31.0
Allows 40+	0-15	.000	52.7

NOC — DEFENSE — 2026 (8 Gms)

SPLIT	REC	WIN%	PPG	STRK
YPA 8.0+	0-1	.000	56.0	L1
YPA < 8.0	4-1	.800	10.6	W1	2 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+	--	--	--	--
Pass Yds < 200	4-2	.667	18.2	L1	2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+	1-2	.333	32.0	L2
Rush Yds < 100	3-0	1.000	4.3	W3	2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+	1-2	.333	32.0	L2
Rush Yds < 150	3-0	1.000	4.3	W3	2 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+	0-1	.000	56.0	L1
YPC < 5.0	4-1	.800	10.6	W1	2 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+	0-1	.000	56.0	L1
YPP < 6.0	4-1	.800	10.6	W1	2 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+	0-1	.000	56.0	L1
YPP < 7.0	4-1	.800	10.6	W1	2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+	5-1	.833	14.7	L1
Turnovers < 1	1-1	.500	20.0	L1
Turnovers 2+	5-0	1.000	6.4	W5
Turnovers > 2	5-0	1.000	6.4	W5

NOC — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (8 Gms)

SPLIT	REC	WIN%	PPG
Allows <10	4-0	1.000	5.0
Allows 10-19	2-0	1.000	13.0
Allows 20-29	0-1	.000	26.0
Allows 30-39	--	--	--
Allows 40+	0-1	.000	56.0

ON THE BRINK

NOCONA

• NOCONA has scored 30+ in 3 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

TAB-SEPARATED (paste into a spreadsheet)

Team	Side	Split	Games	Record	Win%	PPG	Strk
NOC	OFFENSE	YPA 8.0+	6	5-1	.833	40.3	L1
NOC	OFFENSE	YPA < 8.0	4	1-3	.250	14.0	W1
NOC	OFFENSE	Pass Yds 200+	3	2-1	.667	38.3	L1
NOC	OFFENSE	Pass Yds < 200	7	4-3	.571	26.1	W2
NOC	OFFENSE	Rush Yds 100+	8	6-2	.750	37.2	L1
NOC	OFFENSE	Rush Yds < 100	2	0-2	.000	0.0	L2
NOC	OFFENSE	Rush Yds 150+	7	6-1	.857	38.1	W2
NOC	OFFENSE	Rush Yds < 150	3	0-3	.000	10.3	L3
NOC	OFFENSE	YPC 5.0+	4	3-1	.750	42.0	W1
NOC	OFFENSE	YPC < 5.0	6	3-3	.500	21.7	L1
NOC	OFFENSE	YPP 6.0+	6	4-2	.667	39.0	L1
NOC	OFFENSE	YPP < 6.0	4	2-2	.500	16.0	W2
NOC	OFFENSE	YPP 7.0+	4	4-0	1.000	47.2	W4
NOC	OFFENSE	YPP < 7.0	6	2-4	.333	18.2	L1
NOC	OFFENSE	Turnovers 1+	7	4-3	.571	25.1	W1
NOC	OFFENSE	Turnovers < 1	3	2-1	.667	40.7	L1
NOC	OFFENSE	Turnovers 2+	4	1-3	.250	17.5	L1
NOC	OFFENSE	Turnovers > 2	2	0-2	.000	7.0	L2
NOC	OFFENSE	Scores <10	11	0-11	.000	1.6	L11
NOC	OFFENSE	Scores 10-19	5	1-4	.200	14.2	L2
NOC	OFFENSE	Scores 20-29	3	1-2	.333	23.0	W1
NOC	OFFENSE	Scores 30-39	3	1-2	.333	32.0	L1
NOC	OFFENSE	Scores 40+	6	6-0	1.000	46.5	W6
NOC	DEFENSE	YPA 8.0+	3	0-3	.000	52.0	L3
NOC	DEFENSE	YPA < 8.0	5	4-1	.800	10.6	W1
NOC	DEFENSE	Pass Yds 200+	1	0-1	.000	51.0	L1
NOC	DEFENSE	Pass Yds < 200	7	4-3	.571	22.6	L1
NOC	DEFENSE	Rush Yds 100+	4	1-3	.250	36.2	L2
NOC	DEFENSE	Rush Yds < 100	4	3-1	.750	16.0	W3
NOC	DEFENSE	Rush Yds 150+	4	1-3	.250	36.2	L2
NOC	DEFENSE	Rush Yds < 150	4	3-1	.750	16.0	W3
NOC	DEFENSE	YPC 5.0+	3	0-3	.000	52.0	L3
NOC	DEFENSE	YPC < 5.0	5	4-1	.800	10.6	W1
NOC	DEFENSE	YPP 6.0+	3	0-3	.000	52.0	L3
NOC	DEFENSE	YPP < 6.0	5	4-1	.800	10.6	W1
NOC	DEFENSE	YPP 7.0+	3	0-3	.000	52.0	L3
NOC	DEFENSE	YPP < 7.0	5	4-1	.800	10.6	W1
NOC	DEFENSE	Turnovers 1+	7	5-2	.714	19.6	L1
NOC	DEFENSE	Turnovers < 1	2	1-1	.500	20.0	L1
NOC	DEFENSE	Turnovers 2+	5	5-0	1.000	6.4	W5
NOC	DEFENSE	Turnovers > 2	5	5-0	1.000	6.4	W5
NOC	DEFENSE	Allows <10	5	5-0	1.000	4.0	W5
NOC	DEFENSE	Allows 10-19	2	2-0	1.000	13.0	W2
NOC	DEFENSE	Allows 20-29	5	1-4	.200	24.0	L1
NOC	DEFENSE	Allows 30-39	1	1-0	1.000	31.0	W1
NOC	DEFENSE	Allows 40+	15	0-15	.000	52.7	L15

STREAKS: NOC (combined OFFENSE+DEFENSE)

SIDE	SPLIT	STREAK	DATES	RECORD
OFFENSE	Rush Yds 100+	8 games	08/28/2026 - 10/23/2026	6-2
DEFENSE	Turnovers 1+	3 games	10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026	2-1

STREAKS — ALL TEAMS

Team	Side	Split	Streak	Dates	Record
NOC	OFFENSE	Rush Yds 100+	8 games	08/28/2026 - 10/23/2026	6-2
NOC	DEFENSE	Turnovers 1+	3 games	10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026	2-1

NOTABLE TRENDS (7 of 7 found, team |deviation| >= 20%, matchup |deviation| >= 20%)

NOC OFFENSE

NOC's offense has averaged 40.7 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 19.0 points scored per game. (+114%)

NOC's offense has averaged 0.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 1.4 giveaways per game. (-76%)

NOC's offense has averaged 214.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 173.5 rush yards per game. (+24%)

NOC's offense has averaged 391.3 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 319.0 total yards per game. (+23%)

NOC's offense has averaged 177.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 145.5 pass yards per game. (+22%)

NOC DEFENSE

NOC's defense has averaged 18.3 points allowed per game over their last 7 games. Their 28-game average is 35.3 points allowed per game. (-48%)

NOC's defense has averaged 94.6 pass yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 8-game average is 119.5 pass yards per game. (-21%)

(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)

APPENDIX

Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.

Explanatory Notes

Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK

Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).

Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown

Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.

Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored

Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.

Full Data Exports

Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)

Team	Side	Type	Stat	Opponent	Window/Meetings	Value	BaselineGames	BaselineAvg	Deviation
NOC	DEFENSE	team	Pass Yards		last 7	94.6	8	119.5	-20.8%
NOC	OFFENSE	team	Pass Yards		last 3	177.0	10	145.5	+21.6%
NOC	DEFENSE	team	Points		last 7	18.3	28	35.3	-48.2%
NOC	OFFENSE	team	Points		last 3	40.7	28	19.0	+113.6%
NOC	OFFENSE	team	Rush Yards		last 3	214.3	10	173.5	+23.5%
NOC	OFFENSE	team	Total Yards		last 3	391.3	10	319.0	+22.7%
NOC	OFFENSE	team	Turnovers		last 3	0.3	10	1.4	-76.2%

Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED 10/26/2026 10:28