In short: Macarthur Brahmas high school football (San Antonio, TX), 2026 season: 4-4. Last game: L 10-63 vs Medina Valley on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Southside, October 29, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 4-4 this season |
| LAST GAME | L 10-63 vs MEDINA VALLEY |
| NEXT GAME | SOUTHSIDE (10/29/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 33.7 · Rush Off 41.1 · Pass Def 50.1 · Rush Def 10.3 |
| ENROLLMENT | 2,001 STUDENTS (2023-24) |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MACARTHUR | 33.7 (-48) | 41.1 (-29) | 50.1 (-4) | 10.3 (+102) |
Next: vs Southside, Thu 29 Oct. Matchup report: Southside at Macarthur.
The number to watch when Macarthur meets Southside is Macarthur's scoring defense. Macarthur allowed 13.4 points per game over its first 5 games (4-1), #75 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), the Brahmas have allowed 56.3 points per game, a 320% rise, #1158 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Macarthur's last 3 opponents have averaged 39.4 points per game, a #255 offense in section on the season, against 18.0 points per game, #1009 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (39.4 points per game), Macarthur allowed 43% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #632 in section, well above the first 5 (#1062), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Southside's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Cardinals have averaged 35.3 points per game over their last 3 games (3-0), #433 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in section (29.9 points per game on the season, which would rank #688). Against those norms, Southside scored 18% more than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #959 in section, a lower level of competition. Southside offers Macarthur a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Macarthur is 4-1 this season when it holds opponents under 24, and 0-3 when it doesn't.
The turnover battle could decide Macarthur's next game, against Southside, and the recent returns favor Southside. Macarthur forced 1.5 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #406 in section through those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), the Brahmas have forced 0.5 takeaways per game, a 67% drop, #926 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Macarthur's last 4 opponents have averaged 0.9 per game, a #293 offense in section on the season, against 1.5 per game, #789 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (0.9 per game), Macarthur forced 42% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #762 in section, well above the first 4 (#1051), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Conversely, Southside's ball security has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Cardinals have committed 0.5 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (3-1), #155 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in section (1.2 per game on the season, which would rank #645). Against those norms, Southside turned it over 57% less than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #771 in section, a lower level of competition. Unless Macarthur's defense rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Southside.
The biggest worry in Macarthur's season has been the direction of its defense. Macarthur allowed 5.6 yards per play (1,092 yards on 196 snaps) over its first 4 games (3-1), #276 in section within that period. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), the Brahmas have allowed 9.9 yards per play (1,679 yards on 169 snaps), a 78% rise, #1053 in section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Macarthur's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.9 yards per play, a #269 offense in section on the season, against 6.0 yards per play, #718 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.9 yards per play), Macarthur allowed 25% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #762 in section, well above the first 4 (#1051), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Macarthur ranks #849 in section in yards per play allowed. It won't get any easier against Southside, whose offense ranks #31 in section (10.5 yards per play).
Macarthur's run defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Brahmas allowed 6.3 yards per carry (848 yards on 134 rushes) over their first 4 games (3-1), #747 in section during those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), Macarthur has allowed 8.6 yards per carry (989 yards on 115 rushes), a 36% rise, #1015 in section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Macarthur's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.2 yards per carry, a #250 rushing attack in section on the season, against 6.2 yards per carry, #448 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.2 yards per carry), Macarthur allowed 19% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #762 in section, well above the first 4 (#1051), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Brahmas rank #959 in section in run defense. Southside's ground game, #854 of 1054 (4.5 yards per carry), could be the get-right matchup Macarthur needs.
Macarthur averaged 20.7 points per game over its first 3 games (2-1), #859 in section during that stretch. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 5 games since that slow start (2-3), the Brahmas have averaged 28.2 points per game, a 36% rise, #654 in section over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Macarthur's last 5 opponents have averaged 28.8 points per game, a #636 scoring defense in section on the season, against 37.0 points per game, #936 for the first 3. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #802 in section, well above the first 3 (#1079), which makes the improvement more impressive. On the season, Macarthur ranks #765 in section in scoring. Southside's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #712 in section (30.4 points per game). Macarthur is 2-1 this season when it scores 31 or more, and 2-3 when it doesn't.
Something changed for Macarthur's ground game after the first 5 games of the season. The Brahmas averaged 5.6 yards per carry (1,008 yards on 179 rushes) over their first 5 games (4-1), #575 in section over that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), Macarthur has averaged 4.5 yards per carry (476 yards on 105 rushes), a 19% drop, #692 in section over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Macarthur's last 3 opponents have averaged 5.8 yards per carry, a #560 run defense in section on the season, against 6.7 yards per carry, #827 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.8 yards per carry), Macarthur ran for 22% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #632 in section, well above the first 5 (#1062), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Brahmas rank #687 in section in rushing. Southside's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #673 in section (6.2 yards per carry).
Macarthur's offense has moved the ball at will as the season has progressed. Macarthur averaged 5.6 yards per play (844 yards on 150 snaps) over its first 3 games (2-1), #708 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (2-3), the Brahmas have averaged 6.4 yards per play (1,471 yards on 230 snaps), a 14% rise, #607 in section in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.2 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.2 yards per play), Macarthur gained 11% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #802 in section, well above the first 3 (#1079), which makes the improvement more impressive. On the season, Macarthur ranks #697 in section in yards per play. Southside's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #769 in section (7.3 yards per play).
• Club Macarthur has lost 3 straight, and a loss would make it 4 in a row. The last time they lost 4 or more in a row was 2024, a run of 19.
• Club Macarthur has gone 8 straight games being held under 200 passing yards (August 27, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 4-4 over that stretch, a school-record 8 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Macarthur has gone 8 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers (August 27, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 4-4 over that stretch, a school-record 8 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Macarthur has scored 113 points over its last 4 games (28.2 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- its 3rd-highest 4-game total on record; the most is 125, from November 4, 2022 through September 8, 2023.
• Player Carson Lacott has 27 tackles over his last 3 games (9.0 a game, September 3, 2026 through September 25, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Jase Hernandez has 25 tackles over his last 3 games (8.3 a game, September 3, 2026 through September 25, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Mike Thomas has gone 3 straight games making 10 or more tackles, the longest such streak of his career.
From the games on file through Sep 25.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Sep 25 game; last updated Sep 30; roster and numbers checked Oct 27.
| PASSING | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| 8 | MAX CAVAZOS | 4 | 28/51 | 54.9% | 337 | 6.6 | 4 | 4 | 120.6 |
| RUSHING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| 6 | MATTHEW RODRIGUEZ | 4 | 56 | 386 | 6.9 | 4 |
| 8 | MAX CAVAZOS | 4 | 34 | 177 | 5.2 | 1 |
| 5 | OMARIE WILLIAMS | 4 | 31 | 131 | 4.2 | 1 |
| 4 | KELLEN POLANSKY | 4 | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| 1 | TALAE MATHIS | 4 | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 1 |
| 35 | DEVON LEWIS | 1 | 4 | 13 | 3.2 | 1 |
| 16 | JOSH JOHNSEN | 1 | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| 7 | TURNER SCHWARTZ | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 4 | 142 | 797 | 5.6 | 8 | |
| RECEIVING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | REC | YDS | YPR | TD |
| 4 | KELLEN POLANSKY | 4 | 11 | 209 | 19.0 | 4 |
| 15 | TALLY-KING MIRANDA | 3 | 4 | 52 | 13.0 | 0 |
| 1 | TALAE MATHIS | 4 | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 |
| 7 | TURNER SCHWARTZ | 4 | 3 | 49 | 16.3 | 0 |
| 11 | ANDY MENDOZA | 2 | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| 28 | TRUEMAN CORNWELL | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| 6 | MATTHEW RODRIGUEZ | 4 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 4 | 30 | 399 | 13.3 | 4 | |
| DEFENSE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | TCKL | TFL | SACKS | INT | INT YDS | PD | FF |
| 81 | MIKE THOMAS | 4 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | CARSON LACOTT | 4 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 | JOAQUIN HERNANDEZ | 4 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | LINDON SCHAEFER | 3 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | TANNER BEAN | 4 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 1 |
| 26 | JOSHUA BRAGDON | 4 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 | MICHAEL DELGRECO | 4 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 2 | AYDEN CARMACK | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 | MIGUEL CARACHEO | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | JAIDEN NAVARRO | 4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 80 | BEN CATHEY | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 77 | JAVON THOMPSON | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | GABE CASTILLO | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 44 | NOAH VAELLO | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | TALAE MATHIS | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | DIEGO FLORES | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | DAMIAN VALDEZ | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 51 | JACOBRYAN LOPEZ | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | AFTON ROYAL | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 55 | RAFAEL AGUILA | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | ADRIAN JOSEPH | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 78 | JACOBY QUINN | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 88 | JAYDEN SNOW | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | KELLEN POLANSKY | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | ANDY MENDOZA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 87 | GAGE WEAVER | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 74 | JULIAN RODRIGUEZ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | TURNER SCHWARTZ | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | TALLY-KING MIRANDA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 4 | 342 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 1 | |
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2022 | 2-8 | 191 | 496 | 19.1 |
| 2023 | 1-9 | 128 | 455 | 12.8 |
| 2024 | 1-9 | 110 | 519 | 11.0 |
| 2025 | 0-10 | 96 | 351 | 9.6 |
| 2026 | 4-4 | 203 | 236 | 25.4 |
| 2022-26 | 8-40 | 15.2 |
1 state final loss
| YEAR | HONOR |
| 1998 | UIL STATE 5A D2 RUNNER-UP (lost to Midland Lee 54-0) |
State championship games and title-game MVPs: UIL Fall Almanac 2025-26. League finishes: no league schedule on file yet, so none is claimed.
| # | Team | Dist | Ovr | Rank | Proj. | Dist. pts | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MEDINA VALLEY | 5-0 | 8-0 | 20 / 205 | 1 (7.0-0.0) | 320-41 | 10/30 vs JAY |
| 2 | SOUTHSIDE | 4-1 | 4-3 | 75 / 787 | 2 (5.4-1.6) | 136-131 | 10/29 vs MACARTHUR |
| 3 | NIXON | 3-2 | 4-4 | 68 / 689 | 3 (4.6-2.4) | 175-145 | 10/30 vs WINN |
| 4 | WINN | 3-2 | 3-5 | 96 / 958 | 4 (3.5-3.5) | 124-162 | 10/30 vs NIXON |
| 5 | MACARTHUR | 2-3 | 4-4 | 93 / 948 | 5 (2.9-4.1) | 141-189 | 10/29 vs SOUTHSIDE |
| 6 | JAY | 2-3 | 2-6 | 108 / 1030 | 6 (2.4-4.6) | 104-116 | 10/30 vs MEDINA VALLEY |
| 7 | MARTIN | 1-4 | 2-6 | 105 / 1012 | 7 (1.8-5.2) | 130-236 | 10/30 vs SOUTH SAN ANTONIO |
| 8 | SOUTH SAN ANTONIO | 0-5 | 1-5-1 | 114 / 1108 | 8 (0.3-6.7) | 68-178 | 10/30 vs MARTIN |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/27 | BURBANK | at | W | 32-10 | |
| 09/03 | HOLMES | vs | W | 27-21 | |
| 09/10 | LEE | vs | L | 3-16 | |
| 09/25 | WINN | vs | W | 28-14 | |
| 10/02 | SOUTH SAN ANTONIO | at | W | 31-6 | |
| 10/09 | MARTIN | at | L | 52-55 | |
| 10/16 | NIXON | vs | L | 20-51 | |
| 10/23 | MEDINA VALLEY | at | L | 10-63 | |
| 10/29 | SOUTHSIDE | vs | PROJ | 21-29 | 34.9% |
| 11/05 | JAY | at | PROJ | 25-25 | 49.3% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 4-4 | 2 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 4-4 so far | 4-6 (48%) | 4.6-5.4 |
| League | 2-3 so far | 2-3 (100%) | 2.0-3.0 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 8 | 25.4 | 29.5 | 289.4 | 395.9 | 47.5 | 52.1 |
| HOME | 4 | 19.5 | 25.5 | 281.0 | 341.8 | 46.0 | 53.2 |
| ROAD | 4 | 31.2 | 33.5 | 297.8 | 468.0 | 49.0 | 50.7 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 8/27 | @ Burbank | W 32-10 | 79 | 235 | 314 | 97 | 241 | 338 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 |
| 9/3 | vs. Holmes | W 27-21 | 94 | 237 | 331 | 21 | 282 | 303 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 |
| 9/10 | vs. LEE | L 3-16 | 101 | 98 | 199 | 47 | 142 | 189 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| 9/25 | vs. Winn | W 28-14 | 121 | 227 | 348 | 79 | 183 | 262 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 10/2 | @ South San Antonio | W 31-6 | 61 | 211 | 272 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 1 | -1 |
| 10/9 | @ Martin | L 52-55 | 151 | 241 | 392 | 187 | 377 | 564 | -- | -- | -- | 1 | 0 |
| 10/16 | vs. Nixon | L 20-51 | 157 | 89 | 246 | 468 | 145 | 613 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -2 |
| 10/23 | @ Medina Valley | L 10-63 | 67 | 146 | 213 | 35 | 467 | 502 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -1 |
| AVERAGES | 103.9 | 185.5 | 289.4 | 133.4 | 262.4 | 395.9 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | -7 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 7/8, sacks/INT 4/8, sacks allowed 4/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 33.7/100 (-48 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 41.1/100 (-29 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 50.1/100 (-4 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 10.3/100 (+102 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-10-29 | vs | SOUTHSIDE | 4-3 | 23.7 |
| 2026-11-05 | at | JAY | 2-6 | 16.4 |
LAST YEAR
MAC finished 2025 at 0-10. Missed playoffs. Toughest loss: 7-12 to LEE (5-point margin).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | RECORD | PF | PA | TOT YDS | YDS ALLOWED |
| 2025-08-29 | LEE | L | 0-1 | 7 | 12 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-06 | HOLMES | L | 0-2 | 13 | 20 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-13 | VETERANS MEMORIAL | L | 0-3 | 0 | 33 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-19 | NEW BRAUNFELS | L | 0-4 | 7 | 35 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-25 | WAGNER | L | 0-5 | 7 | 21 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-09 | VICTORIA EAST | L | 0-6 | 7 | 43 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-16 | BOERNE-CHAMPION | L | 0-7 | 6 | 35 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-24 | PIEPER | L | 0-8 | 0 | 49 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-30 | SMITHSON VALLEY | L | 0-9 | 7 | 56 | 122 | N/A |
| 2025-11-07 | SEGUIN | L | 0-10 | 42 | 47 | N/A | N/A |
| TOTALS | 10 GMS | 0-10 | 0-10 | 96 | 351 | 122 (1) | N/A |
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
• MAC rushes for 150+ yards (.800), but most recently lost to Martin when doing so
• MAC averages 5.0+ yards per carry (.800), but most recently lost to Martin when doing so
• MAC holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.750)
• MAC holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.750)
• MAC's offense has averaged 28.2 points scored per game over their last 5 games. Their 28-game average is 14.6 points scored per game. (+93%)
• MAC's defense has averaged 19.7 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 10.7 YPA. (+83%)
• MAC's offense has failed to reach 200 pass yds in 8 straight games (08/27/2026-10/23/2026), going 4-4 over that stretch.
• MAC holds its opponents under 5.2 yards per attempt (MAC's own median) (.999)
• MAC's defense has averaged 230.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 133.4 pass yards per game. (+72%)
• MAC's offense has committed 1+ turnover in 7 straight games (09/03/2026-10/23/2026), going 3-4 over that stretch.
• MAC's defense has averaged 0.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.0 takeaways per game. (-67%)
• MAC averages 5.5+ yards per carry (MAC's own median) (.800)
• MAC averages 6.2+ yards per play (MAC's own median) (.800)
• MAC rushes for 146.0+ yards (MAC's own median) (.667)
• MAC's defense has averaged 56.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 39.5 points allowed per game. (+43%)
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
MAC -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 3 of 3 scored; vs 763 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | Rush Yds 100+ | 4-4 | .500 | 24.2 | L2 | 0.770 |
| 2 | DEF | Turnovers < 3 | 4-4 | .500 | 29.5 | L3 | 0.765 |
| 3 | OFF | Pass Yds < 200 | 4-6 | .400 | 21.0 | L3 | 0.151 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- MAC ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAC rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 4-3 | .571 | 26.7 | L2 |
| MAC averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards | 4-1 | .800 | 34.0 | L1 |
| MAC averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards | 4-1 | .800 | 34.0 | L1 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| MAC | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 4-3 | .571 | 26.7 |
| MAC | YPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 4-1 | .800 | 34.0 |
| MAC | YPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 4-1 | .800 | 34.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 3-2 | .600 | 32.6 | L2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 13.3 | L2 | 20 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 4-6 | .400 | 21.0 | L3 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 4-4 | .500 | 24.2 | L2 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 0-3 | .000 | 7.7 | L3 | 17 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 4-1 | .800 | 34.0 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 0-6 | .000 | 7.8 | L6 | 17 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 4-1 | .800 | 34.0 | L1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-4 | .000 | 10.0 | L4 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 4-2 | .667 | 31.7 | L2 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-3 | .000 | 6.7 | L3 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 35.7 | L1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-4 | .333 | 17.2 | L2 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-4 | .429 | 24.4 | L3 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 32.0 | W1 | 20 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-2 | .500 | 20.2 | L1 | 20 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 15.0 | L1 | 20 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-15 | .000 | 3.7 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-3 | .000 | 12.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 3-2 | .600 | 25.8 |
| Scores 30-39 | 2-1 | .667 | 31.7 |
| Scores 40+ | 0-2 | .000 | 47.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 3-2 | .600 | 32.6 | L2 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 13.3 | L2 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 4-4 | .500 | 25.4 | L3 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 4-2 | .667 | 30.0 | L2 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 0-2 | .000 | 11.5 | L2 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 4-1 | .800 | 34.0 | L1 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 0-3 | .000 | 11.0 | L3 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 4-1 | .800 | 34.0 | L1 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-3 | .000 | 11.0 | L3 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 4-2 | .667 | 31.7 | L2 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 6.5 | L2 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 35.7 | L1 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-3 | .400 | 19.2 | L2 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-4 | .429 | 24.4 | L3 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 32.0 | W1 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-2 | .500 | 20.2 | L1 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 15.0 | L1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-1 | .000 | 3.0 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-1 | .000 | 10.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 2-1 | .667 | 25.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 31.5 |
| Scores 40+ | 0-1 | .000 | 52.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-3 | .000 | 56.3 | L3 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 3-1 | .750 | 15.2 | W1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-1 | .000 | 51.0 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-3 | .500 | 29.8 | L2 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 3-4 | .429 | 32.9 | L3 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 3-2 | .600 | 32.6 | L2 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 0-2 | .000 | 33.5 | L2 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 3-2 | .600 | 32.6 | L2 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 33.5 | L2 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 2-3 | .400 | 40.0 | L3 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-1 | .500 | 15.0 | W1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-3 | .000 | 56.3 | L3 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-1 | .750 | 15.2 | W1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-2 | .667 | 20.3 | L1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 0-2 | .000 | 57.0 | L2 | 20 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-1 | .500 | 18.5 | L1 | 20 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 20 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 4.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | 2-2 | .500 | 13.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-2 | .333 | 20.7 |
| Allows 30-39 | 0-4 | .000 | 34.8 |
| Allows 40+ | 0-15 | .000 | 56.3 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-3 | .000 | 56.3 | L3 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 3-1 | .750 | 15.2 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-1 | .000 | 51.0 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-3 | .500 | 29.8 | L2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 3-4 | .429 | 32.9 | L3 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 3-2 | .600 | 32.6 | L2 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 0-2 | .000 | 33.5 | L2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 3-2 | .600 | 32.6 | L2 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 33.5 | L2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 2-3 | .400 | 40.0 | L3 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-1 | .500 | 15.0 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-3 | .000 | 56.3 | L3 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-1 | .750 | 15.2 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-2 | .667 | 20.3 | L1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 0-2 | .000 | 57.0 | L2 | |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-1 | .500 | 18.5 | L1 | |
| Turnovers > 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 6.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | 2-1 | .667 | 13.3 |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 21.0 |
| Allows 30-39 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 40+ | 0-3 | .000 | 56.3 |
MACARTHUR
• MACARTHUR has allowed 400+ total yards in 3 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). Earlier games have no box score on file, so the run may be longer. It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• MACARTHUR has allowed 30+ in 3 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not allowed 30+ in 4 straight since 10/9/25–11/7/25 (2025). It has reached 4 straight 3 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 9 straight (2024) in that span.
• MACARTHUR has lost by 20+ in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not lost by 20+ in 3 straight since 10/9/25–10/30/25 (2025). It has reached 3 straight 3 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 9 straight (2024) in that span.
• MACARTHUR has lost 3 straight (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not lost 4 straight since 9/7/24–11/7/25 (2025). It has reached 4 straight 2 times in the last 4 years and has lost a high of 19 straight (2025) in that span.
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| MAC | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 32.6 | L2 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 13.3 | L2 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 10 | 4-6 | .400 | 21.0 | L3 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 8 | 4-4 | .500 | 24.2 | L2 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 7.7 | L3 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 34.0 | L1 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 6 | 0-6 | .000 | 7.8 | L6 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 34.0 | L1 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 10.0 | L4 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 31.7 | L2 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 6.7 | L3 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 35.7 | L1 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 17.2 | L2 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 24.4 | L3 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 32.0 | W1 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 20.2 | L1 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 15.0 | L1 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 15 | 0-15 | .000 | 3.7 | L15 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 12.0 | L3 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 25.8 | L1 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 31.7 | W2 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 47.0 | L2 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 56.3 | L3 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 15.2 | W1 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 51.0 | L1 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 29.8 | L2 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 32.9 | L3 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 32.6 | L2 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 33.5 | L2 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 32.6 | L2 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 33.5 | L2 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 40.0 | L3 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 15.0 | W1 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 56.3 | L3 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 15.2 | W1 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 20.3 | L1 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 57.0 | L2 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 18.5 | L1 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 4.0 | W2 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 13.0 | W1 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 20.7 | W1 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 34.8 | L4 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 15 | 0-15 | .000 | 56.3 | L15 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 8 games | 08/27/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 4-4 |
| OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 7 games | 09/03/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 3-4 |
| DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 0-3 |
| DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 0-3 |
| DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 0-3 |
| DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 0-3 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
| MAC | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 8 games | 08/27/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 4-4 |
| MAC | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 7 games | 09/03/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 3-4 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 0-3 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 0-3 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 0-3 |
| MAC | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 0-3 |
MAC OFFENSE
MAC's offense has averaged 28.2 points scored per game over their last 5 games. Their 28-game average is 14.6 points scored per game. (+93%)
MAC's offense has averaged 125.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 90.9 pass yards per game. (+38%)
MAC's offense has averaged 1.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.9 giveaways per game. (-29%)
MAC DEFENSE
MAC's defense has averaged 19.7 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 10.7 YPA. (+83%)
MAC's defense has averaged 230.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 133.4 pass yards per game. (+72%)
MAC's defense has averaged 0.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.0 takeaways per game. (-67%)
MAC's defense has averaged 56.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 39.5 points allowed per game. (+43%)
MAC's defense has averaged 559.7 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 395.9 total yards per game. (+41%)
MAC's defense has averaged 10.0 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 7.5 YPP. (+34%)
MAC's defense has averaged 329.7 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 262.4 rush yards per game. (+26%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| MAC | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 230.0 | 7 | 133.4 | +72.4% | |
| MAC | OFFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 125.0 | 10 | 90.9 | +37.5% | |
| MAC | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 56.3 | 28 | 39.5 | +42.6% | |
| MAC | OFFENSE | team | Points | last 5 | 28.2 | 28 | 14.6 | +93.1% | |
| MAC | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 329.7 | 7 | 262.4 | +25.6% | |
| MAC | DEFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 559.7 | 7 | 395.9 | +41.4% | |
| MAC | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 0.3 | 8 | 1.0 | -66.7% | |
| MAC | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 1.3 | 8 | 1.9 | -28.9% | |
| MAC | DEFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 19.7 | 7 | 10.7 | +83.3% | |
| MAC | DEFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 10.0 | 7 | 7.5 | +34.2% |
