Next: at Victoria East, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Freeman at Victoria East.

The number to watch when Freeman meets Victoria East is Freeman's scoring defense. Freeman allowed 21.0 points per game over its first 5 games (2-3), #297 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), the Golden Eagles have allowed 44.3 points per game, a 111% rise, #1014 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Freeman's last 3 opponents have averaged 51.5 points per game, a #38 offense in section on the season, against 28.7 points per game, #647 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (51.5 points per game), Freeman held those offenses 14% below what they usually score. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #164 in section, well above the first 5 (#571), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Conversely, Victoria East's offense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Titans have averaged 42.0 points per game over their last 3 games (2-1), #278 in section during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker scoring defenses in section (41.0 points per game on the season, which would rank #1059). Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #801 in section, a lower level of competition. Freeman's defense has held up better than the raw numbers suggest, which makes this a closer matchup than the recent results imply. Freeman is 2-3 this season when it holds opponents under 36, and 0-3 when it doesn't.

The battle on the ground could decide Freeman's next game, against Victoria East, and the recent returns favor Victoria East. Freeman allowed 4.6 yards per carry (721 yards on 157 rushes) over its first 4 games (1-3), #256 in section through those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), the Golden Eagles have allowed 8.2 yards per carry (845 yards on 103 rushes), a 79% rise, #978 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Freeman's last 4 opponents have averaged 9.2 yards per carry, a #52 rushing attack in section on the season, against 6.4 yards per carry, #413 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (9.2 yards per carry), Freeman held those rushing attacks 11% below their usual yards per carry. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Conversely, Victoria East's ground game has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Titans have averaged 6.9 yards per carry (809 yards on 117 rushes) over their last 4 games (3-1), #313 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the weaker run defenses in section (9.2 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #1136). Against those norms, Victoria East ran for 25% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #893 in section, a lower level of competition. Freeman's run defense has held up better than the raw numbers suggest, which makes this a closer matchup than the recent results imply.

Freeman's ground game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Freeman averaged 4.1 yards per carry (1,067 yards on 260 rushes) on the season, #904 in section, but that number is boosted by a 297-yard game on 23 rushes against South Houston on 9/11. In all other games, Freeman is at 3.2 yards per carry (770 yards on 237 rushes), a figure that would rank #990 in section. Context matters here: South Houston's run defense ranks among the weakest in section (10.7 yards per carry, #1195 of 1232), so that game says more about the opponent than about the unit itself. Victoria East's run defense (8.9 yards per carry, #1122 of 1232) gives Freeman a real chance to look like the season line again.

The biggest worry in Freeman's season has been the direction of its offense. The Golden Eagles averaged 30.4 points per game over their first 5 games (2-3), #565 in section within that period. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), Freeman has averaged 3.3 points per game, an 89% drop, #1192 in section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Freeman's last 3 opponents have averaged 9.1 points per game, a #21 scoring defense in section on the season, against 32.1 points per game, #783 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (9.1 points per game), Freeman scored 63% less than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #164 in section, well above the first 5 (#571), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Freeman was held to 14 points or fewer 3 times in those games, including 0 against Friendswood on 10/16. On the season, the Golden Eagles rank #929 in section in scoring. Victoria East's defense, #1074 of 1235 (41.9 points per game), could be the get-right matchup Freeman needs. Freeman is 2-0 this season when it scores 42 or more, and 0-6 when it doesn't.

Freeman's offense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Freeman averaged 6.5 yards per play (1,569 yards on 241 snaps) over its first 5 games (2-3), #579 in section during those games. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), the Golden Eagles have averaged 3.7 yards per play (678 yards on 182 snaps), a 43% drop, #880 in section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Freeman's last 3 opponents have averaged 4.3 yards per play, a #45 defense in section on the season, against 7.7 yards per play, #868 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.3 yards per play), Freeman gained 13% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #164 in section, well above the first 5 (#571), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Freeman ranks #860 in section in yards per play. Victoria East's defense, #1123 of 1232 (9.6 yards per play), could be the get-right matchup Freeman needs.

Something changed for Freeman's defense after its first 4 games. The Golden Eagles allowed 6.2 yards per play (1,435 yards on 233 snaps) over their first 4 games (1-3), #431 in section during that stretch. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), Freeman has allowed 8.1 yards per play (1,219 yards on 150 snaps), a 32% rise, #857 in section over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Freeman's last 4 opponents have averaged 9.3 yards per play, a #89 offense in section on the season, against 6.9 yards per play, #493 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (9.3 yards per play), Freeman held those offenses 12% below their usual yards per snap. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, the Golden Eagles rank #659 in section in yards per play allowed. Victoria East's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #600 in section (6.5 yards per play).

Freeman averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt (534 yards on 80 attempts) over its first 4 games (1-3), #652 in section over that timeframe. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 4 games since that slow start (1-3), the Golden Eagles have averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt (646 yards on 83 attempts), a 17% rise, #513 in section over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Freeman's last 4 opponents have averaged 6.9 yards per attempt, a #326 pass defense in section on the season, against 8.3 yards per attempt, #677 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.9 yards per attempt), Freeman threw for 12% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. On the season, Freeman ranks #632 in section in passing. The trend lines up well against Victoria East, whose pass defense ranks just #1115 of 1232 (11.4 yards per attempt).