Next: vs MARS, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: MARS at Central Valley.

The number to watch when Central Valley meets MARS is Central Valley's scoring defense. Central Valley allowed 22.6 points per game over its first 5 games (2-3), #278 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (0-4), the Warriors have allowed 49.0 points per game, a 117% rise, #548 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Central Valley's last 4 opponents have averaged 37.5 points per game, a #63 offense in section on the season, against 27.9 points per game, #173 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (37.5 points per game), Central Valley allowed 31% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #66 in section, well above the first 5 (#164), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, MARS's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Fightin Planets have averaged 18.2 points per game over their last 4 games (1-3), #350 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in section (24.7 points per game on the season, which would rank #322). Against those norms, MARS scored 26% less than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #104 in section, a strong slate. MARS offers Central Valley a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Central Valley is 2-1 this season when it holds opponents under 20, and 0-6 when it doesn't.

The turnover battle could decide Central Valley's next game, against MARS, and the recent returns favor MARS. Central Valley forced 2.2 takeaways per game over its first 5 games (2-3), #61 in section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (0-4), the Warriors have forced 0.2 takeaways per game, an 89% drop, #460 in section through that stretch. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 4 opponents have been softer, averaging 1.4 per game, a #313 offense in section on the season, against 1.2 per game, #240 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.4 per game), Central Valley forced 82% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #66 in section, well above the first 5 (#164), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, MARS's ball security has struggled in recent weeks. The Fightin Planets have committed 2.0 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (1-3), #390 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better defenses in section (1.5 per game on the season, which would rank #181). Against those norms, MARS turned it over 30% more than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #104 in section, a strong slate. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.

The biggest shift in Central Valley's season has come in its offense. Central Valley averaged 17.2 points per game over its first 6 games (2-4), #389 in section within that period. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), the Warriors have averaged 28.0 points per game, a 63% rise, #203 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Central Valley's last 3 opponents have averaged 24.1 points per game, a #314 scoring defense in section on the season, against 19.9 points per game, #220 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (24.1 points per game), Central Valley scored 16% more than those defenses usually allow. On the season, Central Valley ranks #331 in section in scoring. The trend lines up well against MARS, whose defense ranks just #454 of 563 (31.9 points per game). Central Valley is 1-2 this season when it scores 32 or more, and 1-5 when it doesn't.

The Warriors averaged 5.1 yards per play (1,422 yards on 280 snaps) over their first 5 games (2-3), #310 in section during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (0-4), Central Valley has averaged 6.5 yards per play (1,211 yards on 187 snaps), a 28% rise, #177 in section during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.0 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.0 yards per play), Central Valley gained 8% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #66 in section, well above the first 5 (#164), which makes the improvement more impressive. On the season, the Warriors rank #268 in section in yards per play. The trend lines up well against MARS, whose defense ranks just #441 of 558 (7.7 yards per play).

Central Valley's ground game has come a long way since the season's early weeks. Central Valley averaged 3.6 yards per carry (535 yards on 149 rushes) over its first 4 games (2-2), #345 in section during that stretch. In the 5 games since that slow start (0-5), the Warriors have averaged 4.4 yards per carry (647 yards on 148 rushes), a 22% rise, #294 in section over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Central Valley's last 5 opponents have averaged 4.3 yards per carry, a #120 run defense in section on the season, against 5.0 yards per carry, #207 for the first 4. On the season, Central Valley ranks #346 in section in rushing. The trend lines up well against MARS, whose run defense ranks just #470 of 557 (7.4 yards per carry).

Something changed for Central Valley's run defense after its first 4 games. The Warriors allowed 6.7 yards per carry (667 yards on 99 rushes) over their first 4 games (2-2), #402 in section over that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (0-5), Central Valley has allowed 8.0 yards per carry (827 yards on 104 rushes), an 18% rise, #457 in section over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Central Valley's last 5 opponents have averaged 8.2 yards per carry, a #40 rushing attack in section on the season, against 6.0 yards per carry, #174 for the first 4. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #101 in section. On the season, the Warriors rank #469 in section in run defense. MARS's ground game, #365 of 421 (3.7 yards per carry), could be the get-right matchup Central Valley needs.

Central Valley's passing game has been stretching the field as the season has progressed. Central Valley averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt (720 yards on 91 attempts) over its first 5 games (2-3), #160 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (0-4), the Warriors have averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt (731 yards on 79 attempts), a 17% rise, #104 in section in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 8.3 yards per attempt on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.3 yards per attempt), Central Valley threw for 12% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #66 in section, well above the first 5 (#164), which makes the improvement more impressive. On the season, Central Valley ranks #126 in section in passing. MARS's pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #338 in section (8.2 yards per attempt).