In short: Tenaha (5-5) at Overton (10-1), October 2, 2026 (high school football). Final: Overton 70, Tenaha 28. The full report has the projection, unit grades, storylines, pregame notes, Big Game Watch, series history, season stats and both rosters.

TENAHA

SCOREPIRATE MATCHUP REPORT ·

TENAHA (AWAY) AT OVERTON (HOME)

TENAHA 10.7  —  54.6 OVERTON

OVERTON 98.5% FAVORITES

OVERTON

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UNIT INDEX — GRADE (YDS VS AVG)

TEAM	PASS O	RUSH O	PASS D	RUSH D
TENAHA	63.7 (+15.6)	66.2 (+26.2)	65.9 (-25.7)	15.7 (+80.5)
OVERTON	98.3 (+196.3)	69.5 (+35.4)	32.2 (+21.4)	89.3 (-95.3)

TENAHA AT OVERTON

ADVANCED STATS PREVIEW · 2026 SEASON

TIMEFRAME This season (2026)Last 2 years (2025–26)Last 4 years (2023–26)Last 6 years (2021–26)Last 8 years (2019–26)Last 10 years (2017–26)RANKS VS SECTION LEAGUE · 102 teams DOWNLOAD CARD AS PDFDOWNLOAD AS JPEG

WIN PROB

1.5%

PROJ PTS

10.7

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TENA OFF VS OVER DEF

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WIN PROB

98.5%

PROJ PTS

54.6

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Averages, ranks and records above cover the selected window; SP STRENGTH INDEX and the UNIT/RUSH/PASS INDEX rows are full-library ratings and do not change with it.

Rank chips: 1 = best in the pool; blue strong, red weak. Yardage and efficiency use games with a full box score on file; points and turnovers use every played game. Unit Index = opponent-adjusted 0-100 league percentile.

PROJECTION COMPONENTS

COMPONENT	POINTS	WEIGHT	CONTRIBUTION
Common Opponents	-21.61	33%	-7.06
Strength	-21.98	20%	-4.38
Own Margin	-24.86	16%	-4.04
Efficiency	-4.42	16%	-0.69
Head To Head	-26.69	16%	-4.15
Garbage Time Margin	--	0%	+0.00
EPA Efficiency	--	0%	+0.00

What if he’s out?

Mark players out to re-project this game. Each value is how much of the margin that player is worth, from this season's data (his share of his team's win shares). Estimates — your selections change only your view.

PROJECTED TEAM YARDAGE

CATEGORY	TEAM	PROJECTED
Passing	TENAHA	210.9
Passing	OVERTON	228.1
Rushing	TENAHA	87.7
Rushing	OVERTON	316.8
Total	TENAHA	298.6
Total	OVERTON	545.0

PROJECTED BOX SCORE

TENAHA — PASSING
PLAYER	C/ATT	COMP %	YDS	YPA	TD	INT	QBR
CLAYTON CREECH	10.9/18.5	58.8%	196.8	10.6	2.2	0.6	180.2
JACOBE CALLOWAY	0.8/2.0	40.6%	14.1	7.2	0.2	0.1	123.1
TOTALS	11.7/20.5	57.1%	210.9	10.3	2.3	0.7	174.8

TENAHA — RUSHING
PLAYER	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
KORI MILES	15.9	52.2	3.3	0.3
MAKIAS NORRIS	9.3	21.9	2.3	0.4
JACOBE CALLOWAY	3.8	13.6	3.6	0.1
TOTALS	29.0	87.7	3.0	0.7

TENAHA — RECEIVING
PLAYER	REC	YDS	YPC	TD
JACOBE CALLOWAY	4.5	80.3	18.0	0.9
DARRIEN MENEFEE	5.7	79.9	14.1	0.9
TY'DARRYN LANDON	3.2	50.7	15.6	0.5
TOTALS	13.4	210.9	15.8	2.2

OVERTON — PASSING
PLAYER	C/ATT	COMP %	YDS	YPA	TD	INT	QBR
BROOKS DAVIS	18.2/30.1	60.4%	228.1	7.6	3.1	0.9	152.5

OVERTON — RUSHING
PLAYER	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
GABRIEL MILLER	15.9	173.4	10.9	2.0
JUSTIN WEIR	6.8	94.7	14.0	1.8
JACKSON FURLOW	3.7	48.7	13.3	1.0
TOTALS	26.3	316.8	12.1	4.7

OVERTON — RECEIVING
PLAYER	REC	YDS	YPC	TD
JACOB OSBURN	5.2	92.8	18.0	1.1
CARMELO BRYANT	3.3	58.9	18.0	1.1
JACKSON FURLOW	3.3	48.3	14.7	0.6
JORGE ESPINOZA	2.4	28.1	11.9	0.2
TOTALS	14.1	228.1	16.2	3.0

PREGAME NOTES

The first meeting between these two hinged on a single stat: Tenaha's rushing. The Tigers averaged 4.0 yards per carry (119 yards on 30 rushes) against Overton on 10/2, well below their 7.4 mark in every other game this season. Tenaha lost the game 70-28. A rushing number closer to Tenaha's norm would go a long way toward flipping the result this time.

Something changed for Overton's passing game after the first 7 games of the season. Overton averaged 8.4 yards per pass attempt (2,103 yards on 251 attempts) over its first 7 games (6-1), #445 in section during that period. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (4-0), the Mustangs have averaged 14.5 yards per pass attempt (1,157 yards on 80 attempts), a 73% rise, #47 in section during that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Overton's last 4 opponents have averaged 10.3 yards per attempt, a #1039 pass defense in section on the season, against 8.5 yards per attempt, #720 for the first 7. Measured against those opponents' norms (10.3 yards per attempt), Overton threw for 40% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #898 in section. On the season, Overton ranks #231 in section in passing. Tenaha's pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #564 in section (7.9 yards per attempt).

The Mustangs forced 3.0 takeaways per game over their first 4 games (3-1), #25 in section over that period. Few teams started faster in this department, and few have cooled off as sharply since. In the 7 games since that hot start (7-0), Overton has forced 1.3 takeaways per game, a 57% drop, #488 in section over that timeframe. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 7 opponents have been softer, averaging 1.6 per game, a #955 offense in section on the season, against 1.5 per game, #889 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.6 per game), Overton forced 22% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 7 opponents average a rating that would rank #900 in section, well below the first 4 (#637), which makes the dip harder to excuse. On the season, the Mustangs rank #145 in section in takeaways. Tenaha's ball security, #1072 of 1234 (1.9 per game), could be the get-right matchup Overton needs.

Tenaha's run defense has allowed fewer yards per carry as the season has worn on. Tenaha allowed 11.9 yards per carry (1,138 yards on 96 rushes) over its first 4 games (2-2), #1201 in section over that span. In the 6 games since that slow start (3-3), the Tigers have allowed 5.1 yards per carry (925 yards on 181 rushes), a 57% drop, #380 in section in that timeframe. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Tenaha's last 6 opponents have averaged 5.0 yards per carry, a #753 rushing attack in section on the season, against 7.8 yards per carry, #183 for the first 4. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #753 in section. On the season, Tenaha ranks #975 in section in run defense. That form gets a real test against Overton, whose ground game ranks #216 in section (7.5 yards per carry).

One of Overton's most reliable areas lately has been its defense. Overton allowed 26.4 points per game over its first 7 games (6-1), #529 in section in that window. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (4-0), the Mustangs have allowed 12.2 points per game, a 54% drop, #136 in section during that time. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Overton's last 4 opponents have averaged 23.6 points per game, a #833 offense in section on the season, against 29.2 points per game, #618 for the first 7. Measured against those opponents' norms (23.6 points per game), Overton held those offenses 48% below what they usually score. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #898 in section. Only Cushing broke through in that span, putting up 21 on 11/5. On the season, Overton ranks #284 in section in scoring defense. Tenaha's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #663 in section (28.2 points per game). Overton is 9-0 this season when it holds opponents under 29, and 1-1 when it doesn't.

Tenaha's defense has allowed fewer points as the weeks have passed. The Tigers allowed 45.0 points per game over their first 6 games (3-3), #1143 in section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), Tenaha has allowed 23.5 points per game, a 48% drop, #434 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Tenaha's last 4 opponents have averaged 27.3 points per game, a #697 offense in section on the season, against 34.6 points per game, #422 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (27.3 points per game), Tenaha held those offenses 14% below what they usually score. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #811 in section. On the season, the Tigers rank #911 in section in scoring defense. That form gets a real test against Overton, whose offense ranks #31 in section (52.1 points per game). Tenaha is 5-3 this season when it holds opponents under 53, and 0-2 when it doesn't.

BIG GAME WATCH

Players positioned for an outsized game because of this opponent: a player's share of his team's win shares, weighted by the tendencies of the team across from him. Only matchup-driven picks are shown.

Tenaha

Clayton CreechQB1,555 passing yards and 17 TDOverton allows 11.4 yards per pass attempt, #890 of 964 in section; 1,555 passing yards and 17 TD should travel well

Jacobe CallowayWR31 catches for 639 yardsOverton allows 11.4 yards per pass attempt, #890 of 964 in section; 31 catches for 639 yards should find space

Overton

Kash HollemanLB115 tackles and 14 TFLTenaha gives the ball away 1.9 times a game, #846 of 964 in section; he is positioned to take one

MILESTONE WATCH

Tenaha

• D'kayden Moore needs 1 tackle for 50 (averaging 5.4 a game)
• Kori Miles needs 59 rushing yards for 1,000 (averaging 104.6 a game)
• Makias Norris needs 3 tackles for 50 (averaging 4.7 a game)
• Keren Cato needs 5 tackles for 75 (averaging 7.0 a game)
• Quentin Goodson needs 6 tackles for 75 (averaging 6.9 a game)
• Ciro Sandival needs 7 tackles for 75 (averaging 7.6 a game)

Overton

• Brayden Spiecher needs 3 tackles for 50 (averaging 5.2 a game)
• Bryden Gaytan needs 7 tackles for 125 (averaging 11.8 a game)
• Gabriel Miller needs 1 rushing touchdown for 10 (averaging 1.5 a game)
• Carmelo Bryant needs 1 receiving touchdown for 15 (averaging 1.4 a game)
• Jacob Osburn needs 115 receiving yards for 1,500 (averaging 125.9 a game)
• Kash Holleman needs 10 tackles for 125 (averaging 10.5 a game)

STORYLINES

The turnover battle has the potential to swing this matchup, with the recent returns favoring Overton. Overton committed 2.4 giveaways per game over its first 5 games (4-1), #1121 in section in that timeframe. In the 6 games since that slow start (6-0), the Mustangs have committed 0.5 giveaways per game, a 79% drop, #133 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Overton's last 6 opponents have averaged 1.4 per game, a #439 defense in section on the season, against 1.7 per game, #299 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.4 per game), Overton turned it over 65% less than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #909 in section, well below the first 5 (#676), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Tenaha's defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Tigers have forced 1.5 takeaways per game over their last 6 games (3-3), #349 in section during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker offenses in section (1.5 per game on the season, which would rank #837). Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #753 in section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Overton's surging ball security meets one of section's better units in Tenaha's.

If there's one number to watch in this matchup, it's Overton's rushing. Overton averaged 5.7 yards per carry (827 yards on 144 rushes) over its first 5 games (4-1), #558 in section through those games. In the 6 games since that slow start (6-0), the Mustangs have averaged 9.3 yards per carry (1,347 yards on 145 rushes), a 62% rise, #74 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Overton's last 6 opponents have averaged 7.0 yards per carry, a #884 run defense in section on the season, against 6.1 yards per carry, #625 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.0 yards per carry), Overton ran for 33% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #909 in section, well below the first 5 (#676), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Tenaha's run defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Tigers have allowed 5.1 yards per carry (925 yards on 181 rushes) over their last 6 games (3-3), #380 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the weaker rushing attacks in section (5.0 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #753). Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #753 in section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Overton's surging ground game meets one of section's better units in Tenaha's.

The Overton offense of late is barely reminiscent of the one that began the season. Overton averaged 7.5 yards per play (3,428 yards on 460 snaps) over its first 7 games (6-1), #385 in section within that period. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (4-0), the Mustangs have averaged 12.5 yards per play (2,006 yards on 160 snaps), a 68% rise, #20 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Overton's last 4 opponents have averaged 8.3 yards per play, a #985 defense in section on the season, against 7.1 yards per play, #701 for the first 7. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.3 yards per play), Overton gained 52% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #898 in section. Conversely, Tenaha's defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Tigers have allowed 5.6 yards per play (931 yards on 166 snaps) over their last 4 games (2-2), #331 in section during those games. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (6.3 yards per play on the season, which would rank #658). Against those norms, Tenaha held those offenses 11% below their usual yards per snap. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #811 in section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Overton's surging offense meets one of section's better units in Tenaha's.

• an outside Strength Index cross-check (computer/CCCAA rankings -- workbook-only)

• Club Tenaha has gone 10 straight games rushing for 100+ yards (August 27, 2026 through October 29, 2026), going 5-5 over that stretch, a school-record 10 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Overton has gone 8 straight games rushing for 100+ yards (September 17, 2026 through November 12, 2026), going 8-0 over that stretch, a school-record 8 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Tenaha has gone 4 straight games forcing 1+ turnover (October 10, 2026 through October 29, 2026), going 2-2 over that stretch, a school-record 4 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Overton has won 8 straight, and a win would make it 9 in a row. The last time they won 9 or more in a row was 2023, a run of 9.

• Club Overton has gone 8 straight games averaging 5.0+ yards per carry (September 17, 2026 through November 12, 2026), going 8-0 over that stretch, a school-record 8 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Tenaha is 13-1 all time when scoring 40+ points. Tenaha's last loss when scoring 40+ points was September 16, 2022 against Arp (L, 51-66).

• Club Overton is 32-2 all time when scoring 40+ points. Overton's last loss when scoring 40+ points was November 28, 2025 against Mt. Enterprise (L, 46-74).

• Club Tenaha is 5-5 entering play against Overton, a start the program has had 1 time before in 5 seasons on record -- most recently 2022, which finished 5-6.

• Player Kori Miles has 30 tackles over his last 3 games (10.0 a game, October 16, 2026 through October 29, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Club Overton has scored 178 points over its last 3 games (59.3 a game, October 30, 2026 through November 12, 2026) -- its most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Player Makias Norris has 5 rushing touchdowns over his last 3 games (1.7 a game, October 16, 2026 through October 29, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Series This week's meeting is the 2nd time in 6 all-time meetings in which one of the two teams enters unbeaten — in 2023, Overton entered 9-0 (Tenaha won 41-21).

• Player Brooks Davis has gone 11 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.

• Player Jacobe Calloway has 299 receiving yards over his last 3 games (99.7 a game, October 16, 2026 through October 29, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Player Jackson Furlow has 3 touchdown catches over his last 3 games (1.0 a game, October 30, 2026 through November 12, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Series Overton leads the all-time series with Tenaha 3-2, across 5 meetings dating to 2022, and has won 3 straight in the series -- most recently 70-28 on October 2, 2026.

• Player Clayton Creech has 8 touchdown passes over his last 3 games (2.7 a game, October 16, 2026 through October 29, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Player Brooks Davis has gone 6 straight games throwing for 200+ yards, the longest such streak of his career.

• Player Darrien Menefee has 3 touchdown catches over his last 3 games (1.0 a game, October 16, 2026 through October 29, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Player Jacob Osburn has gone 6 straight games catching a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.

• Player Keren Cato has 27 tackles over his last 3 games (9.0 a game, October 16, 2026 through October 29, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Player Carmelo Bryant has 6 touchdown catches over his last 3 games (2.0 a game, October 30, 2026 through November 12, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Player Kash Holleman has 45 tackles over his last 4 games (11.2 a game, October 23, 2026 through November 12, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.

• TEN's offense has exceeded 100 rush yds in 10 straight games (08/27/2026-10/29/2026), going 5-5 over that stretch.

• OVE's offense has exceeded 5.0 YPC in 8 straight games (09/17/2026-11/12/2026), going 8-0 over that stretch.

• TEN rushes for 174.5+ yards (TEN's own median) (.999)

• OVE's offense has exceeded 200 pass yds in 6 straight games (10/02/2026-11/12/2026), going 6-0 over that stretch.

• OVE's offense has exceeded 6.0 YPP in 6 straight games (10/02/2026-11/12/2026), going 6-0 over that stretch.

• OVE's offense has exceeded 7.0 YPP in 6 straight games (10/02/2026-11/12/2026), going 6-0 over that stretch.

• OVE's offense has averaged 0.6 giveaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 11-game average is 1.4 giveaways per game. (-58%)

• OVE's offense has averaged 13.3 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 8.4 YPC. (+58%)

• OVE's offense has averaged 15.6 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 10.1 YPP. (+54%)

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)

TEN: 1 of 10 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .909 across those game(s).

OVE: 1 of 11 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .500 across those game(s).

(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)

--- TEN ---

--- OVE ---

The next meeting brings together Tenaha (5-5 this season) and Overton (10-1). The SP Strength Index has Tenaha at #887 and Overton at #320 of 1252 in the TX section. Overton leads the recent series 3-2 over the last 5 meetings. In the most recent meeting, on October 2, 2026, Overton pulled away 70-28.

Having dropped 4 of its last 7 entering play, Tenaha's pass defense has been the soft spot (conceded 200+ passing yards in 3 of its last 5, 3-2 in that stretch). The Tigers won anyway last time out, handling Alto 34-28. Unbeaten in its last 7 entering play, Overton's ball security has been the team's calling card (committed no more than one giveaway in 7 straight games, 7-0 in that stretch). That carried into last time out, the Mustangs handling Evadale 75-14.

The matchup within the matchup pairs Tenaha's rush defense with Overton's rushing offense. Tenaha's rush defense has been playing at a high level over the Tigers' last 5 games. Despite holding its opponents under 100 rushing yards in only 1 of the 5 games, the defense has averaged 185.0 rushing yards allowed per game (including a low of 49 in that span vs. Cross Roads). That is 51% below the Tigers' baseline of 379.3 yards per game over the 3 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Tigers have gone 3-2 in that stretch. They'll face a stiff test when the two meet. Overton's rushing offense has been playing at a high level over the Mustangs' last 7 games. The ground game has eclipsed 200 rushing yards in 5 of the 7 games while averaging 228.9 rushing yards per game (including a high of 285 in that span vs. Tenaha). That is 60% above the Mustangs' baseline of 143.0 yards per game over the 4 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Mustangs have gone 7-0 in that stretch.

WEAKNESS VS. WEAKNESS — Something has to give when the two meet. Tenaha's pass protection has been a real vulnerability over the Tigers' last 5 games. The offensive line has conceded at least 1 sack in 3 of the 5 games while averaging 1.6 sacks allowed per game (including a high of 6 in that span vs. Grapeland). That is 60% above the Tigers' baseline of 1.0 per game over the 3 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Tigers have gone 3-2 in that stretch. On the other side, Overton's pass rush has been a real vulnerability over the Mustangs' last 7 games. The defense has recorded fewer than 3 sacks in 6 of the 7 games while averaging 1.4 sacks per game (including a low of 0 in that span vs. Mt. Enterprise). That is 30% below the Mustangs' baseline of 2.0 per game over the 4 games prior — a clear drop; the Mustangs have gone 7-0 in that stretch.

ONE-SIDED — Tenaha's pass defense has been a real vulnerability over the Tigers' last 5 games. The defense has conceded 200+ passing yards in 3 of the 5 games while averaging 178.4 passing yards allowed per game (including a high of 348 in that span vs. Overton). That is 103% above the Tigers' baseline of 88.0 yards per game over the 3 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Tigers have gone 3-2 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Overton. Overton has averaged 296.4 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

ONE-SIDED — Tenaha's passing attack has been playing at a high level over the Tigers' last 7 games. Despite throwing for 200+ yards in only 3 of the 7 games, the offense has averaged 205.3 passing yards per game (including a high of 325 in that span vs. Mt. Enterprise). That is 131% above the Tigers' baseline of 88.7 yards per game over the 3 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Tigers have gone 3-4 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Overton. Overton has averaged 179.6 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

ONE-SIDED — Tenaha's rushing offense has been a real vulnerability over the Tigers' last 7 games. The ground game has failed to reach 200 rushing yards in 5 of the 7 games while averaging 167.3 rushing yards per game (including a low of 119 in that span vs. Overton). That is 37% below the Tigers' baseline of 265.3 yards per game over the 3 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Tigers have gone 3-4 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Overton. Overton has averaged 126.4 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

OVERTON

• OVERTON has won by 20+ in 6 straight games (10/2/26–11/12/26). It has not reached 7 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• OVERTON has scored 40+ in 6 straight games (10/2/26–11/12/26). It has not reached 7 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• OVERTON has scored 30+ in 8 straight games (9/17/26–11/12/26). It has not reached 9 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• OVERTON has gained 400+ total yards in 8 straight games (9/17/26–11/12/26). It has not reached 9 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

Each pair of rows above is tinted by the gap between the two teams' win% in that scenario, judged for the HOME team (the bottom row):

GRAY = negligible gap (.000-.050)

PURPLE = solid gap (.051-.150)

GREEN = big gap (.151+), favoring the home team

RED = big gap (.151+), against the home team

TEN OFFENSE vs OVE DEFENSE

OVE OFFENSE vs TEN DEFENSE

Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.

Explanatory Notes

Note 1 -- GAME PROJECTION -- FULL DETAIL (report pages 1-2)

Library-native projection: computed directly from the game library (slate_projection.SlateEngine), not the Excel workbook engine. This section does not yet include: an outside Strength Index cross-check (computer/CCCAA rankings -- workbook-only).

Note 2 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored

Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.

Note 3 -- OPPONENT STRENGTH (best-effort) -- why this is often empty

Only meaningful for a game against an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team on this workbook -- with just a couple of teams tracked, that's rare (mainly a direct matchup between them, if this run covers both); every other opponent has no win% on file here at all, so most of a team's schedule simply has no strength data to show.

Full Data Exports

Data Export 1 -- MATCHUP CONFLICTS — TAB-SEPARATED (13 columns)

Data Export 2 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)