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AT A GLANCE

In short: Spring Hill (3-6) at RUSK (5-4), September 24, 2026 (high school football). Final: RUSK 41, Spring Hill 14. The full report has the projection, unit grades, storylines, pregame notes, Big Game Watch, series history, season stats and both rosters.

SCOREPIRATE MATCHUP REPORT ·
SPRING HILL (AWAY) AT RUSK (HOME)
SPRING HILL 27.4  —  35.6 RUSK
RUSK 65.6% FAVORITES

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UNIT INDEX — GRADE (YDS VS AVG)
TEAMPASS ORUSH OPASS DRUSH D
SPRING HILL22.6 (-71.1)81.5 (+75.0)20.0 (+43.2)43.3 (+10.1)
RUSK60.5 (+7.7)58.8 (+8.6)80.4 (-49.3)54.1 (-10.9)
SPRING HILL AT RUSK
ADVANCED STATS PREVIEW · 2026 SEASON
RANKS VS · 96 teams DOWNLOAD CARD AS PDFDOWNLOAD AS JPEG
WIN PROB
34.4%
PROJ PTS
27.4
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SP STRENGTH INDEX··
UNIT INDEX··
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POINTS / GAME··
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YARDS / PLAY··
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TURNOVER MARGIN··
TAKEAWAYS··
GIVEAWAYS··
SACKS / GAME··
DEF MADE··
OFF ALLOWED··
PLAY CALLS (OFF)·
RUSH·
PLAYS FACED (DEF)·
RUSH·
SH OFF VS RUSK DEF
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··YDS / CARRY··
··PASS YDS / G··
··YDS / ATTEMPT··
··POINTS / G··
··RUSH O / RUSH D INDEX··
··PASS O / PASS D INDEX··
··TURNOVERS LOST / FORCED··
··SACKS ALLOWED / MADE··
RUSK OFF VS SH DEF
··RUSH YDS / G··
··YDS / CARRY··
··PASS YDS / G··
··YDS / ATTEMPT··
··POINTS / G··
··RUSH O / RUSH D INDEX··
··PASS O / PASS D INDEX··
··TURNOVERS LOST / FORCED··
··SACKS ALLOWED / MADE··
WIN PROB
65.6%
PROJ PTS
35.6
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··SP STRENGTH INDEX
··UNIT INDEX
··OFF
··DEF
··POINTS / GAME
··OFF
··DEF
··YARDS / GAME
··PASS
··RUSH
··YARDS ALLOWED / G
··PASS
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··YARDS / PLAY
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··DEF
··TURNOVER MARGIN
··TAKEAWAYS
··GIVEAWAYS
··SACKS / GAME
··DEF MADE
··OFF ALLOWED
·PLAY CALLS (OFF)
·RUSH
·PLAYS FACED (DEF)
·RUSH

Rank chips: 1 = best in the pool; blue strong, red weak. Yardage and efficiency use games with a full box score on file; points and turnovers use every played game. Unit Index = opponent-adjusted 0-100 league percentile.

PROJECTION COMPONENTS
COMPONENTPOINTSWEIGHTCONTRIBUTION
Strength-9.6128%-2.70
Own Margin-14.2323%-3.21
Efficiency+14.5521%+3.02
Head To Head-25.5020%-5.08
Common Opponents+6.249%+0.54
Garbage Time Margin--0%+0.00
EPA Efficiency--0%+0.00
What if he’s out?

Mark players out to re-project this game. Each value is how much of the margin that player is worth, from this season's data (his share of his team's win shares). Estimates — your selections change only your view.

PROJECTED TEAM YARDAGE
CATEGORYTEAMPROJECTED
PassingSPRING HILL62.7
PassingRUSK206.0
RushingSPRING HILL189.0
RushingRUSK188.0
TotalSPRING HILL251.7
TotalRUSK393.9
PROJECTED BOX SCORE
SPRING HILL — PASSING
PLAYERC/ATTCOMP %YDSYPATDINTQBR
BRODY PROCTOR3.9/7.452.3%62.78.50.40.4132.8
SPRING HILL — RUSHING
PLAYERCARYDSYPCTD
BRAILYNN THOMAS13.2123.79.41.2
DEVIN WEBB6.433.35.20.6
QUINTON CUTLER4.032.17.90.0
TOTALS23.6189.08.01.8
SPRING HILL — RECEIVING
PLAYERRECYDSYPCTD
BRANDON RUMFIELD1.824.113.70.4
JAYDEN RUNNELS1.220.718.00.3
CASON COPELAND1.517.912.20.1
TOTALS4.462.714.30.7
RUSK — PASSING
PLAYERC/ATTCOMP %YDSYPATDINTQBR
MALEKI OVERSTREET8.1/14.456.5%206.014.32.70.2235.0
RUSK — RUSHING
PLAYERCARYDSYPCTD
KICERIUN TEAGUE21.2114.65.41.5
CADEN CHRISTOPHER5.842.47.30.4
TYRONE RUFF3.931.07.90.1
TOTALS30.9188.06.12.0
RUSK — RECEIVING
PLAYERRECYDSYPCTD
JAYDEN BURTON3.862.516.50.8
KICERIUN TEAGUE5.354.410.20.2
ELIJAH MCDUFF2.646.318.00.9
TRENDAN BONIN2.442.818.00.7
TOTALS14.1206.014.72.6
PREGAME NOTES

The first meeting between these two hinged on a single stat: Spring Hill's passing. The Panthers averaged 3.6 yards per pass attempt (43 yards on 12 attempts) against RUSK on 9/24, well below their 6.4 mark in every other game this season. Spring Hill lost the game 41-14. A passing number closer to Spring Hill's norm would go a long way toward flipping the result this time.

The first meeting between these two hinged on a single stat: RUSK's pass defense. The Eagles allowed 3.6 yards per pass attempt (43 yards on 12 attempts) against Spring Hill on 9/24, well below their 9.4 mark in every other game this season. RUSK won the game 41-14. Repeating that kind of pass defense edge would put RUSK in a strong position to do it again.

Something changed for Spring Hill's defense after the first 6 games of the season. Spring Hill allowed 36.5 points per game over its first 6 games (3-3), #928 in section during that period. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), the Panthers have allowed 59.0 points per game, a 62% rise, #1188 in section during that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Spring Hill's last 3 opponents have averaged 42.0 points per game, a #191 offense in section on the season, against 27.4 points per game, #697 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (42.0 points per game), Spring Hill allowed 40% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #51 in section, well above the first 6 (#581), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Spring Hill ranks #1110 in section in scoring defense. RUSK's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #446 in section (34.0 points per game). Spring Hill is 2-0 this season when it holds opponents under 34, and 1-6 when it doesn't.

RUSK averaged 48.0 points per game over its first 3 games (3-0), #79 in section over that period. Few teams started faster in this department, and few have cooled off as sharply since. In the 6 games since that hot start (2-4), the Eagles have averaged 27.0 points per game, a 44% drop, #698 in section over that timeframe. The schedule has a lot to do with it: RUSK's last 6 opponents have averaged 30.2 points per game, a #704 scoring defense in section on the season, against 39.8 points per game, #1021 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (30.2 points per game), RUSK scored 11% less than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #303 in section, well above the first 3 (#873), so the dip has come against better teams overall. RUSK was held to 14 points or fewer 3 times in those games, including 13 against Troup on 9/18. On the season, RUSK ranks #444 in section in scoring. Spring Hill's defense, #1110 of 1235 (44.0 points per game), could be the get-right matchup RUSK needs. RUSK is 2-0 this season when it scores 44 or more, and 3-4 when it doesn't.

One of Spring Hill's shakiest areas lately has been its offense. The Panthers averaged 34.3 points per game over their first 3 games (2-1), #401 in section over that span. In the 6 games since that hot start (1-5), Spring Hill has averaged 19.3 points per game, a 44% drop, #934 in section in that timeframe. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Spring Hill's last 6 opponents have averaged 28.7 points per game, a #642 scoring defense in section on the season, against 36.5 points per game, #920 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (28.7 points per game), Spring Hill scored 33% less than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #228 in section, well above the first 3 (#650), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Spring Hill was held to 14 points or fewer 3 times in those games, including 6 against Pleasant Grove on 10/30. On the season, the Panthers rank #800 in section in scoring. RUSK's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #444 in section (24.9 points per game). Spring Hill is 3-1 this season when it scores 25 or more, and 0-5 when it doesn't.

RUSK's offense has struggled to move the chains as the season has progressed. The Eagles averaged 7.9 yards per play (1,438 yards on 182 snaps) over their first 4 games (3-1), #261 in section in that window. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), RUSK has averaged 5.7 yards per play (1,654 yards on 289 snaps), a 28% drop, #720 in section during that time. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.7 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.7 yards per play), RUSK gained 14% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #372 in section, well above the first 4 (#640), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Eagles rank #589 in section in yards per play. Spring Hill's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #711 in section (7.1 yards per play).

BIG GAME WATCH

Players positioned for an outsized game because of this opponent: a player's share of his team's win shares, weighted by the tendencies of the team across from him. Only matchup-driven picks are shown.

Spring Hill

Nothing about this opponent moves one player ahead of the rest.

RUSK

C. HuntDL6 sacks and 11 TFLSpring Hill runs on 77% of its snaps, #116 of 947 in section; 6 sacks and 11 TFL put him at the point of attack
Trenton PepinLB76 tackles and 6 TFLSpring Hill runs on 77% of its snaps, #116 of 947 in section; 76 tackles and 6 TFL make him the one who has to clean it up
MILESTONE WATCH

Spring Hill

  • Ryan Barton needs 1 tackle for 50 (averaging 5.4 a game)

RUSK

  • Josiah Givens needs 2 tackles for 50 (averaging 5.3 a game)
  • Josiah Francis needs 4 tackles for 75 (averaging 8.9 a game)
  • Aiden Adams needs 3 tackles for 50 (averaging 5.2 a game)
  • C. Hunt needs 6 tackles for 75 (averaging 7.7 a game)
STORYLINES

If there's one number to watch in this matchup, it's RUSK's scoring defense. RUSK allowed 11.3 points per game over its first 3 games (3-0), #90 in section in that timeframe. In the 6 games since that hot start (2-4), the Eagles have allowed 31.7 points per game, a 179% rise, #741 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: RUSK's last 6 opponents have averaged 38.9 points per game, a #275 offense in section on the season, against 23.1 points per game, #851 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (38.9 points per game), RUSK held those offenses 19% below what they usually score. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #303 in section, well above the first 3 (#873), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Spring Hill's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Panthers have averaged 19.3 points per game over their last 6 games (1-5), #934 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in section (28.7 points per game on the season, which would rank #642). Against those norms, Spring Hill scored 33% less than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #228 in section, a strong slate. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. RUSK is 4-1 this season when it holds opponents under 25, and 1-3 when it doesn't.

The turnover battle has the potential to swing this matchup, with the recent returns favoring Spring Hill. RUSK forced 1.5 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #410 in section through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Eagles have forced 0.4 takeaways per game, a 73% drop, #1029 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: RUSK's last 5 opponents have averaged 1.0 per game, a #466 offense in section on the season, against 1.2 per game, #549 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.0 per game), RUSK forced 61% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #372 in section, well above the first 4 (#640), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Spring Hill's ball security has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Panthers have committed 1.2 giveaways per game over their last 5 games (1-4), #584 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better defenses in section (1.6 per game on the season, which would rank #344). Against those norms, Spring Hill turned it over 25% less than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #205 in section, a strong slate. Spring Hill offers RUSK a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.

The RUSK ground game that opened the season is not the one that has taken the field lately. RUSK averaged 7.7 yards per carry (865 yards on 112 rushes) over its first 3 games (3-0), #179 in section within that period. In the 6 games since that hot start (2-4), the Eagles have averaged 4.6 yards per carry (970 yards on 212 rushes), a 41% drop, #782 in section across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.1 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.8 yards per carry), RUSK ran for 22% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #303 in section, well above the first 3 (#873), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Spring Hill's run defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Panthers have allowed 6.3 yards per carry (1,062 yards on 169 rushes) over their last 6 games (1-5), #663 in section during those games. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of rushing attacks in section (5.9 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #510). Against those norms, Spring Hill allowed 6% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #228 in section, a strong slate. Spring Hill offers RUSK a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.

SERIES HISTORY — SH vs RUS
Prep this game in Stat BoothSPRING HILL team sheetRUSK team sheet
TIDBITS (16 found)

• Club The last time Spring Hill went a game holding the opponent under 100 rushing yards was November 8, 2024 against Pittsburg (W, 45-7). Since then Spring Hill has gone 20 straight games allowing 100+ rushing yards, a school-record 20 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Rusk has gone 9 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers (August 28, 2026 through October 30, 2026), going 5-4 over that stretch, a school-record 9 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club The last time Spring Hill went a game throwing for 200+ yards was September 25, 2025 against Grandview (L, 55-63). Since then Spring Hill has gone 14 straight games being held under 200 passing yards, a school-record 14 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Spring Hill has lost 3 straight, and a loss would make it 4 in a row. The last time they lost 4 or more in a row was 2025, a run of 6.

• Player Maleki Overstreet has gone 9 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.

• Club Spring Hill has gone 7 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers (September 11, 2026 through October 30, 2026), going 2-5 over that stretch, a school-record 7 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Player Trenton Pepin has 36 tackles over his last 3 games (12.0 a game, September 24, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Club Spring Hill is 3-6 entering play against Rusk, its first 3-6 start through 9 games in the 5 seasons on record.

• Player Quinton Cutler has 37 tackles over his last 4 games (9.2 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 30, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.

• Player C.j. Hunt has 29 tackles over his last 3 games (9.7 a game, October 16, 2026 through October 30, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Player Keilan Logan has 49 tackles over his last 5 games (9.8 a game, September 24, 2026 through October 30, 2026) -- his most in a 5-game stretch on record.

• Series Rusk leads the all-time series with Spring Hill 1-0, across 1 meetings dating to 2026.

• Player C.j. Hunt has 3 sacks over his last 3 games (1.0 a game, October 16, 2026 through October 30, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Player Lane Ware has 33 tackles over his last 4 games (8.2 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 30, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch since the 36 he had from November 7, 2025 through September 11, 2026.

• Player Trendan Bonin has gone 2 straight games catching a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.

• Player Quinton Cutler has gone 13 straight games without rushing for 100+ yards. The last time he ran for 100+ yards was November 14, 2024 against Carthage (L, 0-49) — 119 rushing yards.

SH — STAT LEADERS
FULL ROSTER ↓
OFFENSE
PASSING LEADER
224PASS YDS
C-ATT19-28
COMP%67.9%
YPA8.0
TD1
INT2
QBR132.6
RUSHING LEADER
176RUSH YDS
CAR13
YPC13.5
RUSH TD2
REC2
REC YDS21
YPR10.5
REC TD0
RUSHING LEADER
96RUSH YDS
CAR11
YPC8.7
RUSH TD0
REC0
REC YDS0
YPR--
REC TD0
RECEIVING LEADER
82REC YDS
REC4
YPR20.5
REC TD1
RECEIVING LEADER
74REC YDS
REC5
YPR14.8
REC TD0
DEFENSE
TACKLES LEADER
78TCKL
TFL1
SACKS1
INT0
PD0
FF0
TACKLES LEADER
77TCKL
TFL2
SACKS0
INT0
PD4
FF0
TACKLES LEADER
75TCKL
TFL3
SACKS2
INT0
PD0
FF4
TFL LEADER
9TFL
TCKL55
SACKS1
INT0
PD0
FF1
TFL LEADER
5TFL
TCKL63
SACKS2
INT0
PD1
FF0
SACKS LEADER
1SACKS
TCKL55
TFL2
INT0
PD0
FF2
SACKS LEADER
0SACKS
TCKL49
TFL0
INT0
PD0
FF1
INTERCEPTIONS LEADER
1INT
TCKL29
TFL0
SACKS0
PD4
FF0
RUS — STAT LEADERS
FULL ROSTER ↓
OFFENSE
PASSING LEADER
1257PASS YDS
C-ATT81-147
COMP%55.1%
YPA8.6
TD16
INT4
QBR157.4
RUSHING LEADER
851RUSH YDS
CAR142
YPC6.0
RUSH TD12
REC21
REC YDS208
YPR9.9
REC TD1
RUSHING LEADER
516RUSH YDS
CAR67
YPC7.7
RUSH TD5
REC7
REC YDS31
YPR4.4
REC TD0
RECEIVING LEADER
395REC YDS
REC24
YPR16.5
REC TD5
RECEIVING LEADER
263REC YDS
REC11
YPR23.9
REC TD5
DEFENSE
TACKLES LEADER
76TCKL
TFL6
SACKS2
INT0
PD0
FF2
TACKLES LEADER
71TCKL
TFL2.5
SACKS2
INT0
PD0
FF0
TACKLES LEADER
69TCKL
TFL11
SACKS6
INT0
PD1
FF1
TFL LEADER
11TFL
TCKL57
SACKS5
INT0
PD0
FF2
TFL LEADER
8TFL
TCKL60
SACKS2
INT2
PD3
FF0
SACKS LEADER
2SACKS
TCKL37
TFL5
INT0
PD2
FF1
SACKS LEADER
2SACKS
TCKL34
TFL3
INT0
PD0
FF0
INTERCEPTIONS LEADER
1INT
TCKL0
TFL0
SACKS0
PD0
FF0
SEASON OUTLOOK

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)

--- SPRING HILL ---

RECORD TO DATEMOST LIKELY FINALPROJECTED RECORD
Overall3-6 so far3-7 (85%)3.1-6.9
League1-3 so far1-3 (100%)1.0-3.0

--- RUSK ---

RECORD TO DATEMOST LIKELY FINALPROJECTED RECORD
Overall5-4 so far5-5 (71%)5.3-4.7
League1-3 so far1-3 (100%)1.0-3.0
TALKING POINTS (14 storylines)
SH IS LIKELIEST TO BEAT RUS IF...

• SH averages 7.0+ yards per play (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so

• SH holds RUS under 6.0 yards per play (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so

• SH forces 1+ takeaways (.750), but most recently lost to Pittsburg when doing so

RUS IS LIKELIEST TO BEAT SH IF...

• RUS averages 6.0+ yards per play (.999), and has won 5 straight when doing so

• RUS averages 8.0+ yards per attempt (.833), and has won 2 straight when doing so

• RUS rushes for 100+ yards (.833)

• SH's offense has failed to reach 200 pass yds in 9 straight games (08/28/2026-10/30/2026), going 3-6 over that stretch.

• SH's offense has exceeded 100 rush yds in 9 straight games (08/28/2026-10/30/2026), going 3-6 over that stretch.

• RUS averages 8.4+ yards per attempt (RUS's own median) (.999)

• RUS averages 6.2+ yards per play (RUS's own median) (.999)

• RUS's defense has averaged 0.4 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 0.9 takeaways per game. (-55%)

• SH is 3-1 (.750) when it wins the turnover battle

• RUS's offense has averaged 1.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 0.7 giveaways per game. (+50%)

• SH holds its opponents under 9.9 yards per attempt (SH's own median) (.750)

• SH holds its opponents under 140.5 passing yards (SH's own median) (.750)

MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)

SH -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS

(top 4 of 4 scored; vs 229 cached team(s))

#SIDECONDITIONRECWIN%PPGSTRKSCORE
1OFFTurnovers < 33-5.37526.5L30.799
2DEFRush Yds 100+3-5.37542.5L20.765
3OFFPass Yds < 2003-6.33324.3L30.143
4OFFRush Yds 100+3-6.33324.3L30.100

RUS -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS

(top 3 of 3 scored; vs 229 cached team(s))

#SIDECONDITIONRECWIN%PPGSTRKSCORE
1OFFTurnovers < 25-3.62536.6W10.770
2DEFTurnovers < 35-4.55624.9W10.365
3OFFTurnovers < 35-4.55634.0W10.114
OPPONENT STRENGTH (best-effort)

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 4)

SH: 1 of 9 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .556 across those game(s).

RUS: 1 of 9 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .333 across those game(s).

WIN %: TWO-CONDITION COMBINATIONS (7 found, min 4 Gms each)

(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)

--- SH ---

CONDITIONRECWIN%PPGSTRK
SH rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards3-6.33324.3L3
SH averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards3-3.50032.2L1
SH averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards3-1.75039.8L1

--- RUS ---

CONDITIONRECWIN%PPGSTRK
RUS averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards5-0.99945.8W5
RUS rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards4-0.99947.0W4
RUS averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards4-0.99947.0W4
RUS averages 6.0+ yards per play while committing zero giveaways4-0.99948.5W4
WIN % -- TAB-SEPARATED
TeamConditionRecordWin%PPG
SHRush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 2003-6.33324.3
SHYPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+3-3.50032.2
SHYPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+3-1.75039.8
RUSYPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+5-0.99945.8
RUSRush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 2004-0.99947.0
RUSYPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+4-0.99947.0
RUSYPP 6.0+ & Turnovers < 14-0.99948.5
PREGAME NOTES

The next meeting brings together Spring Hill (3-6 this season) and Rusk (5-4). The SP Strength Index has Spring Hill at #692 and Rusk at #464 of 1252 in the TX section. Rusk leads the recent series 1-0 over the last 1 meetings. In the most recent meeting, on September 24, 2026, Rusk pulled away 41-14.

Having dropped 5 of its last 7 entering play, Spring Hill's pass protection has been the soft spot (at least 1 sack conceded in 5 straight, 1-4 in that stretch). It showed again last time out, the Panthers falling to Pleasant Grove 56-6. Having dropped 4 of its last 7 entering play, Rusk's takeaway production has been the soft spot (no takeaway in 5 straight, 2-3 in that stretch). The Eagles won anyway last time out, handling Brownsboro 44-14.

The matchup within the matchup pairs Spring Hill's pass protection with Rusk's pass rush. Spring Hill has an uncomfortable assignment when the two meet. Spring Hill's pass protection has been a real vulnerability over the Panthers' last 5 games. The offensive line has conceded at least 1 sack in 5 straight games, averaging 2.9 sacks allowed per game (including a high of 6 in that span vs. Rusk). That is 867% above the Panthers' baseline of 0.3 per game over the 9 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Panthers have gone 1-4 in that stretch. Across the line, Rusk's pass rush has been playing at a high level over the Eagles' last 10 games, dating back to last season. Despite recording 3+ sacks in only 3 of the 10 games, the defense has averaged 2.5 sacks per game (including a high of 6 in that span vs. Spring Hill). That is 525% above the Eagles' baseline of 0.4 per game over the 7 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Eagles have gone 5-5 in that stretch.

STORYLINES

ONE-SIDED — Spring Hill's passing attack has been playing at a high level over the Panthers' last 10 games, dating back to last season. Despite throwing for 200+ yards in only 1 of the 10 games, the offense has averaged 80.4 passing yards per game (including a high of 252 in that span vs. Grandview). That is 554% above the Panthers' baseline of 12.3 yards per game over the 3 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Panthers have gone 3-7 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Rusk. Rusk has averaged 158.1 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

ONE-SIDED — Rusk's passing attack has been playing at a high level over the Eagles' last 5 games. Despite throwing for 200+ yards in only 2 of the 5 games, the offense has averaged 153.2 passing yards per game (including a high of 221 in that span vs. Madisonville). That is 59% above the Eagles' baseline of 96.5 yards per game over the 6 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Eagles have gone 2-3 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Spring Hill. Spring Hill has averaged 157.5 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

ONE-SIDED — Spring Hill's rush defense has been a real vulnerability over the Panthers' last 5 games. The defense has conceded 100+ rushing yards in 5 straight games, averaging 212.4 rushing yards allowed per game (including a high of 263 in that span vs. Carthage). That is 23% above the Panthers' baseline of 173.0 yards per game over the 4 games prior — a clear jump; the Panthers have gone 1-4 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Rusk. Rusk has averaged 165.1 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

SH — OFFENSE (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+2-1.66743.7L1
YPA < 8.01-5.16714.7L2
Pass Yds 200+--------
Pass Yds < 2003-6.33324.3L3
Rush Yds 100+3-6.33324.3L3
Rush Yds < 100--------
Rush Yds 150+3-3.50032.2L1
Rush Yds < 1500-3.0008.7L3
YPC 5.0+3-4.42929.4L2
YPC < 5.00-2.0006.5L2
YPP 6.0+3-1.75039.8L1
YPP < 6.00-5.00012.0L5
YPP 7.0+3-01.00041.3W3
YPP < 7.00-6.00015.8L6
Turnovers 1+2-5.28621.1L3
Turnovers < 11-1.50035.5L1
Turnovers 2+0-3.00016.0L3
Turnovers > 20-1.0007.0L1
RUS — OFFENSE (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+5-1.83340.3W2
YPA < 8.00-3.00021.3L3
Pass Yds 200+1-1.50039.0L1
Pass Yds < 2004-3.57132.6W1
Rush Yds 100+5-1.83344.3W1
Rush Yds < 1000-3.00013.3L3
Rush Yds 150+5-1.83344.3W1
Rush Yds < 1500-3.00013.3L3
YPC 5.0+4-01.00047.0W4
YPC < 5.01-4.20023.6L3
YPP 6.0+5-01.00045.8W5
YPP < 6.00-4.00019.2L4
YPP 7.0+4-01.00047.0W4
YPP < 7.01-4.20023.6L3
Turnovers 1+1-4.20022.4L4
Turnovers < 14-01.00048.5W4
Turnovers 2+0-1.00013.0L1
Turnovers > 2--------
SH — DEFENSE (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+1-5.16750.8L5
YPA < 8.02-01.00017.5W2 1 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+0-2.00052.0L2
Pass Yds < 2003-3.50039.3L1 1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+3-5.37542.5L2
Rush Yds < 100-------- 1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+2-5.28646.6L2
Rush Yds < 1501-01.00014.0W1 1 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+0-4.00057.5L4
YPC < 5.03-1.75027.5W1 1 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+0-5.00054.2L5
YPP < 6.03-01.00023.0W3 1 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+0-4.00057.5L4
YPP < 7.03-1.75027.5W1 1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+3-1.75031.8L1
Turnovers < 10-5.00053.8L5
Turnovers 2+3-1.75031.8L1
Turnovers > 21-1.50036.0L1
RUS — DEFENSE (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+1-2.33330.3L2
YPA < 8.01-01.00014.0W1 5 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+--------
Pass Yds < 2002-2.50026.2L1 5 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+1-2.33335.0L1
Rush Yds < 1001-01.0000.0W1 5 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+1-2.33335.0L1
Rush Yds < 1501-01.0000.0W1 5 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+1-2.33335.0L1
YPC < 5.01-01.0000.0W1 5 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+1-2.33330.3L2
YPP < 6.01-01.00014.0W1 5 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+1-1.50028.0L1
YPP < 7.01-1.50024.5W1 5 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+4-2.66721.8W1
Turnovers < 11-2.33331.0L2
Turnovers 2+2-01.0000.0W2
Turnovers > 2--------
SH — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Scores <100-2.0006.5
Scores 10-190-2.00013.5
Scores 20-291-1.50024.0
Scores 30-391-1.50037.0
Scores 40+1-01.00057.0
SH — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Allows <10------
Allows 10-191-01.00014.0
Allows 20-291-01.00021.0
Allows 30-391-01.00034.0
Allows 40+0-6.00054.5
RUS — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Scores <10------
Scores 10-190-3.00013.3
Scores 20-29------
Scores 30-392-1.66735.0
Scores 40+3-01.00053.7
RUS — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Allows <102-01.0000.0
Allows 10-192-01.00014.0
Allows 20-290-1.00023.0
Allows 30-391-1.50034.5
Allows 40+0-2.00052.0
ON THE BRINK

SPRING HILL

• SPRING HILL has committed 2+ turnovers in 2 straight games (10/23/26–10/30/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• SPRING HILL has lost by 20+ in 3 straight games (10/15/26–10/30/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• SPRING HILL has lost 3 straight (10/15/26–10/30/26). It has not lost 4 straight since 9/5/25–10/17/25 (2025). It has reached 4 straight 2 times in the last 4 years and has lost a high of 6 straight (2024) in that span.

• SPRING HILL has allowed 30+ in 3 straight games (10/15/26–10/30/26). It has not allowed 30+ in 4 straight since 10/31/25–9/4/26 (2026). It has reached 4 straight 3 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 8 straight (2024) in that span.

TAB-SEPARATED (paste into a spreadsheet)
TeamSideSplitGamesRecordWin%PPGStrk
SHOFFENSEYPA 8.0+32-1.66743.7L1
SHOFFENSEYPA < 8.061-5.16714.7L2
SHOFFENSEPass Yds < 20093-6.33324.3L3
SHOFFENSERush Yds 100+93-6.33324.3L3
SHOFFENSERush Yds 150+63-3.50032.2L1
SHOFFENSERush Yds < 15030-3.0008.7L3
SHOFFENSEYPC 5.0+73-4.42929.4L2
SHOFFENSEYPC < 5.020-2.0006.5L2
SHOFFENSEYPP 6.0+43-1.75039.8L1
SHOFFENSEYPP < 6.050-5.00012.0L5
SHOFFENSEYPP 7.0+33-01.00041.3W3
SHOFFENSEYPP < 7.060-6.00015.8L6
SHOFFENSETurnovers 1+72-5.28621.1L3
SHOFFENSETurnovers < 121-1.50035.5L1
SHOFFENSETurnovers 2+30-3.00016.0L3
SHOFFENSETurnovers > 210-1.0007.0L1
SHOFFENSEScores <1020-2.0006.5L2
SHOFFENSEScores 10-1920-2.00013.5L2
SHOFFENSEScores 20-2921-1.50024.0W1
SHOFFENSEScores 30-3921-1.50037.0L1
SHOFFENSEScores 40+11-01.00057.0W1
SHDEFENSEYPA 8.0+61-5.16750.8L5
SHDEFENSEYPA < 8.022-01.00017.5W2
SHDEFENSEPass Yds 200+20-2.00052.0L2
SHDEFENSEPass Yds < 20063-3.50039.3L1
SHDEFENSERush Yds 100+83-5.37542.5L2
SHDEFENSERush Yds 150+72-5.28646.6L2
SHDEFENSERush Yds < 15011-01.00014.0W1
SHDEFENSEYPC 5.0+40-4.00057.5L4
SHDEFENSEYPC < 5.043-1.75027.5W1
SHDEFENSEYPP 6.0+50-5.00054.2L5
SHDEFENSEYPP < 6.033-01.00023.0W3
SHDEFENSEYPP 7.0+40-4.00057.5L4
SHDEFENSEYPP < 7.043-1.75027.5W1
SHDEFENSETurnovers 1+43-1.75031.8L1
SHDEFENSETurnovers < 150-5.00053.8L5
SHDEFENSETurnovers 2+43-1.75031.8L1
SHDEFENSETurnovers > 221-1.50036.0L1
SHDEFENSEAllows 10-1911-01.00014.0W1
SHDEFENSEAllows 20-2911-01.00021.0W1
SHDEFENSEAllows 30-3911-01.00034.0W1
SHDEFENSEAllows 40+60-6.00054.5L6
RUSOFFENSEYPA 8.0+65-1.83340.3W2
RUSOFFENSEYPA < 8.030-3.00021.3L3
RUSOFFENSEPass Yds 200+21-1.50039.0L1
RUSOFFENSEPass Yds < 20074-3.57132.6W1
RUSOFFENSERush Yds 100+65-1.83344.3W1
RUSOFFENSERush Yds < 10030-3.00013.3L3
RUSOFFENSERush Yds 150+65-1.83344.3W1
RUSOFFENSERush Yds < 15030-3.00013.3L3
RUSOFFENSEYPC 5.0+44-01.00047.0W4
RUSOFFENSEYPC < 5.051-4.20023.6L3
RUSOFFENSEYPP 6.0+55-01.00045.8W5
RUSOFFENSEYPP < 6.040-4.00019.2L4
RUSOFFENSEYPP 7.0+44-01.00047.0W4
RUSOFFENSEYPP < 7.051-4.20023.6L3
RUSOFFENSETurnovers 1+51-4.20022.4L4
RUSOFFENSETurnovers < 144-01.00048.5W4
RUSOFFENSETurnovers 2+10-1.00013.0L1
RUSOFFENSEScores 10-1930-3.00013.3L3
RUSOFFENSEScores 30-3932-1.66735.0L1
RUSOFFENSEScores 40+33-01.00053.7W3
RUSDEFENSEYPA 8.0+31-2.33330.3L2
RUSDEFENSEYPA < 8.011-01.00014.0W1
RUSDEFENSEPass Yds < 20042-2.50026.2L1
RUSDEFENSERush Yds 100+31-2.33335.0L1
RUSDEFENSERush Yds < 10011-01.0000.0W1
RUSDEFENSERush Yds 150+31-2.33335.0L1
RUSDEFENSERush Yds < 15011-01.0000.0W1
RUSDEFENSEYPC 5.0+31-2.33335.0L1
RUSDEFENSEYPC < 5.011-01.0000.0W1
RUSDEFENSEYPP 6.0+31-2.33330.3L2
RUSDEFENSEYPP < 6.011-01.00014.0W1
RUSDEFENSEYPP 7.0+21-1.50028.0L1
RUSDEFENSEYPP < 7.021-1.50024.5W1
RUSDEFENSETurnovers 1+64-2.66721.8W1
RUSDEFENSETurnovers < 131-2.33331.0L2
RUSDEFENSETurnovers 2+22-01.0000.0W2
RUSDEFENSEAllows <1022-01.0000.0W2
RUSDEFENSEAllows 10-1922-01.00014.0W2
RUSDEFENSEAllows 20-2910-1.00023.0L1
RUSDEFENSEAllows 30-3921-1.50034.5L1
RUSDEFENSEAllows 40+20-2.00052.0L2
STREAKS: SH (combined OFFENSE+DEFENSE)
SIDESPLITSTREAKDATESRECORD
OFFENSEPass Yds < 2009 games08/28/2026 - 10/30/20263-6
OFFENSERush Yds 100+9 games08/28/2026 - 10/30/20263-6
OFFENSETurnovers 1+4 games10/09/2026 - 10/30/20261-3
OFFENSEYPP < 7.03 games10/15/2026 - 10/30/20260-3
STREAKS: RUS (combined OFFENSE+DEFENSE)
SIDESPLITSTREAKDATESRECORD
OFFENSEPass Yds < 2003 games10/16/2026 - 10/30/20261-2
STREAKS — ALL TEAMS
TeamSideSplitStreakDatesRecord
SHOFFENSEPass Yds < 2009 games08/28/2026 - 10/30/20263-6
SHOFFENSERush Yds 100+9 games08/28/2026 - 10/30/20263-6
SHOFFENSETurnovers 1+4 games10/09/2026 - 10/30/20261-3
SHOFFENSEYPP < 7.03 games10/15/2026 - 10/30/20260-3
RUSOFFENSEPass Yds < 2003 games10/16/2026 - 10/30/20261-2
MATCHUP CONFLICT POINTS: SH vs RUS

Each pair of rows above is tinted by the gap between the two teams' win% in that scenario, judged for the HOME team (the bottom row):

GRAY = negligible gap (.000-.050)

PURPLE = solid gap (.051-.150)

GREEN = big gap (.151+), favoring the home team

RED = big gap (.151+), against the home team

SH OFFENSE vs RUS DEFENSE

100 RUSH YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFOVER93-6.33324.3L3
RUSDEFOVER31-2.33335.0L1
150 RUSH YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFOVER63-3.50032.2L1
RUSDEFOVER31-2.33335.0L1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFUNDER30-3.0008.7L3
RUSDEFUNDER11-01.0000.0W1
YPC 5.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFOVER73-4.42929.4L2
RUSDEFOVER31-2.33335.0L1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFUNDER20-2.0006.5L2
RUSDEFUNDER11-01.0000.0W1
YPA 8.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFOVER32-1.66743.7L1
RUSDEFOVER31-2.33330.3L2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFUNDER61-5.16714.7L2
RUSDEFUNDER11-01.00014.0W1
200 PASS YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFUNDER93-6.33324.3L3
RUSDEFUNDER42-2.50026.2L1
0 TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFZERO21-1.50035.5L1
RUSDEFZERO31-2.33331.0L2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFOVER72-5.28621.1L3
RUSDEFOVER64-2.66721.8W1
2+ TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFOVER30-3.00016.0L3
RUSDEFOVER22-01.0000.0W2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFUNDER63-3.50028.5L1
RUSDEFUNDER73-4.42932.0W1
>2 TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFUNDER83-5.37526.5L3
RUSDEFUNDER95-4.55624.9W1
YPP 6.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFOVER43-1.75039.8L1
RUSDEFOVER31-2.33330.3L2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFUNDER50-5.00012.0L5
RUSDEFUNDER11-01.00014.0W1
YPP 7.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFOVER33-01.00041.3W3
RUSDEFOVER21-1.50028.0L1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHOFFUNDER60-6.00015.8L6
RUSDEFUNDER21-1.50024.5W1

RUS OFFENSE vs SH DEFENSE

100 RUSH YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFOVER83-5.37542.5L2
RUSOFFOVER65-1.83344.3W1
150 RUSH YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFOVER72-5.28646.6L2
RUSOFFOVER65-1.83344.3W1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFUNDER11-01.00014.0W1
RUSOFFUNDER30-3.00013.3L3
YPC 5.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFOVER40-4.00057.5L4
RUSOFFOVER44-01.00047.0W4
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFUNDER43-1.75027.5W1
RUSOFFUNDER51-4.20023.6L3
YPA 8.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFOVER61-5.16750.8L5
RUSOFFOVER65-1.83340.3W2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFUNDER22-01.00017.5W2
RUSOFFUNDER30-3.00021.3L3
200 PASS YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFOVER20-2.00052.0L2
RUSOFFOVER21-1.50039.0L1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFUNDER63-3.50039.3L1
RUSOFFUNDER74-3.57132.6W1
0 TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFZERO50-5.00053.8L5
RUSOFFZERO44-01.00048.5W4
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFOVER43-1.75031.8L1
RUSOFFOVER51-4.20022.4L4
2+ TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFOVER43-1.75031.8L1
RUSOFFOVER10-1.00013.0L1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFUNDER50-5.00053.8L5
RUSOFFUNDER85-3.62536.6W1
>2 TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFUNDER72-5.28646.3L2
RUSOFFUNDER95-4.55634.0W1
YPP 6.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFOVER50-5.00054.2L5
RUSOFFOVER55-01.00045.8W5
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFUNDER33-01.00023.0W3
RUSOFFUNDER40-4.00019.2L4
YPP 7.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFOVER40-4.00057.5L4
RUSOFFOVER44-01.00047.0W4
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
SHDEFUNDER43-1.75027.5W1
RUSOFFUNDER51-4.20023.6L3

(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)

NOTABLE TRENDS (14 of 14 found, team |deviation| >= 20%, matchup |deviation| >= 20%)

SH OFFENSE

SH's offense has averaged 1.7 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 1.2 giveaways per game. (+36%)

SH's offense has averaged 18.0 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 24.3 points scored per game. (-26%)

SH's offense has averaged 76.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 61.3 pass yards per game. (+25%)

SH's offense has averaged 5.2 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 6.8 YPC. (-23%)

RUS OFFENSE

RUS's offense has averaged 1.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 0.7 giveaways per game. (+50%)

RUS's offense has averaged 6.3 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 9.9 YPA. (-36%)

RUS's offense has averaged 23.7 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 34.0 points scored per game. (-30%)

RUS's offense has averaged 111.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 139.7 pass yards per game. (-21%)

SH DEFENSE

SH's defense has averaged 8.7 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 6.3 YPC. (+38%)

SH's defense has averaged 59.0 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 44.0 points allowed per game. (+34%)

SH's defense has averaged 9.6 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 7.4 YPP. (+30%)

SH's defense has averaged 202.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 157.5 pass yards per game. (+28%)

RUS DEFENSE

RUS's defense has averaged 0.4 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 0.9 takeaways per game. (-55%)

RUS's defense has averaged 32.0 points allowed per game over their last 7 games. Their 9-game average is 24.9 points allowed per game. (+29%)

(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 2, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)

APPENDIX

Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.

Explanatory Notes

Note 1 -- GAME PROJECTION -- FULL DETAIL (report pages 1-2)

Library-native projection: computed directly from the game library (slate_projection.SlateEngine), not the Excel workbook engine. This section does not yet include: an outside Strength Index cross-check (computer/CCCAA rankings -- workbook-only).

Note 2 -- SEASON OUTLOOK

Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).

Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored

Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.

Note 4 -- OPPONENT STRENGTH (best-effort) -- why this is often empty

Only meaningful for a game against an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team on this workbook -- with just a couple of teams tracked, that's rare (mainly a direct matchup between them, if this run covers both); every other opponent has no win% on file here at all, so most of a team's schedule simply has no strength data to show.

Full Data Exports

Data Export 1 -- MATCHUP CONFLICTS — TAB-SEPARATED (13 columns)

Team1Side1Split1Record1Win%1PPG1Team2Side2Split2Record2Win%2PPG2Relevance
RUSOFFENSEYPP < 6.00-4.00019.2SHDEFENSEYPP 6.0+0-5.00054.21.000
RUSOFFENSEYPP 6.0+5-01.00045.8SHDEFENSEYPP < 6.03-01.00023.01.000
RUSOFFENSEYPA < 8.00-3.00021.3SHDEFENSEYPA 8.0+1-5.16750.80.833
RUSOFFENSEYPA 8.0+5-1.83340.3SHDEFENSEYPA < 8.02-01.00017.50.833
RUSOFFENSERush Yds 150+5-1.83344.3SHDEFENSERush Yds < 1501-01.00014.00.833
RUSOFFENSETurnovers 1+1-4.20022.4SHDEFENSETurnovers < 10-5.00053.80.800
RUSOFFENSEYPC < 5.01-4.20023.6SHDEFENSEYPC 5.0+0-4.00057.50.800
RUSOFFENSEYPP < 7.01-4.20023.6SHDEFENSEYPP 7.0+0-4.00057.50.800
RUSOFFENSEYPC 5.0+4-01.00047.0SHDEFENSEYPC < 5.03-1.75027.50.750
RUSOFFENSEYPP 7.0+4-01.00047.0SHDEFENSEYPP < 7.03-1.75027.50.750
RUSOFFENSETurnovers < 14-01.00048.5SHDEFENSETurnovers 1+3-1.75031.80.750
SHOFFENSEYPP 6.0+3-1.75039.8RUSDEFENSEYPP < 6.01-01.00014.00.750
RUSOFFENSERush Yds < 1500-3.00013.3SHDEFENSERush Yds 150+2-5.28646.60.714
SHOFFENSERush Yds 100+3-6.33324.3RUSDEFENSERush Yds < 1001-01.0000.00.667
SHOFFENSEYPP < 6.00-5.00012.0RUSDEFENSEYPP 6.0+1-2.33330.30.667
SHOFFENSERush Yds < 1500-3.0008.7RUSDEFENSERush Yds 150+1-2.33335.00.667
SHOFFENSEYPC < 5.00-2.0006.5RUSDEFENSEYPC 5.0+1-2.33335.00.667
SHOFFENSEYPA 8.0+2-1.66743.7RUSDEFENSEYPA < 8.01-01.00014.00.667
RUSOFFENSERush Yds < 1000-3.00013.3SHDEFENSERush Yds 100+3-5.37542.50.625
RUSOFFENSEPass Yds < 2004-3.57132.6SHDEFENSEPass Yds 200+0-2.00052.00.571
SHOFFENSEYPC 5.0+3-4.42929.4RUSDEFENSEYPC < 5.01-01.0000.00.571
SHOFFENSEYPA < 8.01-5.16714.7RUSDEFENSEYPA 8.0+1-2.33330.30.500
SHOFFENSEYPP < 7.00-6.00015.8RUSDEFENSEYPP 7.0+1-1.50028.00.500
SHOFFENSERush Yds 150+3-3.50032.2RUSDEFENSERush Yds < 1501-01.0000.00.500
SHOFFENSEYPP 7.0+3-01.00041.3RUSDEFENSEYPP < 7.01-1.50024.50.500
SHOFFENSETurnovers 1+2-5.28621.1RUSDEFENSETurnovers < 11-2.33331.00.381
SHOFFENSETurnovers < 11-1.50035.5RUSDEFENSETurnovers 1+4-2.66721.80.167
RUSOFFENSEPass Yds 200+1-1.50039.0SHDEFENSEPass Yds < 2003-3.50039.30.000

Data Export 2 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)

TeamSideTypeStatOpponentWindow/MeetingsValueBaselineGamesBaselineAvgDeviation
RUSOFFENSEteamPass Yardslast 3111.09139.7-20.5%
RUSDEFENSEteamPointslast 732.0924.9+28.6%
RUSOFFENSEteamPointslast 323.7934.0-30.4%
RUSDEFENSEteamTurnoverslast 50.490.9-55.0%
RUSOFFENSEteamTurnoverslast 31.090.7+50.0%
RUSOFFENSEteamYPAlast 36.399.9-36.2%
SHDEFENSEteamPass Yardslast 3202.08157.5+28.3%
SHOFFENSEteamPass Yardslast 376.7961.3+25.0%
SHDEFENSEteamPointslast 359.0944.0+34.1%
SHOFFENSEteamPointslast 318.0924.3-26.0%
SHOFFENSEteamTurnoverslast 31.791.2+36.4%
SHDEFENSEteamYPClast 38.786.3+37.6%
SHOFFENSEteamYPClast 35.296.8-23.0%
SHDEFENSEteamYPPlast 39.687.4+29.7%
SH — ROSTER (32) 26-27
#NAMEPOSCLASS
QUARTERBACKS
4BRODY PROCTOR
PASS 19/28 · 67.9% · 224 YDS · 8.0 YPA · 1 TD · 2 INT · 74.7/G
RUSH 14 CAR · 41 YDS · 2.9 YPC · 1 TD · 13.7/G
QBJr.
RUNNING BACKS
5DEVIN WEBB
RUSH 19 CAR · 94 YDS · 4.9 YPC · 2 TD · 31.3/G
REC 1 REC · 10 YDS · 10.0 YPC · 0 TD · 3.3/G
FBSr.
6ASHER YOUNG
RUSH 11 CAR · 36 YDS · 3.3 YPC · 1 TD · 6.0/G
REC 1 REC · 7 YDS · 7.0 YPC · 0 TD · 1.2/G
DEF 9 TKL · 1.5 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
RBJr.
12KE'ANDRE HARRIS
RUSH 3 CAR · 45 YDS · 15.0 YPC · 0 TD · 5.0/G
DEF 30 TKL · 3.3 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
RBJr.
21LANE WARE
DEF 75 TKL · 8.3 TKL/G · 3 TFL · 1.5 SACKS · 0 INT
FBJr.
RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS
9BRANDON RUMFIELD
REC 5 REC · 74 YDS · 14.8 YPC · 0 TD · 24.7/G
WRSr.
13CASON COPELAND
REC 5 REC · 35 YDS · 7.0 YPC · 0 TD · 11.7/G
WRJr.
19CALEB OTUJOR
DEF 19 TKL · 2.7 TKL/G · 3 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
WRSr.
OFFENSIVE LINE
27A'LIJAH ALLEN
DEF 4 TKL · 4.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
CFr.
52SILAS MACKEY
DEF 13 TKL · 2.6 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
GSr.
77KYLER SHARP
DEF 4 TKL · 2.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
TJr.
DEFENSIVE LINE
24BROCK NORRIS
DEF 55 TKL · 6.1 TKL/G · 9 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DESr.
32RASHAD LEWIS
DEF 3 TKL · 3.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLFr.
50KEVIN JUAREZ PEREZ
DEF 11 TKL · 1.8 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DEJr.
55RYAN BARTON
DEF 49 TKL · 5.4 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.5 SACKS · 0 INT
DTJr.
LINEBACKERS
2JACOLE JACKSON
DEF 63 TKL · 7.0 TKL/G · 5 TFL · 1.5 SACKS · 0 INT
MLBSr.
7KAIDIN MINOR
DEF 55 TKL · 6.1 TKL/G · 2 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
OLBJr.
26QUINTON CUTLER
RUSH 11 CAR · 96 YDS · 8.7 YPC · 0 TD · 10.7/G
DEF 78 TKL · 8.7 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
ILBSr.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
14ISAIAH RYAN
DEF 29 TKL · 3.2 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 1 INT
CBSo.
15JERRY LASTER
RUSH 2 CAR · 0 YDS · 0.0 YPC · 0 TD · 0.0/G
REC 1 REC · -5 YDS · -5.0 YPC · 0 TD · -0.6/G
DEF 27 TKL · 3.4 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
CBSo.
OTHER / UNLISTED POSITION
8BRAILYNN THOMAS
RUSH 13 CAR · 176 YDS · 13.5 YPC · 2 TD · 88.0/G
REC 2 REC · 21 YDS · 10.5 YPC · 0 TD · 10.5/G
SBJr.
11KEILAN LOGAN
RUSH 3 CAR · 62 YDS · 20.7 YPC · 3 TD · 6.9/G
DEF 77 TKL · 8.6 TKL/G · 2 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
SBJr.
18JAYDEN RUNNELS
RUSH 8 CAR · 76 YDS · 9.5 YPC · 0 TD · 38.0/G
REC 4 REC · 82 YDS · 20.5 YPC · 1 TD · 41.0/G
SBSo.
RUS — ROSTER (39) 26-27
#NAMEPOSCLASS
QUARTERBACKS
14MICAH MCCOWN
RUSH 2 CAR · -7 YDS · -3.5 YPC · 0 TD · -7.0/G
QBJr.
RUNNING BACKS
1KICERIUN TEAGUE
RUSH 142 CAR · 851 YDS · 6.0 YPC · 12 TD · 94.6/G
REC 21 REC · 208 YDS · 9.9 YPC · 1 TD · 23.1/G
RBSo.
2CADEN CHRISTOPHER
RUSH 67 CAR · 516 YDS · 7.7 YPC · 5 TD · 73.7/G
REC 7 REC · 31 YDS · 4.4 YPC · 0 TD · 4.4/G
RBJr.
24TYRONE RUFF
RUSH 26 CAR · 226 YDS · 8.7 YPC · 1 TD · 56.5/G
RBSr.
33LAMODRICK CHARLES
RUSH 2 CAR · 5 YDS · 2.5 YPC · 0 TD · 5.0/G
RBSo.
40TENNYSON SUNDAY
RUSH 1 CAR · 3 YDS · 3.0 YPC · 0 TD · 0.5/G
DEF 34 TKL · 5.7 TKL/G · 3 TFL · 2.0 SACKS · 0 INT
FBJr.
RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS
3C.J. HUNT
DEF 69 TKL · 7.7 TKL/G · 11 TFL · 6.0 SACKS · 0 INT
WRJr.
4JEREMIAH GOODMAN
RUSH 1 CAR · 10 YDS · 10.0 YPC · 0 TD · 1.2/G
REC 1 REC · 10 YDS · 10.0 YPC · 0 TD · 1.2/G
DEF 37 TKL · 4.6 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
WRJr.
5TRENDAN BONIN
REC 11 REC · 235 YDS · 21.4 YPC · 4 TD · 26.1/G
DEF 16 TKL · 1.8 TKL/G · 2 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 1 INT
WRSr.
8JAYDEN BURTON
RUSH 1 CAR · 8 YDS · 8.0 YPC · 0 TD · 1.1/G
REC 24 REC · 395 YDS · 16.5 YPC · 5 TD · 56.4/G
WRJr.
9ELIJAH MCDUFF
REC 11 REC · 263 YDS · 23.9 YPC · 5 TD · 43.8/G
WRJr.
18STOVER EMERSON
REC 6 REC · 115 YDS · 19.2 YPC · 1 TD · 23.0/G
DEF 0 TKL · 0.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 1 INT
WRSo.
DEFENSIVE LINE
11AYDEN BRADLEY
DEF 50 TKL · 5.6 TKL/G · 3 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DTJr.
21JOSIAH GIVENS
DEF 48 TKL · 5.3 TKL/G · 7 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DESr.
22DANNY BOLTON
DEF 37 TKL · 4.6 TKL/G · 5 TFL · 2.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DTJr.
44ZACCIUS FRANCIS
DEF 57 TKL · 7.1 TKL/G · 11 TFL · 5.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DTSr.
50LAWSON GATES
DEF 3 TKL · 3.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DTJr.
LINEBACKERS
0TRENTON PEPIN
RUSH 1 CAR · 3 YDS · 3.0 YPC · 0 TD · 0.4/G
DEF 76 TKL · 10.9 TKL/G · 6 TFL · 2.0 SACKS · 0 INT
MLBJr.
6DAMIAN REGGIE
DEF 60 TKL · 7.5 TKL/G · 8 TFL · 2.0 SACKS · 2 INT
OLBJr.
10JOSIAH FRANCIS
DEF 71 TKL · 8.9 TKL/G · 2 TFL · 1.5 SACKS · 0 INT
OLBJr.
15ALEX CARSON
DEF 3 TKL · 3.0 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBSr.
17JULIAN VASQUEZ
DEF 4 TKL · 1.3 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBSr.
20CHRISTIAN SANCHEZ
DEF 12 TKL · 3.0 TKL/G · 2 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
MLBSr.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
12AIDEN ADAMS
DEF 47 TKL · 5.2 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
FSSr.
13ISIAH LANDON
DEF 12 TKL · 2.4 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DBJr.
16CAMDEN RUSHING
REC 1 REC · 1 YDS · 1.0 YPC · 0 TD · 0.1/G
DEF 19 TKL · 2.1 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DBJr.
SPECIAL TEAMS
23WALKER BATEMAN
DEF 3 TKL · 0.8 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
KJr.
OTHER / UNLISTED POSITION
7MALEKI OVERSTREET
PASS 81/147 · 55.1% · 1,257 YDS · 8.6 YPA · 16 TD · 4 INT · 139.7/G
RUSH 81 CAR · 220 YDS · 2.7 YPC · 2 TD · 24.4/G
--Jr.
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED 11/07/2026 01:39