In short: UNLV FBS college football, 2026 season: 4-3 (Mountain West). Last game: L 31-41 vs Air Force on October 17, 2026. Next: vs NIU, October 31, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, the CFB Pirate rating and projections.
The number to watch when UNLV meets NIU is UNLV's scoring. UNLV averaged 16.0 points per game over its first 3 games (1-2), #131 in FBS in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Rebels have averaged 30.2 points per game, an 89% rise, #41 in FBS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: UNLV's last 4 opponents have averaged 24.1 points per game, a #69 scoring defense in FBS on the season, against 26.3 points per game, #93 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (24.1 points per game), UNLV scored 25% more than those defenses usually allow. Meanwhile, NIU's defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Huskies have allowed 40.0 points per game over their last 4 games (0-4), #134 in FBS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in FBS (26.1 points per game on the season, which would rank #90). Against those norms, NIU allowed 53% more than those offenses usually score. On paper, that is a matchup that favors UNLV.
The red zone could decide UNLV's next game, against NIU, and the recent returns favor NIU. UNLV allowed touchdowns on 38.5% of opponents' red-zone trips (5 of 13) over its first 3 games (1-2), #24 in FBS through those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (3-1), the Rebels have allowed touchdowns on 57.1% of opponents' red-zone trips (8 of 14), a 49% rise, #71 in FBS through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: UNLV's last 4 opponents have averaged 61.5%, a #61 red-zone offense in FBS on the season, against 56.3%, #81 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (61.5%), UNLV held those offenses 7% below their usual red-zone touchdown rate. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Meanwhile, NIU's red-zone offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Huskies have scored touchdowns on 45.5% of their red-zone trips (5 of 11) over their last 4 games (0-4), #98 in FBS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of red-zone defenses in FBS (52.3% on the season, which would rank #53). Against those norms, NIU finished red-zone trips 13% less often than those defenses usually allow. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.
NOTES
The biggest shift in UNLV's season has come in its red-zone offense. UNLV scored touchdowns on 41.7% of its red-zone trips (5 of 12) over its first 4 games (2-2), #122 in FBS within that period. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), the Rebels have scored touchdowns on 54.5% of their red-zone trips (6 of 11), a 31% rise, #72 in FBS across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: UNLV's last 3 opponents have averaged 52.1%, a #53 red-zone defense in FBS on the season, against 58.5%, #86 for the first 4. On the season, UNLV ranks #111 in FBS in red-zone offense. The trend lines up well against NIU, whose red-zone defense ranks just #121 of 137 (67.7%).
The Rebels converted 37% of third downs (17-for-46) over their first 3 games (1-2), #106 in FBS during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), UNLV has converted 48.1% of third downs (26-for-54), a 30% rise, #26 in FBS during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 37.3% on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (38.7%), UNLV converted third downs 24% more often than those defenses usually allow. On the season, the Rebels rank #58 in FBS in third-down offense. The trend lines up well against NIU, whose third-down defense ranks just #138 of 138 (61.8%).
UNLV's third-down defense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. UNLV allowed 44.1% of third downs (26-for-59) over its first 4 games (2-2), #110 in FBS during that stretch. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), the Rebels have allowed 33.3% of third downs (13-for-39), a 24% drop, #23 in FBS over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 44.3% on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (44.3%), UNLV held those offenses 25% below their usual third-down rate. On the season, UNLV ranks #83 in FBS in third-down defense. The trend lines up well against NIU, whose third-down offense ranks just #130 of 138 (31.8%).
Something changed for UNLV's run defense after the first 4 games of the season. The Rebels allowed 4.4 yards per carry (603 yards on 137 rushes) over their first 4 games (2-2), #92 in FBS over that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), UNLV has allowed 5.4 yards per carry (675 yards on 124 rushes), a 24% rise, #117 in FBS over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 4.4 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.3 yards per carry), UNLV allowed 27% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. On the season, the Rebels rank #113 in FBS in run defense. NIU's ground game, #123 of 138 (3.6 yards per carry), could be the get-right matchup UNLV needs. Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings call it close: UNLV's front and NIU's offensive line grade out about even.
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
UNLV has played a middle-of-the-road schedule in the pool so far (#77 of 138), and what is left is a softer-than-average slate (#107 of 138): the hard part is behind it.
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#77 of 138
avg opponent rating +37.5 over 7 games · 0 vs top-25 FBS
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#107 of 138
avg opponent rating +31.8 over 5 games · 0 vs top-25
Memphis L 21-27@Hawaii W 21-6@North Te… L 6-44@Akron W 38-10Californ… W 39-31North Da… W 13-7@Air Force L 31-41NIUWyoming@New Mexi…@San Jose…Nevada
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 17 game; last updated Oct 19; roster and numbers checked Sep 17.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 67.3/100 (+24 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 85.7/100 (+65 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 64.7/100 (-15 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 53.1/100 (-5 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-10-31
vs
NIU
0-7
15.1
2026-11-07
vs
WYOMING
5-3
19.5
2026-11-14
at
NEW MEXICO
5-1
39.7
2026-11-21
at
SAN JOSE ST.
4-4
20.4
2026-11-28
vs
NEVADA
3-4
26.3
LAST YEAR
UNL finished 2025 at 10-4. Made the playoffs (4 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 38-10 over HAWAII (HAWAII finished 69% that season). Toughest loss: 35-40 to NEW MEXICO (5-point margin).
• [CLUB] Unlv has gone 4 straight games rushing for 100+ yards (September 26, 2026 through October 17, 2026), going 3-1 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2025 (5 games).
• [CLUB] Unlv has gone 4 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers (September 26, 2026 through October 17, 2026), going 3-1 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2026 (8 games).
• [CLUB] Unlv has gone 4 straight games holding the opponent under 8.0 yards per attempt (September 26, 2026 through October 17, 2026), going 3-1 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2025 (8 games).
• [PLAYER] Kayden Mcgee has 3 touchdown catches over his last 3 games (1.0 a game, October 3, 2026 through October 17, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Jake Pope has 35 tackles over his last 3 games (11.7 a game, October 3, 2026 through October 17, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Tre Fulton has 24 tackles over his last 3 games (8.0 a game, October 3, 2026 through October 17, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Jai'den Thomas has never had a game recording 100+ receiving yards for Unlv, over a 44-game career on record. His career high is 65, set November 1, 2025 against New Mexico (L, 35-40).
• [PLAYER] Kayden Mcgee has never had a game recording 100+ receiving yards for Unlv, over a 14-game career on record. His career high is 99, set October 17, 2026 against Air Force (L, 31-41).
• [PLAYER] Jai'den Thomas has gone 17 straight games without making 10 or more tackles. The last time he made 10 tackles was December 18, 2024 against California (W, 24-13) — 11 tackles.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
UNL HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• UNL rushes for 100+ yards (.442), but most recently lost to Air Force when doing so
• UNL holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.542), and has won 15 straight when doing so
• UNL averages 7.0+ yards per play (.838), and has won 9 straight when doing so
• UNL holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.510), but most recently lost to Air Force when doing so
• UNL holds its opponents under 6.1 yards per play (UNL's own median) (.537)
• UNL holds its opponents under 179.0 rushing yards (UNL's own median) (.533)
• UNL is 65-47 (.580) when it wins the turnover battle
• UNL holds its opponents under 7.7 yards per attempt (UNL's own median) (.519)
• UNL holds its opponents under 4.7 yards per carry (UNL's own median) (.515)
• UNL rushes for 153.5+ yards (UNL's own median) (.515)
UNL's defense has averaged 22.8 points allowed per game over their last 12 games. Their 273-game average is 32.5 points allowed per game. (-30%)
UNL's defense has averaged 6.1 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 271-game average is 8.1 YPA. (-25%)
UNL's defense has averaged 179.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 272-game average is 235.4 pass yards per game. (-24%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where UNLV sits among 138 FBS teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 76.5, Defense Grade 58.9.
RUSH YARDS ALLOWED / GAME: UNLV VS THE FBS
UNLV ranks #112 of 138 FBS teams in rushing yards allowed per game (182.6) -- a weakness worth a look.
UNLV: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 4 seasons on file -- -3.9 in 2022 to 16.2 in 2025.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
1.78 points per offensive possession (89 possessions on file, 2026)
Late & close (4th quarter or later, within one score): 30.6% success rate, 16.3% explosive play rate (49 snaps)
Down & Distance
Plays
Play-Type Mix
1 & short
1
rush 100%
1 & medium
4
rush 75%, pass 25%
1 & long
189
rush 63%, pass 35%, sack 1%
2 & short
19
rush 58%, pass 42%
2 & medium
49
rush 61%, pass 35%, sack 4%
2 & long
79
rush 56%, pass 42%, sack 3%
3 & short
22
rush 73%, pass 23%, sack 5%
3 & medium
40
pass 65%, rush 25%, sack 10%
3 & long
38
pass 68%, rush 24%, sack 8%
4 & short
8
rush 62%, pass 25%, sack 12%
4 & medium
4
pass 50%, sack 25%, rush 25%
4 & long
2
pass 100%
GARBAGE TIME PROFILE
2 of 7 games on file this season hit garbage time
Average margin: +0.4 final vs. +1.9 before garbage time — this team gets padded on (-1.4 pts/game)
Biggest swing: 17 points, vs. North Texas on 2026-09-12 (-38 final, -21 real)
See the Garbage Time Reality Check page for the full leaderboard. This is informational only — it never changes this team's ranking or projection elsewhere on the site.
ADVANCED PLAYER STATS
JACKSON ARNOLD (QB): +0.01 EPA/dropback, 35.9% success rate, 92 dropbacks
JACKSON ARNOLD (RB): 239 rush yds, 40 carries, 42.5% success rate
Final 2 Minutes (DEFENSE): LUCAS CONTI — 2 tackles
ADVANCED METRICS EXPLAINED (9)
EPA / Dropback
Expected Points Added, averaged over every dropback (pass attempt or sack) that has a value on file. Positive means the play typically moved the team closer to scoring more than an average play in that situation would; negative means it cost expected points.
Inputs: Each play's EPA (from CFBD's own model for most FBS/FCS plays, or this project's own trained model for a smaller share of other games) averaged over the QB's dropbacks. The dropback count with an EPA value on file (not every play has one) is always shown alongside the rate, and boards require at least 20 such plays before a QB qualifies -- a thin sample was found live to distort rankings otherwise.
Passing Success Rate
The share of dropbacks that were 'successful' by a standard down-based yardstick, regardless of whether EPA is available for that play.
Inputs: Gained at least 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or the full distance (or a touchdown) on 3rd/4th -- computed from down, distance, yards gained and touchdown, all structured fields.
Rushing Success Rate
The same down-based success standard as passing success rate, applied to a player's carries.
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the ball carrier.
Receiving Success Rate
The same down-based success standard, applied to a player's targets (thrown to him, complete or not).
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the targeted receiver.
3rd Down Splits
How a player performed specifically on 3rd down plays this season -- success rate, touchdown rate, and the underlying counting stats, isolated from every other down.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 3 and this player was involved (passer, rusher, receiver, or a tackle/sack/INT/fumble recovery on defense).
4th Down Splits
The same idea as 3rd Down Splits, isolated to 4th down plays -- the highest-leverage down in football.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 4 and this player was involved.
Red Zone Splits
How a player performed once his team's offense (or the opponent's, for a defender) reached inside the 20-yard line.
Inputs: Every play on file within 20 yards of the goal line (`distance_to_goal <= 20`) this player was involved in. COVERAGE CAVEAT: true field position is only recorded for about a third of plays leaguewide, concentrated in FBS/FCS games -- a player whose games come from a source without it will show thin or missing red-zone splits even if he played plenty of red-zone snaps. This is a gap in the underlying play-by-play data, not a sign he didn't play there.
Final 2 Minutes of a Half
How a player performed in the last two minutes of either half -- the clock-management, high-pressure stretch at the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters.
Inputs: Every play on file in the 2nd or 4th quarter with 2:00 or less on the clock this player was involved in. Same field-position/clock coverage caveat as Red Zone Splits above -- roughly a third of plays leaguewide carry a usable clock reading, concentrated in FBS/FCS games.
What is "garbage time"?
A 7-tier rule (bigger lead required as the clock runs down) that flags plays happening in a game that is no longer competitive -- e.g. a 30+ point lead right after halftime, or a 12+ point lead inside the final 3 minutes.
Inputs: Quarter, game clock, and the score of both teams at the time of the play. Garbage-time plays are not thrown out -- they count for 35% of a normal play in every "garbage-time-adjusted" figure, so a player who pads stats once a game is decided shows up as such rather than being invisible.
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED
10/30/2026 08:18
