In short: South Carolina FBS college football, 2026 season: 5-3 (SEC). Last game: W 42-25 vs Oklahoma on October 31, 2026. Next: vs Texas A&M, November 7, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, the CFB Pirate rating and projections.
The number to watch when South Carolina meets Texas A&M is South Carolina's scoring defense. South Carolina allowed 16.7 points per game over its first 3 games (2-1), #35 in FBS in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (3-2), the Gamecocks have allowed 30.4 points per game, an 82% rise, #100 in FBS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: South Carolina's last 5 opponents have averaged 32.2 points per game, a #47 offense in FBS on the season, against 21.9 points per game, #110 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (32.2 points per game), South Carolina held those offenses 6% below what they usually score. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Meanwhile, Texas A&M's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Aggies have averaged 21.4 points per game over their last 5 games (2-3), #102 in FBS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in FBS (23.3 points per game on the season, which would rank #59). Against those norms, Texas A&M scored 8% less than those defenses usually allow. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. South Carolina is 5-0 this season when it holds opponents under 29, and 0-3 when it doesn't.
The battle on the ground could decide South Carolina's next game, against Texas A&M, and the recent returns favor Texas A&M. South Carolina averaged 6.6 yards per carry (1,280 yards on 195 rushes) over its first 5 games (2-3), #2 in FBS through those games. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (3-0), the Gamecocks have averaged 4.2 yards per carry (460 yards on 110 rushes), a 36% drop, #66 in FBS through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 3.9 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (3.9 yards per carry), South Carolina ran for 7% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Meanwhile, Texas A&M's run defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Aggies have allowed 4.0 yards per carry (455 yards on 114 rushes) over their last 3 games (1-2), #58 in FBS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of rushing attacks in FBS (4.5 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #69). Against those norms, Texas A&M held those rushing attacks 11% below their usual yards per carry. Texas A&M offers South Carolina a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings call it close: South Carolina's offensive line and Texas A&M's front grade out about even.
NOTES
The biggest worry in South Carolina's season has been the direction of its offense. South Carolina averaged 45.3 points per game over its first 3 games (2-1), #14 in FBS within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (3-2), the Gamecocks have averaged 31.8 points per game, a 30% drop, #31 in FBS across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: South Carolina's last 5 opponents have averaged 22.2 points per game, a #53 scoring defense in FBS on the season, against 30.3 points per game, #115 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (22.2 points per game), South Carolina scored 43% more than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, South Carolina ranks #18 in FBS in scoring. It won't get any easier against Texas A&M, whose defense ranks #27 in FBS (18.9 points per game).
South Carolina's third-down defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Gamecocks allowed 31.7% of third downs (13-for-41) over their first 3 games (2-1), #38 in FBS during those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (3-2), South Carolina has allowed 40.4% of third downs (21-for-52), a 27% rise, #76 in FBS during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 40.4% on the season. On the season, the Gamecocks rank #52 in FBS in third-down defense. Texas A&M's third-down offense sits in the middle of the pack, #53 in FBS (43.2%).
Something changed for South Carolina's red-zone offense after its first 4 games. South Carolina scored touchdowns on 62.5% of its red-zone trips (10 of 16) over its first 4 games (2-2), #62 in FBS during that stretch. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Gamecocks have scored touchdowns on 75% of their red-zone trips (9 of 12), a 20% rise, #14 in FBS over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: South Carolina's last 4 opponents have averaged 51%, a #48 red-zone defense in FBS on the season, against 59.4%, #91 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (51%), South Carolina finished red-zone trips 47% more often than those defenses usually allow. On the season, South Carolina ranks #24 in FBS in red-zone offense. Texas A&M's red-zone defense sits in the middle of the pack, #53 in FBS (52.4%).
One of South Carolina's most reliable areas lately has been its third-down offense. The Gamecocks converted 42.6% of third downs (23-for-54) over their first 4 games (2-2), #67 in FBS over that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), South Carolina has converted 51.1% of third downs (23-for-45), a 20% rise, #21 in FBS over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 39.6% on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (38.3%), South Carolina converted third downs 33% more often than those defenses usually allow. On the season, the Gamecocks rank #30 in FBS in third-down offense. That form gets a real test against Texas A&M, whose third-down defense ranks #19 in FBS (32.3%).
South Carolina allowed 8.0 yards per pass attempt (884 yards on 111 attempts) over its first 4 games (2-2), #112 in FBS in that timeframe. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Gamecocks have allowed 6.4 yards per pass attempt (919 yards on 143 attempts), a 19% drop, #33 in FBS in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.7 yards per attempt on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.5 yards per attempt), South Carolina held those passing attacks 14% below their usual yards per attempt. On the season, South Carolina ranks #69 in FBS in pass defense. The trend lines up well against Texas A&M, whose passing game ranks just #123 of 138 (6.3 yards per attempt). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings call it close: South Carolina's front and Texas A&M's offensive line grade out about even.
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
South Carolina has played a tougher-than-average schedule in the pool so far (#28 of 138), and what is left is one of the toughest slates (#17 of 138).
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#28 of 138
avg opponent rating +44.6 over 8 games · 4 vs top-25 FBS
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#17 of 138
avg opponent rating +54.2 over 4 games · 2 vs top-25
Kent St. W 57-0Towson W 45-9Mississi… L 34-41@Alabama L 18-49Kentucky L 34-35@Florida W 38-19Tennessee W 27-24@Oklahoma W 42-25Texas A&M@ArkansasGeorgia@Clemson
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 31 game; last updated Nov 1; roster and numbers checked Sep 17.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 86.5/100 (+68 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 84.5/100 (+62 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 86.3/100 (-45 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 88.1/100 (-67 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-11-07
vs
TEXAS A&M
4-4
28.2
2026-11-14
at
ARKANSAS
3-5
19.6
2026-11-21
vs
GEORGIA
7-1
41.0
2026-11-28
at
CLEMSON
5-3
23.2
LAST YEAR
SC finished 2025 at 4-8. Made the playoffs (2 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 38-10 over SOUTH CAROLINA ST. (SOUTH CAROLINA ST. finished 77% that season). Toughest loss: 30-31 to TEXAS A&M (1-point margin).
• [CLUB] South Carolina has won 3 straight, and a win would make it 4 in a row. The last time they won 4 or more in a row was 2024, a run of 6.
• [CLUB] South Carolina is 37-0 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points in the games on file (37 such games).
• [CLUB] South Carolina has gone 11 straight games holding the opponent under 5.0 yards per carry (November 15, 2025 through October 31, 2026), going 6-5 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2024 (17 games).
• [CLUB] South Carolina has gone 8 straight games rushing for 100+ yards (September 5, 2026 through October 31, 2026), going 5-3 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2012 (10 games).
• [CLUB] South Carolina has gone 6 straight games throwing for 200+ yards (September 19, 2026 through October 31, 2026), going 3-3 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2023 (10 games).
• [CLUB] South Carolina has gone 4 straight games holding the opponent under 8.0 yards per attempt (October 3, 2026 through October 31, 2026), going 3-1 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2025 (16 games).
• [PLAYER] Lanorris Sellers has gone 6 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 7 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, during the 2026 season.
• [PLAYER] Lanorris Sellers has 5 rushing touchdowns over his last 3 games (1.7 a game, October 10, 2026 through October 31, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Mazeo Bennett Jr. has 3 touchdown catches over his last 3 games (1.0 a game, October 10, 2026 through October 31, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Fred "Jayr" Johnson has 30 tackles over his last 3 games (10.0 a game, October 10, 2026 through October 31, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Justin Okoronkwo has 25 tackles over his last 3 games (8.3 a game, October 10, 2026 through October 31, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch since the 32 he had from September 19, 2026 through October 3, 2026.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
SC HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• SC rushes for 100+ yards (.726), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• SC holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.695), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• SC holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.659), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• SC holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards (.742), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• SC's defense has limited opponents to under 5.0 YPC in 11 straight games (11/15/2025-10/31/2026), going 6-5 over that stretch.
• SC's defense has averaged 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 284-game average is 1.8 takeaways per game. (-60%)
• SC's offense has exceeded 200 pass yds in 6 straight games (09/19/2026-10/31/2026), going 3-3 over that stretch.
• SC holds its opponents under 5.3 yards per play (SC's own median) (.775)
• SC's offense has averaged 208.9 rush yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 284-game average is 143.1 rush yards per game. (+46%)
• SC is 93-20 (.823) when it wins the turnover battle
• SC holds its opponents under 144.0 rushing yards (SC's own median) (.771)
• SC's offense has averaged 5.4 YPC over their last 10 games. Their 284-game average is 3.9 YPC. (+37%)
• SC averages 7.5+ yards per attempt (SC's own median) (.725)
• SC holds its opponents under 4.0 yards per carry (SC's own median) (.704)
• SC's offense has averaged 36.0 points scored per game over their last 10 games. Their 284-game average is 26.6 points scored per game. (+35%)
SC's defense has averaged 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 284-game average is 1.8 takeaways per game. (-60%)
SC's defense has averaged 111.4 rush yards per game over their last 10 games. Their 284-game average is 159.6 rush yards per game. (-30%)
SC's defense has averaged 30.4 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 284-game average is 23.6 points allowed per game. (+29%)
SC's defense has averaged 256.8 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 284-game average is 207.8 pass yards per game. (+24%)
SC's defense has averaged 3.3 YPC over their last 10 games. Their 284-game average is 4.1 YPC. (-20%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where SOUTH CAROLINA sits among 138 FBS teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 87.0, Defense Grade 87.0.
YARDS / CARRY: SOUTH CAROLINA VS THE FBS
SOUTH CAROLINA ranks #7 of 138 FBS teams in yards per carry (5.70) -- a strength worth a look.
SOUTH CAROLINA: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 4 seasons on file -- 15.6 in 2022 to 18.3 in 2025.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
2.61 points per offensive possession (89 possessions on file, 2026)
Late & close (4th quarter or later, within one score): 43.6% success rate, 15.4% explosive play rate (39 snaps)
Down & Distance
Plays
Play-Type Mix
1 & short
3
rush 100%
1 & medium
13
rush 62%, pass 31%, sack 8%
1 & long
201
rush 52%, pass 48%, sack 0%
2 & short
22
rush 59%, pass 41%
2 & medium
51
rush 55%, pass 45%
2 & long
83
pass 52%, rush 43%, sack 5%
3 & short
26
rush 50%, pass 50%
3 & medium
27
pass 59%, rush 33%, sack 7%
3 & long
46
pass 54%, rush 33%, sack 13%
4 & short
11
rush 73%, pass 18%, sack 9%
4 & medium
4
pass 75%, rush 25%
GARBAGE TIME PROFILE
4 of 7 games on file this season hit garbage time
Average margin: +10.9 final vs. +6.7 before garbage time — this team pads its margins (+4.1 pts/game)
Biggest swing: 28 points, vs. Kent St. on 2026-09-05 (+57 final, +29 real)
See the Garbage Time Reality Check page for the full leaderboard. This is informational only — it never changes this team's ranking or projection elsewhere on the site.
Expected Points Added, averaged over every dropback (pass attempt or sack) that has a value on file. Positive means the play typically moved the team closer to scoring more than an average play in that situation would; negative means it cost expected points.
Inputs: Each play's EPA (from CFBD's own model for most FBS/FCS plays, or this project's own trained model for a smaller share of other games) averaged over the QB's dropbacks. The dropback count with an EPA value on file (not every play has one) is always shown alongside the rate, and boards require at least 20 such plays before a QB qualifies -- a thin sample was found live to distort rankings otherwise.
Passing Success Rate
The share of dropbacks that were 'successful' by a standard down-based yardstick, regardless of whether EPA is available for that play.
Inputs: Gained at least 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or the full distance (or a touchdown) on 3rd/4th -- computed from down, distance, yards gained and touchdown, all structured fields.
Rushing Success Rate
The same down-based success standard as passing success rate, applied to a player's carries.
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the ball carrier.
Receiving Success Rate
The same down-based success standard, applied to a player's targets (thrown to him, complete or not).
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the targeted receiver.
3rd Down Splits
How a player performed specifically on 3rd down plays this season -- success rate, touchdown rate, and the underlying counting stats, isolated from every other down.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 3 and this player was involved (passer, rusher, receiver, or a tackle/sack/INT/fumble recovery on defense).
4th Down Splits
The same idea as 3rd Down Splits, isolated to 4th down plays -- the highest-leverage down in football.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 4 and this player was involved.
Red Zone Splits
How a player performed once his team's offense (or the opponent's, for a defender) reached inside the 20-yard line.
Inputs: Every play on file within 20 yards of the goal line (`distance_to_goal <= 20`) this player was involved in. COVERAGE CAVEAT: true field position is only recorded for about a third of plays leaguewide, concentrated in FBS/FCS games -- a player whose games come from a source without it will show thin or missing red-zone splits even if he played plenty of red-zone snaps. This is a gap in the underlying play-by-play data, not a sign he didn't play there.
Final 2 Minutes of a Half
How a player performed in the last two minutes of either half -- the clock-management, high-pressure stretch at the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters.
Inputs: Every play on file in the 2nd or 4th quarter with 2:00 or less on the clock this player was involved in. Same field-position/clock coverage caveat as Red Zone Splits above -- roughly a third of plays leaguewide carry a usable clock reading, concentrated in FBS/FCS games.
What is "garbage time"?
A 7-tier rule (bigger lead required as the clock runs down) that flags plays happening in a game that is no longer competitive -- e.g. a 30+ point lead right after halftime, or a 12+ point lead inside the final 3 minutes.
Inputs: Quarter, game clock, and the score of both teams at the time of the play. Garbage-time plays are not thrown out -- they count for 35% of a normal play in every "garbage-time-adjusted" figure, so a player who pads stats once a game is decided shows up as such rather than being invisible.
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED
11/06/2026 07:02
