In short: Vasquez Mustangs high school football (Acton, CA), 2026 season: 2-7 in the Cottonwood League. Last game: L 7-30 vs Notre Dame on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Arrowhead Christian, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The number to watch when Vasquez meets Arrowhead Christian is Vasquez's scoring. Vasquez averaged 19.8 points per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #270 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (0-5), the Mustangs have averaged 5.4 points per game, a 73% drop, #390 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Vasquez's last 5 opponents have averaged 17.5 points per game, a #100 scoring defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 19.7 points per game, #140 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (17.5 points per game), Vasquez scored 69% less than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #253 in CIF-SS, well above the first 4 (#336), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Vasquez was held to 14 points or fewer 5 times in those games, including 0 against Ontario Christian on 9/25. Meanwhile, Arrowhead Christian's defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Eagles have allowed 34.0 points per game over their last 5 games (1-4), #326 in CIF-SS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in CIF-SS (26.6 points per game on the season, which would rank #176). Against those norms, Arrowhead Christian allowed 28% more than those offenses usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #300 in CIF-SS, a lower level of competition. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.
The turnover battle could decide Vasquez's next game, against Arrowhead Christian, and the recent returns favor Vasquez. Vasquez committed 2.5 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #368 in CIF-SS through those games. In the 5 games since that slow start (0-5), the Mustangs have committed 0.8 giveaways per game, a 70% drop, #80 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Vasquez's last 5 opponents have averaged 1.4 per game, a #175 defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 1.8 per game, #74 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.4 per game), Vasquez turned it over 46% less than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #253 in CIF-SS, well above the first 4 (#336), which makes the improvement more impressive. Meanwhile, Arrowhead Christian's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Eagles have forced 1.2 takeaways per game over their last 5 games (1-4), #199 in CIF-SS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in CIF-SS (1.1 per game on the season, which would rank #144). Against those norms, Arrowhead Christian forced 10% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #300 in CIF-SS, a lower level of competition. Arrowhead Christian offers Vasquez a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Vasquez's season has been the direction of its defense. Vasquez allowed 25.5 points per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #247 in CIF-SS within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (0-5), the Mustangs have allowed 37.2 points per game, a 46% rise, #347 in CIF-SS across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Vasquez's last 5 opponents have averaged 29.5 points per game, a #132 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 24.8 points per game, #202 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (29.5 points per game), Vasquez allowed 26% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #253 in CIF-SS, well above the first 4 (#336), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Vasquez ranks #328 in CIF-SS in scoring defense. Arrowhead Christian's offense, #341 of 404 (14.4 points per game), could be the get-right matchup Vasquez needs. Vasquez is 2-0 this season when it holds opponents under 15, and 0-7 when it doesn't.
TIDBITS (6 found)
• Club Vasquez has lost 5 straight, and a loss would make it 6 in a row. The last time they lost 6 or more in a row was 2021, a run of 24.
• Club The last time Vasquez went a game throwing for 200+ yards was October 13, 2023 against Desert Christian Academy (L, 12-34). Since then Vasquez has gone 31 straight games being held under 200 passing yards, a school-record 31 straight in the 18 seasons on record.
• Club The last time Vasquez went a game holding the opponent under 6.0 yards per play was October 17, 2025 against Nuview Bridge (W, 50-6). Since then Vasquez has gone 12 straight games allowing 6.0+ yards per play, matching the program record of 12 straight on record.
• Club Vasquez is 14-2 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points. Vasquez's last loss when holding the opponent under 10 points was October 10, 2025 against St. Bernard (L, 0-2).
• Player Zach Chambers has never had a game rushing for 100+ yards for Vasquez, over a 23-game career on record. His career high is 63, set October 11, 2024 against Desert Chapel (W, 41-6).
• Player Zach Chambers has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for Vasquez, over a 23-game career on record. His career high is 7, set September 18, 2025 against San Jacinto Valley Academy (W, 38-13).
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 9 game; last updated Oct 26; roster and numbers checked Sep 3.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 5/9, defense 8/9, sacks/INT 5/9, sacks allowed 8/9, turnovers 8/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 2.7/100 (-140 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 37.1/100 (-38 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 23.6/100 (+36 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 30.4/100 (+37 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
VAS finished 2025 at 7-3. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 38-13 over SAN JACINTO VALLEY ACADEMY (SAN JACINTO VALLEY ACADEMY finished 60% that season). Toughest loss: 0-2 to ST. BERNARD (2-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
VAS HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• VAS forces 2+ takeaways (.999), and has won 9 straight when doing so
• VAS rushes for 150+ yards (.750), but most recently lost to Indian Springs when doing so
• VAS averages 7.0+ yards per play (.999), and has won 7 straight when doing so
• VAS averages 5.0+ yards per carry (.786), but most recently lost to Indian Springs when doing so
• VAS's offense has averaged 84.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 20-game average is 19.5 pass yards per game. (+331%)
• VAS's offense has averaged 10.5 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 20-game average is 3.2 YPA. (+231%)
• VAS's offense has averaged 8.3 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 23-game average is 239.5 rush yards per game. (-97%)
• VAS's offense has averaged 0.3 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 23-game average is 5.8 YPC. (-95%)
• VAS's offense has averaged 39.0 total yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 23-game average is 256.4 total yards per game. (-85%)
• VAS's offense has averaged 1.3 YPP over their last 5 games. Their 23-game average is 5.7 YPP. (-78%)
• VAS's defense has averaged 0.2 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 27-game average is 1.1 takeaways per game. (-78%)
• VAS's defense has averaged 216.0 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 26-game average is 122.4 pass yards per game. (+76%)
• VAS's defense has averaged 14.4 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 26-game average is 8.2 YPA. (+76%)
• VAS's offense has averaged 5.4 points scored per game over their last 5 games. Their 29-game average is 20.6 points scored per game. (-74%)
• VAS's offense has averaged 1.6 giveaways per game over their last 10 games. Their 27-game average is 0.9 giveaways per game. (+68%)
VAS's defense has averaged 0.2 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 27-game average is 1.1 takeaways per game. (-78%)
VAS's defense has averaged 216.0 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 26-game average is 122.4 pass yards per game. (+76%)
VAS's defense has averaged 14.4 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 26-game average is 8.2 YPA. (+76%)
VAS's defense has averaged 37.2 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 29-game average is 23.1 points allowed per game. (+61%)
VAS's defense has averaged 11.7 YPP over their last 5 games. Their 26-game average is 7.7 YPP. (+52%)
VAS's defense has averaged 9.4 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 26-game average is 6.4 YPC. (+47%)
VAS's defense has averaged 336.8 total yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 26-game average is 249.9 total yards per game. (+35%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where VASQUEZ sits among 399 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 43.0, Defense Grade 36.5.
YARDS / PLAY: VASQUEZ VS THE SECTION
VASQUEZ ranks #353 of 356 section teams in yards per play (2.44) -- a weakness worth a look.
VASQUEZ: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -30.6 in 2022 to -34.7 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
