In short: Terra Nova Tigers high school football (Pacifica, CA), 2026 season: 3-5. Last game: L 36-45 vs Santa Clara on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Jefferson, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The turnover battle could decide Terra Nova's next game, against Jefferson, and the recent returns favor Terra Nova. Terra Nova forced 1.0 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (0-4), #42 in Section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Tigers have forced 2.0 takeaways per game, a 100% rise, #16 in Section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Terra Nova's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.0 per game, a #30 offense in Section on the season, against 1.7 per game, #75 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.0 per game), Terra Nova forced 108% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #68 in Section, well below the first 4 (#45), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Jefferson's ball security has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Grizzlies have committed 1.0 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (3-1), #31 in Section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in Section (1.0 per game on the season, which would rank #53). Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #63 in Section, a lower level of competition. Jefferson offers Terra Nova a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
The number to watch when Terra Nova meets Jefferson is Terra Nova's scoring. Terra Nova averaged 22.2 points per game over its first 4 games (0-4), #45 in Section through those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Tigers have averaged 38.2 points per game, a 72% rise, #10 in Section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Terra Nova's last 4 opponents have averaged 26.5 points per game, a #63 scoring defense in Section on the season, against 31.2 points per game, #81 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (26.5 points per game), Terra Nova scored 44% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #68 in Section, well below the first 4 (#45), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Jefferson's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Grizzlies have allowed 23.2 points per game over their last 4 games (3-1), #49 in Section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in Section (21.1 points per game on the season, which would rank #54). Against those norms, Jefferson allowed 10% more than those offenses usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #63 in Section, a lower level of competition. Jefferson offers Terra Nova a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Terra Nova is 3-3 this season when it scores 25 or more, and 0-2 when it doesn't.
NOTES
The biggest shift in Terra Nova's season has come in its ground game. Terra Nova averaged 4.2 yards per carry (429 yards on 102 rushes) over its first 4 games (0-4), #55 in Section within that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Tigers have averaged 5.7 yards per carry (554 yards on 97 rushes), a 36% rise, #29 in Section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Terra Nova's last 4 opponents have averaged 5.8 yards per carry, a #60 run defense in Section on the season, against 6.5 yards per carry, #76 for the first 4. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #68 in Section, well below the first 4 (#45), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Terra Nova ranks #44 in Section in rushing. Jefferson's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #28 in Section (4.7 yards per carry).
Terra Nova's passing game has come a long way since the season's early weeks. The Tigers averaged 7.6 yards per pass attempt (877 yards on 116 attempts) over their first 4 games (0-4), #36 in Section during those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), Terra Nova has averaged 9.8 yards per pass attempt (923 yards on 94 attempts), a 30% rise, #19 in Section during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 8.6 yards per attempt on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.5 yards per attempt), Terra Nova threw for 15% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #68 in Section, well below the first 4 (#45), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Tigers rank #27 in Section in passing. That form gets a real test against Jefferson, whose pass defense ranks #16 in Section (6.2 yards per attempt).
Something changed for Terra Nova's offense after its first 4 games. Terra Nova averaged 6.0 yards per play (1,306 yards on 218 snaps) over its first 4 games (0-4), #45 in Section during that stretch. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Tigers have averaged 7.7 yards per play (1,477 yards on 191 snaps), a 29% rise, #17 in Section over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.1 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.9 yards per play), Terra Nova gained 13% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #68 in Section, well below the first 4 (#45), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Terra Nova ranks #30 in Section in yards per play. That form gets a real test against Jefferson, whose defense ranks #15 in Section (5.2 yards per play).
The Tigers allowed 30.0 points per game over their first 4 games (0-4), #79 in Section over that timeframe. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), Terra Nova has allowed 21.5 points per game, a 28% drop, #38 in Section over that span. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Terra Nova's last 4 opponents have averaged 23.2 points per game, a #43 offense in Section on the season, against 26.2 points per game, #30 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (23.2 points per game), Terra Nova held those offenses 7% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #68 in Section, well below the first 4 (#45), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Only Santa Clara broke through in that span, putting up 45 on 10/23. On the season, the Tigers rank #59 in Section in scoring defense. Jefferson's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #52 in Section (21.9 points per game). Terra Nova is 3-1 this season when it holds opponents under 22, and 0-4 when it doesn't.
Terra Nova's run defense has been gashed on the ground as the season has progressed. Terra Nova allowed 4.5 yards per carry (392 yards on 87 rushes) over its first 4 games (0-4), #31 in Section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that hot start (3-1), the Tigers have allowed 5.6 yards per carry (513 yards on 92 rushes), a 24% rise, #50 in Section in that window. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 4 opponents have been softer, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, a #50 rushing attack in Section on the season, against 5.5 yards per carry, #40 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.6 yards per carry), Terra Nova allowed 21% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #68 in Section, well below the first 4 (#45), which makes the dip harder to excuse. On the season, Terra Nova ranks #39 in Section in run defense. It won't get any easier against Jefferson, whose ground game ranks #1 in Section (10.0 yards per carry).
TIDBITS (9 found)
• Club The last time Terra Nova went a game committing 3+ turnovers was October 18, 2024 against San Mateo (L, 7-27). Since then Terra Nova has gone 23 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers, a school-record 23 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Terra Nova is 13-0 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points in the games on file (13 such games).
• Club Terra Nova has scored 108 points over its last 3 games (36.0 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- its 4th-highest 3-game total on record; the most is 128, from August 25, 2023 through September 8, 2023.
• Player Robbie Johnson has 675 passing yards over his last 3 games (225.0 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Holden Najar has 289 receiving yards over his last 3 games (96.3 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Jayden Lagos has 61 tackles over his last 5 games (12.2 a game, September 25, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- his most in a 5-game stretch on record.
• Player Isaiah Birch Corona has gone 3 straight games intercepting a pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Robbie Johnson has gone 2 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 5 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, during the 2026 season.
• Player Holden Najar has gone 2 straight games catching a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Terra Nova has played a middle-of-the-road schedule in the pool so far (#57 of 95), and what is left is one of the toughest slates (#10 of 90): the hard part is still ahead.
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#57 of 95
avg opponent rating -5.8 over 9 games · 0 vs top-25 CIF Central Coast Section
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#10 of 90
avg opponent rating 21.7 over 1 games · 1 vs top-25
Toughest game played
Carlmont
#31 in CIF Central Coast Section · Sep 25 · L 28-49
@Hillsdale L 26-27@Leigh L 21-24Capuchino L 14-20Carlmont L 28-49@Los Altos W 45-13@South Sa… W 31-21Fremont W 41-7@Santa Cl… L 36-45Jefferson@Half Moo…
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
MILESTONE WATCH
Terra Nova
Isaiah Birch Corona needs 13 receiving yards for 500 (averaging 60.9 a game)
Jayden Lagos needs 5 tackles for 100 (averaging 11.9 a game)
Royce Brown needs 7 tackles for 75 (averaging 8.5 a game)
Holden Najar needs 1 receiving touchdown for 10 (averaging 1.1 a game)
Robbie Johnson needs 242 passing yards for 2,000 (averaging 219.8 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 23 game; last updated Oct 29; roster and numbers checked Sep 7.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 80.7/100 (+62 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 24.4/100 (-69 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 70.2/100 (-33 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 49.2/100 (-1 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
TN finished 2025 at 8-4. Made the playoffs (2 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 44-7 over JEFFERSON (JEFFERSON finished 75% that season). Toughest loss: 19-27 to ANN SOBRATO (8-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
TN HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• TN holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.571), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• TN commits fewer than 2 giveaways (.500), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• TN averages 7.0+ yards per play (.600), but most recently lost to Santa Clara when doing so
• TN averages 5.0+ yards per carry (.500), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• TN's offense has averaged 36.2 points scored per game over their last 5 games. Their 30-game average is 22.5 points scored per game. (+61%)
• TN's defense has averaged 1.8 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 13-game average is 1.2 takeaways per game. (+56%)
• TN's offense has averaged 239.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 26-game average is 155.0 pass yards per game. (+54%)
• TN's defense has averaged 168.2 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 13-game average is 120.2 pass yards per game. (+40%)
• TN averages 7.8+ yards per attempt (TN's own median) (.556)
• TN's offense has averaged 1.0 giveaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 13-game average is 1.5 giveaways per game. (-35%)
• TN's defense has averaged 110.6 rush yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 13-game average is 164.5 rush yards per game. (-33%)
• TN's defense has averaged 4.4 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 13-game average is 6.1 YPC. (-28%)
• TN rushes for 130.5+ yards (TN's own median) (.615)
• TN is 2-1 (.667) when it wins the turnover battle
• TN's offense has averaged 366.0 total yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 26-game average is 299.3 total yards per game. (+22%)
TN's defense has averaged 1.8 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 13-game average is 1.2 takeaways per game. (+56%)
TN's defense has averaged 168.2 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 13-game average is 120.2 pass yards per game. (+40%)
TN's defense has averaged 110.6 rush yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 13-game average is 164.5 rush yards per game. (-33%)
TN's defense has averaged 4.4 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 13-game average is 6.1 YPC. (-28%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where TERRA NOVA sits among 95 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 59.4, Defense Grade 46.3.
PASS YARDS / GAME: TERRA NOVA VS THE SECTION
TERRA NOVA ranks #4 of 68 section teams in passing yards per game (239.5) -- a strength worth a look.
TERRA NOVA: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 7.4 in 2022 to -6.1 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
