In short: Redwater Dragons high school football (Redwater, TX), 2026 season: 5-3. Last game: W 50-29 vs Hughes Springs on October 22, 2026. Next: at Hooks, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.

ScorePirate Individual Team Report

REDWATER

REDWATER 5-3

2026 SEASON

REDWATER

AT A GLANCE — AS OF 10/30/2026

RECORD	5-3 this season
LAST GAME	W 50-29 vs HUGHES SPRINGS
NEXT GAME	HOOKS (10/30/2026)
UNIT GRADES	Pass Off 82.1 · Rush Off 62.9 · Pass Def 86.5 · Rush Def 13.2
ENROLLMENT	351 STUDENTS (2023)

NUMBERS TO NOTE

#502

SP Strength Index (of 1252)

5-3

2026 record

+13.0

avg scoring margin, pts/gm

UNIT INDEX — GRADE (YDS VS AVG)

TEAM	PASS O	RUSH O	PASS D	RUSH D
REDWATER	82.1 (+66)	62.9 (+19)	86.5 (-64)	13.2 (+89)

• Club The last time Redwater went a game being held under 100 rushing yards was September 2, 2022 against Atlanta (L, 0-28). Since then Redwater has gone 42 straight games rushing for 100+ yards, a school-record 42 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club The last time Redwater went a game forcing 3+ turnovers was September 2, 2022 against Atlanta (L, 0-28). Since then Redwater has gone 42 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers, a school-record 42 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club The last time Redwater went a game allowing 200+ passing yards was September 1, 2023 against Atlanta (L, 38-68). Since then Redwater has gone 33 straight games holding the opponent under 200 passing yards, a school-record 33 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Redwater has scored 135 points over its last 3 games (45.0 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 22, 2026) -- its most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Beat Hughes Springs 50-29 on Oct 22; now 5-3.
• Braelan Morgan went past 500 rushing yards for the season (575).
• Miller Whitt went past 50 tackles for the season (52).

From the games on file through Oct 9.

REMAINING SCHEDULE

Most likely finish 6-4 · realistic range 5-5 to 7-3

Remaining schedule: 454th hardest of 1144 in the TX section (average opponent strength 5.3).

Date	Opponent	SP rank	Win chance
10/30	at Hooks	#329 of 1252	33%
11/06	vs Daingerfield	#661 of 1252	63%

Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).

PROGRAM RECORD

SEASON OUTLOOK

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)

PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.

Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 3/8, sacks/INT 6/8, sacks allowed 3/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.

UNIT INDEX

Pass Offense: grade 82.1/100 (+66 yds/gm vs average)

Rush Offense: grade 62.9/100 (+19 yds/gm vs average)

Pass Defense: grade 86.5/100 (-64 yds/gm vs average)

Rush Defense: grade 13.2/100 (+89 yds/gm vs average)

Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.

OPPONENT TRACKER

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)

LAST YEAR

RED finished 2025 at 1-8. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 60-6 over QUEEN CITY (QUEEN CITY finished 0% that season). Toughest loss: 18-20 to NEW DIANA (2-point margin).

"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.

• RED averages 5.0+ yards per carry (.999), and has won 5 straight when doing so

• RED averages 7.0+ yards per play (.999), and has won 5 straight when doing so

• RED commits fewer than 2 giveaways (.833), and has won 2 straight when doing so

• RED forces fewer than 2 takeaways (.750), and has won 2 straight when doing so

• RED's offense has exceeded 100 rush yds in 8 straight games (08/28/2026-10/22/2026), going 5-3 over that stretch.

• RED's offense has averaged 45.0 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 28.6 points scored per game. (+57%)

• RED averages 12.5+ yards per attempt (RED's own median) (.999)

• RED rushes for 202.5+ yards (RED's own median) (.999)

• RED is 4-0 (.999) when it wins the turnover battle

• RED averages 5.9+ yards per carry (RED's own median) (.999)

• RED averages 8.4+ yards per play (RED's own median) (.999)

• RED's defense has averaged 25.0 points allowed per game over their last 10 games. Their 25-game average is 37.6 points allowed per game. (-34%)

• RED's offense has exceeded 8.0 YPA in 3 straight games (10/02/2026-10/22/2026), going 2-1 over that stretch.

• RED's offense has exceeded 150 rush yds in 3 straight games (10/02/2026-10/22/2026), going 2-1 over that stretch.

• RED's offense has averaged 1.4 giveaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 1.1 giveaways per game. (+26%)

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)

(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)

--- RED ---

REDWATER

• REDWATER has scored 30+ in 3 straight games (10/2/26–10/22/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

RED OFFENSE

RED's offense has averaged 45.0 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 28.6 points scored per game. (+57%)

RED's offense has averaged 1.4 giveaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 1.1 giveaways per game. (+26%)

RED's offense has averaged 14.4 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 11.7 YPA. (+24%)

RED DEFENSE

RED's defense has averaged 25.0 points allowed per game over their last 10 games. Their 25-game average is 37.6 points allowed per game. (-34%)

(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)

Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.

Explanatory Notes

Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK

Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).

Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown

Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.

Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored

Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.

Full Data Exports

Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)