In short: Pine Tree Pirates high school football (Longview, TX), 2026 season: 5-3. Last game: W 42-17 vs Chapel Hill on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Henderson, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 5-3 this season |
| LAST GAME | W 42-17 vs CHAPEL HILL |
| NEXT GAME | HENDERSON (10/30/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 73.2 · Rush Off 49.4 · Pass Def 74.6 · Rush Def 40.8 |
| ENROLLMENT | 1,259 STUDENTS |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PINE TREE | 73.2 (+38) | 49.4 (-12) | 74.6 (-40) | 40.8 (+15) |
Next: vs Henderson, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Henderson at Pine Tree.
The number to watch when Pine Tree meets Henderson is Pine Tree's scoring defense. Pine Tree allowed 52.3 points per game over its first 3 games (1-2), #1198 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (4-1), the Pirates have allowed 22.6 points per game, a 57% drop, #374 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Pine Tree's last 5 opponents have averaged 34.3 points per game, a #419 offense in section on the season, against 49.5 points per game, #56 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (34.3 points per game), Pine Tree held those offenses 34% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #410 in section, well below the first 3 (#22), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Only Lindale broke through in that span, putting up 45 on 10/16. Conversely, Henderson's offense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Lions have averaged 42.0 points per game over their last 5 games (4-1), #251 in section during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker scoring defenses in section (35.5 points per game on the season, which would rank #893). Against those norms, Henderson scored 18% more than those defenses usually allow. Something has to give when Pine Tree's surging defense meets one of section's better units in Henderson's. Pine Tree is 4-0 this season when it holds opponents under 38, and 1-3 when it doesn't.
The biggest worry in Pine Tree's season has been the direction of its offense. Pine Tree averaged 44.5 points per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #126 in section through those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (3-1), the Pirates have averaged 34.8 points per game, a 22% drop, #453 in section through that stretch. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 4 opponents have been softer, averaging 34.8 points per game, a #873 scoring defense in section on the season, against 29.1 points per game, #647 for the first 4. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #322 in section, well below the first 4 (#119), which makes the dip harder to excuse. On the season, Pine Tree ranks #248 in section in scoring. Henderson's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #800 in section (32.6 points per game).
• Club The last time Pine Tree went a game holding the opponent under 100 rushing yards was November 22, 2024 against Stafford (L, 13-14). Since then Pine Tree has gone 21 straight games allowing 100+ rushing yards, a school-record 21 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Pine Tree is 15-2 all time when holding the opponent under 7.0 yards per play. Pine Tree's last loss when holding the opponent under 7.0 yards per play was November 22, 2024 against Stafford (L, 13-14).
• Club Pine Tree is 11-2 all time when scoring 40+ points. Pine Tree's last loss when scoring 40+ points was September 11, 2026 against Athens (L, 48-50).
• Club Pine Tree has scored 181 points over its last 5 games (36.2 a game, September 18, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- its 5th-highest 5-game total on record; the most is 201, from October 3, 2025 through November 7, 2025.
• Player Colton Croft has gone 13 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Roger Attaway has 309 rushing yards over his last 3 games (103.0 a game, November 14, 2025 through November 28, 2025) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Rashaad Wofford has gone 3 straight games catching a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Bosston Johnson has gone 2 straight games recording 100+ receiving yards, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Bosston Johnson has gone 2 straight games catching a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Ashton Valentine has never had a game recording 100+ receiving yards for Pine Tree, over a 12-game career on record. His career high is 87, set August 30, 2024 against Gilmer (W, 22-15).
DATA WARNING: PINE TREE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/23/2026 GAME @ CHAPEL HILL* MISSING
DATA WARNING: PINE TREE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/16/2026 GAME VS. LINDALE* MISSING
DATA WARNING: PINE TREE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/02/2026 GAME @ PALESTINE* MISSING
DATA WARNING: PINE TREE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/25/2026 GAME VS. KILGORE* MISSING
DATA WARNING: PINE TREE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/18/2026 GAME @ JACKSONVILLE* MISSING
DATA WARNING: PINE TREE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/11/2026 GAME VS. ATHENS MISSING
DATA WARNING: PINE TREE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/04/2026 GAME @ CARTHAGE MISSING
DATA WARNING: PINE TREE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 08/27/2026 GAME VS. GILMER MISSING
All stat areas in this report are subject to change as box scores are updated.
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2022 | 2-8 | 233 | 287 | 23.3 |
| 2023 | 6-5 | 240 | 253 | 21.8 |
| 2024 | 10-2 | 304 | 197 | 25.3 |
| 2025 | 8-5 | 408 | 334 | 31.4 |
| 2026 | 5-3 | 317 | 270 | 39.6 |
| 2022-26 | 31-23 | 27.8 |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/27 | GILMER | vs | W | 52-40 | |
| 09/04 | CARTHAGE | at | L | 36-67 | |
| 09/11 | ATHENS | vs | L | 48-50 | |
| 09/18 | JACKSONVILLE | at | W | 42-13 | |
| 09/25 | KILGORE | vs | W | 34-28 | |
| 10/02 | PALESTINE | at | W | 42-10 | |
| 10/16 | LINDALE | vs | L | 21-45 | |
| 10/23 | CHAPEL HILL | at | W | 42-17 | |
| 10/30 | HENDERSON | vs | PROJ | 35-30 | 60.8% |
| 11/06 | BULLARD | at | PROJ | 53-10 | 98.4% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 5-3 | 2 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 5-3 so far | 7-3 (48%) | 6.4-3.6 |
| League | 4-1 so far | 4-1 (100%) | 4.0-1.0 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 8 | 39.6 | 33.8 | -- | 369.5 | -- | 51.5 |
| HOME | 4 | 38.8 | 40.8 | -- | 415.0 | -- | 55.0 |
| ROAD | 4 | 40.5 | 26.8 | -- | 354.3 | -- | 50.3 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Box-score coverage behind YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME: Overall 0/8 game(s), Home 0/4 game(s), Road 0/4 game(s).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 8/27 | vs. Gilmer | W 52-40 | -- | -- | -- | 124 | 291 | 415 | 0 | -- | -- | 4 | +3 |
| 9/4 | @ Carthage | L 36-67 | -- | -- | -- | 259 | 290 | 549 | 2 | -- | -- | 1 | -4 |
| 9/11 | vs. Athens | L 48-50 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 9/18 | @ Jacksonville | W 42-13 | -- | -- | -- | 62 | 232 | 294 | 0 | -- | -- | 2 | +2 |
| 9/25 | vs. Kilgore | W 34-28 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 10/2 | @ Palestine | W 42-10 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 10/16 | vs. Lindale | L 21-45 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 10/23 | @ Chapel Hill | W 42-17 | -- | -- | -- | 20 | 200 | 220 | -- | -- | -- | 1 | +1 |
| AVERAGES | -- | -- | -- | 116.2 | 253.2 | 369.5 | 0.7 | -- | -- | 2.0 | +2 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 0/8, defense 4/8, sacks/INT 0/8, sacks allowed 3/8, turnovers 4/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 73.2/100 (+38 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 49.4/100 (-12 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 74.6/100 (-40 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 40.8/100 (+15 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-10-30 | vs | HENDERSON | 5-3 | 37.1 |
| 2026-11-06 | at | BULLARD | 1-7 | 27.6 |
LAST YEAR
PT finished 2025 at 8-5. Made the playoffs (3 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 35-27 over YATES (YATES finished 92% that season). Toughest loss: 10-17 to LINDALE (7-point margin).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | RECORD | PF | PA | TOT YDS | YDS ALLOWED |
| 2025-08-29 | GILMER | L | 0-1 | 25 | 41 | 339 | 383 |
| 2025-09-05 | VAN | L | 0-2 | 21 | 38 | 249 | 436 |
| 2025-09-12 | CARTER | W | 1-2 | 46 | 29 | 348 | 365 |
| 2025-09-19 | HALLSVILLE | W | 2-2 | 28 | 21 | 327 | N/A |
| 2025-09-26 | KILGORE | L | 2-3 | 7 | 35 | 256 | N/A |
| 2025-10-03 | MABANK | W | 3-3 | 64 | 8 | 357 | 251 |
| 2025-10-17 | HENDERSON | W | 4-3 | 49 | 21 | 287 | 274 |
| 2025-10-23 | CHAPEL HILL | W | 5-3 | 35 | 28 | 389 | 503 |
| 2025-10-31 | LINDALE | L | 5-4 | 10 | 17 | 233 | N/A |
| 2025-11-07 | PALESTINE | W | 6-4 | 43 | 21 | 270 | 223 |
| 2025-11-14 | LUMBERTON | W | 7-4 | 35 | 0 | 458 | 144 |
| 2025-11-21 | YATES | W | 8-4 | 35 | 27 | 513 | 267 |
| 2025-11-28 | ALMETA CRAWFORD | L | 8-5 | 10 | 48 | 272 | 436 |
| TOTALS | 13 GMS | 8-5 | 8-5 | 408 | 334 | 4298 | 3282 (10) |
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
• PT averages 8.0+ yards per attempt (.999), and has won 7 straight when doing so
• PT commits fewer than 2 giveaways (.999), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• PT averages 7.0+ yards per play (.857), and has won 5 straight when doing so
• PT rushes for 150+ yards (.833), and has won 5 straight when doing so
• PT's offense has averaged 0.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.8 giveaways per game. (-100%)
• PT's defense has averaged 20.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 122.5 pass yards per game. (-84%)
• PT's offense has averaged 231.5 rush yards per game over their last 10 games. Their 13-game average is 145.4 rush yards per game. (+59%)
• PT averages 7.9+ yards per attempt (PT's own median) (.999)
• PT's defense has averaged 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 4-game average is 2.0 takeaways per game. (-50%)
• PT's defense has averaged 3.3 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 6.5 YPA. (-48%)
• PT's defense has averaged 34.5 points allowed per game over their last 10 games. Their 33-game average is 24.3 points allowed per game. (+42%)
• PT holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per attempt (PT's own median) (.999)
• PT's offense has averaged 5.1 YPA over their last 10 games. Their 14-game average is 7.7 YPA. (-34%)
• PT's defense has averaged 220.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 314.6 total yards per game. (-30%)
• PT's defense has averaged 7.0 YPC over their last 7 games. Their 25-game average is 5.5 YPC. (+27%)
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
PT -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 14 scored; vs 826 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | DEF | YPP < 7 | 14-2 | .875 | 16.4 | W7 | 0.845 |
| 2 | DEF | YPP < 6 | 12-2 | .857 | 14.8 | W6 | 0.793 |
| 3 | DEF | YPA < 8 | 15-3 | .833 | 18.9 | W8 | 0.755 |
| 4 | DEF | Rush Yds 100+ | 19-4 | .826 | 24.2 | W2 | 0.726 |
| 5 | DEF | Pass Yds < 200 | 16-4 | .800 | 20.0 | W10 | 0.726 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- PT ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| PT holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt and under 5.0 yards per carry | 6-2 | .750 | 14.5 | W2 |
| PT holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry and under 150 rushing yards | 6-2 | .750 | 14.5 | W2 |
| PT rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 4-3 | .571 | 33.7 | L1 |
| PT holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards | 5-2 | .714 | 14.0 | W2 |
| PT averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards | 5-1 | .833 | 41.8 | W5 |
| PT averages 8.0+ yards per attempt while throwing for 200+ yards | 5-0 | .999 | 33.2 | W5 |
| PT averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards | 3-1 | .750 | 41.8 | W3 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| PT | YPA < 8.0 & YPC < 5.0 | 6-2 | .750 | 14.5 |
| PT | YPC < 5.0 & Rush Yds < 150 | 6-2 | .750 | 14.5 |
| PT | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 4-3 | .571 | 33.7 |
| PT | Rush Yds < 150 & Pass Yds < 200 | 5-2 | .714 | 14.0 |
| PT | YPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 5-1 | .833 | 41.8 |
| PT | YPA 8.0+ & Pass Yds 200+ | 5-0 | .999 | 33.2 |
| PT | YPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 3-1 | .750 | 41.8 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 7-0 | 1.000 | 39.0 | W7 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 2-5 | .286 | 22.4 | L1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 5-1 | .833 | 28.8 | W2 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 4-4 | .500 | 32.1 | L1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 6-3 | .667 | 35.2 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 2-2 | .500 | 22.8 | W1 | 20 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 5-1 | .833 | 41.8 | W5 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 3-4 | .429 | 22.4 | L2 | 20 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 5-1 | .833 | 41.8 | W5 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 3-4 | .429 | 22.4 | L2 | 20 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 7-2 | .778 | 35.4 | W6 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 2-3 | .400 | 22.2 | L1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 6-1 | .857 | 36.4 | W5 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-4 | .429 | 25.0 | L1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-3 | .500 | 29.3 | L1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 42.0 | W2 | 25 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-3 | .250 | 25.5 | L1 | 25 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 28.5 | L2 | 25 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-2 | .000 | 6.5 |
| Scores 10-19 | 1-3 | .250 | 11.5 |
| Scores 20-29 | 4-3 | .571 | 22.6 |
| Scores 30-39 | 10-1 | .909 | 34.9 |
| Scores 40+ | 8-1 | .889 | 47.6 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| YPA < 8.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| YPC < 5.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| YPP < 6.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| YPP < 7.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 1-1 | .500 | 44.0 | L1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 42.0 | W2 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 0-1 | .000 | 36.0 | L1 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-1 | .000 | 36.0 | L1 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 10-19 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 20-29 | 0-1 | .000 | 21.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 1-1 | .500 | 35.0 |
| Scores 40+ | 4-1 | .800 | 45.2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 4-3 | .571 | 35.3 | L2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 15-3 | .833 | 18.9 | W8 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 3-2 | .600 | 37.6 | L2 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 16-4 | .800 | 20.0 | W10 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 19-4 | .826 | 24.2 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 0-2 | .000 | 15.5 | L2 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 11-4 | .733 | 27.8 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 8-2 | .800 | 17.1 | W2 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 13-4 | .765 | 27.8 | W2 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 6-2 | .750 | 14.5 | W2 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 7-4 | .636 | 34.6 | L1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 12-2 | .857 | 14.8 | W6 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 5-4 | .556 | 36.1 | L1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 14-2 | .875 | 16.4 | W7 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-1 | .750 | 34.2 | W2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 29 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 26.5 | W2 | 29 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 40.0 | W1 | 29 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 6-0 | 1.000 | 5.8 |
| Allows 10-19 | 5-3 | .625 | 14.6 |
| Allows 20-29 | 10-0 | 1.000 | 25.5 |
| Allows 30-39 | 1-2 | .333 | 34.3 |
| Allows 40+ | 1-5 | .167 | 48.5 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-1 | .000 | 67.0 | L1 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 23.3 | W3 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-1 | .000 | 67.0 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 23.3 | W3 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 3-1 | .750 | 34.2 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 4 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 3-1 | .750 | 34.2 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 4 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 3-1 | .750 | 34.2 | W2 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 4 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 53.5 | L1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 15.0 | W2 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 53.5 | L1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 15.0 | W2 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-1 | .750 | 34.2 | W2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 4 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 26.5 | W2 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 40.0 | W1 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 10-19 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 13.3 |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 28.0 |
| Allows 30-39 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 40+ | 1-3 | .250 | 50.5 |
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| PT | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 7 | 7-0 | 1.000 | 39.0 | W7 |
| PT | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 7 | 2-5 | .286 | 22.4 | L1 |
| PT | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 28.8 | W2 |
| PT | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 8 | 4-4 | .500 | 32.1 | L1 |
| PT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 9 | 6-3 | .667 | 35.2 | L1 |
| PT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 22.8 | W1 |
| PT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 41.8 | W5 |
| PT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 22.4 | L2 |
| PT | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 41.8 | W5 |
| PT | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 22.4 | L2 |
| PT | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 9 | 7-2 | .778 | 35.4 | W6 |
| PT | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 22.2 | L1 |
| PT | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 7 | 6-1 | .857 | 36.4 | W5 |
| PT | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 25.0 | L1 |
| PT | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 29.3 | L1 |
| PT | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 42.0 | W2 |
| PT | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 25.5 | L1 |
| PT | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 28.5 | L2 |
| PT | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 6.5 | L2 |
| PT | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 11.5 | L3 |
| PT | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 7 | 4-3 | .571 | 22.6 | L1 |
| PT | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 11 | 10-1 | .909 | 34.9 | W1 |
| PT | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 9 | 8-1 | .889 | 47.6 | W3 |
| PT | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 7 | 4-3 | .571 | 35.3 | L2 |
| PT | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 18 | 15-3 | .833 | 18.9 | W8 |
| PT | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 37.6 | L2 |
| PT | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 20 | 16-4 | .800 | 20.0 | W10 |
| PT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 23 | 19-4 | .826 | 24.2 | W2 |
| PT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 15.5 | L2 |
| PT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 15 | 11-4 | .733 | 27.8 | W2 |
| PT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 10 | 8-2 | .800 | 17.1 | W2 |
| PT | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 17 | 13-4 | .765 | 27.8 | W2 |
| PT | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 8 | 6-2 | .750 | 14.5 | W2 |
| PT | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 11 | 7-4 | .636 | 34.6 | L1 |
| PT | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 14 | 12-2 | .857 | 14.8 | W6 |
| PT | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 9 | 5-4 | .556 | 36.1 | L1 |
| PT | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 16 | 14-2 | .875 | 16.4 | W7 |
| PT | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 34.2 | W2 |
| PT | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 26.5 | W2 |
| PT | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 40.0 | W1 |
| PT | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 6 | 6-0 | 1.000 | 5.8 | W6 |
| PT | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 8 | 5-3 | .625 | 14.6 | W3 |
| PT | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 10 | 10-0 | 1.000 | 25.5 | W10 |
| PT | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 34.3 | L2 |
| PT | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 48.5 | L3 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
PT OFFENSE
PT's offense has averaged 0.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.8 giveaways per game. (-100%)
PT's offense has averaged 231.5 rush yards per game over their last 10 games. Their 13-game average is 145.4 rush yards per game. (+59%)
PT's offense has averaged 5.1 YPA over their last 10 games. Their 14-game average is 7.7 YPA. (-34%)
PT's offense has averaged 5.3 YPP over their last 10 games. Their 14-game average is 6.9 YPP. (-23%)
PT's offense has averaged 37.9 points scored per game over their last 7 games. Their 33-game average is 31.2 points scored per game. (+21%)
PT's offense has averaged 161.0 pass yards per game over their last 10 games. Their 14-game average is 202.6 pass yards per game. (-21%)
PT DEFENSE
PT's defense has averaged 20.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 122.5 pass yards per game. (-84%)
PT's defense has averaged 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 4-game average is 2.0 takeaways per game. (-50%)
PT's defense has averaged 3.3 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 6.5 YPA. (-48%)
PT's defense has averaged 34.5 points allowed per game over their last 10 games. Their 33-game average is 24.3 points allowed per game. (+42%)
PT's defense has averaged 220.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 314.6 total yards per game. (-30%)
PT's defense has averaged 7.0 YPC over their last 7 games. Their 25-game average is 5.5 YPC. (+27%)
PT's defense has averaged 240.7 rush yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 25-game average is 192.1 rush yards per game. (+25%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| PT | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 20.0 | 25 | 122.5 | -83.7% | |
| PT | OFFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 10 | 161.0 | 14 | 202.6 | -20.5% | |
| PT | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 10 | 34.5 | 33 | 24.3 | +42.1% | |
| PT | OFFENSE | team | Points | last 7 | 37.9 | 33 | 31.2 | +21.4% | |
| PT | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 7 | 240.7 | 25 | 192.1 | +25.3% | |
| PT | OFFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 10 | 231.5 | 13 | 145.4 | +59.2% | |
| PT | DEFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 220.0 | 25 | 314.6 | -30.1% | |
| PT | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 1.0 | 4 | 2.0 | -50.0% | |
| PT | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 0.0 | 8 | 1.8 | -100.0% | |
| PT | DEFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 3.3 | 25 | 6.5 | -48.5% | |
| PT | OFFENSE | team | YPA | last 10 | 5.1 | 14 | 7.7 | -33.9% | |
| PT | DEFENSE | team | YPC | last 7 | 7.0 | 25 | 5.5 | +26.7% | |
| PT | OFFENSE | team | YPP | last 10 | 5.3 | 14 | 6.9 | -23.4% |
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -0.5 in 2022 to 8.7 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
From the games on file through Oct 23.
