In short: Palmdale Falcons high school football (Palmdale, CA), 2026 season: 4-5 in the Golden - Mountain League. Last game: L 0-48 vs Quartz Hill on October 22, 2026. Next: at Highland, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The turnover battle could decide Palmdale's next game, against Highland, and the recent returns favor Palmdale. Palmdale forced 0.6 takeaways per game over its first 5 games (2-3), #326 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Falcons have forced 2.2 takeaways per game, a 275% rise, #42 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Palmdale's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.6 per game, a #297 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 1.5 per game, #264 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.6 per game), Palmdale forced 37% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Meanwhile, Highland's ball security has struggled in recent weeks. The Bulldogs have committed 2.0 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (2-2), #320 in CIF-SS during that time. Those games came against some of the better defenses in CIF-SS (1.6 per game on the season, which would rank #129). Against those norms, Highland turned it over 29% more than those defenses usually force. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Palmdale.
The number to watch when Palmdale meets Highland is Palmdale's scoring defense. Palmdale allowed 21.3 points per game over its first 3 games (2-1), #187 in CIF-SS through those games. In the 6 games since that hot start (2-4), the Falcons have allowed 33.3 points per game, a 56% rise, #322 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Palmdale's last 6 opponents have averaged 30.9 points per game, a #114 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 17.4 points per game, #320 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (30.9 points per game), Palmdale allowed 8% more than those offenses usually score. Meanwhile, Highland's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Bulldogs have averaged 25.5 points per game over their last 6 games (3-3), #190 in CIF-SS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in CIF-SS (21.4 points per game on the season, which would rank #165). Against those norms, Highland scored 19% more than those defenses usually allow. Highland offers Palmdale a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Palmdale is 4-0 this season when it holds opponents under 20, and 0-5 when it doesn't.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Palmdale's season has been the direction of its ball security. Palmdale committed 1.5 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #232 in CIF-SS within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Falcons have committed 2.8 giveaways per game, an 87% rise, #392 in CIF-SS across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Palmdale's last 5 opponents have averaged 1.6 per game, a #127 defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 1.0 per game, #300 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.6 per game), Palmdale turned it over 77% more than those defenses usually force. On the season, Palmdale ranks #369 in CIF-SS in giveaways. Highland's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #143 in CIF-SS (1.6 per game).
Palmdale's passing game from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Falcons averaged 9.7 yards per pass attempt (705 yards on 73 attempts) over their first 4 games (2-2), #84 in CIF-SS during those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), Palmdale has averaged 6.1 yards per pass attempt (434 yards on 71 attempts), a 37% drop, #272 in CIF-SS during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Palmdale's last 5 opponents have averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, a #193 pass defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 10.6 yards per attempt, #360 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.7 yards per attempt), Palmdale threw for 21% less per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. On the season, the Falcons rank #164 in CIF-SS in passing. Highland's pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #191 in CIF-SS (7.7 yards per attempt).
Something changed for Palmdale's offense after its first 3 games. Palmdale averaged 34.7 points per game over its first 3 games (2-1), #87 in CIF-SS during that stretch. In the 6 games since that hot start (2-4), the Falcons have averaged 21.7 points per game, a 37% drop, #247 in CIF-SS over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Palmdale's last 6 opponents have averaged 22.6 points per game, a #185 scoring defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 32.2 points per game, #329 for the first 3. Palmdale was held to 14 points or fewer 3 times in those games, including 0 against Quartz Hill on 10/22. On the season, Palmdale ranks #183 in CIF-SS in scoring. Highland's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #266 in CIF-SS (27.3 points per game). Palmdale is 4-0 this season when it scores 28 or more, and 0-5 when it doesn't.
One of Palmdale's shakiest areas lately has been its pass defense. The Falcons allowed 8.9 yards per pass attempt (673 yards on 76 attempts) over their first 4 games (2-2), #277 in CIF-SS over that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), Palmdale has allowed 11.2 yards per pass attempt (1,098 yards on 98 attempts), a 27% rise, #347 in CIF-SS over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Palmdale's last 5 opponents have averaged 9.0 yards per attempt, a #106 passing attack in CIF-SS on the season, against 7.1 yards per attempt, #223 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (9.0 yards per attempt), Palmdale allowed 24% more per attempt than those passing attacks usually gain. On the season, the Falcons rank #346 in CIF-SS in pass defense. Highland's passing game, #348 of 376 (4.8 yards per attempt), could be the get-right matchup Palmdale needs.
Palmdale's defense has given up chunk yardage as the season has progressed. Palmdale allowed 7.4 yards per play (1,177 yards on 158 snaps) over its first 4 games (2-2), #282 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Falcons have allowed 9.4 yards per play (1,729 yards on 184 snaps), a 26% rise, #346 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Palmdale's last 5 opponents have averaged 8.2 yards per play, a #70 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 6.1 yards per play, #247 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.2 yards per play), Palmdale allowed 15% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. On the season, Palmdale ranks #338 in CIF-SS in yards per play allowed. Highland's offense, #355 of 379 (4.4 yards per play), could be the get-right matchup Palmdale needs.
TIDBITS (9 found)
• Club Palmdale has lost 2 straight, and a loss would make it 3 in a row. The last time they lost 3 or more in a row was 2024, a run of 6.
• Club Palmdale is 44-1 all time when scoring 40+ points. Palmdale's last loss when scoring 40+ points was December 14, 2024 against American Canyon (L, 47-68).
• Club Palmdale is 33-2 all time when holding the opponent under 7.0 yards per play. Palmdale's last loss when holding the opponent under 7.0 yards per play was September 20, 2024 against Lancaster (L, 16-22).
• Club Palmdale is 18-1 all time when holding the opponent under 100 rushing yards. Palmdale's last loss when holding the opponent under 100 rushing yards was September 8, 2023 against Culver City (L, 0-59).
• Club Palmdale has gone 6 straight games allowing 5.0+ yards per carry (September 11, 2026 through October 22, 2026), going 2-4 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2025 (8 games).
• Club Palmdale has gone 5 straight games committing 1+ turnover (September 18, 2026 through October 22, 2026), going 2-3 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2024 (7 games).
• Player Santiago Gamboa has 48 tackles over his last 6 games (8.0 a game, October 31, 2025 through October 2, 2026) -- his most in a 6-game stretch on record.
• Player D'onnie Moore has gone 3 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Zason Walker has gone 12 straight games without recording 100+ receiving yards. The last time he had 100+ receiving yards was October 17, 2025 against Littlerock (W, 41-10) — 151 receiving yards.
MILESTONE WATCH
Palmdale
D'Onnie Moore needs 104 passing yards for 1,000 (averaging 128.0 a game)
Elleyon Clark needs 1 rushing touchdown for 10 (averaging 1.1 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 16 game; last updated Oct 26; roster and numbers checked Oct 6.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
1 CIF-SS title · 2 CIF-SS runner-up finishes · 1 CIF State runner-up finish · 2 CIF-SS Players of the Year · 1 league title
YEAR
HONOR
2024
CIF STATE RUNNER-UP (lost to American Canyon 68-47)
CIF-SS Division 12 CHAMPION (def. Carter 45-43)
CIF-SS Defensive Player of the Year (Division 12): ZASON WALKER
CIF-SS Offensive Player of the Year (Division 12): JOSH SUAREZ
2023
Golden LEAGUE CHAMPION (6-1 in league, shared with HIGHLAND, QUARTZ HILL)
2007
CIF-SS Western RUNNER-UP (lost to St. Paul 42-14)
2003
CIF-SS Div. III RUNNER-UP (lost to Notre Dame/Sherman Oaks 31-7)
Section and state results and Players of the Year: CIF-SS Record Book. League finishes judged from league schedules on file (2022-2025 seasons); earlier league titles are not on file.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 8/9, sacks/INT 8/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 60.2/100 (+7 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 45.0/100 (-21 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 36.1/100 (+15 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 48.9/100 (-1 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
COACHING
Anthony Coleman — head coach since 2022 (earlier on file: Eric Nickols, Jeff Williams)
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-10-30
at
HIGHLAND
3-6
20.0
LAST YEAR
PAL finished 2025 at 6-6. Made the playoffs (2 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 28-8 over KNIGHT (KNIGHT finished 40% that season). Toughest loss: 28-37 to HESPERIA (9-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
PAL HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• PAL forces 1+ takeaways (.833), and has won 10 straight when doing so
• PAL holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.938), and has won 14 straight when doing so
• PAL holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.933), and has won 13 straight when doing so
• PAL holds its opponents under 100 rushing yards (.999), and has won 8 straight when doing so
• PAL holds its opponents under 7.3 yards per play (PAL's own median) (.941)
• PAL holds its opponents under 6.7 yards per carry (PAL's own median) (.882)
• PAL is 13-0 (.999) when it wins the turnover battle
• PAL holds its opponents under 9.3 yards per attempt (PAL's own median) (.875)
• PAL's defense has conceded 5.0+ YPC in 6 straight games (09/11/2026-10/22/2026), going 2-4 over that stretch.
• PAL's offense has averaged 9.3 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 36-game average is 5.9 YPC. (+57%)
• PAL's defense has averaged 14.7 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 9.5 YPA. (+55%)
• PAL's offense has averaged 2.8 giveaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 37-game average is 1.8 giveaways per game. (+55%)
• PAL's offense has committed 1+ turnover in 5 straight games (09/18/2026-10/22/2026), going 2-3 over that stretch.
• PAL's defense has averaged 230.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 157.8 pass yards per game. (+46%)
• PAL averages 6.8+ yards per play (PAL's own median) (.833)
PAL — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (37 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-7
.000
4.9
Scores 10-19
0-2
.000
17.0
Scores 20-29
1-7
.125
24.4
Scores 30-39
5-0
1.000
35.4
Scores 40+
14-1
.933
48.1
PAL — OFFENSE — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
3-1
.750
38.5
W1
YPA < 8.0
1-3
.250
20.0
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
1-1
.500
30.5
L1
Pass Yds < 200
3-3
.500
28.8
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
3-2
.600
32.2
W1
Rush Yds < 100
1-2
.333
24.3
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
2-2
.500
29.8
W1
Rush Yds < 150
2-2
.500
28.8
L1
1 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
3-3
.500
28.0
L1
YPC < 5.0
1-1
.500
33.0
W1
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
3-1
.750
38.5
W1
YPP < 6.0
1-3
.250
20.0
L1
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
3-1
.750
38.5
W1
YPP < 7.0
1-3
.250
20.0
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
4-4
.500
26.8
L2
Turnovers < 1
0-1
.000
20.0
L1
Turnovers 2+
2-3
.400
24.0
L1
Turnovers > 2
1-2
.333
16.0
L2
PAL — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-3
.000
4.7
Scores 10-19
--
--
--
Scores 20-29
0-2
.000
20.5
Scores 30-39
--
--
--
Scores 40+
4-0
1.000
44.8
PAL — DEFENSE — 2024-26 (37 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
3-15
.167
46.1
L4
YPA < 8.0
14-1
.933
15.4
W13
4 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
2-8
.200
45.0
L6
Pass Yds < 200
15-8
.652
26.6
W2
4 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
9-17
.346
39.5
L2
Rush Yds < 100
8-0
1.000
9.2
W8
3 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
7-13
.350
38.8
L4
Rush Yds < 150
10-4
.714
23.3
L2
3 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
9-17
.346
39.0
L2
YPC < 5.0
8-0
1.000
11.1
W8
3 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
4-17
.190
44.3
L4
YPP < 6.0
13-0
1.000
13.2
W13
3 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
2-16
.111
47.4
L4
YPP < 7.0
15-1
.938
15.6
W14
3 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
20-4
.833
21.4
W10
Turnovers < 1
0-13
.000
48.2
L13
Turnovers 2+
16-2
.889
16.3
W9
Turnovers > 2
9-0
1.000
9.7
W9
PAL — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (37 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
7-0
1.000
5.9
Allows 10-19
7-0
1.000
13.1
Allows 20-29
4-1
.800
24.6
Allows 30-39
1-2
.333
36.7
Allows 40+
1-14
.067
51.6
PAL — DEFENSE — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
1-5
.167
38.5
L4
YPA < 8.0
3-0
1.000
11.0
W3
Pass Yds 200+
0-3
.000
46.7
L3
Pass Yds < 200
4-2
.667
20.7
W2
Rush Yds 100+
1-5
.167
38.5
L2
Rush Yds < 100
3-0
1.000
11.0
W3
Rush Yds 150+
0-3
.000
44.3
L3
Rush Yds < 150
4-2
.667
21.8
L2
YPC 5.0+
2-5
.286
34.7
L2
YPC < 5.0
2-0
1.000
10.5
W2
YPP 6.0+
1-5
.167
38.5
L4
YPP < 6.0
3-0
1.000
11.0
W3
YPP 7.0+
1-5
.167
38.5
L4
YPP < 7.0
3-0
1.000
11.0
W3
Turnovers 1+
4-0
1.000
10.0
W4
Turnovers < 1
0-5
.000
44.8
L5
Turnovers 2+
3-0
1.000
11.0
W3
Turnovers > 2
2-0
1.000
9.5
W2
PAL — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
2-0
1.000
7.0
Allows 10-19
2-0
1.000
13.0
Allows 20-29
--
--
--
Allows 30-39
--
--
--
Allows 40+
0-5
.000
44.8
ON THE BRINK
PALMDALE
• PALMDALE has allowed a 300-yard passer in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/22/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• PALMDALE has allowed 250+ passing in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/22/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• PALMDALE has been held under 14 in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/22/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• PALMDALE has allowed 400+ total yards in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/22/26). It has not allowed 400+ total yards in 3 straight since 11/29/24–12/14/24 (2024).
PAL's defense has averaged 14.7 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 9.5 YPA. (+55%)
PAL's defense has averaged 230.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 157.8 pass yards per game. (+46%)
PAL's defense has averaged 11.1 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 34-game average is 7.9 YPP. (+40%)
PAL's defense has averaged 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 37-game average is 1.6 takeaways per game. (-38%)
PAL's defense has averaged 121.0 rush yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 34-game average is 181.2 rush yards per game. (-33%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where PALMDALE sits among 399 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 59.5, Defense Grade 51.6.
YARDS / PLAY: PALMDALE VS THE SECTION
PALMDALE ranks #72 of 356 section teams in yards per play (8.15) -- a strength worth a look.
PALMDALE: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 10.2 in 2022 to 2.4 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
