Next: at Marietta, Fri 6 Nov. Matchup report: North Cobb at Marietta.

The turnover battle could decide North Cobb's next game, against Marietta, and the recent returns favor North Cobb. North Cobb forced 0.8 takeaways per game over its first 5 games (4-1), #304 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (3-1), the Warriors have forced 1.8 takeaways per game, a 119% rise, #67 in section in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.0 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (0.9 per game), North Cobb forced 85% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Meanwhile, Marietta's ball security has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Blue Devils have committed 1.0 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (3-1), #212 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in section (1.2 per game on the season, which would rank #193). Against those norms, Marietta turned it over 14% less than those defenses usually force. Marietta offers North Cobb a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.

The number to watch when North Cobb meets Marietta is North Cobb's rushing. North Cobb averaged 5.3 yards per carry (534 yards on 101 rushes) over its first 3 games (2-1), #227 in section through those games. In the 6 games since that slow start (5-1), the Warriors have averaged 8.0 yards per carry (1,133 yards on 141 rushes), a 52% rise, #66 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: North Cobb's last 6 opponents have averaged 6.3 yards per carry, a #308 run defense in section on the season, against 4.9 yards per carry, #112 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.3 yards per carry), North Cobb ran for 27% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #188 in section, well below the first 3 (#48), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Marietta's run defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Blue Devils have allowed 6.4 yards per carry (1,272 yards on 200 rushes) over their last 6 games (4-2), #285 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of rushing attacks in section (5.0 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #285). Against those norms, Marietta allowed 27% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. Marietta offers North Cobb a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.

The biggest shift in North Cobb's season has come in its ball security. North Cobb committed 1.6 giveaways per game over its first 5 games (4-1), #342 in section within that period. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (3-1), the Warriors have committed 0.8 giveaways per game, a 53% drop, #155 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: North Cobb's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.0 per game, a #237 defense in section on the season, against 1.5 per game, #104 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.0 per game), North Cobb turned it over 27% less than those defenses usually force. On the season, North Cobb ranks #272 in section in giveaways. Marietta's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #226 in section (1.1 per game).

North Cobb's defense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. The Warriors allowed 24.0 points per game over their first 3 games (2-1), #235 in section during those games. In the 6 games since that slow start (5-1), North Cobb has allowed 15.8 points per game, a 34% drop, #96 in section during that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: North Cobb's last 6 opponents have averaged 23.9 points per game, a #247 offense in section on the season, against 36.7 points per game, #76 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (23.9 points per game), North Cobb held those offenses 34% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #188 in section, well below the first 3 (#48), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Only Walton broke through in that span, putting up 28 on 10/16. On the season, the Warriors rank #113 in section in scoring defense. That form gets a real test against Marietta, whose offense ranks #48 in section (40.4 points per game).

Something changed for North Cobb's pass defense after its first 3 games. North Cobb allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt (614 yards on 85 attempts) over its first 3 games (2-1), #198 in section during that stretch. In the 6 games since that slow start (5-1), the Warriors have allowed 5.1 yards per pass attempt (692 yards on 137 attempts), a 30% drop, #36 in section over that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: North Cobb's last 6 opponents have averaged 8.1 yards per attempt, a #203 passing attack in section on the season, against 9.1 yards per attempt, #123 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.1 yards per attempt), North Cobb held those passing attacks 38% below their usual yards per attempt. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #188 in section, well below the first 3 (#48), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, North Cobb ranks #45 in section in pass defense. Marietta's passing game sits in the middle of the pack, #136 in section (9.0 yards per attempt).

The Warriors allowed 6.8 yards per play (1,044 yards on 153 snaps) over their first 3 games (2-1), #283 in section over that timeframe. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 6 games since that slow start (5-1), North Cobb has allowed 5.0 yards per play (1,504 yards on 302 snaps), a 27% drop, #55 in section over that span. The schedule deserves some of the credit: North Cobb's last 6 opponents have averaged 6.4 yards per play, a #233 offense in section on the season, against 8.1 yards per play, #84 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.4 yards per play), North Cobb held those offenses 22% below their usual yards per snap. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #188 in section, well below the first 3 (#48), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Warriors rank #93 in section in yards per play allowed. That form gets a real test against Marietta, whose offense ranks #94 in section (7.8 yards per play).

North Cobb's run defense has been gashed on the ground as the season has progressed. North Cobb allowed 4.8 yards per carry (630 yards on 132 rushes) over its first 6 games (4-2), #128 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (3-0), the Warriors have allowed 6.1 yards per carry (612 yards on 101 rushes), a 27% rise, #245 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: North Cobb's last 3 opponents have averaged 6.1 yards per carry, a #175 rushing attack in section on the season, against 5.6 yards per carry, #224 for the first 6. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #190 in section, well below the first 6 (#93), which makes the dip harder to excuse. On the season, North Cobb ranks #171 in section in run defense. It won't get any easier against Marietta, whose ground game ranks #104 in section (6.8 yards per carry).