In short: Mesquite Wildcats high school football (Gilbert, AZ), 2026 season: 4-5. Last game: L 0-48 vs Snowflake on October 22, 2026. Next: vs Poston Butte, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 4-5 this season |
| LAST GAME | L 0-48 vs SNOWFLAKE |
| NEXT GAME | POSTON BUTTE (10/30/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 65.4 · Rush Off 17.5 · Pass Def 71.6 · Rush Def 43.4 |
| LEAGUE | 4A DESERT SKY |
| ENROLLMENT | 1,411 STUDENTS (2023-24) · PUBLIC HIGH SCHOOL |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MESQUITE | 65.4 (+19) | 17.5 (-89) | 71.6 (-35) | 43.4 (+10) |
Next: vs Poston Butte, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Poston Butte at Mesquite.
The number to watch when Mesquite meets Poston Butte is Mesquite's scoring defense. Mesquite allowed 17.8 points per game over its first 5 games (3-2), #64 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Wildcats have allowed 43.0 points per game, a 142% rise, #222 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Mesquite's last 4 opponents have averaged 31.2 points per game, a #89 offense in section on the season, against 25.0 points per game, #142 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (31.2 points per game), Mesquite allowed 38% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #68 in section, well above the first 5 (#160), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Poston Butte's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Broncos have averaged 17.2 points per game over their last 4 games (2-2), #176 in section during that time. Those games came against some of the better scoring defenses in section (16.4 points per game on the season, which would rank #48). Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. Mesquite is 2-0 this season when it holds opponents under 14, and 2-5 when it doesn't.
The turnover battle could decide Mesquite's next game, against Poston Butte, and the recent returns favor Poston Butte. Mesquite committed 1.2 giveaways per game over its first 5 games (3-2), #71 in section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Wildcats have committed 2.2 giveaways per game, an 88% rise, #187 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Mesquite's last 4 opponents have averaged 2.0 per game, a #65 defense in section on the season, against 1.8 per game, #86 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (2.0 per game), Mesquite turned it over 14% more than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #68 in section, well above the first 5 (#160), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Poston Butte's defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Broncos have forced 0.5 takeaways per game over their last 4 games (2-2), #219 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better offenses in section (1.2 per game on the season, which would rank #68). Against those norms, Poston Butte forced 59% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.
Mesquite's passing game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Mesquite averaged 7.6 yards per pass attempt (1,559 yards on 204 attempts) on the season, #121 in section, but that number is boosted by a 424-yard game on 22 attempts against Greenway on 9/25. In all other games, Mesquite is at 6.2 yards per pass attempt (1,135 yards on 182 attempts), a figure that would rank #163 in section. Context matters here: Greenway's pass defense ranks among the weakest in section (13.2 yards per attempt, #240 of 251), so that game says more about the opponent than about the unit itself. Against Poston Butte, Mesquite draws a middle-of-the-pack pass defense (8.4 yards per attempt, #145), so expect something closer to the 6.2 version.
The biggest worry in Mesquite's season has been the direction of its offense. The Wildcats averaged 27.2 points per game over their first 5 games (3-2), #123 in section within that period. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), Mesquite has averaged 11.2 points per game, a 59% drop, #219 in section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Mesquite's last 4 opponents have averaged 16.4 points per game, a #48 scoring defense in section on the season, against 25.7 points per game, #141 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (16.4 points per game), Mesquite scored 32% less than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #68 in section, well above the first 5 (#160), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Mesquite was held to 14 points or fewer 3 times in those games, including 0 against Eastmark on 10/2. On the season, the Wildcats rank #164 in section in scoring. Poston Butte's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #111 in section (22.3 points per game). Mesquite is 4-0 this season when it scores 23 or more, and 0-5 when it doesn't.
Mesquite's defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Mesquite forced 2.4 takeaways per game over its first 5 games (3-2), #36 in section during those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Wildcats have forced 1.0 takeaways per game, a 58% drop, #166 in section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Mesquite's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.2 per game, a #68 offense in section on the season, against 1.7 per game, #157 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.2 per game), Mesquite forced 18% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #68 in section, well above the first 5 (#160), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Mesquite ranks #87 in section in takeaways. It won't get any easier against Poston Butte, whose ball security ranks #44 in section (1.0 per game).
Something changed for Mesquite's defense after the first 5 games of the season. The Wildcats allowed 5.2 yards per play (1,364 yards on 260 snaps) over their first 5 games (3-2), #48 in section during that stretch. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), Mesquite has allowed 8.2 yards per play (1,243 yards on 151 snaps), a 57% rise, #171 in section over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.7 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.9 yards per play), Mesquite allowed 19% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #68 in section, well above the first 5 (#160), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Wildcats rank #94 in section in yards per play allowed. Poston Butte's offense, #215 of 230 (4.1 yards per play), could be the get-right matchup Mesquite needs.
Mesquite's run defense has allowed more yards per carry as the season has worn on. Mesquite allowed 5.3 yards per carry (757 yards on 142 rushes) over its first 5 games (3-2), #86 in section over that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Wildcats have allowed 7.9 yards per carry (732 yards on 93 rushes), a 48% rise, #184 in section over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.3 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.3 yards per carry), Mesquite allowed 25% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #68 in section, well above the first 5 (#160), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Mesquite ranks #132 in section in run defense. Poston Butte's ground game, #205 of 230 (3.6 yards per carry), could be the get-right matchup Mesquite needs.
• Club The last time Mesquite went a game allowing 200+ passing yards was October 17, 2024 against Arcadia (L, 10-42). Since then Mesquite has gone 23 straight games holding the opponent under 200 passing yards, a school-record 23 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club The last time Mesquite went a game averaging 5.0+ yards per carry was September 12, 2025 against Maryvale (W, 48-6). Since then Mesquite has gone 17 straight games being held under 5.0 yards per carry, a school-record 17 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Mesquite has gone 9 straight games being held under 150 rushing yards (August 28, 2026 through October 22, 2026), going 4-5 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2023 (13 games).
• Club Mesquite has gone 4 straight games being held under 7.0 yards per play (October 2, 2026 through October 22, 2026), going 1-3 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2023 (9 games).
• Player Colten Mcroberts has 30 tackles over his last 3 games (10.0 a game, November 7, 2025 through September 4, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Eason Hopper has 25 tackles over his last 3 games (8.3 a game, August 28, 2026 through September 17, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Samari Mercado-layfield has never had a game recording 100+ receiving yards for Mesquite, over a 12-game career on record. His career high is 85, set October 17, 2024 against Arcadia (L, 10-42).
• Player Samari Mercado-layfield has gone 6 straight games without catching a touchdown pass. The last time he caught a touchdown pass was October 17, 2024 against Arcadia (L, 10-42) — 1 TD catch.
Mesquite has played a tougher-than-average schedule in the pool so far (#102 of 260), and what is left is a middle-of-the-road slate (#84 of 149).
From the games on file through Sep 17.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Sep 17 game; last updated Sep 23; roster and numbers checked Oct 6.
| PASSING | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| 8 | CLAYTON NEWBROUGH | 4 | 23/40 | 57.5% | 297 | 7.4 | 2 | 0 | 136.4 |
| 11 | ANGELO OROZCO | 4 | 26/44 | 59.1% | 295 | 6.7 | 1 | 1 | 118.4 |
| 3 | JAZIAH WARREN | 4 | 1/1 | 100.0% | 39 | 39.0 | 0 | 0 | 427.6 |
| 7 | CASON TOMAS | 1 | 3/3 | 100.0% | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | 0 | 144.8 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 4 | 53/88 | 60.2% | 647 | 7.4 | 3 | 1 | 131.0 | |
| RUSHING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| 26 | MACEO RUIZ | 4 | 48 | 156 | 3.2 | 2 |
| 8 | CLAYTON NEWBROUGH | 4 | 23 | 98 | 4.3 | 1 |
| 3 | JAZIAH WARREN | 4 | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 1 |
| 21 | BRANDON WILLIAMS | 3 | 10 | 13 | 1.3 | 1 |
| 11 | ANGELO OROZCO | 4 | 14 | 9 | 0.6 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 4 | 97 | 300 | 3.1 | 5 | |
| RECEIVING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | REC | YDS | YPR | TD |
| 8 | CLAYTON NEWBROUGH | 4 | 12 | 151 | 12.6 | 0 |
| 5 | BRAYLON WALL | 4 | 10 | 137 | 13.7 | 1 |
| 3 | JAZIAH WARREN | 4 | 8 | 100 | 12.5 | 0 |
| 15 | DYLAN DIMICELI | 3 | 6 | 93 | 15.5 | 2 |
| 2 | SAMARI MERCADO-LAYFIELD | 2 | 8 | 84 | 10.5 | 0 |
| 22 | THOMAS PARKINSON | 3 | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 |
| 85 | TY SALLEE | 2 | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| 12 | NOAH REYES | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 4 | 49 | 639 | 13.0 | 3 | |
| DEFENSE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | TCKL | TFL | SACKS | INT | INT YDS | PD | FF |
| 9 | EASON HOPPER | 3 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 42 | COLTEN MCROBERTS | 2 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 33 | HUNTER THUE | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 23 | KHYREE NEWLEY | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | KNIGHTON BAXTER | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | NOAH REYES | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | SAGE SANTIAGO | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 54 | CJ CHAIRA | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 52 | JACK FLEMING | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 50 | RJ STEELE | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 44 | JESSE MANNING | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | BRAYLON WALL | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | BRANDON WILLIAMS | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 45 | GAVIN LEWIS | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 74 | ISAIAH GORDON | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | JESSE ACEVES | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 | TREY COLEMAN | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | ANGELO OROZCO | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | JAZIAH WARREN | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | DYLAN DIMICELI | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | MASON PATTULLO | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 51 | AHLON EADY | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | SAUL LOPEZ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | THOMAS PARKINSON | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 4 | 150 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 5 | |
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2022 | 1-9 | 121 | 375 | 12.1 |
| 2023 | 5-5 | 246 | 172 | 24.6 |
| 2024 | 2-8 | 128 | 432 | 12.8 |
| 2025 | 5-6 | 314 | 372 | 28.5 |
| 2026 | 4-5 | 181 | 261 | 20.1 |
| 2022-26 | 17-33 | 19.8 |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/28 | DESERT SUNRISE | vs | W | 34-0 | |
| 09/04 | MARCOS DE NIZA | at | L | 13-27 | |
| 09/11 | MARYVALE | at | W | 30-28 | |
| 09/17 | ST. MARY'S | vs | L | 6-28 | |
| 09/25 | GREENWAY | at | W | 53-6 | |
| 10/02 | EASTMARK | vs | L | 0-42 | |
| 10/09 | ARCADIA | at | L | 0-38 | |
| 10/16 | COMBS | at | W | 45-44 | |
| 10/22 | SNOWFLAKE | vs | L | 0-48 | |
| 10/30 | POSTON BUTTE | vs | PROJ | 22-25 | 45.2% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 4-5 | 1 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 4-5 so far | 4-6 (55%) | 4.5-5.5 |
| League | 1-3 so far | 1-3 (100%) | 1.0-3.0 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 9 | 20.1 | 29.0 | 236.4 | 325.9 | 44.7 | 51.4 |
| HOME | 4 | 10.0 | 29.5 | 207.8 | 351.8 | 45.8 | 48.2 |
| ROAD | 5 | 28.2 | 28.6 | 259.4 | 300.0 | 43.8 | 54.5 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 8/28 | vs. Desert Sunrise | W 34-0 | 120 | 137 | 257 | 135 | 18 | 153 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
| 9/4 | @ Marcos de Niza | L 13-27 | 205 | -3 | 202 | 81 | 301 | 382 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 9/11 | @ Maryvale | W 30-28 | 98 | 123 | 221 | 198 | 182 | 380 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 |
| 9/17 | vs. St. Mary's | L 6-28 | 224 | 43 | 267 | 171 | 200 | 371 | -- | 0 | 1 | 3 | +2 |
| 9/25 | @ Greenway | W 53-6 | 424 | 53 | 477 | 22 | 56 | 78 | -- | -- | -- | 3 | +2 |
| 10/2 | vs. Eastmark | L 0-42 | 106 | 79 | 185 | 160 | 227 | 387 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -3 |
| 10/9 | @ Arcadia | L 0-38 | 10 | -21 | -11 | 167 | 193 | 360 | -- | -- | -- | 1 | +1 |
| 10/16 | @ Combs | W 45-44 | 292 | 116 | 408 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -3 |
| 10/22 | vs. Snowflake | L 0-48 | 80 | 42 | 122 | 184 | 312 | 496 | -- | -- | -- | 3 | 0 |
| AVERAGES | 173.2 | 63.2 | 236.4 | 139.8 | 186.1 | 325.9 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.8 | +1 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 8/9, sacks/INT 4/9, sacks allowed 3/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 65.4/100 (+19 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 17.5/100 (-89 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 71.6/100 (-35 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 43.4/100 (+10 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-10-30 | vs | POSTON BUTTE | 3-6 | 13.1 |
LAST YEAR
MES finished 2025 at 5-6. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 43-40 over DESERT SUNRISE (DESERT SUNRISE finished 73% that season). Toughest loss: 22-29 to COCONINO (7-point margin).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | RECORD | PF | PA | TOT YDS | YDS ALLOWED |
| 2025-08-28 | DESERT SUNRISE | W | 1-0 | 43 | 40 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-05 | MARCOS DE NIZA | L | 1-1 | 19 | 42 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-12 | MARYVALE | W | 2-1 | 48 | 6 | 306 | 174 |
| 2025-09-18 | ST. MARY'S | L | 2-2 | 28 | 49 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-26 | GREENWAY | W | 3-2 | 50 | 27 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-03 | EASTMARK | W | 4-2 | 39 | 34 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-10 | ARCADIA | L | 4-3 | 21 | 63 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-17 | COMBS | L | 4-4 | 0 | 34 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-24 | SNOWFLAKE | L | 4-5 | 13 | 41 | 213 | 463 |
| 2025-10-31 | POSTON BUTTE | W | 5-5 | 31 | 7 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-07 | COCONINO | L | 5-6 | 22 | 29 | N/A | N/A |
| TOTALS | 11 GMS | 5-6 | 5-6 | 314 | 372 | 519 (2) | 637 (2) |
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
• MES holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.999), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• MES averages 6.0+ yards per play (.999), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• MES holds its opponents under 100 rushing yards (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• MES holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry (.800), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• MES's offense has failed to reach 150 rush yds in 9 straight games (08/28/2026-10/22/2026), going 4-5 over that stretch.
• MES's offense has failed to reach 5.0 YPC in 9 straight games (08/28/2026-10/22/2026), going 4-5 over that stretch.
• MES's offense has averaged 1.2 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 3.9 YPC. (-68%)
• MES holds its opponents under 193.0 rushing yards (MES's own median) (.800)
• MES holds its opponents under 5.1 yards per carry (MES's own median) (.800)
• MES holds its opponents under 6.9 yards per play (MES's own median) (.800)
• MES's offense has averaged 45.7 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 109.2 rush yards per game. (-58%)
• MES's offense has averaged 182.4 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 27-game average is 118.4 pass yards per game. (+54%)
• MES's offense has averaged 2.9 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 5.9 YPP. (-50%)
• MES is 6-1 (.857) in games decided by 8 points or fewer
• MES rushes for 95.0+ yards (MES's own median) (.643)
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
MES -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 14 scored; vs 487 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | Rush Yds 100+ | 9-3 | .750 | 31.3 | W4 | 0.864 |
| 2 | DEF | Turnovers 1+ | 4-5 | .444 | 24.7 | L2 | 0.601 |
| 3 | DEF | Pass Yds < 200 | 4-6 | .400 | 26.4 | L3 | 0.567 |
| 4 | OFF | Turnovers 1+ | 4-6 | .400 | 21.8 | L1 | 0.533 |
| 5 | OFF | Turnovers < 3 | 4-5 | .444 | 23.0 | L1 | 0.523 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- MES ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MES rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 7-3 | .700 | 29.2 | W3 |
| MES holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt and under 5.0 yards per carry | 4-0 | .999 | 10.0 | W4 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| MES | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 7-3 | .700 | 29.2 |
| MES | YPA < 8.0 & YPC < 5.0 | 4-0 | .999 | 10.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 3-1 | .750 | 34.5 | W2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 2-6 | .250 | 14.2 | L3 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 3-2 | .600 | 31.2 | W2 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 7-15 | .318 | 17.0 | L3 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 9-3 | .750 | 31.3 | W4 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-14 | .067 | 10.3 | L3 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 5-1 | .833 | 32.7 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 5-16 | .238 | 15.9 | L1 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 48.0 | W1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 4-7 | .364 | 18.5 | L1 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 4-0 | 1.000 | 45.0 | W4 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-7 | .125 | 9.0 | L4 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 50.5 | W2 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-7 | .300 | 15.1 | L1 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-6 | .400 | 21.8 | L1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-1 | .500 | 17.0 | L1 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-3 | .400 | 17.6 | L1 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-2 | .333 | 15.0 | L1 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-8 | .000 | 1.6 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-7 | .000 | 14.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 2-4 | .333 | 23.2 |
| Scores 30-39 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 33.5 |
| Scores 40+ | 5-0 | 1.000 | 47.8 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 3-1 | .750 | 34.5 | W2 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-4 | .200 | 8.6 | L3 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 2-2 | .500 | 29.2 | W2 |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 2-3 | .400 | 12.8 | L3 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 36.3 | W3 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-5 | .167 | 12.0 | L3 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 4-5 | .444 | 20.1 | L1 |
| YPC 5.0+ | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| YPC < 5.0 | 4-5 | .444 | 20.1 | L1 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 44.0 | W3 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-5 | .167 | 8.2 | L4 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 53.0 | W1 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-5 | .375 | 16.0 | L1 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-4 | .429 | 21.0 | L1 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-1 | .500 | 17.0 | L1 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-3 | .400 | 17.6 | L1 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-2 | .333 | 15.0 | L1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-4 | .000 | 1.5 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-1 | .000 | 13.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 30-39 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 32.0 |
| Scores 40+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 49.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-5 | .000 | 42.2 | L5 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 4-2 | .667 | 15.8 | W1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-1 | .000 | 42.0 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 4-6 | .400 | 26.4 | L3 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 1-7 | .125 | 36.8 | L4 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 4.0 | W3 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 1-7 | .125 | 36.8 | L4 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 4.0 | W3 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 0-6 | .000 | 37.3 | L6 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 4-1 | .800 | 16.4 | W4 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 0-7 | .000 | 38.0 | L7 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 10.0 | W4 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-5 | .000 | 37.2 | L5 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 4-2 | .667 | 20.0 | L1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-5 | .444 | 24.7 | L2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-2 | .333 | 42.7 | W1 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 3-4 | .429 | 26.3 | L1 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 2-3 | .400 | 30.2 | L1 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 4.8 |
| Allows 10-19 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 20-29 | 4-3 | .571 | 26.1 |
| Allows 30-39 | 1-2 | .333 | 35.3 |
| Allows 40+ | 2-14 | .125 | 47.3 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-3 | .000 | 42.7 | L3 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 3-2 | .600 | 17.8 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-5 | .375 | 27.1 | L3 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 1-5 | .167 | 35.2 | L4 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 3.0 | W2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 1-5 | .167 | 35.2 | L4 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 3.0 | W2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 0-5 | .000 | 36.6 | L5 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 11.3 | W3 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 0-5 | .000 | 36.6 | L5 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 11.3 | W3 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-4 | .000 | 36.2 | L4 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-1 | .750 | 18.0 | L1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-4 | .429 | 25.0 | L2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-1 | .500 | 43.0 | W1 | |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-3 | .400 | 27.4 | L1 | |
| Turnovers > 2 | 2-2 | .500 | 27.5 | L1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 3.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-2 | .333 | 27.7 |
| Allows 30-39 | 0-1 | .000 | 38.0 |
| Allows 40+ | 1-2 | .333 | 44.7 |
MESQUITE
• MESQUITE has allowed 30+ in 4 straight games (10/2/26–10/22/26). It has not allowed 30+ in 5 straight since 9/6/24–11/1/24 (2024).
• MESQUITE has committed 2+ turnovers in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/22/26). It has not committed 2+ turnovers in 3 straight since 9/8/23–9/29/23 (2023).
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| MES | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 34.5 | W2 |
| MES | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 8 | 2-6 | .250 | 14.2 | L3 |
| MES | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 31.2 | W2 |
| MES | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 22 | 7-15 | .318 | 17.0 | L3 |
| MES | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 12 | 9-3 | .750 | 31.3 | W4 |
| MES | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 15 | 1-14 | .067 | 10.3 | L3 |
| MES | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 32.7 | W1 |
| MES | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 21 | 5-16 | .238 | 15.9 | L1 |
| MES | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 48.0 | W1 |
| MES | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 11 | 4-7 | .364 | 18.5 | L1 |
| MES | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 45.0 | W4 |
| MES | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 9.0 | L4 |
| MES | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 50.5 | W2 |
| MES | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 10 | 3-7 | .300 | 15.1 | L1 |
| MES | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 10 | 4-6 | .400 | 21.8 | L1 |
| MES | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 17.0 | L1 |
| MES | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 17.6 | L1 |
| MES | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 15.0 | L1 |
| MES | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 8 | 0-8 | .000 | 1.6 | L8 |
| MES | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 7 | 0-7 | .000 | 14.0 | L7 |
| MES | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 23.2 | L3 |
| MES | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 33.5 | W4 |
| MES | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 5 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 47.8 | W5 |
| MES | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 42.2 | L5 |
| MES | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 15.8 | W1 |
| MES | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 42.0 | L1 |
| MES | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 10 | 4-6 | .400 | 26.4 | L3 |
| MES | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 36.8 | L4 |
| MES | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 4.0 | W3 |
| MES | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 36.8 | L4 |
| MES | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 4.0 | W3 |
| MES | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 6 | 0-6 | .000 | 37.3 | L6 |
| MES | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 16.4 | W4 |
| MES | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 7 | 0-7 | .000 | 38.0 | L7 |
| MES | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 10.0 | W4 |
| MES | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 37.2 | L5 |
| MES | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 20.0 | L1 |
| MES | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 9 | 4-5 | .444 | 24.7 | L2 |
| MES | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 42.7 | W1 |
| MES | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 26.3 | L1 |
| MES | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 30.2 | L1 |
| MES | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 4.8 | W4 |
| MES | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 7 | 4-3 | .571 | 26.1 | L1 |
| MES | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 35.3 | L2 |
| MES | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 16 | 2-14 | .125 | 47.3 | L1 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 9 games | 08/28/2026 - 10/22/2026 | 4-5 |
| OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 9 games | 08/28/2026 - 10/22/2026 | 4-5 |
| OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 4 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/22/2026 | 1-3 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
| MES | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 9 games | 08/28/2026 - 10/22/2026 | 4-5 |
| MES | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 9 games | 08/28/2026 - 10/22/2026 | 4-5 |
| MES | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 4 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/22/2026 | 1-3 |
MES OFFENSE
MES's offense has averaged 1.2 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 3.9 YPC. (-68%)
MES's offense has averaged 45.7 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 109.2 rush yards per game. (-58%)
MES's offense has averaged 182.4 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 27-game average is 118.4 pass yards per game. (+54%)
MES's offense has averaged 2.9 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 5.9 YPP. (-50%)
MES's offense has averaged 2.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 1.5 giveaways per game. (+33%)
MES's offense has averaged 4.7 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 6.8 YPA. (-32%)
MES's offense has averaged 15.0 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 20.8 points scored per game. (-28%)
MES's offense has averaged 173.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 227.7 total yards per game. (-24%)
MES DEFENSE
MES's defense has averaged 252.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 186.7 rush yards per game. (+35%)
MES's defense has averaged 9.2 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 7.0 YPA. (+32%)
MES's defense has averaged 7.7 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 5.9 YPC. (+32%)
MES's defense has averaged 8.2 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 6.3 YPP. (+30%)
MES's defense has averaged 428.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 329.3 total yards per game. (+30%)
MES's defense has averaged 1.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 1.8 takeaways per game. (-24%)
MES's defense has averaged 175.5 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 142.5 pass yards per game. (+23%)
MES's defense has averaged 43.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 35.5 points allowed per game. (+22%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| MES | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 175.5 | 11 | 142.5 | +23.1% | |
| MES | OFFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 5 | 182.4 | 27 | 118.4 | +54.0% | |
| MES | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 43.3 | 30 | 35.5 | +22.1% | |
| MES | OFFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 15.0 | 30 | 20.8 | -27.8% | |
| MES | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 252.5 | 11 | 186.7 | +35.2% | |
| MES | OFFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 45.7 | 27 | 109.2 | -58.2% | |
| MES | DEFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 428.0 | 11 | 329.3 | +30.0% | |
| MES | OFFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 173.0 | 27 | 227.7 | -24.0% | |
| MES | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 1.3 | 12 | 1.8 | -23.8% | |
| MES | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 2.0 | 12 | 1.5 | +33.3% | |
| MES | DEFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 9.2 | 11 | 7.0 | +32.1% | |
| MES | OFFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 4.7 | 12 | 6.8 | -31.8% | |
| MES | DEFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 7.7 | 11 | 5.9 | +31.6% | |
| MES | OFFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 1.2 | 12 | 3.9 | -68.4% | |
| MES | DEFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 8.2 | 11 | 6.3 | +30.2% | |
| MES | OFFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 2.9 | 12 | 5.9 | -50.4% |
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -3.6 in 2022 to 0.9 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
