Next: vs Lamesa, Fri 6 Nov. Matchup report: Lamesa at Kermit.

The turnover battle could decide Kermit's next game, against Lamesa, and the recent returns favor Lamesa. Kermit committed 1.4 giveaways per game over its first 5 games (1-4), #686 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (0-4), the Yellow Jackets have committed 3.5 giveaways per game, a 150% rise, #1196 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Kermit's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.9 per game, a #187 defense in section on the season, against 1.4 per game, #443 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.9 per game), Kermit turned it over 80% more than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #480 in section, well above the first 5 (#727), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Lamesa's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Golden Tornadoes have forced 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 4 games (0-4), #585 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (1.4 per game on the season, which would rank #750). Against those norms, Lamesa forced 27% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Lamesa offers Kermit a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.

The number to watch when Kermit meets Lamesa is Kermit's scoring defense. Kermit allowed 29.5 points per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #664 in section through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (0-5), the Yellow Jackets have allowed 49.6 points per game, a 68% rise, #1128 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Kermit's last 5 opponents have averaged 37.9 points per game, a #307 offense in section on the season, against 29.7 points per game, #597 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (37.9 points per game), Kermit allowed 31% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #479 in section, well above the first 4 (#791), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Lamesa's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Golden Tornadoes have averaged 18.0 points per game over their last 5 games (0-5), #952 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better scoring defenses in section (23.9 points per game on the season, which would rank #399). Against those norms, Lamesa scored 25% less than those defenses usually allow. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.

The biggest worry in Kermit's season has been the direction of its offense. Kermit averaged 28.0 points per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #635 in section within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (0-5), the Yellow Jackets have averaged 11.8 points per game, a 58% drop, #1096 in section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Kermit's last 5 opponents have averaged 25.4 points per game, a #474 scoring defense in section on the season, against 27.7 points per game, #573 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (25.4 points per game), Kermit scored 54% less than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #479 in section, well above the first 4 (#791), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Kermit was held to 14 points or fewer 4 times in those games, including 6 against Jim Ned on 10/9. On the season, Kermit ranks #970 in section in scoring. Lamesa's defense, #1215 of 1235 (56.0 points per game), could be the get-right matchup Kermit needs.

Kermit's defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Yellow Jackets forced 2.0 takeaways per game over their first 4 games (1-3), #196 in section during those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (0-5), Kermit has forced 1.0 takeaways per game, a 50% drop, #625 in section during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.3 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.3 per game), Kermit forced 23% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #479 in section, well above the first 4 (#791), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Yellow Jackets rank #443 in section in takeaways. Lamesa's ball security sits in the middle of the pack, #911 in section (1.6 per game).

Something changed for Kermit's offense after the first 5 games of the season. Kermit averaged 7.3 yards per play (1,655 yards on 227 snaps) over its first 5 games (1-4), #412 in section during that stretch. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (0-4), the Yellow Jackets have averaged 4.6 yards per play (824 yards on 178 snaps), a 37% drop, #849 in section over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Kermit's last 4 opponents have averaged 6.3 yards per play, a #429 defense in section on the season, against 7.2 yards per play, #733 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.3 yards per play), Kermit gained 27% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #480 in section, well above the first 5 (#727), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Kermit ranks #690 in section in yards per play. Lamesa's defense, #1199 of 1234 (11.5 yards per play), could be the get-right matchup Kermit needs.

One of Kermit's shakiest areas lately has been its ground game. The Yellow Jackets averaged 6.3 yards per carry (1,005 yards on 159 rushes) over their first 6 games (1-5), #419 in section over that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), Kermit has averaged 3.7 yards per carry (305 yards on 83 rushes), a 42% drop, #789 in section over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Kermit's last 3 opponents have averaged 5.1 yards per carry, a #348 run defense in section on the season, against 6.4 yards per carry, #728 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.1 yards per carry), Kermit ran for 29% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #444 in section, well above the first 6 (#704), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Yellow Jackets rank #632 in section in rushing. Lamesa's run defense, #1120 of 1234 (8.8 yards per carry), could be the get-right matchup Kermit needs.

Kermit's passing game has misfired through the air as the season has progressed. Kermit averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt (603 yards on 71 attempts) over its first 4 games (1-3), #392 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (0-5), the Yellow Jackets have averaged 6.2 yards per pass attempt (566 yards on 92 attempts), a 28% drop, #761 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Kermit's last 5 opponents have averaged 7.3 yards per attempt, a #427 pass defense in section on the season, against 9.2 yards per attempt, #855 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.3 yards per attempt), Kermit threw for 16% less per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #479 in section, well above the first 4 (#791), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Kermit ranks #649 in section in passing. Lamesa's pass defense, #1218 of 1234 (14.8 yards per attempt), could be the get-right matchup Kermit needs.