Next: vs Clyde, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Clyde at Jim Ned.

The turnover battle could decide Jim Ned's next game, against Clyde, and the recent returns favor Jim Ned. Jim Ned forced 0.8 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (0-4), #829 in section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (2-2), the Indians have forced 3.2 takeaways per game, a 333% rise, #20 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Jim Ned's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.8 per game, a #999 offense in section on the season, against 1.2 per game, #580 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.8 per game), Jim Ned forced 79% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #580 in section, well below the first 4 (#213), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Clyde's ball security has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Bulldogs have committed 0.2 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (4-0), #66 in section during that time. Those games came against some of the better defenses in section (1.5 per game on the season, which would rank #395). Against those norms, Clyde turned it over 84% less than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #948 in section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Jim Ned's surging defense meets one of section's better units in Clyde's.

The number to watch when Jim Ned meets Clyde is Jim Ned's scoring. Jim Ned averaged 9.8 points per game over its first 4 games (0-4), #1174 in section through those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (2-2), the Indians have averaged 41.2 points per game, a 323% rise, #286 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Jim Ned's last 4 opponents have averaged 39.0 points per game, a #1002 scoring defense in section on the season, against 24.8 points per game, #449 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (39.0 points per game), Jim Ned scored 6% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #580 in section, well below the first 4 (#213), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Clyde's defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Bulldogs have allowed 16.8 points per game over their last 4 games (4-0), #226 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the weaker offenses in section (20.4 points per game on the season, which would rank #924). Against those norms, Clyde held those offenses 18% below what they usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #948 in section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Jim Ned's surging offense meets one of section's better units in Clyde's. Jim Ned is 2-1 this season when it scores 20 or more, and 0-5 when it doesn't.

The biggest shift in Jim Ned's season has come in its passing game. Jim Ned averaged 5.2 yards per pass attempt (506 yards on 97 attempts) over its first 4 games (0-4), #847 in section within that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (2-2), the Indians have averaged 10.7 yards per pass attempt (1,002 yards on 94 attempts), a 104% rise, #193 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Jim Ned's last 4 opponents have averaged 10.0 yards per attempt, a #996 pass defense in section on the season, against 7.5 yards per attempt, #489 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (10.0 yards per attempt), Jim Ned threw for 6% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #580 in section, well below the first 4 (#213), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Jim Ned ranks #529 in section in passing. Clyde's pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #435 in section (7.4 yards per attempt).

The Indians averaged 4.4 yards per play (981 yards on 224 snaps) over their first 4 games (0-4), #928 in section during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 4 games since that slow start (2-2), Jim Ned has averaged 7.5 yards per play (1,601 yards on 214 snaps), a 71% rise, #373 in section during that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Jim Ned's last 4 opponents have averaged 8.0 yards per play, a #929 defense in section on the season, against 6.3 yards per play, #425 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.0 yards per play), Jim Ned gained 6% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #580 in section, well below the first 4 (#213), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Indians rank #748 in section in yards per play. Clyde's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #377 in section (6.1 yards per play).

Jim Ned's defense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. Jim Ned allowed 39.8 points per game over its first 5 games (0-5), #1031 in section during that stretch. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), the Indians have allowed 12.7 points per game, a 68% drop, #157 in section over that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Jim Ned's last 3 opponents have averaged 28.6 points per game, a #653 offense in section on the season, against 36.3 points per game, #359 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (28.6 points per game), Jim Ned held those offenses 56% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #754 in section, well below the first 5 (#187), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Only Sweetwater broke through in that span, putting up 32 on 10/16. On the season, Jim Ned ranks #675 in section in scoring defense. That form gets a real test against Clyde, whose offense ranks #12 in section (55.8 points per game).

Something changed for Jim Ned's ground game after its first 4 games. The Indians averaged 3.7 yards per carry (475 yards on 127 rushes) over their first 4 games (0-4), #907 in section over that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (2-2), Jim Ned has averaged 5.0 yards per carry (599 yards on 120 rushes), a 33% rise, #639 in section over that span. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Jim Ned's last 4 opponents have averaged 6.4 yards per carry, a #744 run defense in section on the season, against 5.5 yards per carry, #482 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.4 yards per carry), Jim Ned ran for 22% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #580 in section, well below the first 4 (#213), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Indians rank #876 in section in rushing. Clyde's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #366 in section (5.2 yards per carry).