In short: Jarrell Cougars high school football (Jarrell, TX), 2026 season: 7-1. Last game: L 20-42 vs Stephenville on October 23, 2026. Next: vs China Spring, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 7-1 this season |
| LAST GAME | L 20-42 vs STEPHENVILLE |
| NEXT GAME | CHINA SPRING (10/30/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 48.4 · Rush Off 67.3 · Pass Def 64.7 · Rush Def 51.0 |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JARRELL | 48.4 (-18) | 67.3 (+29) | 64.7 (-25) | 51.0 (-5) |
Next: vs China Spring, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: China Spring at Jarrell.
The number to watch when Jarrell meets China Spring is Jarrell's scoring defense. Jarrell allowed 12.5 points per game over its first 4 games (4-0), #76 in section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that hot start (3-1), the Cougars have allowed 25.8 points per game, a 106% rise, #505 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Jarrell's last 4 opponents have averaged 32.2 points per game, a #491 offense in section on the season, against 22.0 points per game, #875 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (32.2 points per game), Jarrell held those offenses 20% below what they usually score. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #301 in section, well above the first 4 (#882), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, China Spring's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Cougars have averaged 26.0 points per game over their last 4 games (1-3), #726 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in section (29.0 points per game on the season, which would rank #642). Against those norms, China Spring scored 10% less than those defenses usually allow. China Spring offers Jarrell a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Jarrell is 5-0 this season when it holds opponents under 31, and 2-1 when it doesn't.
The biggest worry in Jarrell's season has been the direction of its offense. Jarrell averaged 43.5 points per game over its first 4 games (4-0), #141 in section through those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (3-1), the Cougars have averaged 36.0 points per game, a 17% drop, #412 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Jarrell's last 4 opponents have averaged 27.3 points per game, a #565 scoring defense in section on the season, against 38.5 points per game, #986 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (27.3 points per game), Jarrell scored 32% more than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #301 in section, well above the first 4 (#882), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Jarrell ranks #242 in section in scoring. China Spring's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #878 in section (35.0 points per game). Jarrell is 5-0 this season when it scores 35 or more, and 2-1 when it doesn't.
• Club The last time Jarrell went a game committing 2+ turnovers was September 2, 2022 against Giddings (L, 14-21). Since then Jarrell has gone 52 straight games committing fewer than 2 turnovers, a school-record 52 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club The last time Jarrell went a game throwing for 200+ yards was November 3, 2023 against Lago Vista (L, 26-49). Since then Jarrell has gone 31 straight games being held under 200 passing yards, a school-record 31 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Jarrell is 16-2 all time when scoring 40+ points. Jarrell's last loss when scoring 40+ points was September 15, 2023 against Hillsboro (L, 44-75).
• Club Jarrell is 13-1 all time when holding the opponent under 5.0 yards per carry. Jarrell's last loss when holding the opponent under 5.0 yards per carry was November 25, 2022 against Wimberley (L, 6-64).
• Club Jarrell is 10-2 all time when holding the opponent under 150 rushing yards. Jarrell's last loss when holding the opponent under 150 rushing yards was October 18, 2024 against Wimberley (L, 8-41).
DATA WARNING: JARRELL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/23/2026 GAME VS. STEPHENVILLE* MISSING
DATA WARNING: JARRELL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/16/2026 GAME @ LAMPASAS* MISSING
DATA WARNING: JARRELL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/09/2026 GAME VS. MARBLE FALLS* MISSING
DATA WARNING: JARRELL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/25/2026 GAME @ MADISONVILLE MISSING
DATA WARNING: JARRELL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/18/2026 GAME VS. EASTSIDE EARLY COLLEGE MISSING
DATA WARNING: JARRELL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/11/2026 GAME @ AUSTIN MISSING
DATA WARNING: JARRELL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/04/2026 GAME VS. MIDLAND CHRISTIAN MISSING
DATA WARNING: JARRELL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 08/28/2026 GAME VS. NAVARRO MISSING
All stat areas in this report are subject to change as box scores are updated.
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2022 | 6-7 | 413 | 395 | 31.8 |
| 2023 | 3-8 | 361 | 436 | 32.8 |
| 2024 | 6-4 | 233 | 202 | 23.3 |
| 2025 | 9-3 | 499 | 322 | 41.6 |
| 2026 | 7-1 | 318 | 153 | 39.8 |
| 2022-26 | 31-23 | 33.8 |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/28 | NAVARRO | vs | W | 57-0 | |
| 09/04 | MIDLAND CHRISTIAN | vs | W | 36-31 | |
| 09/11 | AUSTIN | at | W | 32-13 | |
| 09/18 | EASTSIDE EARLY COLLEGE | vs | W | 49-6 | |
| 09/25 | MADISONVILLE | at | W | 34-31 | |
| 10/09 | MARBLE FALLS | vs | W | 49-7 | |
| 10/16 | LAMPASAS | at | W | 41-23 | |
| 10/23 | STEPHENVILLE | vs | L | 20-42 | |
| 10/30 | CHINA SPRING | vs | PROJ | 42-20 | 87.0% |
| 11/06 | BURNET | at | PROJ | 50-7 | 98.4% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 7-1 | 2 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 7-1 so far | 9-1 (61%) | 8.6-1.4 |
| League | 2-1 so far | 2-1 (100%) | 2.0-1.0 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 8 | 39.8 | 19.1 | -- | 290.0 | -- | 50.2 |
| HOME | 5 | 42.2 | 17.2 | -- | 261.0 | -- | 44.5 |
| ROAD | 3 | 35.7 | 22.3 | -- | 309.3 | -- | 54.0 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Box-score coverage behind YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME: Overall 0/8 game(s), Home 0/5 game(s), Road 0/3 game(s).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 8/28 | vs. Navarro | W 57-0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 9/4 | vs. Midland Christian | W 36-31 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 9/11 | @ Austin | W 32-13 | -- | -- | -- | 81 | 67 | 148 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | 0 |
| 9/18 | vs. Eastside Early College | W 49-6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 9/25 | @ Madisonville | W 34-31 | -- | -- | -- | 84 | 233 | 317 | 0 | -- | -- | 1 | 0 |
| 10/9 | vs. Marble Falls | W 49-7 | -- | -- | -- | 21 | 67 | 88 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | 0 |
| 10/16 | @ Lampasas | W 41-23 | -- | -- | -- | 332 | 131 | 463 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -1 |
| 10/23 | vs. Stephenville | L 20-42 | -- | -- | -- | 259 | 175 | 434 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | 0 |
| AVERAGES | -- | -- | -- | 155.4 | 134.6 | 290.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | 0.2 | -1 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 0/8, defense 5/8, sacks/INT 0/8, sacks allowed 1/8, turnovers 5/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 48.4/100 (-18 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 67.3/100 (+29 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 64.7/100 (-25 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 51.0/100 (-5 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-10-30 | vs | CHINA SPRING | 2-6 | 31.0 |
| 2026-11-06 | at | BURNET | 1-7 | 21.2 |
LAST YEAR
JAR finished 2025 at 9-3. Made the playoffs (2 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 40-29 over LLANO (LLANO finished 87% that season). Toughest loss: 34-35 to WIMBERLEY (1-point margin).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | RECORD | PF | PA | TOT YDS | YDS ALLOWED |
| 2025-08-29 | GIDDINGS | W | 1-0 | 36 | 10 | N/A | 161 |
| 2025-09-05 | MARBLE FALLS | W | 2-0 | 41 | 7 | N/A | 156 |
| 2025-09-12 | CALDWELL | W | 3-0 | 64 | 35 | N/A | 408 |
| 2025-09-19 | LLANO | W | 4-0 | 40 | 29 | N/A | 340 |
| 2025-09-26 | SMITHVILLE | W | 5-0 | 56 | 14 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-03 | LAGO VISTA | W | 6-0 | 35 | 28 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-10 | NAVARRO | W | 7-0 | 35 | 21 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-17 | WIMBERLEY | L | 7-1 | 34 | 35 | 348 | 330 |
| 2025-10-24 | SALADO | W | 8-1 | 43 | 29 | N/A | 230 |
| 2025-11-07 | GONZALES | L | 8-2 | 28 | 34 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-14 | DEVINE | W | 9-2 | 66 | 28 | 403 | 347 |
| 2025-11-21 | SINTON | L | 9-3 | 21 | 52 | 128 | 461 |
| TOTALS | 12 GMS | 9-3 | 9-3 | 499 | 322 | 879 (3) | 2433 (8) |
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
• JAR holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.882), and has won 11 straight when doing so
• JAR holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry (.999), and has won 11 straight when doing so
• JAR holds its opponents under 100 rushing yards (.999), and has won 7 straight when doing so
• JAR holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.786), and has won 5 straight when doing so
• JAR's defense has averaged 0.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 6-game average is 0.5 takeaways per game. (-100%)
• JAR's defense has averaged 204.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 20-game average is 115.7 pass yards per game. (+76%)
• JAR holds its opponents under 4.9 yards per carry (JAR's own median) (.999)
• JAR's offense has averaged 0.5 giveaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 6-game average is 0.3 giveaways per game. (+50%)
• JAR's defense has averaged 8.0 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 20-game average is 6.0 YPA. (+33%)
• JAR's defense has was held under 1 turnover in 3 straight games (10/09/2026-10/23/2026), going 2-1 over that stretch.
• JAR's defense has averaged 124.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 22-game average is 176.5 rush yards per game. (-30%)
• JAR holds its opponents under 5.1 yards per attempt (JAR's own median) (.900)
• JAR holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (JAR's own median) (.818)
• JAR holds its opponents under 180.5 rushing yards (JAR's own median) (.818)
• JAR is 14-3 (.824) at home
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
JAR -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 10 scored; vs 872 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | DEF | YPC < 5 | 11-0 | 1.000 | 15.2 | W11 | 0.881 |
| 2 | DEF | Rush Yds < 150 | 8-1 | .889 | 16.8 | W7 | 0.748 |
| 3 | DEF | YPP < 7 | 15-2 | .882 | 18.4 | W11 | 0.740 |
| 4 | DEF | YPP < 6 | 9-2 | .818 | 13.8 | W6 | 0.656 |
| 5 | DEF | YPA < 8 | 11-3 | .786 | 19.6 | W5 | 0.611 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- JAR ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| JAR holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry and under 150 rushing yards | 8-0 | .999 | 13.8 | W8 |
| JAR holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt and under 5.0 yards per carry | 7-0 | .999 | 13.4 | W7 |
| JAR holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards | 5-0 | .999 | 10.2 | W5 |
| JAR holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play and under 100 rushing yards | 5-0 | .999 | 8.8 | W5 |
| JAR rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 2-2 | .500 | 35.2 | L1 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| JAR | YPC < 5.0 & Rush Yds < 150 | 8-0 | .999 | 13.8 |
| JAR | YPA < 8.0 & YPC < 5.0 | 7-0 | .999 | 13.4 |
| JAR | Rush Yds < 150 & Pass Yds < 200 | 5-0 | .999 | 10.2 |
| JAR | YPP < 6.0 & Rush Yds < 100 | 5-0 | .999 | 8.8 |
| JAR | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 2-2 | .500 | 35.2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 43.0 | W2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 27.5 | L2 | 26 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 2-2 | .500 | 35.2 | L1 | 26 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 2-2 | .500 | 35.2 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 26 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 1-1 | .500 | 50.0 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | L1 | 26 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 50.0 | W1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | L1 | 26 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 50.0 | W1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | L1 | 26 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 66.0 | W1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 25.0 | L2 | 26 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 37.5 | W2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 3-1 | .750 | 30.2 | L1 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 24 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-2 | .000 | 7.5 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-2 | .000 | 14.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 2-3 | .400 | 22.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 9-1 | .900 | 34.2 |
| Scores 40+ | 11-0 | 1.000 | 50.5 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| YPA < 8.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| YPC < 5.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| YPP < 6.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| YPP < 7.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 37.5 | W2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 2-1 | .667 | 33.7 | L1 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 3 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 10-19 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 20-29 | 0-1 | .000 | 20.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 34.0 |
| Scores 40+ | 4-0 | 1.000 | 49.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 3-3 | .500 | 33.5 | L1 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 11-3 | .786 | 19.6 | W5 | 10 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 2-2 | .500 | 33.8 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 12-4 | .750 | 21.2 | W3 | 10 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 8-7 | .533 | 28.7 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 7-0 | 1.000 | 12.4 | W7 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 7-6 | .538 | 28.2 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 8-1 | .889 | 16.8 | W7 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 4-7 | .364 | 31.8 | L1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 11-0 | 1.000 | 15.2 | W11 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 6-5 | .545 | 33.2 | L1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 9-2 | .818 | 13.8 | W6 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-5 | .000 | 41.0 | L5 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 15-2 | .882 | 18.4 | W11 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 29.5 | W2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 3-1 | .750 | 21.2 | L1 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 28.0 | W1 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 24 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 5.4 |
| Allows 10-19 | 7-1 | .875 | 13.6 |
| Allows 20-29 | 7-1 | .875 | 25.6 |
| Allows 30-39 | 3-3 | .500 | 33.5 |
| Allows 40+ | 0-3 | .000 | 45.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 32.5 | L1 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 17.0 | W3 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-1 | .500 | 32.5 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 17.0 | W3 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 2-1 | .667 | 32.0 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 10.0 | W2 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 1-1 | .500 | 36.5 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 14.3 | W3 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 36.5 | L1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 14.3 | W3 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 32.0 | L1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 10.0 | W2 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-1 | .000 | 42.0 | L1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 18.5 | W4 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 31.0 | W1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 3-1 | .750 | 21.2 | L1 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 3 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 4.3 |
| Allows 10-19 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 23.0 |
| Allows 30-39 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 31.0 |
| Allows 40+ | 0-1 | .000 | 42.0 |
JARRELL
• JARRELL has allowed 250+ passing in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• JARRELL has allowed 400+ total yards in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not allowed 400+ total yards in 3 straight since 9/15/23–10/6/23 (2023).
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| JAR | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 43.0 | W2 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 27.5 | L2 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 35.2 | L1 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 35.2 | L1 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 50.0 | W1 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | L1 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 50.0 | W1 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | L1 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 50.0 | W1 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | L1 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 66.0 | W1 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 25.0 | L2 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 37.5 | W2 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 30.2 | L1 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 7.5 | L2 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 14.0 | L2 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 22.0 | L3 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 10 | 9-1 | .900 | 34.2 | W3 |
| JAR | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 11 | 11-0 | 1.000 | 50.5 | W11 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 33.5 | L1 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 14 | 11-3 | .786 | 19.6 | W5 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 33.8 | L1 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 16 | 12-4 | .750 | 21.2 | W3 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 15 | 8-7 | .533 | 28.7 | L1 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 7 | 7-0 | 1.000 | 12.4 | W7 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 13 | 7-6 | .538 | 28.2 | L1 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 9 | 8-1 | .889 | 16.8 | W7 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 11 | 4-7 | .364 | 31.8 | L1 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 11 | 11-0 | 1.000 | 15.2 | W11 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 11 | 6-5 | .545 | 33.2 | L1 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 11 | 9-2 | .818 | 13.8 | W6 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 41.0 | L5 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 17 | 15-2 | .882 | 18.4 | W11 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 29.5 | W2 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 21.2 | L1 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 28.0 | W1 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 5 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 5.4 | W5 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 8 | 7-1 | .875 | 13.6 | W3 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 8 | 7-1 | .875 | 25.6 | W6 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 33.5 | W2 |
| JAR | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 45.0 | L3 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-1 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
| JAR | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-1 |
JAR OFFENSE
JAR's offense has averaged 0.5 giveaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 6-game average is 0.3 giveaways per game. (+50%)
JAR DEFENSE
JAR's defense has averaged 0.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 6-game average is 0.5 takeaways per game. (-100%)
JAR's defense has averaged 204.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 20-game average is 115.7 pass yards per game. (+76%)
JAR's defense has averaged 8.0 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 20-game average is 6.0 YPA. (+33%)
JAR's defense has averaged 124.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 22-game average is 176.5 rush yards per game. (-30%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| JAR | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 204.0 | 20 | 115.7 | +76.3% | |
| JAR | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 124.3 | 22 | 176.5 | -29.5% | |
| JAR | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 0.0 | 6 | 0.5 | -100.0% | |
| JAR | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 5 | 0.5 | 6 | 0.3 | +50.0% | |
| JAR | DEFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 8.0 | 20 | 6.0 | +32.8% |
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -4.0 in 2022 to 6.0 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
From the games on file through Oct 23.
