Next: vs Albany, Fri 6 Nov. Matchup report: Albany at Hamlin.

The turnover battle could decide Hamlin's next game, against Albany, and the recent returns favor Hamlin. Hamlin committed 2.0 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #960 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (1-4), the Pipers have committed 0.7 giveaways per game, a 67% drop, #264 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Hamlin's last 5 opponents have averaged 1.2 per game, a #636 defense in section on the season, against 1.3 per game, #549 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.2 per game), Hamlin turned it over 44% less than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #670 in section, well above the first 4 (#959), which makes the improvement more impressive. Meanwhile, Albany's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Lions have forced 0.8 takeaways per game over their last 5 games (3-2), #797 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (1.0 per game on the season, which would rank #485). Against those norms, Albany forced 24% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Albany offers Hamlin a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.

The number to watch when Hamlin meets Albany is Hamlin's scoring. Hamlin averaged 35.0 points per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #388 in section through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Pipers have averaged 18.2 points per game, a 48% drop, #956 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Hamlin's last 5 opponents have averaged 29.1 points per game, a #647 scoring defense in section on the season, against 32.7 points per game, #802 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (29.1 points per game), Hamlin scored 37% less than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #670 in section, well above the first 4 (#959), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Hamlin was held to 14 points or fewer 3 times in those games, including 0 against Stamford on 10/2. Meanwhile, Albany's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Lions have allowed 25.4 points per game over their last 5 games (3-2), #489 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (30.3 points per game on the season, which would rank #580). Against those norms, Albany held those offenses 16% below what they usually score. Albany offers Hamlin a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Hamlin is 3-0 this season when it scores 28 or more, and 0-6 when it doesn't.

Hamlin's passing game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Hamlin averaged 5.4 yards per pass attempt (595 yards on 111 attempts) on the season, #886 in section, but that number is boosted by a 145-yard game on 13 attempts against Crosbyton on 8/28. In all other games, Hamlin is at 4.6 yards per pass attempt (450 yards on 98 attempts), a figure that would rank #960 in section. Crosbyton's pass defense sits near the middle of the pack (7.7 yards per attempt, #532 of 1232). Albany's pass defense (9.6 yards per attempt, #932 of 1232) gives Hamlin a real chance to look like the season line again.

The biggest worry in Hamlin's season has been the direction of its defense. The Pipers allowed 28.3 points per game over their first 3 games (2-1), #628 in section within that period. In the 6 games since that hot start (1-5), Hamlin has allowed 42.2 points per game, a 49% rise, #1036 in section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Hamlin's last 6 opponents have averaged 32.0 points per game, a #497 offense in section on the season, against 26.0 points per game, #744 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (32.0 points per game), Hamlin allowed 32% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #672 in section, well above the first 3 (#1023), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Pipers rank #957 in section in scoring defense. Albany's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #623 in section (29.1 points per game). Hamlin is 3-1 this season when it holds opponents under 30, and 0-5 when it doesn't.

Hamlin's defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Hamlin allowed 5.1 yards per play (888 yards on 174 snaps) over its first 3 games (2-1), #223 in section during those games. In the 6 games since that hot start (1-5), the Pipers have allowed 6.3 yards per play (995 yards on 157 snaps), a 24% rise, #454 in section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Hamlin's last 6 opponents have averaged 7.3 yards per play, a #411 offense in section on the season, against 5.3 yards per play, #861 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.3 yards per play), Hamlin held those offenses 13% below their usual yards per snap. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #672 in section, well above the first 3 (#1023), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Hamlin ranks #236 in section in yards per play allowed. Albany's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #562 in section (6.7 yards per play).

Something changed for Hamlin's run defense after its first 3 games. The Pipers allowed 4.0 yards per carry (461 yards on 114 rushes) over their first 3 games (2-1), #213 in section during that stretch. In the 6 games since that hot start (1-5), Hamlin has allowed 4.8 yards per carry (516 yards on 107 rushes), a 19% rise, #298 in section over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Hamlin's last 6 opponents have averaged 6.0 yards per carry, a #493 rushing attack in section on the season, against 4.5 yards per carry, #850 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.0 yards per carry), Hamlin held those rushing attacks 19% below their usual yards per carry. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #672 in section, well above the first 3 (#1023), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Pipers rank #174 in section in run defense. Albany's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #615 in section (5.5 yards per carry).