In short: Gatesville Hornets high school football (Gatesville, TX), 2026 season: 4-5. Last game: L 13-30 vs Salado on October 30, 2026. Next: vs Robinson, November 6, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 4-5 this season |
| LAST GAME | L 13-30 vs SALADO |
| NEXT GAME | ROBINSON (11/06/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 62.2 · Rush Off 61.6 · Pass Def 31.5 · Rush Def 78.1 |
| ENROLLMENT | 782 STUDENTS (2024-25) |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GATESVILLE | 62.2 (+12) | 61.6 (+15) | 31.5 (+22) | 78.1 (-62) |
Next: vs Robinson, Fri 6 Nov. Matchup report: Robinson at Gatesville.
The number to watch when Gatesville meets Robinson is Gatesville's scoring. Gatesville averaged 35.0 points per game over its first 6 games (4-2), #387 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), the Hornets have averaged 6.7 points per game, an 81% drop, #1141 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Gatesville's last 3 opponents have averaged 22.6 points per game, a #344 scoring defense in section on the season, against 34.5 points per game, #858 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (22.6 points per game), Gatesville scored 70% less than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #146 in section, well above the first 6 (#517), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Gatesville was held to 14 points or fewer 3 times in those games, including 0 against ScorePirate TX section #11 La Vega on 10/16. Meanwhile, Robinson's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Rockets have allowed 30.3 points per game over their last 3 games (2-1), #659 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (29.6 points per game on the season, which would rank #606). Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #297 in section, a strong slate. Robinson offers Gatesville a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Gatesville is 3-1 this season when it scores 35 or more, and 1-4 when it doesn't.
Gatesville averaged 5.7 yards per play (868 yards on 151 snaps) over its first 3 games (2-1), #695 in section through those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 6 games since that slow start (2-4), the Hornets have averaged 7.1 yards per play (1,553 yards on 219 snaps), a 23% rise, #455 in section through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.6 yards per play on the season. Conversely, Robinson's defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Rockets have allowed 6.1 yards per play (1,808 yards on 294 snaps) over their last 6 games (5-1), #401 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (6.9 yards per play on the season, which would rank #518). Against those norms, Robinson held those offenses 10% below their usual yards per snap. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #300 in section, a strong slate. Something has to give when Gatesville's surging offense meets one of section's better units in Robinson's.
Gatesville's passing game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Gatesville averaged 8.0 yards per pass attempt (1,142 yards on 142 attempts) on the season, #512 in section, but that number is boosted by a 296-yard game on 16 attempts against Connally on 10/9. In all other games, Gatesville is at 6.7 yards per pass attempt (846 yards on 126 attempts), a figure that would rank #724 in section. Context matters here: Connally's pass defense ranks among the weakest in section (10.1 yards per attempt, #1003 of 1234), so that game says more about the opponent than about the unit itself. Against Robinson, Gatesville draws a middle-of-the-pack pass defense (9.0 yards per attempt, #832), so expect something closer to the 6.7 version.
The biggest worry in Gatesville's season has been the direction of its run defense. The Hornets allowed 3.5 yards per carry (366 yards on 105 rushes) over their first 6 games (4-2), #69 in section within that period. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), Gatesville has allowed 6.2 yards per carry (515 yards on 83 rushes), a 78% rise, #620 in section across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.4 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.6 yards per carry), Gatesville allowed 10% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #146 in section, well above the first 6 (#517), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Hornets rank #229 in section in run defense. It won't get any easier against Robinson, whose ground game ranks #184 in section (7.7 yards per carry).
Gatesville's defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Gatesville allowed 27.0 points per game over its first 6 games (4-2), #549 in section during those games. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), the Hornets have allowed 42.0 points per game, a 56% rise, #936 in section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Gatesville's last 3 opponents have averaged 34.3 points per game, a #432 offense in section on the season, against 30.2 points per game, #588 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (34.3 points per game), Gatesville allowed 23% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #146 in section, well above the first 6 (#517), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Gatesville ranks #775 in section in scoring defense. It won't get any easier against Robinson, whose offense ranks #214 in section (41.0 points per game). Gatesville is 4-3 this season when it holds opponents under 41, and 0-2 when it doesn't.
Something changed for Gatesville's ground game after its first 4 games. The Hornets averaged 5.2 yards per carry (668 yards on 128 rushes) over their first 4 games (2-2), #657 in section during that stretch. In the 5 games since that slow start (2-3), Gatesville has averaged 6.1 yards per carry (611 yards on 100 rushes), a 17% rise, #458 in section over that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Gatesville's last 5 opponents have averaged 5.9 yards per carry, a #573 run defense in section on the season, against 5.2 yards per carry, #354 for the first 4. On the season, the Hornets rank #587 in section in rushing. Robinson's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #430 in section (5.4 yards per carry).
• Club Gatesville has lost 3 straight, and a loss would make it 4 in a row. The last time they lost 4 or more in a row was 2025, a run of 4.
• Club The last time Gatesville went a game forcing 3+ turnovers was September 15, 2023 against Mexia (W, 44-16). Since then Gatesville has gone 41 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers, a school-record 41 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Gatesville is 15-0 all time when scoring 40+ points in the games on file (15 such games).
• Club Gatesville has allowed 126 points over its last 3 games (42.0 a game, October 16, 2026 through October 30, 2026) -- its most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Elijah Phillips has 9 touchdown passes over his last 4 games (2.2 a game, September 18, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• Player Gorge Carmona has 26 tackles over his last 3 games (8.7 a game, September 18, 2026 through October 9, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player "Trey" Samuel Howard Iii has gone 4 straight games running for a touchdown, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Grady Keeton has 337 receiving yards over his last 3 games (112.3 a game, September 25, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch since the 454 he had from September 4, 2026 through September 18, 2026.
• Player Grady Keeton has 3 touchdown catches over his last 3 games (1.0 a game, September 25, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch since the 4 he had from September 4, 2026 through September 18, 2026.
• Player Nathan Reck has 29 tackles over his last 3 games (9.7 a game, September 25, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch since the 30 he had from August 28, 2026 through September 11, 2026.
DATA WARNING: GATESVILLE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/30/2026 GAME @ SALADO* MISSING
DATA WARNING: GATESVILLE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/23/2026 GAME @ BROWNWOOD* MISSING
All stat areas in this report are subject to change as box scores are updated.
From the games on file through Oct 16.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 16 game; last updated Nov 6; roster and numbers checked Sep 13.
| PASSING | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| 5 | ELIJAH PHILLIPS | 7 | 84/139 | 60.4% | 1,142 | 8.2 | 12 | 2 | 155.1 |
| 12 | GRAHAM BARRON | 7 | 0/2 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | -100.0 |
| 20 | GRADY KEETON | 7 | 0/1 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 7 | 84/142 | 59.2% | 1,142 | 8.0 | 12 | 3 | 150.4 | |
| RUSHING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| 5 | ELIJAH PHILLIPS | 7 | 81 | 456 | 5.6 | 7 |
| 3 | "TREY" SAMUEL HOWARD III | 6 | 59 | 353 | 6.0 | 6 |
| 13 | BENNETT EGGELING | 5 | 45 | 246 | 5.5 | 2 |
| ". HOWARD III | 4 | 30 | 149 | 5.0 | 2 | |
| 20 | GRADY KEETON | 7 | 4 | 114 | 28.5 | 2 |
| 7 | COLBY AARON | 7 | 27 | 88 | 3.3 | 2 |
| 24 | BRAXTON BROWN | 7 | 12 | 22 | 1.8 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 7 | 258 | 1,428 | 5.5 | 21 | |
| RECEIVING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | REC | YDS | YPR | TD |
| 20 | GRADY KEETON | 7 | 46 | 814 | 17.7 | 7 |
| 28 | STEFON BOYD | 6 | 14 | 157 | 11.2 | 4 |
| 10 | JAXON FRANKS | 5 | 8 | 61 | 7.6 | 1 |
| 3 | "TREY" SAMUEL HOWARD III | 6 | 4 | 47 | 11.8 | 0 |
| 9 | KADEN BUSTER | 7 | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| 13 | BENNETT EGGELING | 5 | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| ". HOWARD III | 4 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | |
| 23 | BRADY GIST | 2 | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| 4 | SETH BAIZE | 5 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| 15 | HUNTER MARTIN | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 7 | 85 | 1,156 | 13.6 | 12 | |
| DEFENSE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | TCKL | TFL | SACKS | INT | INT YDS | PD | FF |
| 11 | NATHAN RECK | 7 | 68 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 | BRAXTON BROWN | 7 | 45 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | "TREY" SAMUEL HOWARD III | 6 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | KADEN BUSTER | 7 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| 2 | GORGE CARMONA | 6 | 43 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | GRAHAM BARRON | 7 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 88 | THEO WILLIAMS | 7 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 | SEBASTIAN HUBIK | 7 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | COLBY AARON | 7 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | HUNTER MARTIN | 5 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 | GRADY KEETON | 7 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
| ". HOWARD III | 4 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1 | IAN GILLMORE | 7 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 66 | STEPHEN WALKER | 7 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 70 | JAYCOB WEBB | 6 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 68 | BRODY BROWN | 2 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | SETH BAIZE | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | AUSTYN PICKLE | 2 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | BRANSON HODGES | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | BRADY GIST | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 | JACOB DESORMEAUX | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | BENNETT EGGELING | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | BO KELLEY | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 41 | EDUARDO SILVA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 7 | 640 | 39 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 33 | 1 | |
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2022 | 7-4 | 329 | 313 | 29.9 |
| 2023 | 7-5 | 309 | 274 | 25.8 |
| 2024 | 7-6 | 386 | 358 | 29.7 |
| 2025 | 7-4 | 296 | 226 | 26.9 |
| 2026 | 4-5 | 230 | 288 | 25.6 |
| 2022-26 | 32-24 | 27.7 |
1 UIL state title
| YEAR | HONOR |
| 2000 | UIL STATE 3A D1 CHAMPION (def. Abilene Wylie 14-10) |
State championship games and title-game MVPs: UIL Fall Almanac 2025-26. League finishes: no league schedule on file yet, so none is claimed.
Gatesville fell to Salado 13-30 on the road on Friday, October 30, its 3rd straight loss. The defense turned a 289-yard night for Salado into 30 points.
For Salado, Landon Owens completed 12 of 24 for 110 yards and a touchdown and ran 3 times for 53 yards and a touchdown; Owen Gunter had 14 tackles, 2 for loss and 2 sacks.
Gatesville is 4-5, #469 TX section. Up next: vs Robinson, Fri Nov 6.
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Final + team statsFinal + top performersScoreboard + takeaways| # | Team | Dist | Ovr | Rank | Proj. | Dist. pts | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA VEGA | 4-0 | 9-0 | 2 / 11 | 1 (5.0-0.0) | 216-37 | 11/06 vs CONNALLY |
| 2 | ROBINSON | 3-1 | 7-2 | 15 / 141 | 2 (3.9-1.1) | 133-115 | 11/06 vs GATESVILLE |
| 3 | BROWNWOOD | 2-2 | 4-5 | 21 / 230 | 3 (2.6-2.4) | 132-83 | 11/06 vs SALADO |
| 4 | SALADO | 2-2 | 4-5 | 31 / 345 | 4 (2.4-2.6) | 86-100 | 11/06 vs BROWNWOOD |
| 5 | GATESVILLE | 1-3 | 4-5 | 43 / 469 | 5 (1.1-3.9) | 82-146 | 11/06 vs ROBINSON |
| 6 | CONNALLY | 0-4 | 0-9 | 68 / 933 | 6 (0.0-5.0) | 54-222 | 11/06 vs LA VEGA |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/28 | LAMPASAS | vs | L | 0-21 | |
| 09/04 | GLEN ROSE | vs | W | 27-19 | |
| 09/11 | CHINA SPRING | at | W | 41-37 | |
| 09/18 | WHITNEY | vs | L | 38-58 | |
| 09/25 | BURNET | at | W | 42-7 | |
| 10/09 | CONNALLY | at | W | 62-20 | |
| 10/16 | LA VEGA | vs | L | 0-58 | |
| 10/23 | BROWNWOOD | at | L | 7-38 | |
| 10/30 | SALADO | at | L | 13-30 | |
| 11/06 | ROBINSON | vs | PROJ | 21-40 | 18.0% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 4-5 | 1 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 4-5 so far | 4-6 (82%) | 4.2-5.8 |
| League | 1-3 so far | 1-3 (100%) | 1.0-3.0 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 9 | 25.6 | 32.0 | 345.9 | 293.7 | 52.9 | 50.4 |
| HOME | 4 | 16.2 | 39.0 | 262.8 | 291.0 | 50.8 | 51.0 |
| ROAD | 5 | 33.0 | 26.4 | 456.7 | 295.8 | 55.7 | 50.0 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Box-score coverage behind YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME: Overall 7/9 game(s), Home 4/4 game(s), Road 3/5 game(s).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 8/28 | vs. Lampasas | L 0-21 | 77 | 60 | 137 | 162 | 158 | 320 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| 9/4 | vs. Glen Rose | W 27-19 | 124 | 234 | 358 | 150 | 69 | 219 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9/11 | @ China Spring | W 41-37 | 123 | 250 | 373 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
| 9/18 | vs. Whitney | L 38-58 | 335 | 124 | 459 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9/25 | @ Burnet | W 42-7 | 171 | 200 | 371 | 71 | 87 | 158 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
| 10/9 | @ Connally | W 62-20 | 296 | 330 | 626 | 335 | 52 | 387 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10/16 | vs. La Vega | L 0-58 | 16 | 81 | 97 | 186 | 148 | 334 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
| 10/23 | @ Brownwood | L 7-38 | -- | -- | -- | 166 | 183 | 349 | 0 | -- | -- | 1 | +1 |
| 10/30 | @ Salado | L 13-30 | -- | -- | -- | 105 | 184 | 289 | 4 | -- | -- | 1 | 0 |
| AVERAGES | 163.1 | 182.7 | 345.9 | 167.9 | 125.9 | 293.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 7/9, defense 7/9, sacks/INT 7/9, sacks allowed 7/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 62.2/100 (+12 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 61.6/100 (+15 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 31.5/100 (+22 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 78.1/100 (-62 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-11-06 | vs | ROBINSON | 7-2 | 41.0 |
LAST YEAR
GAT finished 2025 at 7-4. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 30-7 over GLEN ROSE (GLEN ROSE finished 50% that season). Toughest loss: 7-24 to LA VEGA (17-point margin).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | RECORD | PF | PA | TOT YDS | YDS ALLOWED |
| 2025-08-29 | TAYLOR | W | 1-0 | 48 | 15 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-05 | GLEN ROSE | W | 2-0 | 30 | 7 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-12 | MEXIA | W | 3-0 | 35 | 6 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-19 | MCGREGOR | W | 4-0 | 55 | 12 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-26 | BURNET | W | 5-0 | 15 | 9 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-10 | LA VEGA | L | 5-1 | 7 | 24 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-17 | LORENA | W | 6-1 | 45 | 21 | 491 | 408 |
| 2025-10-24 | CHINA SPRING | W | 7-1 | 27 | 7 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-31 | ROBINSON | L | 7-2 | 14 | 35 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-07 | CONNALLY | L | 7-3 | 14 | 53 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-14 | SEALY | L | 7-4 | 6 | 37 | 191 | 313 |
| TOTALS | 11 GMS | 7-4 | 7-4 | 296 | 226 | 682 (2) | 721 (2) |
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
• GAT holds its opponents under 100 rushing yards (.999), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• GAT averages 5.0+ yards per carry (.833), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• GAT averages 6.0+ yards per play (.714), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• GAT holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.667), but most recently lost to Salado when doing so
• GAT's offense has averaged 1.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 0.5 giveaways per game. (+100%)
• GAT's offense has averaged 0.7 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 8.4 YPA. (-91%)
• GAT's offense has averaged 16.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 158.3 pass yards per game. (-90%)
• GAT's offense has averaged 6.7 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 27.6 points scored per game. (-76%)
• GAT's offense has averaged 97.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 333.4 total yards per game. (-71%)
• GAT's offense has averaged 1.9 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 6.5 YPP. (-70%)
• GAT averages 5.3+ yards per carry (GAT's own median) (.833)
• GAT holds its opponents under 4.5 yards per carry (GAT's own median) (.800)
• GAT's defense has averaged 42.0 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 26.4 points allowed per game. (+59%)
• GAT holds its opponents under 153.0 rushing yards (GAT's own median) (.800)
• GAT's offense has averaged 81.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 175.1 rush yards per game. (-54%)
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
GAT -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 12 scored; vs 303 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | Rush Yds 150+ | 13-2 | .867 | 39.6 | W10 | 0.890 |
| 2 | OFF | Pass Yds 200+ | 8-3 | .727 | 39.5 | W1 | 0.796 |
| 3 | OFF | Rush Yds 100+ | 16-6 | .727 | 35.7 | W2 | 0.751 |
| 4 | OFF | Pass Yds < 200 | 10-9 | .526 | 23.4 | L1 | 0.496 |
| 5 | DEF | YPP < 7 | 4-5 | .444 | 26.0 | L2 | 0.496 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- GAT ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| GAT rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 10-4 | .714 | 29.5 | W3 |
| GAT averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards | 5-0 | .999 | 43.4 | W5 |
| GAT averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards | 5-0 | .999 | 43.4 | W5 |
| GAT holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt and under 5.0 yards per carry | 4-1 | .800 | 17.6 | W3 |
| GAT averages 6.0+ yards per play while committing zero giveaways | 3-2 | .600 | 40.4 | W2 |
| GAT averages 8.0+ yards per attempt while throwing for 200+ yards | 2-2 | .500 | 41.0 | W1 |
| GAT holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry and under 150 rushing yards | 4-0 | .999 | 16.8 | W4 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| GAT | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 10-4 | .714 | 29.5 |
| GAT | YPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 5-0 | .999 | 43.4 |
| GAT | YPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 5-0 | .999 | 43.4 |
| GAT | YPA < 8.0 & YPC < 5.0 | 4-1 | .800 | 17.6 |
| GAT | YPP 6.0+ & Turnovers < 1 | 3-2 | .600 | 40.4 |
| GAT | YPA 8.0+ & Pass Yds 200+ | 2-2 | .500 | 41.0 |
| GAT | YPC < 5.0 & Rush Yds < 150 | 4-0 | .999 | 16.8 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 4-2 | .667 | 38.8 | W2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-4 | .200 | 13.6 | L1 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 8-3 | .727 | 39.5 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 10-9 | .526 | 23.4 | L1 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 16-6 | .727 | 35.7 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 2-6 | .250 | 11.5 | L3 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 13-2 | .867 | 39.6 | W10 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 5-10 | .333 | 18.9 | L5 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 5-1 | .833 | 36.2 | W4 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-5 | .000 | 16.8 | L5 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 5-2 | .714 | 39.1 | W2 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-4 | .000 | 6.8 | L4 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 48.3 | W1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-5 | .375 | 19.5 | L1 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 2-3 | .400 | 17.0 | L2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 3-4 | .429 | 30.7 | L1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 0-1 | .000 | 0.0 | L1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 21 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-5 | .000 | 4.0 |
| Scores 10-19 | 1-8 | .111 | 14.2 |
| Scores 20-29 | 2-1 | .667 | 25.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 5-1 | .833 | 34.7 |
| Scores 40+ | 10-0 | 1.000 | 48.1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 3-1 | .750 | 42.2 | W2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 13.7 | L1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-1 | .500 | 50.0 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-2 | .600 | 22.0 | L1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 4-1 | .800 | 42.0 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 0-2 | .000 | 0.0 | L2 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 4-0 | 1.000 | 43.0 | W4 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 0-3 | .000 | 12.7 | L3 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 4-1 | .800 | 34.4 | W4 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 19.0 | L2 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 4-1 | .800 | 42.0 | W2 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 0.0 | L2 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 50.0 | W1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-2 | .600 | 22.0 | L1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 1-3 | .250 | 10.0 | L2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 3-2 | .600 | 38.0 | L1 | |
| Turnovers 2+ | 0-1 | .000 | 0.0 | L1 | |
| Turnovers > 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-3 | .000 | 2.3 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-1 | .000 | 13.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 27.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 0-1 | .000 | 38.0 |
| Scores 40+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 48.3 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-5 | .000 | 42.0 | L5 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 4-2 | .667 | 19.7 | L1 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 2-2 | .500 | 29.5 | W2 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 2-5 | .286 | 30.0 | L3 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 0-7 | .000 | 37.3 | L7 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 16.8 | W4 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-6 | .000 | 33.8 | L6 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 4-1 | .800 | 25.0 | L1 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 0-4 | .000 | 45.5 | L4 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 4-3 | .571 | 20.9 | W3 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-5 | .167 | 38.3 | L2 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 3-2 | .600 | 19.6 | L1 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-2 | .000 | 47.0 | L2 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 4-5 | .444 | 26.0 | L2 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-2 | .600 | 26.2 | L2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-4 | .200 | 35.6 | L1 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 23 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 7.2 |
| Allows 10-19 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 14.6 |
| Allows 20-29 | 6-6 | .500 | 24.3 |
| Allows 30-39 | 2-5 | .286 | 35.1 |
| Allows 40+ | 0-4 | .000 | 56.2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-2 | .000 | 48.0 | L2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 3-2 | .600 | 19.4 | L1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 20.0 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 2-4 | .333 | 28.8 | L3 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 0-4 | .000 | 36.8 | L4 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 15.3 | W3 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-3 | .000 | 29.7 | L3 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 3-1 | .750 | 26.0 | L1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 0-3 | .000 | 42.0 | L3 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 3-1 | .750 | 16.8 | W3 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 38.7 | L2 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 2-2 | .500 | 19.2 | L1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-1 | .000 | 38.0 | L1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-3 | .500 | 25.8 | L2 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-2 | .600 | 26.2 | L2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-3 | .250 | 39.2 | L1 | |
| Turnovers 2+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Turnovers > 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 19.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 |
| Allows 30-39 | 1-2 | .333 | 35.0 |
| Allows 40+ | 0-2 | .000 | 58.0 |
GATESVILLE
• GATESVILLE has been held under 14 in 3 straight games (10/16/26–10/30/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• GATESVILLE has allowed 30+ in 3 straight games (10/16/26–10/30/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• GATESVILLE has lost 3 straight (10/16/26–10/30/26). It has not lost 4 straight since 10/31/25–8/28/26 (2026).
• GATESVILLE has allowed a 100-yard rusher in 2 straight games (10/23/26–10/30/26). It has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 3 straight since 10/31/25–8/28/26 (2026). It has reached 3 straight 2 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 5 straight (2024) in that span.
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| GAT | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 38.8 | W2 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 13.6 | L1 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 11 | 8-3 | .727 | 39.5 | W1 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 19 | 10-9 | .526 | 23.4 | L1 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 22 | 16-6 | .727 | 35.7 | W2 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 8 | 2-6 | .250 | 11.5 | L3 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 15 | 13-2 | .867 | 39.6 | W10 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 15 | 5-10 | .333 | 18.9 | L5 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 36.2 | W4 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 16.8 | L5 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 39.1 | W2 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 6.8 | L4 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 48.3 | W1 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 8 | 3-5 | .375 | 19.5 | L1 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 17.0 | L2 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 30.7 | L1 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 0.0 | L1 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 4.0 | L5 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 9 | 1-8 | .111 | 14.2 | L3 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 25.0 | W2 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 34.7 | L1 |
| GAT | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 10 | 10-0 | 1.000 | 48.1 | W10 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 42.0 | L5 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 19.7 | L1 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 29.5 | W2 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 7 | 2-5 | .286 | 30.0 | L3 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 7 | 0-7 | .000 | 37.3 | L7 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 16.8 | W4 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 6 | 0-6 | .000 | 33.8 | L6 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 25.0 | L1 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 45.5 | L4 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 7 | 4-3 | .571 | 20.9 | W3 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 38.3 | L2 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 19.6 | L1 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 47.0 | L2 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 9 | 4-5 | .444 | 26.0 | L2 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 26.2 | L2 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 35.6 | L1 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 5 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 7.2 | W5 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 5 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 14.6 | W5 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 12 | 6-6 | .500 | 24.3 | W1 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 7 | 2-5 | .286 | 35.1 | L2 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 56.2 | L4 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 3 games | 10/16/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 0-3 |
| DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 3 games | 10/16/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 0-3 |
| DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 3 games | 10/16/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 0-3 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
| GAT | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 3 games | 10/16/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 0-3 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 3 games | 10/16/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 0-3 |
| GAT | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 3 games | 10/16/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 0-3 |
GAT OFFENSE
GAT's offense has averaged 1.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 0.5 giveaways per game. (+100%)
GAT's offense has averaged 0.7 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 8.4 YPA. (-91%)
GAT's offense has averaged 16.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 158.3 pass yards per game. (-90%)
GAT's offense has averaged 6.7 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 27.6 points scored per game. (-76%)
GAT's offense has averaged 97.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 333.4 total yards per game. (-71%)
GAT's offense has averaged 1.9 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 6.5 YPP. (-70%)
GAT's offense has averaged 81.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 175.1 rush yards per game. (-54%)
GAT's offense has averaged 2.9 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 5.2 YPC. (-45%)
GAT DEFENSE
GAT's defense has averaged 42.0 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 26.4 points allowed per game. (+59%)
GAT's defense has averaged 6.2 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 4.6 YPC. (+35%)
GAT's defense has averaged 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 0.5 takeaways per game. (+33%)
GAT's defense has averaged 171.7 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 130.5 rush yards per game. (+32%)
GAT's defense has averaged 152.3 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 206.0 pass yards per game. (-26%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| GAT | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 152.3 | 11 | 206.0 | -26.1% | |
| GAT | OFFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 16.0 | 30 | 158.3 | -89.9% | |
| GAT | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 42.0 | 33 | 26.4 | +58.9% | |
| GAT | OFFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 6.7 | 33 | 27.6 | -75.9% | |
| GAT | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 171.7 | 11 | 130.5 | +31.6% | |
| GAT | OFFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 81.0 | 30 | 175.1 | -53.7% | |
| GAT | OFFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 97.0 | 30 | 333.4 | -70.9% | |
| GAT | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 0.7 | 10 | 0.5 | +33.3% | |
| GAT | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 1.0 | 12 | 0.5 | +100.0% | |
| GAT | OFFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 0.7 | 11 | 8.4 | -91.3% | |
| GAT | DEFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 6.2 | 11 | 4.6 | +35.0% | |
| GAT | OFFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 2.9 | 11 | 5.2 | -44.7% | |
| GAT | OFFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 1.9 | 11 | 6.5 | -70.0% |
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -1.0 in 2022 to 7.9 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
