In short: Fresno Warriors high school football (Fresno, CA), 2026 season: 1-8. Last game: L 0-18 vs Central on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Roosevelt, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The number to watch when Fresno meets Roosevelt is Fresno's scoring defense. Fresno allowed 50.5 points per game over its first 6 games (0-6), #113 in Section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (1-2), the Warriors have allowed 21.3 points per game, a 58% drop, #47 in Section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fresno's last 3 opponents have averaged 15.4 points per game, a #94 offense in Section on the season, against 31.1 points per game, #31 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (15.4 points per game), Fresno allowed 38% more than those offenses usually score. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #93 in Section, well below the first 6 (#56), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Only Madera South broke through in that span, putting up 40 on 10/8. Meanwhile, Roosevelt's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Rough Riders have averaged 27.7 points per game over their last 3 games (2-1), #42 in Section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in Section (27.8 points per game on the season, which would rank #70). Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #68 in Section, a lower level of competition. Roosevelt offers Fresno a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Fresno is 1-1 this season when it holds opponents under 29, and 0-7 when it doesn't.
NOTES
The biggest shift in Fresno's season has come in its run defense. Fresno allowed 10.2 yards per carry (952 yards on 93 rushes) over its first 4 games (0-4), #110 in Section through those games. In the 5 games since that slow start (1-4), the Warriors have allowed 7.8 yards per carry (759 yards on 97 rushes), a 24% drop, #95 in Section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fresno's last 5 opponents have averaged 6.1 yards per carry, a #54 rushing attack in Section on the season, against 7.6 yards per carry, #23 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.1 yards per carry), Fresno allowed 29% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #83 in Section, well below the first 4 (#54), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Fresno ranks #109 in Section in run defense. That form gets a real test against Roosevelt, whose ground game ranks #10 in Section (8.5 yards per carry).
TIDBITS (3 found)
• Club The last time Fresno went a game holding the opponent under 5.0 yards per carry was August 26, 2022 against Chowchilla (L, 12-13). Since then Fresno has gone 47 straight games allowing 5.0+ yards per carry, a school-record 47 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club The last time Fresno went a game rushing for 100+ yards was October 6, 2023 against Sunnyside (L, 24-46). Since then Fresno has gone 32 straight games being held under 100 rushing yards, a school-record 32 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club The last time Fresno went a game allowing 200+ passing yards was September 5, 2025 against Minarets (L, 7-48). Since then Fresno has gone 16 straight games holding the opponent under 200 passing yards, a school-record 16 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
DATA WARNING: FRESNO OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/23/2026 GAME VS. CENTRAL* MISSING
DATA WARNING: FRESNO OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/16/2026 GAME @ VARSITY OPPONENT MISSING
DATA WARNING: FRESNO OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/08/2026 GAME VS. MADERA SOUTH* MISSING
DATA WARNING: FRESNO OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/02/2026 GAME @ SANGER WEST* MISSING
DATA WARNING: FRESNO OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/25/2026 GAME @ MCLANE MISSING
DATA WARNING: FRESNO OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/18/2026 GAME VS. CHOWCHILLA MISSING
DATA WARNING: FRESNO OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/04/2026 GAME @ MINARETS MISSING
DATA WARNING: FRESNO OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 08/28/2026 GAME @ SELMA MISSING
DATA WARNING: FRESNO OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 08/21/2026 GAME VS. REEDLEY MISSING
All stat areas in this report are subject to change as box scores are updated.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 0/9, defense 7/9, sacks/INT 0/9, sacks allowed 7/9, turnovers 7/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Defense: grade 19.4/100 (+44 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 9.5/100 (+109 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-10-30
vs
ROOSEVELT
6-3
28.9
LAST YEAR
FRE finished 2025 at 0-10. Missed playoffs. Toughest loss: 19-22 to MADERA SOUTH (3-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
FRE HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• FRE commits fewer than 2 giveaways (.000), but most recently lost to Mclane when doing so
• FRE holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.000), but most recently lost to Madera South when doing so
• FRE holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards (.000), but most recently lost to Reedley when doing so
• FRE holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.000), but most recently lost to Madera South when doing so
• FRE's defense has averaged 0.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 0.7 takeaways per game. (-100%)
• FRE's offense has averaged 3.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 1.8 giveaways per game. (+67%)
• FRE's defense has averaged 68.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 151.8 pass yards per game. (-55%)
• FRE's defense has averaged 21.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 41.1 points allowed per game. (-48%)
• FRE's offense has averaged 3.8 points scored per game over their last 5 games. Their 29-game average is 6.9 points scored per game. (-45%)
• FRE's defense has averaged 5.9 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 9.8 YPP. (-41%)
• FRE's defense has averaged 5.5 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 9.2 YPC. (-40%)
• FRE's defense has averaged 7.1 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 15-game average is 11.0 YPA. (-35%)
• FRE's defense has averaged 275.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 376.7 total yards per game. (-27%)
• FRE is 1-3 (.250) in games decided by 8 points or fewer
FRE's defense has averaged 0.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 0.7 takeaways per game. (-100%)
FRE's defense has averaged 68.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 151.8 pass yards per game. (-55%)
FRE's defense has averaged 21.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 41.1 points allowed per game. (-48%)
FRE's defense has averaged 5.9 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 9.8 YPP. (-41%)
FRE's defense has averaged 5.5 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 9.2 YPC. (-40%)
FRE's defense has averaged 7.1 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 15-game average is 11.0 YPA. (-35%)
FRE's defense has averaged 275.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 15-game average is 376.7 total yards per game. (-27%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Scoring profile against the section: 5.0 scored, 45.3 allowed per game.
SCORING MARGIN / GAME: FRESNO VS THE SECTION
FRESNO ranks #112 of 114 section teams in scoring margin (-40.3) -- a weakness worth a look.
FRESNO: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -17.7 in 2022 to -23.8 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK
Lost to Central 0-18 on Oct 23; now 1-8.
From the games on file through Oct 23.
REMAINING SCHEDULE
Most likely finish 1-9 · realistic range 1-9 to 1-9
Remaining schedule: 39th hardest of 110 in the CIF Central Section (average opponent strength 11.4).
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
