In short: Fairfax Stampede high school football (Laveen, AZ), 2026 season: 3-6. Last game: L 14-21 vs Central on October 23, 2026. Next: at Academies Of South Mountain, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 3-6 this season |
| LAST GAME | L 14-21 vs CENTRAL |
| NEXT GAME | ACADEMIES OF SOUTH MOUNTAIN (10/30/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 11.6 · Rush Off 30.7 · Pass Def 14.0 · Rush Def 33.7 |
| LEAGUE | 5A METRO |
| ENROLLMENT | 2,014 STUDENTS (2024-25) · PUBLIC SECONDARY SCHOOL |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAIRFAX | 11.6 (-99) | 30.7 (-53) | 14.0 (+58) | 33.7 (+30) |
Next: at Academies Of South Mountain, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Fairfax at Academies Of South Mountain.
The number to watch when Fairfax meets Academies Of South Mountain is Fairfax's scoring defense. Fairfax allowed 33.0 points per game over its first 5 games (1-4), #191 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Stampede have allowed 11.2 points per game, a 66% drop, #33 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fairfax's last 4 opponents have averaged 13.9 points per game, a #207 offense in section on the season, against 29.3 points per game, #104 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (13.9 points per game), Fairfax held those offenses 19% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #213 in section, well below the first 5 (#118), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Only Central broke through in that span, putting up 21 on 10/23. Meanwhile, Academies Of South Mountain's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Jaguars have averaged 30.8 points per game over their last 4 games (3-1), #95 in section during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker scoring defenses in section (32.9 points per game on the season, which would rank #189). Against those norms, Academies Of South Mountain scored 7% less than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #213 in section, a lower level of competition. Academies Of South Mountain offers Fairfax a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Fairfax is 3-2 this season when it holds opponents under 21, and 0-4 when it doesn't.
The battle on the ground could decide Fairfax's next game, against Academies Of South Mountain, and the recent returns favor Fairfax. Fairfax averaged 4.2 yards per carry (618 yards on 148 rushes) over its first 5 games (1-4), #185 in section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Stampede have averaged 6.5 yards per carry (910 yards on 140 rushes), a 56% rise, #87 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fairfax's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.3 yards per carry, a #175 run defense in section on the season, against 5.6 yards per carry, #102 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.3 yards per carry), Fairfax ran for 11% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #213 in section, well below the first 5 (#118), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Academies Of South Mountain's run defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Jaguars have allowed 4.4 yards per carry (410 yards on 93 rushes) over their last 4 games (3-1), #50 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the weaker rushing attacks in section (4.1 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #192). Against those norms, Academies Of South Mountain allowed 8% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #213 in section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Fairfax's surging ground game meets one of section's better units in Academies Of South Mountain's.
Fairfax's passing game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Fairfax averaged 5.2 yards per pass attempt (664 yards on 127 attempts) on the season, #193 in section, but that number is boosted by a 172-yard game on 13 attempts against North on 10/9. In all other games, Fairfax is at 4.3 yards per pass attempt (492 yards on 114 attempts), a figure that would rank #214 in section. Context matters here: North's pass defense ranks among the weakest in section (18.8 yards per attempt, #250 of 251), so that game says more about the opponent than about the unit itself. Against Academies Of South Mountain, Fairfax draws a middle-of-the-pack pass defense (7.7 yards per attempt, #113), so expect something closer to the 4.3 version.
The biggest shift in Fairfax's season has come in its offense. The Stampede averaged 4.2 yards per play (905 yards on 218 snaps) over their first 5 games (1-4), #206 in section within that period. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), Fairfax has averaged 6.5 yards per play (1,287 yards on 197 snaps), a 57% rise, #114 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fairfax's last 4 opponents have averaged 8.8 yards per play, a #200 defense in section on the season, against 6.3 yards per play, #91 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.8 yards per play), Fairfax gained 26% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #213 in section, well below the first 5 (#118), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Stampede rank #180 in section in yards per play. Academies Of South Mountain's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #127 in section (6.9 yards per play).
Fairfax averaged 13.6 points per game over its first 5 games (1-4), #206 in section during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Stampede have averaged 19.8 points per game, a 45% rise, #153 in section during that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fairfax's last 4 opponents have averaged 32.9 points per game, a #189 scoring defense in section on the season, against 25.3 points per game, #138 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (32.9 points per game), Fairfax scored 40% less than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #213 in section, well below the first 5 (#118), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Fairfax ranks #197 in section in scoring. Academies Of South Mountain's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #144 in section (26.0 points per game). Fairfax is 2-0 this season when it scores 26 or more, and 1-6 when it doesn't.
• Club Fairfax has lost 2 straight, and a loss would make it 3 in a row. The last time they lost 3 or more in a row was 2026, a run of 3.
• Club The last time Fairfax went a game throwing for 200+ yards was August 30, 2024 against Buena (L, 19-68). Since then Fairfax has gone 28 straight games being held under 200 passing yards, a school-record 28 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Fairfax has gone 6 straight games rushing for 100+ yards (September 17, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 2-4 over that stretch, a school-record 6 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Fairfax has gone 6 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers (September 17, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 2-4 over that stretch, a school-record 6 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Player Michael Branch has 4 touchdown catches over his last 4 games (1.0 a game, October 10, 2025 through October 30, 2025) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• Player Nathan Escobedo has 3 sacks over his last 3 games (1.0 a game, October 10, 2025 through October 30, 2025) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player E'zavien Holleman has gone 5 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Michael Branch has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for Fairfax, over a 24-game career on record. His career high is 8, set August 25, 2023 against Buena (L, 0-40).
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2022 | 5-5 | 251 | 241 | 25.1 |
| 2023 | 0-10 | 112 | 409 | 11.2 |
| 2024 | 0-10 | 110 | 365 | 11.0 |
| 2025 | 3-7 | 199 | 265 | 19.9 |
| 2026 | 3-6 | 147 | 210 | 16.3 |
| 2022-26 | 11-38 | 16.7 |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/28 | MILLENNIUM | vs | L | 0-42 | |
| 09/04 | ALHAMBRA | vs | W | 50-0 | |
| 09/11 | WILLOW CANYON | at | L | 6-49 | |
| 09/17 | TOLLESON | at | L | 0-20 | |
| 09/25 | YUMA CATHOLIC | at | L | 12-54 | |
| 10/02 | BROWNE | vs | W | 22-6 | |
| 10/09 | NORTH | vs | W | 35-6 | |
| 10/16 | CAMELBACK | at | L | 8-12 | |
| 10/23 | CENTRAL | vs | L | 14-21 | |
| 10/30 | ACADEMIES OF SOUTH MOUNTAIN | at | PROJ | 21-24 | 43.1% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 3-6 | 1 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 3-6 so far | 3-7 (57%) | 3.4-6.6 |
| League | 2-2 so far | 2-2 (100%) | 2.0-2.0 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 9 | 16.3 | 23.3 | 243.6 | 301.4 | 46.1 | 37.3 |
| HOME | 5 | 24.2 | 15.0 | 252.2 | 250.7 | 42.0 | 35.7 |
| ROAD | 4 | 6.5 | 33.8 | 232.8 | 339.5 | 51.2 | 38.5 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 8/28 | vs. Millennium | L 0-42 | 46 | 100 | 146 | 165 | 186 | 351 | 0 | -- | -- | 0 | 0 |
| 9/4 | vs. Alhambra | W 50-0 | 121 | 129 | 250 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 5 | +4 |
| 9/11 | @ Willow Canyon | L 6-49 | 56 | 95 | 151 | 158 | 58 | 216 | 0 | -- | -- | 1 | -2 |
| 9/17 | @ Tolleson | L 0-20 | 6 | 190 | 196 | 275 | 112 | 387 | 0 | -- | -- | 0 | 0 |
| 9/25 | @ Yuma Catholic | L 12-54 | 58 | 104 | 162 | 205 | 231 | 436 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -1 |
| 10/2 | vs. Browne | W 22-6 | 57 | 234 | 291 | 75 | 80 | 155 | -- | -- | -- | 2 | +1 |
| 10/9 | vs. North | W 35-6 | 172 | 157 | 329 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 2 | +1 |
| 10/16 | @ Camelback | L 8-12 | 137 | 285 | 422 | 174 | 145 | 319 | -- | -- | -- | 1 | 0 |
| 10/23 | vs. Central | L 14-21 | 11 | 234 | 245 | 146 | 100 | 246 | -- | -- | -- | 1 | -1 |
| AVERAGES | 73.8 | 169.8 | 243.6 | 171.1 | 130.3 | 301.4 | 0.0 | -- | -- | 1.3 | +2 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 7/9, sacks/INT 0/9, sacks allowed 3/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 11.6/100 (-99 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 30.7/100 (-53 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 14.0/100 (+58 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 33.7/100 (+30 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-10-30 | at | ACADEMIES OF SOUTH MOUNTAIN | 4-5 | 20.9 |
LAST YEAR
FAI finished 2025 at 3-7. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 27-22 over NORTH (NORTH finished 30% that season). Toughest loss: 0-1 to YUMA CATHOLIC (1-point margin).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | RECORD | PF | PA | TOT YDS | YDS ALLOWED |
| 2025-08-29 | MILLENNIUM | L | 0-1 | 0 | 62 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-05 | ALHAMBRA | W | 1-1 | 61 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-12 | WILLOW CANYON | L | 1-2 | 6 | 14 | 197 | 278 |
| 2025-09-19 | TOLLESON | L | 1-3 | 21 | 43 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-26 | YUMA CATHOLIC | L | 1-4 | 0 | 1 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-02 | BROWNE | W | 2-4 | 24 | 13 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-10 | NORTH | W | 3-4 | 27 | 22 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-17 | CAMELBACK | L | 3-5 | 19 | 60 | 290 | 662 |
| 2025-10-24 | CENTRAL | L | 3-6 | 17 | 20 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-30 | ACADEMIES OF SOUTH MOUNTAIN | L | 3-7 | 24 | 30 | 250 | N/A |
| TOTALS | 10 GMS | 3-7 | 3-7 | 199 | 265 | 737 (3) | 940 (2) |
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
• FAI forces 2+ takeaways (.429), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• FAI averages 6.0+ yards per play (.375), but most recently lost to Camelback when doing so
• FAI commits fewer than 2 giveaways (.333), but most recently lost to Camelback when doing so
• FAI holds its opponents under 100 rushing yards (.333)
• FAI's offense has failed to reach 200 pass yds in 10 straight games (10/30/2025-10/23/2026), going 3-7 over that stretch.
• FAI's offense has averaged 225.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 130.6 rush yards per game. (+73%)
• FAI's offense has exceeded 100 rush yds in 6 straight games (09/17/2026-10/23/2026), going 2-4 over that stretch.
• FAI's defense has averaged 13.0 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 29.0 points allowed per game. (-55%)
• FAI's offense has averaged 1.1 giveaways per game over their last 10 games. Their 21-game average is 2.1 giveaways per game. (-47%)
• FAI's offense has exceeded 150 rush yds in 4 straight games (10/02/2026-10/23/2026), going 2-2 over that stretch.
• FAI's offense has exceeded 5.0 YPC in 4 straight games (10/02/2026-10/23/2026), going 2-2 over that stretch.
• FAI is 3-3 (.500) when it wins the turnover battle
• FAI's offense has averaged 71.0 pass yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 25-game average is 112.6 pass yards per game. (-37%)
• FAI's offense has averaged 332.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 243.2 total yards per game. (+37%)
• FAI's defense has averaged 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 21-game average is 1.5 takeaways per game. (-34%)
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
FAI -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 27 scored; vs 30 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | YPP 6+ | 3-5 | .375 | 24.9 | L1 | 0.770 |
| 2 | OFF | Turnovers < 2 | 3-6 | .333 | 18.0 | L1 | 0.628 |
| 3 | OFF | Rush Yds < 150 | 4-12 | .250 | 17.1 | L2 | 0.622 |
| 4 | OFF | Rush Yds 100+ | 5-12 | .294 | 19.6 | L2 | 0.614 |
| 5 | OFF | YPC 5+ | 3-9 | .250 | 19.8 | L2 | 0.560 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- FAI ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| FAI rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 5-12 | .294 | 19.6 | L2 |
| FAI averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards | 2-6 | .250 | 18.0 | L2 |
| FAI rushes for 150+ yards but stays under 8.0 yards per attempt | 1-4 | .200 | 12.0 | L1 |
| FAI averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards | 2-3 | .400 | 21.2 | L1 |
| FAI holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards | 1-4 | .200 | 21.8 | L2 |
| FAI holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry and under 150 rushing yards | 0-5 | .000 | 27.2 | L5 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| FAI | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 5-12 | .294 | 19.6 |
| FAI | YPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 2-6 | .250 | 18.0 |
| FAI | Rush Yds 150+ & YPA < 8.0 | 1-4 | .200 | 12.0 |
| FAI | YPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 2-3 | .400 | 21.2 |
| FAI | Rush Yds < 150 & Pass Yds < 200 | 1-4 | .200 | 21.8 |
| FAI | YPC < 5.0 & Rush Yds < 150 | 0-5 | .000 | 27.2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 2-4 | .333 | 25.5 | L1 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-15 | .062 | 9.6 | L1 | 7 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-1 | .000 | 19.0 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 6-18 | .250 | 16.6 | L2 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 5-12 | .294 | 19.6 | L2 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-7 | .125 | 10.5 | L1 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 2-7 | .222 | 16.0 | L2 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 4-12 | .250 | 17.1 | L2 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 3-9 | .250 | 19.8 | L2 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-10 | .000 | 6.9 | L10 | 7 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 3-5 | .375 | 24.9 | L1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-14 | .000 | 7.6 | L14 | 7 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 2-3 | .400 | 29.6 | W2 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 1-16 | .059 | 9.3 | L2 | 7 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-15 | .167 | 14.5 | L2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 0-3 | .000 | 7.0 | L3 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 0-12 | .000 | 10.0 | L12 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-8 | .000 | 7.1 | L8 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-11 | .000 | 3.1 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-8 | .000 | 14.6 |
| Scores 20-29 | 3-4 | .429 | 22.7 |
| Scores 30-39 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 35.0 |
| Scores 40+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 55.5 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 31.0 | L1 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-5 | .167 | 9.0 | L1 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-6 | .333 | 16.3 | L2 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 3-5 | .375 | 17.6 | L2 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 0-1 | .000 | 6.0 | L1 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 2-3 | .400 | 15.8 | L2 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 1-3 | .250 | 17.0 | L2 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 3-2 | .600 | 25.8 | L2 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-4 | .000 | 4.5 | L4 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 3-1 | .750 | 28.8 | L1 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-5 | .000 | 6.4 | L5 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 42.5 | W2 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 1-6 | .143 | 8.9 | L2 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-4 | .429 | 21.0 | L2 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 0-2 | .000 | 0.0 | L2 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 0-2 | .000 | 10.0 | L2 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-1 | .000 | 6.0 | L1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-4 | .000 | 3.5 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-2 | .000 | 13.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 22.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 35.0 |
| Scores 40+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 50.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-12 | .000 | 42.8 | L12 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-3 | .250 | 15.5 | W1 | 13 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-8 | .000 | 48.6 | L8 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 1-7 | .125 | 23.2 | L2 | 13 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 0-13 | .000 | 38.1 | L13 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-2 | .333 | 26.7 | W1 | 13 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-9 | .000 | 46.8 | L9 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 1-6 | .143 | 22.0 | L2 | 13 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-10 | .091 | 39.9 | L1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-5 | .000 | 27.2 | L5 | 13 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 0-11 | .000 | 44.7 | L11 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-4 | .200 | 16.6 | L1 | 13 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-10 | .000 | 44.3 | L10 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 1-5 | .167 | 22.0 | L1 | 13 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-14 | .176 | 27.4 | L2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 0-4 | .000 | 46.0 | L4 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 3-4 | .429 | 14.3 | W3 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-3 | .250 | 16.8 | W1 | 8 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 4-1 | .800 | 2.6 |
| Allows 10-19 | 1-2 | .333 | 13.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-9 | .100 | 21.8 |
| Allows 30-39 | 0-1 | .000 | 30.0 |
| Allows 40+ | 0-10 | .000 | 54.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-6 | .000 | 33.0 | L6 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 6.0 | W1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-2 | .000 | 37.0 | L2 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 1-4 | .200 | 26.0 | L2 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 0-5 | .000 | 29.8 | L5 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-1 | .500 | 27.5 | W1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-2 | .000 | 48.0 | L2 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 1-4 | .200 | 21.6 | L2 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-3 | .250 | 28.5 | L1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-3 | .000 | 30.0 | L3 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 0-5 | .000 | 35.4 | L5 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-1 | .500 | 13.5 | L1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-4 | .000 | 32.0 | L4 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 25.3 | L1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-3 | .500 | 15.7 | L2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 0-3 | .000 | 38.7 | L3 | |
| Turnovers 2+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 4.0 | W3 | |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 0.0 | W1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 4.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | 0-1 | .000 | 12.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 0-2 | .000 | 20.5 |
| Allows 30-39 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 40+ | 0-3 | .000 | 48.3 |
FAIRFAX
• FAIRFAX has rushed for 200+ in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| FAI | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 25.5 | L1 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 16 | 1-15 | .062 | 9.6 | L1 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 19.0 | L1 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 24 | 6-18 | .250 | 16.6 | L2 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 17 | 5-12 | .294 | 19.6 | L2 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 10.5 | L1 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 9 | 2-7 | .222 | 16.0 | L2 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 16 | 4-12 | .250 | 17.1 | L2 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 12 | 3-9 | .250 | 19.8 | L2 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 10 | 0-10 | .000 | 6.9 | L10 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 8 | 3-5 | .375 | 24.9 | L1 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 14 | 0-14 | .000 | 7.6 | L14 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 29.6 | W2 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 17 | 1-16 | .059 | 9.3 | L2 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 18 | 3-15 | .167 | 14.5 | L2 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 7.0 | L3 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 12 | 0-12 | .000 | 10.0 | L12 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 8 | 0-8 | .000 | 7.1 | L8 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 11 | 0-11 | .000 | 3.1 | L11 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 8 | 0-8 | .000 | 14.6 | L8 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 22.7 | W1 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 35.0 | W1 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 55.5 | W2 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 12 | 0-12 | .000 | 42.8 | L12 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 15.5 | W1 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 8 | 0-8 | .000 | 48.6 | L8 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 23.2 | L2 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 13 | 0-13 | .000 | 38.1 | L13 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 26.7 | W1 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 9 | 0-9 | .000 | 46.8 | L9 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 7 | 1-6 | .143 | 22.0 | L2 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 11 | 1-10 | .091 | 39.9 | L1 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 27.2 | L5 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 11 | 0-11 | .000 | 44.7 | L11 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 16.6 | L1 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 10 | 0-10 | .000 | 44.3 | L10 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 22.0 | L1 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 17 | 3-14 | .176 | 27.4 | L2 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 46.0 | L4 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 14.3 | W3 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 16.8 | W1 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 2.6 | W3 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 13.0 | L1 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 10 | 1-9 | .100 | 21.8 | L3 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 30.0 | L1 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 10 | 0-10 | .000 | 54.0 | L10 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 10 games | 10/30/2025 - 10/23/2026 | 3-7 |
| OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 6 games | 09/17/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-4 |
| OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 5 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-3 |
| OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 4 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 4 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 4 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 10 games | 10/30/2025 - 10/23/2026 | 3-7 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 6 games | 09/17/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-4 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 5 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-3 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 4 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| FAI | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 4 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| FAI | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 4 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
FAI OFFENSE
FAI's offense has averaged 225.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 130.6 rush yards per game. (+73%)
FAI's offense has averaged 1.1 giveaways per game over their last 10 games. Their 21-game average is 2.1 giveaways per game. (-47%)
FAI's offense has averaged 71.0 pass yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 25-game average is 112.6 pass yards per game. (-37%)
FAI's offense has averaged 332.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 243.2 total yards per game. (+37%)
FAI's offense has averaged 6.4 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 22-game average is 4.7 YPC. (+34%)
FAI's offense has averaged 6.7 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 22-game average is 5.4 YPP. (+24%)
FAI's offense has averaged 4.8 YPA over their last 7 games. Their 22-game average is 6.2 YPA. (-22%)
FAI's offense has averaged 19.0 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 15.7 points scored per game. (+21%)
FAI DEFENSE
FAI's defense has averaged 13.0 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 29.0 points allowed per game. (-55%)
FAI's defense has averaged 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 21-game average is 1.5 takeaways per game. (-34%)
FAI's defense has averaged 121.0 rush yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 16-game average is 178.8 rush yards per game. (-32%)
FAI's defense has averaged 5.7 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 16-game average is 8.0 YPC. (-28%)
FAI's defense has averaged 282.5 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 16-game average is 364.2 total yards per game. (-22%)
FAI's defense has averaged 7.4 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 16-game average is 9.5 YPP. (-22%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| FAI | OFFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 7 | 71.0 | 25 | 112.6 | -36.9% | |
| FAI | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 13.0 | 29 | 29.0 | -55.1% | |
| FAI | OFFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 19.0 | 29 | 15.7 | +20.8% | |
| FAI | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 7 | 121.0 | 16 | 178.8 | -32.3% | |
| FAI | OFFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 225.3 | 25 | 130.6 | +72.6% | |
| FAI | DEFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 282.5 | 16 | 364.2 | -22.4% | |
| FAI | OFFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 332.0 | 25 | 243.2 | +36.5% | |
| FAI | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 7 | 1.0 | 21 | 1.5 | -34.4% | |
| FAI | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 10 | 1.1 | 21 | 2.1 | -47.0% | |
| FAI | OFFENSE | team | YPA | last 7 | 4.8 | 22 | 6.2 | -21.6% | |
| FAI | DEFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 5.7 | 16 | 8.0 | -28.5% | |
| FAI | OFFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 6.4 | 22 | 4.7 | +34.3% | |
| FAI | DEFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 7.4 | 16 | 9.5 | -22.3% | |
| FAI | OFFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 6.7 | 22 | 5.4 | +23.9% |
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -7.3 in 2022 to -16.8 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
From the games on file through Oct 23.
