In short: El Rancho Dons high school football (Pico Rivera, CA), 2026 season: 7-2 in the Metro League. Last game: W 25-0 vs Bell Gardens on October 23, 2026. Next: vs El Monte, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The turnover battle could decide El Rancho's next game, against El Monte, and the recent returns favor El Monte. El Rancho committed 1.5 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (4-0), #233 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (3-2), the Dons have committed 2.4 giveaways per game, a 60% rise, #362 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 5 opponents have been softer, averaging 1.4 per game, a #155 defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 1.6 per game, #129 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.4 per game), El Rancho turned it over 66% more than those defenses usually force. Conversely, El Monte's defense has been one of CIF-SS's better units in recent weeks. The Lions have forced 2.2 takeaways per game over their last 5 games (0-5), #41 in CIF-SS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in CIF-SS (1.4 per game on the season, which would rank #242). Against those norms, El Monte forced 62% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #254 in CIF-SS, a lower level of competition. Unless El Rancho's ball security rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to El Monte.
The number to watch when El Rancho meets El Monte is El Rancho's scoring defense. El Rancho allowed 17.2 points per game over its first 6 games (4-2), #105 in CIF-SS through those games. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (3-0), the Dons have allowed 6.7 points per game, a 61% drop, #21 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: El Rancho's last 3 opponents have averaged 22.0 points per game, a #254 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 30.9 points per game, #113 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (22.0 points per game), El Rancho held those offenses 70% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #244 in CIF-SS, well below the first 6 (#175), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, El Monte's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Lions have averaged 7.0 points per game over their last 3 games (0-3), #375 in CIF-SS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in CIF-SS (20.7 points per game on the season, which would rank #158). Against those norms, El Monte scored 66% less than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #245 in CIF-SS, a lower level of competition. On paper, that is a matchup that favors El Rancho. El Rancho is 4-0 this season when it holds opponents under 15, and 3-2 when it doesn't.
NOTES
The biggest shift in El Rancho's season has come in its passing game. El Rancho averaged 6.0 yards per pass attempt (848 yards on 141 attempts) over its first 5 games (4-1), #286 in CIF-SS within that period. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (3-1), the Dons have averaged 7.1 yards per pass attempt (713 yards on 100 attempts), a 19% rise, #216 in CIF-SS across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: El Rancho's last 4 opponents have averaged 6.2 yards per attempt, a #63 pass defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 8.0 yards per attempt, #229 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.2 yards per attempt), El Rancho threw for 15% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. On the season, El Rancho ranks #270 in CIF-SS in passing. El Monte's pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #208 in CIF-SS (7.8 yards per attempt).
El Rancho's ground game from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Dons averaged 6.0 yards per carry (997 yards on 165 rushes) over their first 4 games (4-0), #136 in CIF-SS during those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (3-2), El Rancho has averaged 5.0 yards per carry (724 yards on 145 rushes), a 17% drop, #231 in CIF-SS during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: El Rancho's last 5 opponents have averaged 5.0 yards per carry, a #127 run defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 5.8 yards per carry, #213 for the first 4. On the season, the Dons rank #191 in CIF-SS in rushing. El Monte's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #276 in CIF-SS (6.5 yards per carry).
El Rancho averaged 5.7 yards per play (2,263 yards on 396 snaps) over its first 6 games (4-2), #276 in CIF-SS during that stretch. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (3-0), the Dons have averaged 6.6 yards per play (1,019 yards on 155 snaps), a 15% rise, #176 in CIF-SS over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.2 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.9 yards per play), El Rancho gained 11% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #244 in CIF-SS, well below the first 6 (#175), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, El Rancho ranks #251 in CIF-SS in yards per play. El Monte's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #236 in CIF-SS (6.9 yards per play).
TIDBITS (9 found)
• Club El Rancho has won 3 straight, and a win would make it 4 in a row. The last time they won 4 or more in a row was 2026, a run of 4.
• Club El Rancho has gone 13 straight games committing 1+ turnover (October 17, 2025 through October 23, 2026), going 9-4 over that stretch, a school-record 13 straight in the 22 seasons on record.
• Club El Rancho is 42-0 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points in the games on file (42 such games).
• Player Adrian Lopez has gone 6 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Braylon Morrison has never had a game recording 100+ receiving yards for El Rancho, over a 26-game career on record. His career high is 83, set September 19, 2024 against Fontana (W, 26-20).
• Player Andres Centeno has never had a game recording 100+ receiving yards for El Rancho, over a 21-game career on record. His career high is 97, set September 25, 2026 against Los Altos (L, 18-21).
• Player Andrew Orihuela has gone 25 straight games without running for a touchdown. The last time he ran for a touchdown was October 25, 2024 against Santa Fe (L, 14-21) — 1 rushing TD.
• Player Andrew Orihuela has gone 12 straight games without making 10 or more tackles. The last time he made 10 tackles was October 17, 2025 against Whittier (W, 36-12) — 15 tackles.
• Player Jamie Garcia has gone 9 straight games without intercepting a pass. The last time he intercepted a pass was October 31, 2025 against Santa Fe (W, 29-3) — 1 interception.
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
El Rancho has played a middle-of-the-road schedule in the pool so far (#181 of 405), and what is left is one of the softest slates (#348 of 383): the hard part is behind it.
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#181 of 405
avg opponent rating 5.7 over 9 games · 0 vs top-25 CIF-SS
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#348 of 383
avg opponent rating -17.7 over 1 games · 0 vs top-25
South Hi… W 30-22Santa Fe W 25-0@West Cov… W 17-13Montebel… W 47-28@La Mirada L 18-19@Los Altos L 18-21South El… W 41-20@Schurr W 29-0Bell Gar… W 25-0El Monte
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
MILESTONE WATCH
El Rancho
Andres Centeno needs 64 receiving yards for 500 (averaging 62.3 a game)
Javier Hernandez needs 8 tackles for 75 (averaging 7.4 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 23 game; last updated Oct 25; roster and numbers checked Oct 6.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
2 CIF-SS runner-up finishes · 1 CIF-SS Player of the Year
YEAR
HONOR
2024
CIF-SS Division 11 RUNNER-UP (lost to Portola 31-14)
CIF-SS Offensive Player of the Year (Division 11): RYAN DOMINGUEZ
1988
CIF-SS Div. IV RUNNER-UP (lost to Los Altos 12-0)
Section and state results and Players of the Year: CIF-SS Record Book. League finishes judged from league schedules on file (2022-2025 seasons); earlier league titles are not on file.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 6/9, sacks allowed 7/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 45.7/100 (-24 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 58.5/100 (+8 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 65.6/100 (-26 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 78.7/100 (-64 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (adjusted for the opponents faced).
ER finished 2025 at 6-5. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 35-21 over CALIFORNIA (CALIFORNIA finished 56% that season). Toughest loss: 7-14 to BELL GARDENS (7-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
ER HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• ER averages 6.0+ yards per play (.999), and has won 15 straight when doing so
• ER averages 5.0+ yards per carry (.941), and has won 9 straight when doing so
• ER rushes for 100+ yards (.750), and has won 8 straight when doing so
• ER holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.882), and has won 7 straight when doing so
• ER's offense has committed 1+ turnover in 13 straight games (10/17/2025-10/23/2026), going 9-4 over that stretch.
• ER's defense has forced 1+ turnover in 8 straight games (08/28/2026-10/23/2026), going 6-2 over that stretch.
• ER's defense has averaged 6.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 34-game average is 19.0 points allowed per game. (-65%)
• ER averages 5.7+ yards per play (ER's own median) (.999)
• ER's defense has averaged 57.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 130.9 pass yards per game. (-56%)
• ER's offense has averaged 2.7 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 34-game average is 1.7 giveaways per game. (+56%)
• ER averages 5.1+ yards per carry (ER's own median) (.941)
• ER's defense has averaged 88.8 rush yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 27-game average is 139.3 rush yards per game. (-36%)
• ER holds its opponents under 6.2 yards per attempt (ER's own median) (.923)
• ER holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards
• ER averages 6.3+ yards per attempt (ER's own median) (.882)
• EL RANCHO has pitched a shutout in 2 straight games (10/15/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• EL RANCHO has won by 20+ in 3 straight games (10/1/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• EL RANCHO has committed 2+ turnovers in 3 straight games (10/1/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• EL RANCHO has held the opponent under 14 in 2 straight games (10/15/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
ER's defense has averaged 6.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 34-game average is 19.0 points allowed per game. (-65%)
ER's defense has averaged 57.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 130.9 pass yards per game. (-56%)
ER's defense has averaged 88.8 rush yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 27-game average is 139.3 rush yards per game. (-36%)
ER's defense has averaged 2.8 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 34-game average is 2.1 takeaways per game. (+32%)
ER's defense has averaged 4.8 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 6.9 YPA. (-31%)
ER's defense has averaged 3.5 YPC over their last 7 games. Their 27-game average is 4.7 YPC. (-26%)
ER's defense has averaged 204.5 total yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 27-game average is 270.2 total yards per game. (-24%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where EL RANCHO sits among 399 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 54.8, Defense Grade 69.7.
RUSH YARDS / GAME: EL RANCHO VS THE SECTION
EL RANCHO ranks #26 of 356 section teams in rushing yards per game (249.2) -- a strength worth a look.
EL RANCHO: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 5.6 in 2022 to 8.7 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
