Next: at Marist, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Centennial at Marist.

The number to watch when Centennial meets Marist is Centennial's scoring. Centennial averaged 39.7 points per game over its first 3 games (3-0), #39 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Knights have averaged 20.4 points per game, a 49% drop, #291 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Centennial's last 5 opponents have averaged 27.1 points per game, a #281 scoring defense in section on the season, against 30.8 points per game, #351 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (27.1 points per game), Centennial scored 25% less than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #147 in section, well above the first 3 (#276), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Conversely, Marist's defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The War Eagles have allowed 10.2 points per game over their last 5 games (4-1), #36 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (26.4 points per game on the season, which would rank #207). Against those norms, Marist held those offenses 61% below what they usually score. Unless Centennial's offense rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Marist.

The battle on the ground could decide Centennial's next game, against Marist, and the recent returns favor Marist. Centennial averaged 6.6 yards per carry (550 yards on 83 rushes) over its first 3 games (3-0), #115 in section through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Knights have averaged 4.1 yards per carry (564 yards on 139 rushes), a 39% drop, #349 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Centennial's last 5 opponents have averaged 5.4 yards per carry, a #188 run defense in section on the season, against 6.5 yards per carry, #329 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.4 yards per carry), Centennial ran for 25% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #147 in section, well above the first 3 (#276), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Conversely, Marist's run defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The War Eagles have allowed 2.1 yards per carry (251 yards on 119 rushes) over their last 5 games (4-1), #7 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of rushing attacks in section (5.4 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #240). Against those norms, Marist held those rushing attacks 61% below their usual yards per carry. Unless Centennial's ground game rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Marist.

The biggest worry in Centennial's season has been the direction of its run defense. Centennial allowed 3.7 yards per carry (341 yards on 93 rushes) over its first 3 games (3-0), #69 in section within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Knights have allowed 6.0 yards per carry (693 yards on 116 rushes), a 63% rise, #243 in section across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.8 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.6 yards per carry), Centennial allowed 6% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #147 in section, well above the first 3 (#276), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Centennial ranks #131 in section in run defense. Marist's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #335 in section (4.6 yards per carry).

Centennial's defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Knights allowed 4.8 yards per play (761 yards on 158 snaps) over their first 3 games (3-0), #75 in section during those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), Centennial has allowed 7.6 yards per play (1,444 yards on 191 snaps), a 57% rise, #306 in section during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.4 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.6 yards per play), Centennial allowed 14% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #147 in section, well above the first 3 (#276), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Knights rank #195 in section in yards per play allowed. Marist's offense, #361 of 452 (5.0 yards per play), could be the get-right matchup Centennial needs.

Something changed for Centennial's defense after its first 3 games. Centennial allowed 21.0 points per game over its first 3 games (3-0), #198 in section during that stretch. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Knights have allowed 27.8 points per game, a 32% rise, #271 in section over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Centennial's last 5 opponents have averaged 27.4 points per game, a #187 offense in section on the season, against 22.3 points per game, #276 for the first 3. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #147 in section, well above the first 3 (#276), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Centennial ranks #241 in section in scoring defense. It won't get any easier against Marist, whose offense ranks #97 in section (34.1 points per game).

Centennial's offense has gained fewer yards per snap as the season has worn on. The Knights averaged 7.3 yards per play (1,359 yards on 185 snaps) over their first 4 games (3-1), #140 in section over that timeframe. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), Centennial has averaged 6.6 yards per play (1,124 yards on 171 snaps), an 11% drop, #213 in section over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.2 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.2 yards per play), Centennial gained 9% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #135 in section, well above the first 4 (#253), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Knights rank #168 in section in yards per play. It won't get any easier against Marist, whose defense ranks #41 in section (5.0 yards per play).